Making Narrative Statements to Describe Treatment Effects

Accurately describing treatment effects using plain language and narrative statements is a critical step in communicating research findings to end users. However, the process of developing these narratives has not been historically guided by a specific framework. The Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality Evidence-based Practice Center Program developed guidance for narrative summaries of treatment effects that identifies five constructs. We explicitly identify these constructs to facilitate developing narrative statements: (1) direction of effect, (2) size of effect, (3) clinical importance, (4) statistical significance, and (5) strength or certainty of evidence. These constructs clearly overlap. It may not always be feasible to address all five constructs. Based on context and intended audience, investigators can determine which constructs will be most important to address in narrative statements.

Short-term efficacy of umbilical cord milking in preterm infants: systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

To systematically evaluate short-term efficacy of UCM versus other interventions in preterm infants.

METHODS

Six engines were searched until February 2020 for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) assessing UCM versus immediate cord clamping (ICC), delayed cord clamping (DCC), or no intervention. Primary outcomes were overall mortality, intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH), and patent ductus arteriosus (PDA); secondary outcomes were need for blood transfusion, mean blood pressure (MBP), serum hemoglobin (Hb), and ferritin levels. Random-effects meta-analyses were used.

RESULTS

Fourteen RCTs (n = 1708) were included. In comparison to ICC, UCM did not decrease mortality (RR 0.5, 95% CI 0.2-1.1), IVH (RR 0.7, 95% CI 0.5-1.0), or PDA (RR 1.0, 95% CI 0.7-1.5). However, UCM reduced need of blood transfusion (RR 0.5, 95% CI 0.3-0.9) and increased MBP (MD 2.5 mm Hg, 95% CI 0.5-4.5), Hb (MD 1.2 g/dL, 95% CI 0.8-1.6), and ferritin (MD 151.4 ng/dL, 95% CI 59.5-243.3). In comparison to DCC, UCM did not reduce mortality, IVH, PDA, or need of blood transfusion but increased MBP (MD 3.7, 95% CI 0.6-6.9) and Hb (MD 0.3, 95% CI -0.2-0.8). Only two RCTs had high risk of bias.

CONCLUSIONS

UCM did not decrease short-term clinical outcomes in comparison to ICC or DCC in preterm infants. Intermediate outcomes improved significantly with UCM.

IMPACT

In 14 randomized controlled trials (RCTs), umbilical cord milking (UCM) did not reduce mortality, intraventricular hemorrhage, or patent ductus arteriosus compared to immediate (ICC) or delayed cord clamping (DCC). UCM improved mean blood pressure and hemoglobin levels compared to ICC or DCC. In comparison to ICC, UCM reduced the need for blood transfusion. We updated searches until February 2020, stratified by type of control, and performed subgroup analyses. There was low quality of evidence about clinical efficacy of UCM. Most of RCTs had low risk of bias. UCM cannot be recommended as standard of care for preterm infants.

Probing the Deuteron at Very Large Internal Momenta

We measure ^{2}H(e,e^{'}p)n cross sections at 4-momentum transfers of Q^{2}=4.5±0.5  (GeV/c)^{2} over a range of neutron recoil momenta p_{r}, reaching up to ∼1.0  GeV/c. We obtain data at fixed neutron recoil angles θ_{nq}=35°, 45°, and 75° with respect to the 3-momentum transfer q[over →]. The new data agree well with previous data, which reached p_{r}∼500  MeV/c. At θ_{nq}=35° and 45°, final state interactions, meson exchange currents, and isobar currents are suppressed and the plane wave impulse approximation provides the dominant cross section contribution. We compare the new data to recent theoretical calculations, where we observe a significant discrepancy for recoil momenta p_{r}>700  MeV/c.

Efficacy and harms of remdesivir for the treatment of COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Efficacy and safety of treatments for hospitalized COVID-19 are uncertain. We systematically reviewed efficacy and safety of remdesivir for the treatment of COVID-19.

Methods

Studies evaluating remdesivir in adults with hospitalized COVID-19 were searched in several engines until August 21, 2020. Primary outcomes included all-cause mortality, clinical improvement or recovery, need for invasive ventilation, and serious adverse events (SAEs). Inverse variance random effects meta-analyses were performed.

Results

We included four randomized controlled trials (RCTs) (n = 2296) [two vs. placebo (n = 1299) and two comparing 5-day vs. 10-day regimens (n = 997)], and two case series (n = 88). Studies used intravenous remdesivir 200mg the first day and 100mg for four or nine more days. One RCT (n = 236) was stopped early due to AEs; the other three RCTs reported outcomes between 11 and 15 days. Time to recovery was decreased by 4 days with remdesivir vs. placebo in one RCT (n = 1063), and by 0.8 days with 5-days vs. 10-days of therapy in another RCT (n = 397). Clinical improvement was better for 5-days regimen vs. standard of care in one RCT (n = 600). Remdesivir did not decrease all-cause mortality (RR 0.71, 95%CI 0.39 to 1.28, I² = 43%) and need for invasive ventilation (RR 0.57, 95%CI 0.23 to 1.42, I² = 60%) vs. placebo at 14 days but had fewer SAEs; 5-day decreased need for invasive ventilation and SAEs vs. 10-day in one RCT (n = 397). No differences in all-cause mortality or SAEs were seen among 5-day, 10-day and standard of care. There were some concerns of bias to high risk of bias in RCTs. Heterogeneity between studies could be due to different severities of disease, days of therapy before outcome determination, and how ordinal data was analyzed.

Conclusions

There is paucity of adequately powered and fully reported RCTs evaluating effects of remdesivir in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Until stronger evidence emerges, we cannot conclude that remdesivir is efficacious for treating COVID-19.

Diagnostic accuracy of Xpert MTB/RIF for tuberculous meningitis: systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

This systematic review evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of Xpert MTB/RIF to detect tuberculous meningitis (TBM).

METHODS

PubMed and five other databases were systematically searched through March 2019. All studies evaluating diagnostic accuracy of Xpert MTB/RIF on cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples were included. Reference standards were definitive or definite plus probable TBM. The quality of studies was assessed by the QUADAS-2 tool. We performed bivariate random-effects meta-analysis and calculated summary diagnostic statistics.

RESULTS

We identified 30 studies (n = 3972 participants), including 5 cohort studies and 25 cross-sectional studies. Reference standards were definite TB (n = 28 studies) or definite plus probable TBM (n = 6 studies). The pooled Xpert MTB/RIF sensitivity was 85% (95% CI, 70-93%), and specificity was 98% (95% CI, 97-99%) with a negative likelihood ratio of 0.15 (95% CI, 0.04-0.27) for definite TBM. For probable TBM cases, pooled sensitivity was 81% (95% CI, 66-90%), and specificity was 99% (95% CI, 97-99%). For both reference standard types, meta-analyses showed a C-statistic area under the curve of 0.98. The QUADAS-2 tool revealed low risk of bias as well as low concerns regarding applicability. Methodological heterogeneity was high among studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Xpert MTB/RIF showed high accuracy for TBM diagnosis, but a negative Xpert MTB/RIF test does not rule out TBM. Repeat Xpert testing may be necessary. In clinical practice, Xpert MTB/RIF adds speed and sensitivity when compared to classic TBM diagnostic methods or previous commercial nucleic acid amplification techniques. More studies and better strategies for rapidly confirming a diagnosis of TBM in children are urgently needed.

Developing Criteria and Associated Instructions for Consistent and Useful Quality Improvement Study Data Extraction for Health Systems

BACKGROUND

The Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) could devote resources to collate and assess quality improvement studies to support learning health systems (LHS) but there is no reliable data on the consistency of data extraction for important criteria.

METHODS

We identified quality improvement studies and evaluated the consistency of data extraction from two experienced independent reviewers at three time points: baseline, first revision (where explicit instructions for each criterion were created), and final revision (where the instructions were revised). Six investigators looked at the data extracted by the two systematic reviewers and determined the extent of similarity on a scale of 0 to 10 (where 0 represented no similarity and 10 perfect similarity). There were 42 assessments for baseline, 42 assessments for the first revision, and 42 assessments for the final revision. We asked two LHS participants to assess the relative value of our criteria.

RESULTS

The consistency of extraction improved from 1.17 ± 1.85 at baseline to 6.07 ± 2.76 after revision 1 (P < 0.001) and to 6.81 ± 1.94 out of 10 for the final revision (P < 0.001). However, the final revision was not significantly improved over the first revision (P = 0.14). One key informant rated the difficulty in finding and using quality improvement studies a 6 (moderately difficult) while the other a 4 (moderately difficult). When asked how valuable it would be if AHRQ found and collated the demographic information about the health systems and the interventions used in published quality improvement studies, they rated it a 9 (highly valuable) and a 6 (moderately valuable).

CONCLUSION

Creating explicit instructions for extracting data for quality improvement studies helps enhance the consistency of data extraction. This is important because it is difficult for LHS to vet these quality improvement studies on their own and they would value AHRQ's support in that regard.

Correction to: Association of statin use and clinical outcomes in heart failure patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via the original article.

Hydroxychloroquine or Chloroquine for Treatment or Prophylaxis of COVID-19: A Living Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine have antiviral effects in vitro against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).

PURPOSE

To summarize evidence about the benefits and harms of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine for the treatment or prophylaxis of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

DATA SOURCES

PubMed (via MEDLINE), EMBASE (via Ovid), Scopus, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, bioRxiv, Preprints, ClinicalTrials.gov, World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, and the Chinese Clinical Trials Registry from 1 December 2019 until 8 May 2020.

STUDY SELECTION

Studies in any language reporting efficacy or safety outcomes from hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine use in any setting in adults or children with suspected COVID-19 or at risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection.

DATA EXTRACTION

Independent, dually performed data extraction and quality assessments.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Four randomized controlled trials, 10 cohort studies, and 9 case series assessed treatment effects of the medications, but no studies evaluated prophylaxis. Evidence was conflicting and insufficient regarding the effect of hydroxychloroquine on such outcomes as all-cause mortality, progression to severe disease, clinical symptoms, and upper respiratory virologic clearance with antigen testing. Several studies found that patients receiving hydroxychloroquine developed a QTc interval of 500 ms or greater, but the proportion of patients with this finding varied among the studies. Two studies assessed the efficacy of chloroquine; 1 trial, which compared higher-dose (600 mg twice daily for 10 days) with lower-dose (450 mg twice daily on day 1 and once daily for 4 days) therapy, was stopped owing to concern that the higher dose therapy increased lethality and QTc interval prolongation. An observational study that compared adults with COVID-19 receiving chloroquine phosphate, 500 mg once or twice daily, with patients not receiving chloroquine found minor fever resolution and virologic clearance benefits with chloroquine.

LIMITATION

There were few controlled studies, and control for confounding was inadequate in observational studies.

CONCLUSION

Evidence on the benefits and harms of using hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine to treat COVID-19 is very weak and conflicting.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.

Safety and efficacy of drug eluting stents vs bare metal stents in patients with atrial fibrillation: A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of drug-eluting stents (DES) vs bare-metal stents (BMS) in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients.

METHODS

We systematically searched 5 engines until May 2019 for cohort studies and randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Primary outcomes were major bleeding and major adverse cardiac events (MACE) including cardiac death, myocardial infarction, target vessel revascularization (TVR) or stent thrombosis. Effects of inverse variance random meta-analyses were described with relative risks (RR) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI). We also stratified analyses by type (triple [TAT] vs dual [DAT]) and duration (short-vs long-term) of antithrombotic therapy.

RESULTS

Ten studies (3 RCTs; 7 cohorts) including 10,353 patients (DES: 59.6%) were identified. DES did not show higher risk of major bleeding than BMS (5.6% vs 6.9%, RR 1.07; 95%CI, 0.89-1.28, p = 0.47; I² = 0%) or MACE (12% vs 13.6%; RR 0.96; 95%CI 0.81-1.13, p = 0.60; I² = 44%). Although, DES almost decreased TVR risk (6.4% vs 8.4%, RR 0.78; 95%CI, 0.61-1.01, p = 0.06; I² = 15%). Stratified analyses by type and duration of antithrombotic therapy showed no differences in major bleeding or MACE between both types of stents. In DES, long-term TAT showed higher major bleeding risk than long-term DAT (7.7% vs 4.7%, RR 1.48, 95%CI 1.08-2.03, p = 0.01; I² = 12%). For both types of stents, MACE risk was similar between TAT and DAT.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with AF undergoing PCI, DES had similar rate of major bleeding and MACE than BMS. DAT seems to be a safer antithrombotic therapy compared with TAT.

Efficacy and safety of bempedoic acid for the treatment of hypercholesterolemia: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Bempedoic acid is a first-in-class lipid-lowering drug recommended by guidelines for the treatment of hypercholesterolemia. Our objective was to estimate its average effect on plasma lipids in humans and its safety profile.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We carried out a systematic review and meta-analysis of phase II and III randomized controlled trials on bempedoic acid (PROSPERO: CRD42019129687). PubMed (Medline), Scopus, Google Scholar, and Web of Science databases were searched, with no language restriction, from inception to 5 August 2019. We included 10 RCTs (n = 3,788) comprising 26 arms (active arm [n = 2,460]; control arm [n = 1,328]). Effect sizes for changes in lipids and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) serum concentration were expressed as mean differences (MDs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). For safety analyses, odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs were calculated using the Mantel-Haenszel method. Bempedoic acid significantly reduced total cholesterol (MD -14.94%; 95% CI -17.31%, -12.57%; p < 0.001), non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (MD -18.17%; 95% CI -21.14%, -15.19%; p < 0.001), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (MD -22.94%; 95% CI -26.63%, -19.25%; p < 0.001), low-density lipoprotein particle number (MD -20.67%; 95% CI -23.84%, -17.48%; p < 0.001), apolipoprotein B (MD -15.18%; 95% CI -17.41%, -12.95%; p < 0.001), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (MD -5.83%; 95% CI -6.14%, -5.52%; p < 0.001), high-density lipoprotein particle number (MD -3.21%; 95% CI -6.40%, -0.02%; p = 0.049), and hsCRP (MD -27.03%; 95% CI -31.42%, -22.64%; p < 0.001). Bempedoic acid did not significantly modify triglyceride level (MD -1.51%; 95% CI -3.75%, 0.74%; p = 0.189), very-low-density lipoprotein particle number (MD 3.79%; 95% CI -9.81%, 17.39%; p = 0.585), and apolipoprotein A-1 (MD -1.83%; 95% CI -5.23%, 1.56%; p = 0.290). Treatment with bempedoic acid was positively associated with an increased risk of discontinuation of treatment (OR 1.37; 95% CI 1.06, 1.76; p = 0.015), elevated serum uric acid (OR 3.55; 95% CI 1.03, 12.27; p = 0.045), elevated liver enzymes (OR 4.28; 95% CI 1.34, 13.71; p = 0.014), and elevated creatine kinase (OR 3.79; 95% CI 1.06, 13.51; p = 0.04), though it was strongly associated with a decreased risk of new onset or worsening diabetes (OR 0.59; 95% CI 0.39, 0.90; p = 0.01). The main limitation of this meta-analysis is related to the relatively small number of individuals involved in the studies, which were often short or middle term in length.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show that bempedoic acid has favorable effects on lipid profile and hsCRP levels and an acceptable safety profile. Further well-designed studies are needed to explore its longer-term safety.

The Role of Suppressing Inflammation in the Treatment of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease

OBJECTIVE

To review the 3 anti-inflammatory drugs, canakinumab, colchicine, and methotrexate, that have been investigated in major clinical trials for treating patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD).

DATA SOURCES

An Ovid MEDLINE literature search (1946 to February 2, 2020) was performed using search strategy [(C-reactive protein OR ASCVD OR cardiac disease OR cardiovascular disease) AND (canakinumab OR methotrexate OR Colchicine)]. Additional references were identified from the citations.

STUDY SELECTION AND DATA EXTRACTION

English-language studies assessing the impact of these 3 drugs on inflammation as measured by high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) or the association with reducing ASCVD events were included.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Canakinumab and colchicine significantly reduced ASCVD events in high-risk patients with median baseline hs-CRP levels of ~4.0 mg/L. Methotrexate was ineffective at reducing ASCVD events in high-risk patients, but their baseline hs-CRP concentrations were a median of <2 mg/L. In subgroup analyses of the Canakinumab Antiinflammatory Thrombosis Outcome Study (CANTOS), patients whose baseline hs-CRP was 2 to 4 mg/L had benefits from canakinumab therapy similar to those with baseline levels exceeding 4.

RELEVANCE TO PATIENT CARE AND CLINICAL PRACTICE

Even with the best current drug therapies, patients with underlying inflammation can benefit from the addition of both colchicine and canakinumab to further lower CV events. Given its cost, colchicine is a more attractive option.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients at high risk of recurrent cardiovascular disease events with an hs-CRP of 2 mg/L or greater can reduce the occurrence of ASCVD events with canakinumab or colchicine therapy. Colchicine is the preferable option, in particular for those with myocardial infarction, given its more reasonable cost.

Possible association between dysnatremias and mortality during hospitalization in patients undergoing acute hemodialysis: analysis from a Peruvian retrospective cohort

Objective:

To evaluate the association between dysnatremias or dyschloremias and mortality during hospitalization in patients with acute kidney injury (AKI) or chronic kidney disease (CKD) undergoing acute hemodialysis.

Methods:

We carried out a retrospective cohort study on adult patients undergoing acute hemodialysis with AKI or CKD diagnosis at a public hospital in Lima, Peru. Dysnatremias were categorized as hyponatremia (Na < 135mmol/L) or hypernatremia (Na > 145mmol/L), and dyschloremias were defined as hypochloremia (Cl < 98 mmol/L) or hyperchloremia (Cl > 109mmol/L). The outcome of interest was mortality during hospitalization. We performed generalized lineal Poisson family models with bias-corrected and accelerated non-parametric bootstrap to estimate the risk ratios at crude (RR) and adjusted analysis (aRR) by gender, age, HCO3 (for all patients) and Liaño score (only for AKI) with CI95%.

Results:

We included 263 patients (mean age: 54.3 years, females: 43%): 191 with CKD and 72 with AKI. Mortality was higher in patients with AKI (59.7%) than in patients with CKD (14.1%). In overall, patients with hypernatremia had a higher mortality during hospitalization compared to those who had normal sodium values (aRR: 1.82, 95% CI: 1.17-2.83); patients with hyponatremia did not have different mortality (aRR: 0.19, 95% CI: 0.69-2.04). We also found that hyperchloremia (aRR: 1.35, 95% CI: 0.83-2.18) or hypochloremia (aRR: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.30-14.78) did not increase mortality in comparison to normal chloride values. No association between dysnatremias or dyschloremias and mortality during hospitalization was found in CKD and AKI subgroups.

Conclusions:

In our exploratory analysis, only hypernatremia was associated with mortality during hospitalization among patients with AKI or CKD undergoing acute hemodialysis.

Completeness of reporting of case reports in high-impact medical journals

INTRODUCTION

Case reports represent a relevant, timely and important study design in advancing medical scientific knowledge. They allow integration between clinical practice and clinical epidemiology. We aimed to assess the completeness of reporting (COR) of case reports published in high-impact journals. We assessed the COR of case reports using the CARE guidelines.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We selected three high-impact journals and one journal specialized in publishing case reports, in which we included all published case reports from July to December 2017. Median COR score was calculated per study, and CORs were compared between journals with and without endorsement of CARE guidelines.

RESULTS

One hundred and fourteen case reports were included. Overall median COR was 81%, IQR [63%-96%]. Sections with the highest COR (84%-100%) were patient information, clinical findings, therapeutic intervention, follow-up and outcomes, discussion and informed consent. Sections with the lowest COR were title, keywords, timeline and patient perspective (2%-34%). COR was higher in journals endorsing in comparison to those not endorsing CARE guidelines (77% vs 65%), respectively, median difference = -12% 95% CI [-16% to -7%].

DISCUSSION

Overall completeness of case reports in included journals is high especially for CARE endorsing and dedicated journals but reporting of some items could be improved. Ongoing and future evaluations of endorsement status of reporting guidelines in medical journals should be assessed to improve completeness and reduce waste of clinical research, including case reports.

Four-year incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with atherosclerosis and atrial fibrillation

Background

There is a paucity of contemporary data assessing the implications of atrial fibrillation (AF) on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with or at high‐risk for atherosclerotic disease managed in routine practice.

Hypothesis

We sought to evaluate the 4‐year incidence of MACE in patients with or at risk of atherosclerotic disease in the presence of AF.

Methods

Using US MarketScan data, we identified AF patients ≥45 years old with billing codes indicating established coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, or peripheral artery disease or the presence of ≥3 risk factors for atherosclerotic disease from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2013 with a minimum of 4‐years of available follow‐up. We calculated the 4‐year incidence of MACE (cardiovascular death or hospitalization with a primary billing code for myocardial infarction or ischemic stroke). Patients were further stratified by CHA₂DS₂‐VASc score and oral anticoagulation (OAC) use at baseline.

Results

We identified 625,951 patients with 4‐years of follow‐up, of which 77,752 (12.4%) had comorbid AF. The median (25%, 75% range) CHA₂DS₂‐VASc score was 4 (3, 5) and 64% of patients received an OAC at baseline. The incidence of MACE increased as CHA₂DS₂‐VASc scores increased (P‐interaction<.0001 for all). AF patients receiving an OAC were less likely to experience MACE (8.9% vs 11.6%, P < .0001) including ischemic stroke (5.4% vs 6.7%, P < .0001).

Conclusion

Comorbid AF carries a substantial risk of MACE in patients with or at risk of atherosclerotic disease. MACE risk increases with higher CHA₂DS₂‐VASc scores and is more likely in patients without OAC.

In-hospital mortality among incident hemodialysis older patients in Peru

BACKGROUND

Understanding the pattern of mortality linked to end stage renal disease (ESRD) is important given the increasing ageing population in low- and middle-income countries.

METHODS

We analyzed older patients with ESRD with incident hemodialysis, from January 2012 to August 2017 in one large general hospital in Peru. Individual and health system-related variables were analyzed using Generalized Linear Models (GLM) to estimate their association with in-hospital all-cause mortality. Relative risk (RR) with their 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated.

RESULTS

We evaluated 312 patients; mean age 69 years, 93.6% started hemodialysis with a transient central venous catheter, 1.7% had previous hemodialysis indication and 24.7% died during hospital stay. The mean length of stay was 16.1 days (SD 13.5). In the adjusted multivariate models, we found higher in-hospital mortality among those with encephalopathy (aRR 1.85, 95% CI 1.21-2.82 vs. without encephalopathy) and a lower in-hospital mortality among those with eGFR ≤7 mL/min (aRR 0.45, 95% CI 0.31-0.67 vs. eGFR>7 mL/min).

CONCLUSIONS

There is a high in-hospital mortality among older hemodialysis patients in Peru. The presence of uremic encephalopathy was associated with higher mortality and a lower estimated glomerular filtration rate with lower mortality.

Incidence and Predictors of Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Established Atherosclerotic Disease or Multiple Risk Factors

Background

There is a paucity of contemporary data estimating the incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with established atherosclerotic disease or multiple risk factors managed in routine practice. We estimated 1‐ and 4‐year incidences of MACE and the association between MACE and vascular beds affected in these patients.

Methods and Results

Using US IBM MarketScan data from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2017, we identified patients ≥45 years old with established coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral artery disease, or the presence of ≥3 risk factors for atherosclerosis during 2013 with a minimum of 4 years of follow‐up. We calculated 1‐ and 4‐year incidences of MACE (cardiovascular death or hospitalization for myocardial infarction or ischemic stroke). A Cox proportional hazards regression model adjusted for age and sex was used to evaluate the association between vascular bed number/location(s) affected and MACE. We identified 1 302 856 patients with established atherosclerotic disease or risk factors for atherosclerosis. Coronary artery disease was present in 16.9% of patients, cerebrovascular disease in 7.6%, peripheral artery disease in 13.6%, and risk factors for atherosclerosis only in 66.0%. The 1‐ and 4‐year incidences of MACE were 1.4% and 6.9%, respectively. At 4 years, MACE was more frequent in patients with atherosclerotic disease in a single (hazard ratio=1.51, 95% CI=1.48–1.55), 2‐(hazard ratio=2.35, 95% CI=2.27–2.44), or all 3 vascular beds (hazard ratio=3.30, 95% CI=2.97–3.68) compared with having risk factors for atherosclerosis.

Conclusions

Patients with established atherosclerotic disease or who have multiple risk factors and are treated in contemporary, routine practice carry a substantial risk for MACE at 1‐ and 4‐ years of follow‐up. MACE risk was shown to vary based on the number and location of vascular beds involved.