Survival of patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia before and after the introduction of chemoimmunotherapy in Germany

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is the most common leukemia of adults in western countries. Therapy is indicated in symptomatic and advanced stages and has changed fundamentally since 2010 when rituximab, an anti-CD20 antibody, has been approved for treatment of CLL. Until then therapy had been based on chemotherapy drugs. This study investigates whether survival in CLL patients improved at the population level after the introduction of combined chemoimmunotherapy. Data from the cancer registry North-Rhine Westphalia was used to calculate relative survival (RS) by applying period analyses. Age-standardized 5-year RS increased from 79% in 1998–2002 (75% in 2003–2007) to 81% in the calendar period 2008–2012 and 88% in 2013–2016 for men and continuously from 71% in 1998–2002 to 92% in 2013–2016 for women. In CLL patients aged 15–69 years 5-year RS increased from 83% to 90% for men and from 82% to 94% for women after adding an anti-CD20-antibody to chemotherapy while in the older age group of 70–79-year-old CLL patients an increase by 20 percentage points was observed. These findings show marked improvements in the survival of CLL patients at the population level subsequently to the approval of anti-CD 20 antibodies like rituximab, ofatumumab or obinutuzumab for CLL treatment.

[SARS-CoV-2 IgG seroprevalence in personnel of the extraclinical fight against the COVID-19 pandemic]

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The SARS-CoV‑2 pandemic and the different manifestations of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are a major challenge for health systems worldwide. Medical personnel have a special role in containing the pandemic. The aim of the study was to investigate the SARS-CoV‑2 IgG antibody prevalence in extraclinical personnel depending on their operational area in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

On May 28 and 29, 2020, serum samples were taken from 732 of 1183 employees (61.9%) of the professional fire brigade and aid organizations in the city area and tested for SARS-CoV‑2 IgG antibodies. The employees were divided into four categories according to their type of participation. category 1: decentralized PCR sampling teams, category 2: rescue service, category 3: fire protection, category 4: situation center. Some employees participated in more than one operational area.

RESULTS

SARS-CoV‑2 IgG antibodies were detected in 8 of 732 serum samples. This corresponds to a prevalence of 1.1%. A previous COVID-19 infection was known in 3 employees. In order to make a separate assessment of the other employees possible and to diagnose unknown infections, a corrected collective of 729 employees with 6 SARS-CoV‑2 antibody detection was considered separately. The prevalence in the corrected collective is 0.82%. After subdividing the collective into areas of activity, the prevalence was low (1: 0.77%, 2: 0.9%, 3: 1.00%, 4: 1.58%).

CONCLUSIONS

The seroprevalence of SARS-CoV‑2 in the study collective is low at 1.1% and 0.82%, respectively. There is an increased seroprevalence in operational areas with a lower risk of virus exposure in comparison to operational areas with a higher risk.

Hospitalization and Morbidity Rates After Pediatric Traumatic Brain Injury: A Nation-Wide Population-Based Analysis

Background: Even though traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in children around the globe, population-based and nation-wide data to assess the burden of TBI is scarce. Methods:Based on diagnosis related groups from nation-wide hospital data, we extracted data on all TBI-related hospitalizations in children <18 years in Germany between 2014 and 2018. We calculated crude, age-specific and standardized incidence rates for hospitalizations, imaging, intracranial injury, neurosurgery, and mortality. Results:Out of 10.2 million hospitalizations, we identified 458,844 cases with TBI as primary or secondary diagnosis, resulting in a crude incidence rate of 687/100,000 child years (CY). Age-specific rates of computed tomography were below 30/100,000 CY until the age of 10 years and increased to 162/100,000 CY until 17 years of age. Intracranial injury was diagnosed in 2.7%, neurosurgery was performed in 0.7% of patients, and 0.7% were mechanically ventilated. Mortality was 0.67/100,000 CY (0.1%). Conclusions:Despite substantial hospitalization rates for pediatric TBI in Germany, the rates of imaging, the need for mechanical ventilation, neurosurgery and mortality were overall very low. Reasons for hospitalization and measures to reduce unnecessary admissions warrant further investigation.

Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance is associated with prostate cancer in a population-based cohort study

Register-based studies indicate a possible association of monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) and prostate cancer (PCa). Aim of the present study was to investigate the relationship between MGUS and PCa considering potentially shared risk factors. Data from the prospective population-based Heinz Nixdorf Recall cohort study of 2.385 men (age 45–85) were analyzed. MGUS was determined at three points in time; cases of cancer were assessed annually. Potentially shared risk factors were assessed at baseline. Hazard ratios (HR), adjusted for age and educational attainment, and corresponding 95%-confidence intervals (95%-CI) were calculated. 157 cases of MGUS and 143 incident cases of PCa were detected. Of 19 participants diagnosed with both, MGUS and incident PCa, only in one case MGUS did not clearly occur before PCa. MGUS was associated with PCa presenting a HR of 2.00 (95%-CI: 1.23–3.25). Stratified by isotype, IgM-MGUS showed the strongest association with PCa. There was no relevant change of the effect estimate when adjusting for potentially shared risk factors. We were able to give supporting evidence for an association between MGUS and PCa and pointed out its temporality. There was no indication that the observed association is due to shared risk factors. The present study indicated that different isotypes of MGUS differ in the strength of the effect on PCa-risk. Based on these findings, future studies investigating the pathophysiological background of the association will be needed.

Excess mortality due to Covid-19? A comparison of total mortality in 2020 with total mortality in 2016 to 2019 in Germany, Sweden and Spain

INTRODUCTION

Excess mortality is a suitable indicator of health consequences of COVID-19 because death from any cause is clearly defined contrary to death from Covid-19. We compared the overall mortality in 2020 with the overall mortality in 2016 to 2019 in Germany, Sweden and Spain. Contrary to other studies, we also took the demographic development between 2016 and 2020 and increasing life expectancy into account.

METHODS

Using death and population figures from the EUROSTAT database, we estimated weekly and cumulative Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the year 2020. We applied two approaches to calculate weekly numbers of death expected in 2020: first, we used mean weekly mortality rates from 2016 to 2019 as expected mortality rates for 2020, and, second, to consider increasing life expectancy, we calculated expected mortality rates for 2020 by extrapolation from mortality rates from 2016 to 2019.

RESULTS

In the first approach, the cumulative SMRs show that in Germany and Sweden there was no or little excess mortality in 2020 (SMR = 0.976 (95% CI: 0.974-0.978), and 1.030 (1.023-1.036), respectively), while in Spain the excess mortality was 14.8% (1.148 (1.144-1.151)). In the second approach, the corresponding SMRs for Germany and Sweden increased to 1.009 (1.007-1.011) and 1.083 (1.076-1.090), respectively, whereas results for Spain were virtually unchanged.

CONCLUSION

In 2020, there was barely any excess mortality in Germany for both approaches. In Sweden, excess mortality was 3% without, and 8% with consideration of increasing life expectancy.

High Depressive Symptoms in Previously Undetected Diabetes - 10-Year Follow-Up Results of the Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study

Aim

To determine the 10-year cumulative incidence of high depressive symptoms in people with diagnosed and, in particular, previously undetected diabetes compared to those without diabetes in a population-based cohort study in Germany.

Materials and Methods

We included 2813 participants (52.9% men, mean age (SD) 58.9 (7.7) years, 7.1% diagnosed diabetes, 5.6% previously undetected diabetes) from the Heinz Nixdorf Recall study. We calculated the odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) using multiple logistic regression analyses for diagnosed and undetected diabetes.

Results

Cumulative 10-year incidences (95%-CI) of high depressive symptoms in participants with diagnosed diabetes, previously undetected diabetes, and without diabetes were 15.4% (10.7–21.2), 10.1% (5.9–15.9), and 12.4% (11.1–13.8), respectively. Age-sex-adjusted ORs were 1.51 (1.01–2.28) in participants with diagnosed diabetes compared to those without, 1.40 (0.92–2.12) after adjustment for BMI, physical activity, education, and smoking, and 1.33 (0.87–2.02) after further adjustment for stroke and myocardial infarction. ORs in participants with previously undetected diabetes were 0.96 (0.56–1.65), 0.85 (0.49–1.47), and 0.85 (0.49–1.48), respectively, and lower in men than in women.

Conclusion

As expected, we found an increased odds of developing high depressive symptoms in participants with diagnosed diabetes. However, the odds ratios decreased when we considered comorbidities and other covariates. Interestingly, in participants with previously undetected diabetes, the odds was not increased, even 10 years after detection of diabetes. These results support the hypothesis that high depressive symptoms develop due to diabetes-related burdens and comorbidities and not due to hyperglycemia or hyperinsulinemia.

Impact of a preceding radiotherapy on the outcome of immune checkpoint inhibition in metastatic melanoma: a multicenter retrospective cohort study of the DeCOG

Background

Immune checkpoint inhibition (ICI) is an essential treatment option in melanoma. Its outcome may be improved by a preceding radiation of metastases. This study aimed to investigate the impact of a preceding radiotherapy on the clinical outcome of ICI treatment.

Methods

This multicenter retrospective cohort study included patients who received anti-cytotoxic T-lymphocyte-associated protein 4 (CTLA-4) or anti-programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1) ICI with or without preceding radiotherapy for unresectable metastatic melanoma. ICI therapy outcome was measured as best overall response (BOR), progression-free (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Response and survival analyses were adjusted for confounders identified by directed acyclic graphs. Adjusted survival curves were calculated using inverse probability treatment weighting.

Results

835 patients who received ICI (anti-CTLA-4, n=596; anti-PD-1, n=239) at 16 centers were analyzed, whereof 235 received a preceding radiotherapy of metastatic lesions in stage IV disease. The most frequent organ sites irradiated prior to ICI therapy were brain (51.1%), lymph nodes (17.9%) and bone (17.9%). After multivariable adjustment for confounders, no relevant differences in ICI therapy outcome were observed between cohorts with and without preceding radiotherapy. BOR was 8.7% vs 13.0% for anti-CTLA-4 (adjusted relative risk (RR)=1.47; 95% CI=0.81 to 2.65; p=0.20), and 16.5% vs 25.3% for anti-PD-1 (RR=0.93; 95% CI=0.49 to 1.77; p=0.82). Survival probabilities were similar for cohorts with and without preceding radiotherapy, for anti-CTLA-4 (PFS, adjusted HR=1.02, 95% CI=0.86 to 1.25, p=0.74; OS, HR=1.08, 95% CI=0.81 to 1.44, p=0.61) and for anti-PD-1 (PFS, HR=0.84, 95% CI=0.57 to 1.26, p=0.41; OS, HR=0.73, 95% CI=0.43 to 1.25, p=0.26). Patients who received radiation last before ICI (n=137) revealed no better survival than those who had one or more treatment lines between radiation and start of ICI (n=86). In 223 patients with brain metastases, we found no relevant survival differences on ICI with and without preceding radiotherapy.

Conclusions

This study detected no evidence for a relevant favorable impact of a preceding radiotherapy on anti-CTLA-4 or anti-PD-1 ICI treatment outcome in metastatic melanoma.

Family aggregation of sleep characteristics: Results of the Heinz Nixdorf Recall and the Multi-Generation Study

Introduction

Poor sleep is a risk factor for adverse health events. For health prevention, it may be helpful to know whether poor sleep or sleep disorders in individuals are associated with sleep problems in their partners or children.

Methods

In the MultiGeneration Study (MGS, conducted from 2013 to 2016), 1237 partners (aged 27 to 90 years) and 1660 adult children (aged 18 to 66 years) of index persons were recruited. Index persons are participants of the Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study, a population-based cohort study in the Ruhr area (study start 1999–2001, 4841 participants aged 45–75 years). We used two analysis populations: one with 1181 index persons whose partners were in MGS, and one with 1083 index persons with at least one adult child in MGS. Sleep characteristics were assessed using questionnaires (including the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index). The exposure was the presence of a sleep characteristic of the index subject.

Results

Children showed the investigated sleep characteristics more often if these were also present in their parent (e.g., RR (relative risk) = 1.28 (95% CI: 1.06–1.55) for poor sleep quality). In partners, strong associations were observed for rising times and napping, but only weak associations for snoring, poor sleep quality and sleep disorders. Snoring of the bed partner is a risk factor for poor sleep (e.g., RR = 1.67 (0.91–3.07) for difficulties falling asleep).

Conclusion

Aggregation is observed for many sleep characteristics in people living in partnerships as well as in parents and their adult children.

Factors Influencing the Adjuvant Therapy Decision: Results of a Real-World Multicenter Data Analysis of 904 Melanoma Patients

Adjuvant treatment of melanoma patients with immune-checkpoint inhibition (ICI) and targeted therapy (TT) significantly improved recurrence-free survival. This study investigates the real-world situation of 904 patients from 13 German skin cancer centers with an indication for adjuvant treatment since the approval of adjuvant ICI and TT. From adjusted log-binomial regression models, we estimated relative risks for associations between various influence factors and treatment decisions (adjuvant therapy yes/no, TT vs. ICI in BRAF mutant patients). Of these patients, 76.9% (95% CI 74-80) opted for a systemic adjuvant treatment. The probability of starting an adjuvant treatment was 26% lower in patients >65 years (RR 0.74, 95% CI 68-80). The most common reasons against adjuvant treatment given by patients were age (29.4%, 95% CI 24-38), and fear of adverse events (21.1%, 95% CI 16-28) and impaired quality of life (11.9%, 95% CI 7-16). Of all BRAF-mutated patients who opted for adjuvant treatment, 52.9% (95% CI 47-59) decided for ICI. Treatment decision for TT or ICI was barely associated with age, gender and tumor stage, but with comorbidities and affiliated center. Shortly after their approval, adjuvant treatments have been well accepted by physicians and patients. Age plays a decisive role in the decision for adjuvant treatment, while pre-existing autoimmune disease and regional differences influence the choice between TT or ICI.

Restless Leg Syndrome Is Underdiagnosed in Hereditary Hemorrhagic Telangiectasia-Results of an Online Survey

BACKGROUND

Recurrent bleeding in patients with hereditary hemorrhagic telangiectasia (HHT) can lead to chronic iron deficiency anemia (CIDA). Existing research points to CIDA as a contributing factor in restless leg syndrome (RLS). The association between HHT-related symptoms and the prevalence of RLS was analyzed.

METHODS

An online survey was conducted whereby the standardized RLS-Diagnostic Index questionnaire (RLS-DI) was supplemented with 82 additional questions relating to HHT.

RESULTS

A total of 474 persons responded to the survey and completed responses for questions pertaining to RLS (mean age: 56 years, 68% females). Per RLS-DI criteria, 48 patients (48/322, 15%; 95% confidence interval (CI): 11-19%) self-identified as having RLS. An analysis of physician-diagnosed RLS and the RLS-DI revealed a relative frequency of RLS in HHT patients of 22% (95% CI: 18-27%). In fact, 8% (25/322; 95% CI: 5-11%) of the HHT patients had RLS which had not been diagnosed before. This equals 35% of the total amount of patients diagnosed with RLS (25/72; 95% CI: 25-46%). HHT patients with a history of gastrointestinal bleeding (prevalence ratio (PR) = 2.70, 95% CI: 1.53-4.77), blood transfusions (PR = 1.90, 95% CI: 1.27-2.86), or iron intake (PR = 2.05, 95% CI: 0.99-4.26) had an increased prevalence of RLS.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data suggest that RLS is underdiagnosed in HHT. In addition, physicians should assess CIDA parameters for possible iron supplementation.

Trail Making Test Normative Data for the German Older Population

OBJECTIVE

We provide normative data for the Trail Making Test (TMT)-A and B and the derived scores B - A and B/A, for the German general population aged 57-84 years.

METHODS

Data were derived from the third examination of the population-based Heinz Nixdorf Recall study. We excluded participants with a history of dementia or stroke, a depression score above cutoff (CES-D Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale score ≥ 18), or mild cognitive impairment according to a neurocognitive test battery. The normative sample (n = 2,182) was stratified by age, using the interval superposition approach, and by three levels of educational attainment (up to 10 years of schooling; >10 years of schooling; and university degree).

RESULTS

We tabulated test performance scores at percentage rank thresholds 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 50, 75, and 90. In multiple linear regression, TMT-A performance declined by 1 s each year of life, and TMT-B performance by 3 s; educational level had an impact of up to 30 s in TMT-B. TMT-B/A was only weakly associated with age and education. TMT-B and B - A correlated r = 0.96. Completion of the TMT-B within the time limit of 300 s was not achieved by 10.9% of participants >74 years, and especially by those >74 years who were on the lowest educational level (13.9%).

CONCLUSIONS

For TMT-A, TMT-B, and B - A, the narrow age categorization and distinction between three educational levels proved meaningful. The 300 s limit for the TMT-B impedes the identification of thresholds for very low performance in this age group and needs reconsideration.

Acceptance, Barriers, and Future Preferences of Mobile Health Among Patients Receiving Trauma and Orthopedic Surgical Care: Paper-Based Survey in a Prospective Multicenter Study

Background

Smartphones have become an essential part of everyday life and it is undeniable that apps offer enormous opportunities for dealing with future challenges in public health. Nevertheless, the exact patient requirements for medical apps in the field of orthopedic and trauma surgery are currently unknown.

Objective

The aim of this study was to define target groups, evaluate patient requirements, and the potential and pitfalls regarding medical apps specific for patients receiving orthopedic and trauma surgical care.

Methods

A prospective multicenter study was conducted between August 2018 and December 2019 at a German trauma center and 3 trauma surgery/orthopedic practices. A paper-based survey consisting of 15 questions evaluated information regarding smartphone and medical app usage behavior. In addition, suggested app functions were rated using Likert scales. Descriptive statistics and binary log-binomial regression were performed.

Results

A total of 1055 questionnaires were included in our statistical analysis. Approximately 89.57% (945/1055) of the patients in this study owned a smartphone. Smartphone ownership probability decreased with every decade of life and increased with higher levels of education. Medical information was obtained via mobile web access by 62.65% (661/1055) of the patients; this correlated with smartphone ownership in regard to age and educational level. Only 11.18% (118/1055) of the patients reported previous medical app usage, and 3.50% (37/1055) of the patients received an app recommendation from a physician. More than half (594/1055, 56.30%) of the patients were unwilling to pay for a medical app. The highest rated app functions were information about medication, behavioral guidelines, and medical record archival. An improved treatment experience was reported through the suggested app features by 71.18% (751/1055) of the patients.

Conclusions

Mobile devices are a widely used source of information for medical content, but only a minority of the population reported previous medical app usage. The main target group for medical apps among patients receiving orthopedic and trauma surgical care tends to be the younger population, which results in a danger of excluding fringe groups, especially the older adults. Education seems to be one of the most important pull factors to use smartphones or a mobile web connection to obtain health information. Medical apps primarily focusing on an optimized patient education and flow of information seem to have the potential to support patients in health issues, at least in their subjective perception. For future target group–oriented app developments, further evidence on the clinical application, feasibility, and acceptance of app usage are necessary in order to avoid patient endangerment and to limit socioeconomic costs.

Histological Features of Sporadic and Familial Testicular Germ Cell Tumors Compared and Analysis of Age-Related Changes of Histology

Simple Summary

Testicular germ cell tumors (TGCT) are highly heritable, and earlier studies reported a higher prevalence of certain microscopic features in familial cases compared with sporadic cases. Reasoning by analogy relative to different causal genes for different histologic subtypes of familial kidney cancer, we searched for etiologically informative histopathology associations in familial testicular germ cell cancer. We conducted a detailed, blinded pathology review of familial and sporadic TGCT cases to investigate whether we could identify differences between these two patient subsets and to study the effect of age at diagnosis on histologic features in both groups combined. Our results show no specific histologic differences between familial and sporadic TGCTs. However, we observed histologic features that varied with age at diagnosis among the two groups combined. Thus, our results suggest that there are no histological differences between familial and sporadic TGCT that might identify genetically distinct disease subsets.

Abstract

This study aimed to compare histological features of familial and sporadic testicular germ cell tumors (TGCTs) and surrounding parenchyma, since discriminating features might be etiologically relevant and clinically useful. The study of parenchyma was prompted by reports claiming a higher prevalence of testicular microlithiasis in familial cases. Histological features of TGCTs and surrounding parenchyma of 296 sporadic and 305 familial cases were compared. For each case, one representative hematoxylin and eosin-stained slide was available. Slides were independently scored by two expert pathologists using a semi-quantitative data abstract. Discrepancies were resolved by consensus. A logistic regression model was used to assess the ability to discriminate between sporadic and familial GCT. The histological composition of a tumor, amount of lymphocytic infiltration, amount of germ cell neoplasia in situ (GCNIS), and presence of testicular microlithiasis (TM) did not discriminate between sporadic and familial GCT (area under the curve 0.56, 95%CI 0.51–0.61). Novel observations included increasing lymphocytic infiltration and decreasing GCNIS and TM with increasing age at diagnosis. The presence of tubules with infiltrating lymphocytes was mainly associated with pure seminomas and nonseminomas with a seminoma component. Among seminomas, tubules with infiltrating lymphocytes decreased with increasing age. No discernable differences between sporadic and familial TGCTs were found. The age-related changes in the tumors and surrounding parenchyma in these groups combined are consistent with a host response building up over time predominantly affecting seminomas, the seminoma-component of nonseminomas and GCNIS. TM may gradually dissolve with age. Our hypothesis that histological differences between sporadic and familial TGCT might identify genetically distinct disease subsets was not supported.

Statistical inference in abstracts of three influential clinical pharmacology journals analyzed using a text-mining algorithm

AIM

To describe the trend in the prevalence of statistical inference in three influential clinical pharmacology journals METHODS: We applied a computer-based algorithm to abstracts of three clinical pharmacology journals published in 1976 to 2016 to identify statistical inference and its subtypes. Furthermore, we manually reviewed a random sample of 300 articles to access algorithm's performance in finding statistical inference in abstracts and as a screening tool for presence and absence of statistical inference in full text.

RESULT

The algorithm identified 59% (13,375/22,516 [mid p 95% CI, 59%-60%]) article abstracts with statistical inference. The percentage of abstracts with statistical inference was similar in 1976 and 2016, 48% (179/377 [mid p 95%CI, 42%-52%]) versus 49% (386/791 [mid p 95%CI, 45%-52%]). Statistical reporting pattern varied among journals. Among abstracts containing any statistical inference in the publications from 1976 to 2016 null-hypothesis significance testing was the most prevalent reported statistical inference. The algorithm had high sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) for finding statistical inferences in abstract. While PPV for predicting the statistical inference in full text (including abstract, text, tables and figures) was high, NPV was low.

CONCLUSION

Despite journal's editorials and statistical associations' guidelines, most authors focused on testing rather than estimation. In future, a better statistical reporting might be ensured by improving the statistical knowledge of authors and an addition of statistical guides to journals' instruction to authors to the extent that editors would like their statistical inference preferences to be incorporated into submitted manuscripts.

Outcome of melanoma patients with elevated LDH treated with first-line targeted therapy or PD-1-based immune checkpoint inhibition

BACKGROUND

Elevated lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) is a known predictive and prognostic factor for a poor outcome in patients with metastatic melanoma. It is unclear whether first-line targeted therapy (TT) or immune checkpoint inhibition (ICI) is more beneficial in melanoma patients with elevated LDH because prospective studies in this area are lacking.

METHODS

This multicentre retrospective cohort study was conducted at 25 melanoma centres worldwide to analyse progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) among melanoma patients with elevated LDH. The role of confounders was addressed by using inverse probability of treatment weighting.

RESULTS

Among 173 BRAFV600-mutant patients, PFS at 12 months in the TT group was 22% compared with 52% in the combined anti-PD-1 and anti-CTLA-4 group (HR 0.6, 95% CI 0.4-1.0, p = 0.07) and 18% in the anti-PD-1 monotherapy group (HR 1.8, 95% CI 1.2-2.8, p = 0.003). Twelve months' OS was 48% in the TT group compared with 83% in the combined anti-PD-1 and anti-CTLA-4 group (HR 0.5, 95% CI 0.3-1.0, p = 0.03) and 50% in the anti-PD-1 monotherapy group (HR 1.2, 95% CI 0.8-2.0, p = 0.37). The ORR in the TT group was 63%, compared with 55% and 20% in the combined anti-PD-1 and anti-CTLA-4 and anti-PD-1 monotherapy group, respectively. Among 314 patients receiving ICI first-line, PFS at 12 months was 33% in the anti-PD-1 group versus 38% in the combined anti-PD-1 and anti-CTLA-4 group (HR 0.8, 95% CI 0.6-1.0; p = 0.07). OS at 12 months was 54% in the anti-PD-1 group versus 66% in the combined ICI group (HR 0.7, 95% CI 0.5-1.0; p = 0.03). The ORR was 30% in the anti-PD-1 monotherapy group and 43% in the combined anti-PD-1 and anti-CTLA-4 group. Results from multivariate analysis confirmed the absence of qualitative confounding.

CONCLUSIONS

Among BRAF-mutant patients with elevated LDH, combined anti-PD-1 and anti-CTLA-4 blockade seems to be associated with prolonged OS compared with first-line TT. Among patients receiving ICI as a first-line treatment, OS appears to be longer for the combination of anti-PD-1 and anti-CTLA-4 than for anti-PD-1 alone.

Statistical Inference in Abstracts Published in Cardiovascular Journals

BACKGROUND

In 2016, the American Statistical Association stated that the use of statistical significance leads to distortion of the scientific process. The principal alternative to significance or null hypothesis testing (NHT) is estimation with point estimates and confidence intervals (CIs).

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to determine the time trend of statistical inference and statistical reporting style in abstracts in major cardiovascular journals.

METHODS

A total of 84,250 abstracts published from 1975 to 2019 in 9 high-ranking cardiovascular journals (Circulation, Circulation Research, European Heart Journal, European Heart Journal: Cardiovascular Imaging, European Journal of Heart Failure, Journal of the American College of Cardiology, JACC: Cardiovascular Imaging, JACC: Cardiovascular Interventions, and JAMA Cardiology) were reviewed; in particular, proportions of abstracts containing statistical inference and its major variants (NHT, significance testing) were compared over time and among journals.

RESULTS

Overall, 49,924 abstracts (59%) contained statistical inference. Among these abstracts, NHT was the most frequent reporting style of statistical inference (79% among all journals). Journals differed considerably in the prevalence of CI reporting (1% to 78% in 2017-2019). With the exception of 2 journals, the proportion of abstracts containing CIs was higher in the more recent period. From 2013-2015 to 2017-2019, the proportion of abstracts containing only CIs increased by 5 (95% CI: 0 to 10), 18 (95% CI: 15 to 21), and 9 (95% CI: 3 to 15) percentage points in the European Heart Journal, the Journal of the American College of Cardiology, and JACC: Cardiovascular Imaging, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

NHT is still the prevailing reporting style of statistical inference in major cardiovascular journals. Reporting of CIs in abstracts of major cardiovascular journals appears to be growing more popular.

Population impact of different hypertension management guidelines based on the prospective population-based Heinz Nixdorf Recall study

OBJECTIVE

Hypertension guidelines strongly differ between societies. The current American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guideline recommends higher proportions of the general population for antihypertensive medication than the previous American and European guidelines. How cardiovascular risk differs between persons with and without antihypertensive medication recommendation has not been examined. Additionally, the population impact of American, European and international guidelines has not been compared systematically within the same study population.

METHODS

We compared the prevalence of antihypertensive medication recommendation according to the American (Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure 7 (JNC7), ACC/AHA 2017), European (European Society of Hypertension (ESH)/European Society of Cardiology (ESC) 2013/2018), and international (WHO/International Society of Hypertension (ISH) 2003, ISH 2020) guidelines in 3092 participants of the population-based Heinz Nixdorf Recall study not taking antihypertensive medication at the baseline examination (58.1±7.5 years, 48.7% males). We furthermore compared incident cardiovascular events during the 5-year follow-up between participants with and without antihypertensive medication recommendation.

RESULTS

The ACC/AHA 2017 guideline recommended the highest percentage of participants for antihypertensive medication (45.8%) compared with the JNC7 (37.2%), ESH/ESC 2013 (17.8%), ESC/ESH 2018 (26.7%), WHO/ISH 2003 (20.3%) or ISH 2020 (25.0%) guidelines. Participants with antihypertensive medication recommendation according to the ACC/AHA 2017 guideline had a significantly higher incidence of cardiovascular events during the 5-year follow-up compared with participants without this recommendation (2.5% vs 1.1%, p=0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results call for randomised controlled trials to investigate whether applying the stricter ACC/AHA 2017 recommendation leads to a reduction in cardiovascular disease.

Reversion from prediabetes to normoglycaemia after weight change in older persons: The KORA F4/FF4 study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

In a non-interventional study of older persons, we assessed the impact of changes in BMI and waist circumference (WC) on reversion from glucose- and HbA1c-defined prediabetes to normoglycaemia (in short: reversion) and on persistence of normoglycaemia. Moreover, we studied whether reversion reduced cardiovascular risk.

METHODS AND RESULTS

From the population-based KORA S4/F4/FF4 cohort study conducted in Southern Germany, we utilized data from the second and third visit to the study center (median follow-up 6.5 years). We used two overlapping data sets, one with 563 persons with HbA1c<6.5% (mean age 69 years, 51.5% men), one with 510 persons with glucose-based prediabetes or normal glucose tolerance. We calculated proportions of reversion, and estimated adjusted relative risks for the association between initial BMI/WC and change of BMI/WC, respectively, and reversion (and persistence of normoglycaemia, respectively). We estimated 10-year cardiovascular risks using the Framingham 2008 score. Overall, 27.3% of persons with HbA1c-defined prediabetes and 9.2% of persons with glucose-based prediabetes returned to normoglycaemia during follow-up. Lower initial BMI/WC and reduction of BMI/WC were associated with larger probabilities of returning to normoglycaemia (e.g., for HbA1c 5.7-6.4%, RR = 1.24 (95% CI: 1.09-1.41) per 1 kg/m² decline of BMI). Moreover, reduction of BMI/WC increased probabilities of maintaining normoglycaemia (e.g., for glucose-based prediabetes, RR = 1.09 (1.02-1.16) per 1 kg/m² decline of BMI). 10-year cardiovascular risk was 5.6 (1.7-9.6) percentage points lower after reversion from glucose-based prediabetes to normoglycaemia.

CONCLUSION

In older adults, even moderate weight reduction contributes to reversion from prediabetes to normoglycaemia and to maintaining normoglycaemia.

Associations between haemoglobin A1c and mortality rate in the KORA S4 and the Heinz Nixdorf Recall population-based cohort studies

BACKGROUND

There is limited knowledge about mortality risk in persons with increased haemoglobin A_1c (HbA_1c ) levels below the diabetes threshold. Moreover, little is known about how associations between increased HbA_1c and mortality depend on the length of follow-up. Therefore, we studied associations between HbA_1c and mortality over long-term follow-up in persons with and without known diabetes.

METHODS

We used data from two German population-based cohort studies: KORA S4 Study (Southern Germany, n = 1458, baseline visits in 1999 to 2001, baseline age 55 to 74 years, mortality follow-up 16.8 years) and Heinz Nixdorf Recall (HNR) Study (Ruhr area, n = 4613, baseline visits in 2000 to 2003, baseline age 45 to 75 years, mortality follow-up 17.8 years). Adjusted log-linear models were fitted to estimate relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

In both cohorts, participants with HbA_1c 39 to 41 mmol/mol (5.7%-5.9%) and HbA_1c 42 to 46 mmol/mol (6.0% to 6.4%) did not have a larger overall mortality risk than participants with HbA_1c  < 39 mmol/mol (5.7%): the corresponding adjusted RRs were 1.00 (95% CI: 0.83-1.21) and 1.01 (0.80-1.27) in KORA and 0.99 (0.82-1.21) and 0.83 (0.65-1.07) in the HNR Study. For the pooled cohorts, the RR for HbA_1c 39 to 46 mmol/mol (5.7%-6.4%) was 0.96 (0.85-1.07). Associations between newly detected diabetes (HbA_1c  ≥ 6.5%) and mortality were weak after 4 and 8 years of follow-up, but were stronger after 12 years of follow-up, whereas associations between previously known diabetes (baseline) and mortality decreased.

CONCLUSIONS

HbA_1c -defined pre-diabetes is not associated with overall mortality. For newly detected and previously known diabetes, mortality risks vary with length of follow-up.

Gender specific excess mortality in Italy during the COVID-19 pandemic accounting for age

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, data have been accumulated to examine excess mortality in the first half of 2020. Mortality in the preceding year or years is used to calculate the expected number of deaths, which is then compared with the actual number of deaths in 2020. We calculated weekly age- and sex-specific mortality rates for 93.1% of the Italian municipalities for the years 2015-2019 and for the first 26 weeks in 2020. We assumed the mortality experience during 2015-2019 as the reference period to calculate standardised mortality ratios. Furthermore, in order to compare the mortality experience of males and females, we calculated sex- and age- specific weekly direct standardised mortality rates and differences between the observed and expected number of deaths. We observed considerable changes in the demographics in the Italian population between the years 2015 and 2020, particularly among people 60 years and older and among males. The population is aging and the proportion of elderly males has increased, which was not reflected adequately in previous estimates of excess mortality. Standardized excess mortality results show that in Italy between the 8th and 26th weeks in 2020, there were 33,035 excess deaths, which is only 643 fewer deaths than the official COVID-19 death toll for this time period. A comparative increase in the mortality rates was observed in March among both sexes, but particularly for males. Comparisons with recently published data show considerably higher excess deaths, but these data were either not covering the complete country or did not account for age and sex. Neglecting the demographic changes in a region, even over a short time span, can result in biased estimates.