Lone-Actor Terrorist Target Choice

Lone-actor terrorist attacks have risen to the forefront of the public's consciousness in the past few years. Some of these attacks were conducted against public officials. The rise of hard-to-detect, low-tech attacks may lead to more public officials being targeted. This paper explores whether different behavioral traits are apparent within a sample of lone-actor terrorists who plotted against high-value targets (including public officials) than within a sample of lone actors who plotted against members of the public. Utilizing a unique dataset of 111 lone-actor terrorists, we test a series of hypotheses related to attack capability and operational security. The results indicate that very little differentiates those who attack high-value targets from those who attack members of the public. We conclude with a series of illustrations to theorize why this may be the case. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Frequency Comparison of [Formula: see text] Ion Optical Clocks at PTB and NPL via GPS PPP

We used precise point positioning, a well-established GPS carrier-phase frequency transfer method to perform a direct remote comparison of two optical frequency standards based on single laser-cooled [Formula: see text] ions operated at the National Physical Laboratory (NPL), U.K. and the Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt (PTB), Germany. At both institutes, an active hydrogen maser serves as a flywheel oscillator which is connected to a GPS receiver as an external frequency reference and compared simultaneously to a realization of the unperturbed frequency of the (2)S1/2(F=0)-(2)D3/2(F=2) electric quadrupole transition in [Formula: see text] via an optical femtosecond frequency comb. To profit from long coherent GPS-link measurements, we extrapolate the fractional frequency difference over the various data gaps in the optical clock to maser comparisons which introduces maser noise to the frequency comparison but improves the uncertainty from the GPS-link instability. We determined the total statistical uncertainty consisting of the GPS-link uncertainty and the extrapolation uncertainties for several extrapolation schemes. Using the extrapolation scheme with the smallest combined uncertainty, we find a fractional frequency difference [Formula: see text] of -1.3×10(-15) with a combined uncertainty of 1.2×10(-15) for a total measurement time of 67 h. This result is consistent with an agreement of the frequencies realized by both optical clocks and with recent absolute frequency measurements against caesium fountain clocks within the corresponding uncertainties.

Women's connectivity in extreme networks

A popular stereotype is that women will play more minor roles than men as environments become more dangerous and aggressive. Our analysis of new longitudinal data sets from offline and online operational networks [for example, ISIS (Islamic State)] shows that although men dominate numerically, women emerge with superior network connectivity that can benefit the underlying system's robustness and survival. Our observations suggest new female-centric approaches that could be used to affect such networks. They also raise questions about how individual contributions in high-pressure systems are evaluated.

The Ueno method for substaging pT1 colorectal adenocarcinoma by depth and width measurement: an interobserver study

AIM

Early pT1 polyp colorectal cancers (CRCs) present challenges for accurate pathology substaging. Haggitt and Kikuchi stages depend on polyp morphology and are often difficult to apply due to suboptimal orientation or fragmentation, or absence of the muscularis propria in polypectomy or submucosal resection specimens. European guidelines for quality assurance suggest using Ueno's more objective approach, using depth and width measurements beyond muscularis mucosae. We have investigated interobserver variation using Ueno's approach.

METHOD

Ten consecutive pT1 polyp CRCs were identified and the slides assessed by six gastrointestinal pathologists for depth and width of invasion. A further 60 polyps were studied by a group of specialist and general pathologists. Agreement was assessed by analysis of variance. A polyp CRC is classified as high risk if it has a depth ≥ 2000 μm or a width ≥ 4000 μm and low risk with a depth < 2000 μm or a width < 4000 μm. Concordance for the dichotomized values was assessed using the kappa statistic.

RESULTS

The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) for depth was 0.83 and for width 0.56 in the 10-polyp group. The ICC for the 60-polyp CRCs was 0.67 for depth and 0.37 for width. In both groups, when polyp CRCs are divided into high- and low-risk categories based on depth, there was substantial and moderate agreement (κ = 0.80 and 0.47) but only fair agreement when based on width (κ = 0.34 and 0.35).

CONCLUSION

Ueno's method has the advantage of being independent of polyp morphology. Our study shows better concordance for depth measurement and reproducibility in nonfragmented specimens, with poorer agreement when based on width.

Originality and the PhD: what is it and how can it be demonstrated?

AIM

To explore the concept of originality in doctoral research and outline ways in which doctoral candidates can begin to identify, formulate and articulate their individual contributions to knowledge.

BACKGROUND

Originality is a major feature of doctoral research but considerable confusion exists regarding what can and cannot constitute originality in the PhD and how the contribution to knowledge can be demonstrated clearly.

DATA SOURCES

This is a discussion paper.

REVIEW METHODS

A review of relevant, published literature relating to originality in the PhD.

DISCUSSION

Many doctoral candidates merely outline why they believe their work to be original, instead of demonstrating critically how and in what way their research makes a meaningful contribution to the body of knowledge.

CONCLUSION

The concept of originality in the PhD is complex and multi-faceted. Identifying and conveying originality in doctoral research takes considerable time, contemplation and effort. This process is, however, integral to the PhD itself, and the skills acquired are essential for post-doctoral development.

IMPLICATIONS FOR RESEARCH/PRACTICE

A good doctoral thesis should clearly outline the different ways in which the work is original. A succinct, focused, critical appraisal of the specific contribution to knowledge is preferable to an exhaustive list.

Killing Range: Explaining Lethality Variance within a Terrorist Organization

This paper presents an analysis of the Provisional Irish Republican Army's (PIRA) brigade level behavior during the Northern Ireland Conflict (1970-1998) and identifies the organizational factors that impact a brigade's lethality as measured via terrorist attacks. Key independent variables include levels of technical expertise, cadre age, counter-terrorism policies experienced, brigade size, and IED components and delivery methods. We find that technical expertise within a brigade allows for careful IED usage, which significantly minimizes civilian casualties (a specific strategic goal of PIRA) while increasing the ability to kill more high value targets with IEDs. Lethal counter-terrorism events also significantly affect a brigade's likelihood of killing both civilians and high-value targets but in different ways. Killing PIRA members significantly decreases IED fatalities but also significantly decreases the possibility of zero civilian IED-related deaths in a given year. Killing innocent Catholics in a Brigade's county significantly increases total and civilian IED fatalities. Together the results suggest the necessity to analyze dynamic situational variables that impact terrorist group behavior at the sub-unit level.

A false dichotomy? Mental illness and lone-actor terrorism

We test whether significant differences in mental illness exist in a matched sample of lone- and group-based terrorists. We then test whether there are distinct behavioral differences between lone-actor terrorists with and without mental illness. We then stratify our sample across a range of diagnoses and again test whether significant differences exist. We conduct a series of bivariate, multivariate, and multinomial statistical tests using a unique dataset of 119 lone-actor terrorists and a matched sample of group-based terrorists. The odds of a lone-actor terrorist having a mental illness is 13.49 times higher than the odds of a group actor having a mental illness. Lone actors who were mentally ill were 18.07 times more likely to have a spouse or partner who was involved in a wider movement than those without a history of mental illness. Those with a mental illness were more likely to have a proximate upcoming life change, more likely to have been a recent victim of prejudice, and experienced proximate and chronic stress. The results identify behaviors and traits that security agencies can utilize to monitor and prevent lone-actor terrorism events. The correlated behaviors provide an image of how risk can crystalize within the individual offender and that our understanding of lone-actor terrorism should be multivariate in nature.

Transportable cavity-stabilized laser system for optical carrier frequency transmission experiments

We report the design and performance of a transportable laser system at 1543 nm, together with its application as the source for a demonstration of optical carrier frequency transmission over 118 km of an installed dark fiber network. The laser system is based around an optical reference cavity featuring an elastic mounting that bonds the cavity to its support, enabling the cavity to be transported without additional clamping. The cavity exhibits passive fractional frequency insensitivity to vibration along the optical axis of 2.0×10(-11)  m(-1) s(2). With active fiber noise cancellation, the optical carrier frequency transmission achieves a fractional frequency instability, measured at the user end, of 2.6×10(-16) at 1 s, averaging down to below 3×10(-18) after 20,000 s. The fractional frequency accuracy of the transfer is better than 3×10(-18). This level of performance is sufficient for comparison of state-of-the-art optical frequency standards and is achieved in an urban fiber environment.

Frequency ratio of two optical clock transitions in 171Yb+ and constraints on the time variation of fundamental constants

Singly ionized ytterbium, with ultranarrow optical clock transitions at 467 and 436 nm, is a convenient system for the realization of optical atomic clocks and tests of present-day variation of fundamental constants. We present the first direct measurement of the frequency ratio of these two clock transitions, without reference to a cesium primary standard, and using the same single ion of 171Yb+. The absolute frequencies of both transitions are also presented, each with a relative standard uncertainty of 6×10(-16). Combining our results with those from other experiments, we report a threefold improvement in the constraint on the time variation of the proton-to-electron mass ratio, μ/μ=0.2(1.1)×10(-16)  yr(-1), along with an improved constraint on time variation of the fine structure constant, α/α=-0.7(2.1)×10(-17)  yr(-1).

Birmingham and Lambeth Liver Evaluation Testing Strategies (BALLETS): a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate mildly abnormal liver function test (LFT) results in general practice among patients who do not have known liver disease.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study of people with abnormal LFT results identified in primary care. Participants were intensively investigated using a common protocol and followed up for 2 years. Substudies investigated the psychological sequelae of abnormal test results, clinicians' reasons for testing, decision options when LFT results were abnormal and early detection of liver fibrosis.

SETTING

Eleven primary-care practices: eight in Birmingham and three in Lambeth.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults with abnormal LFT results who did not have pre-existing or obvious liver disease. Eight analytes were included in the panel of LFTs.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Statistical tests were used to identify the interactions between clinical features, the initial pattern of abnormal LFT results and (1) specific viral, genetic and autoimmune diseases, such as viral hepatitis, haemochromatosis and primary biliary cirrhosis; (2) a range of other serious diseases, such as metastatic cancer and hypothyroidism; (3) 'fatty liver' not associated with the above; and (4) the absence of detectable disease.

RESULTS

Fewer than 5% of people with abnormal LFT results had a specific disease of the liver, and many of these were unlikely to need treatment. The diagnostic potential of the LFT panel is largely subsumed into just two analytes: alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and alkaline phosphatase (ALP). Gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) offers a small increase in sensitivity at the margin at the cost of a large loss of specificity. Eighty-four per cent of abnormal LFT results remain abnormal on retesting 1 month later. In many cases, carrying out a definitive or specific test will be more efficient than repeating LFTs, with a view to specific testing only if the test remains abnormal. An ultrasound diagnosis of 'fatty liver' was present in nearly 40% of patients with abnormal LFTs and a small amount of weight loss over 2 years was associated with a reduced incidence of liver fat. There was a J-shaped relationship between alcohol intake and fatty liver in men. An abnormal LFT result causes temporary anxiety, which does not appear to promote sustained behaviour change.

CONCLUSIONS

Liver disease is rare among people with abnormal LFT results in primary care. Only two analytes (ALT and ALP) are helpful in identifying the majority of liver disease. GGT adds little information in return for a high false-positive rate but it is sensitive to alcohol intake. LFT results seldom revert from abnormal to normal over a 1-month period, and modelling shows that repeating an abnormal LFT panel, as recommended in the current guidelines, is inefficient. LFTs are often undertaken to meet perceived patient need for a blood test, but as they are neither specific nor indicative of any particular disease they are among the least suitable tests for this purpose. Obesity and raised ALT provide strong evidence for a presumptive diagnosis of 'fatty' liver. Abnormal LFTs and 'fatty' liver provoke only short-term anxiety and neither is associated with sustained weight loss. Even a small amount of weight loss reduces liver fat.

FUTURE WORK RECOMMENDATIONS

(1) the cases of 'fatty liver' and controls should be followed up in the long term to identify features that predict development of hepatosteatosis and then cirrhosis; (2) the acceptability of replacing the traditional six- to eight-analyte LFT panel with a drop down menu including the ALT/ALP combination should be evaluated.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Parasexuality in genitourinary investigations: a qualitative study

BACKGROUND

Genitourinary investigations are performed on a large proportion of middle-aged and older men and the majority undergo investigations for prostate issues. The effects that genitourinary disease can have on men depend on the type of problem, investigations required and treatment including impotence, gynaecomastia and urinary incontinence that have lasting devastating physical, social and psychological effects. The aim was to explore older men's experience and views of intimate and intrusive genitourinary investigations and specifically to develop hypotheses and theories concerning gender and sexuality issues in intimate genitourinary investigations.

METHODS

Written informed consent was obtained for this qualitative study. Data were collected through one-off, semi-structured interviews involving 15 men in the first year following patient's last urological procedure. Initially, multiple themes were identified and when analysed further concepts were repeatedly present. As the urological investigations were limited to men, gender and sexuality became prominent issues in the data.

RESULTS

On analysis, the term parasexuality appeared to explain the dynamic of the situation. Parasexuality is a modified form of sexuality which is channelled and limited to maintain propriety. This was not expressed as sexuality in its overt, explicit sense, but instead a type of covert sexuality where professional boundaries are maintained but nonetheless undercurrents remain. This managed version of sexuality created a common currency by which interactions between staff and patients could take place safely. Feeding into parasexuality were gender role stereotypes and for some of the participants this reflected their own experience, context, historical and cultural norms. Intimate contact in the form of exposure and handling of the participants' genitalia during the investigations particularly challenged the boundaries of parasexuality. In order to remain parasexual, many of the participants suppressed their sexuality. Viewing staff as professional was an additional strategy used by participants to limit any sexuality as parasexuality.

CONCLUSION

This study has contributed towards the appeal for more studies to examine privacy perceptions of patients in genitalia-related care, however, it is by no means definitive. Parasexuality goes some way to explain the dynamics of communication between older men and health care professionals during genitourinary investigations.

Renal transplant failure and disenfranchised grief: participants' experiences in the first year post-graft failure--a qualitative longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

Renal transplant failure has a devastating impact on patients and their families. However, little research has been conducted in this area, which limits insight and understanding of the transplant failure experience that could subsequently inform clinical practice.

OBJECTIVES

To explore participants' experiences of renal transplant failure in the first year post-graft failure.

DESIGN

A qualitative, longitudinal study informed by Heideggerian hermeneutics.

PARTICIPANTS AND SETTINGS

A purposive sample of 16 participants (8 recipients, 8 'significant others') from a regional renal transplant unit and 3 District General Hospitals in South-West England.

METHODS

Data were collected through a series of three recorded, semi-structured interviews in the first year post-renal transplant failure. Data analysis was informed by a three-step analytical process.

RESULTS

Renal transplantation was the treatment of choice and had a transformative effect on the lives of all participants. Graft failure has 2 distinct phases; failing and failed and the transition from one phase to the other is unpredictable, uncertain and stressful. Transplant failure had a devastating impact on all participants, regardless of time since transplantation and resulted in feelings of shock, grief, loss, anger, guilt and depression. Dialysis was disruptive and demanding and served as a constant reminder of transplant failure and lost freedom. Participants grieved the loss of their 'previous life' and 'imagined future' but, beyond the understanding of close family members, these losses appeared unrecognised, particularly by health professionals. Participants used various coping mechanisms to deal with stressors associated with transplant failure. Factors affecting coping and adjusting included improved physical health and social support, which was especially important within the marital dyad. Healthcare services were positively evaluated, although information concerning the prospect of transplant failure and support post-graft failure could be improved.

CONCLUSION

Renal transplant failure has a profound impact on recipients, spouses and other close family members and appears to resemble a form of disenfranchised grief. The theory of disenfranchised grief provides a coherent explication of participants' experiences in this study, which should help inform clinical practice, particularly in relation to the provision of information and emotional support post-graft failure.