Diagnostic accuracy of urine dipstick for proteinuria category in Japanese workers

BACKGROUND

Urine dipstick tests are often used to evaluate proteinuria during health checkups. We examined the dipstick's accuracy in assessing the proteinuria levels among Japanese workers.

METHODS

We assessed subjects aged ≥ 18 years who had a health checkup at the University of Tokyo in 2016 or 2017 (n = 5383). Proteinuria was stratified by urine protein-to-creatinine ratio (PCR): A1, < 150 mg/gCre; A2, 150-499 mg/gCre; and A3, ≥ 500 mg/gCre. The accuracy of a dipstick result of ± or higher to detect a PCR level of ≥ A2 was examined. We compared changes in dipstick results and PCR level in 136 subjects evaluated twice with a median interval of 119 days.

RESULTS

The subjects' mean age was 40 years, and half were women. The dipstick results were - in 94.9%, ± in 4.1%, and ≥ 1 + in 1.0%. The PCR level was A1, A2, A3 in 98.6%, 1.2%, and 0.2% of the subjects, respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of a ± or higher dipstick result to detect A2 or higher were 66.2%, 95.6%, 17.5%, and 99.5%, respectively. Among the 136 subjects examined twice, 134 (98.5%) had no change in PCR level (A1 in all cases) despite a decrease or increase in dipstick results.

CONCLUSION

Urine dipstick results of ± or above had a high specificity but low sensitivity and positive predictive value to detect PCR proteinuria of A2 or higher. Confirmation by quantitative protein measurement should be recommended for individuals at high risk of chronic kidney disease.

Association of Trajectories of Higher-Level Functional Capacity with Mortality and Medical and Long-Term Care Costs Among Community-Dwelling Older Japanese

Background

Higher-level functional capacity is crucial component for independent living in later life. We used repeated-measures analysis to identify aging trajectories in higher-level functional capacity. We then determined whether these trajectories were associated with all-cause mortality and examined differences in medical and long-term care costs between trajectories among community-dwelling older Japanese.

Methods

2,675 adults aged 65-90 years participated in annual geriatric health assessments and biennial health monitoring surveys during the period from October 2001 through August 2011. The average number of follow-up assessments was 4.0, and the total number of observations was 10,609. Higher-level functional capacity, which correspond to the fourth and fifth sublevels of Lawton's hierarchical model, was assessed with the Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Gerontology-Index of Competence (TMIG-IC).

Results

We identified four distinct trajectory patterns (high-stable, late-onset decreasing, early-onset decreasing, and low-decreasing) on the TMIG-IC through age 65-90 years. As compared with the high-stable trajectory group, participants in the late-onset decreasing, early-onset decreasing, and low-decreasing TMIG-IC trajectory groups had adjusted hazard ratios for mortality of 1.22 (95% confidence interval: 1.01-1.47), 1.90 (1.53-2.36), and 2.87 (2.14-3.84), respectively. Participants with high-stable and late-onset decreasing higher-level functional capacity trajectories had lower mean monthly medical costs and long-term care costs. In contrast, mean total costs were higher for those with low-decreasing trajectories, after excluding the large increase in such costs at the end of life.

Conclusions

People with a low-decreasing aging trajectory in higher-level functional capacity had higher risks of death and had high monthly total costs.

Prediction of Prognosis of Intermediate-Stage HCC Patients: Validation of the Tumor Marker Score in a Nationwide Database in Japan

BACKGROUND/AIM

Adequate assessment of transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE)-refractory status has become more important for switching treatment in intermediate-stage (BCLC-B) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients treated with TACE. The usefulness of a previously proposed tumor marker score for predicting prognosis of BCLC-B HCC patients treated with TACE was investigated.

METHODS

Using a nationwide database, we examined the records of 1,306 naïve BCLC-B HCC with Child-Pugh A who were treated from 2001 to 2007, after excluding those with missing data (hepatic function or tumor markers) or cases with a single large tumor. Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) ≥100 ng/mL, fucosylated AFP (AFP-L3) ≥10%, and des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin ≥100 mAU/mL were markers used to define positive cases. The number of positive tumor markers was used as a prognostic score, and its predictive value was evaluated in a retrospective manner.

RESULTS

Median survival time became shorter along with increased score (0, 1, ≥2 = 4.8, 3.8, 3.2 years, respectively; p < 0.01). Tumor marker score (≥2; hazard ratio [HR] 1.675, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.372-2.044, p < 0.001), serum levels of albumin (≥3.5 g/dL; HR 0.726, 95% CI 0.528-0.997, p = 0.048), and up-to-7 criteria (HR 1.673, 95% CI 1.400-2.000, p < 0.001) were significant prognostic factors for death in the Cox hazard multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSION

Tumor marker score had a useful predictive prognostic value in BCLC-B HCC treated with TACE. Especially in patients with a tumor marker score of 2 or greater, a poor therapeutic response should be expected, and appropriate judgement of TACE-refractory status is necessary.

Clinical practice guidelines for hepatocellular carcinoma: The Japan Society of Hepatology 2017 (4th JSH-HCC guidelines) 2019 update

The fourth version of Clinical Practice Guidelines for Hepatocellular Carcinoma was revised by the Japan Society of Hepatology, according to the methodology of evidence-based medicine and partly to the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation system, which was published in October 2017 in Japanese. New or revised recommendations were described, herein, with a special reference to the surveillance, diagnostic, and treatment algorithms.

Analysis of the duration and extent of the legacy effect in patients with type 2 diabetes: A real-world longitudinal study

AIMS

To analyze the duration and extent of the legacy effect on diabetic complications in real-world patients with type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study. We included the following three cohorts of patients: diabetic retinopathy (DR) (n = 1107), diabetic kidney disease (DKD) (n = 1486), and cardiovascular disease (CVD) (n = 1485). Patients were enrolled from 1995 to 1999 and followed up to 2017. Endpoints were DR incidence, ≥40% decrease in estimated glomerular filtration rate, and CVD incidence. The relationships between HbA1c as a time-dependent variable and the risk of reaching each endpoint were analyzed using multivariate Cox regression models.

RESULTS

A total of 313 patients developed DR, 316 developed DKD, and 177 developed CVD. Hazard ratios as a function of time-dependent HbA1c (moving mean) accumulated over time. This accumulation was largest for DR, followed by DKD and CVD. The hazard ratios for each endpoint reached a plateau during the preceding 14-19 years.

CONCLUSIONS

The effect of past glycemic control may continue during 14-19 years, with a greater effect during ≤10 years. Therefore, the end of the legacy effect could be 15-20 years. This effect may be the greatest for DR, followed by DKD, and the smallest for CVD.

A multicenter randomized controlled trial to evaluate the efficacy of surgery vs. radiofrequency ablation for small hepatocellular carcinoma (SURF trial)

4002

Background: Surgery (SUR) and radiofrequency ablation (RFA) are both known to be effective therapy for treating patients with small oligonodular hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), however there is only insufficient evidence about which therapy is more preferred approach. This randomized controlled trial was designed to prospectively compare the efficacy of SUR and RFA as the first approach to primary HCC. Methods: In this open-label trial undertaken at 49 hospital in Japan, we recruited patients having primary HCC with tumor foci numbering less than 3, each measuring 3 cm or less, Child-Pugh score of 7 or less, ages between 20 and 79 year. Before randomization, technical and liver functional feasibility for both treatment arms were confirmed by joint chart review by surgeons and hepatologists. Patients were then randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to undergo SUR or RFA, stratified by age, infection of hepatitis-C virus, number of tumors, tumor size and institution. The primary endpoint was recurrence free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS). Results: Between April 2009 and August 2015, total 308 patients were enrolled to this trial. Because of ineligibility 15 patients were excluded, therefore 145 patients underwent SUR and 148 patients underwent RFA finally. There was no perioperative mortality. Under the median follow-up of 5 years, the 3-year RFS of patients underwent SUR and RFA was 49.8%, 47.7%, respectively (hazard ration [HR] 0.96, 95% CI 0.72-1.28; p = 0.793). OS will be analyzed and published after two years. Conclusions: SUR and RFA were both safe therapeutic approaches and provided equally RFS for early stage HCC smaller than 3 cm. Clinical trial information: UMIN000001795.

The effect of neoadjuvant chemotherapy with gemcitabine and S-1 for resectable pancreatic cancer (randomized phase II/III trial; Prep-02/JSAP-05)

4126

Background: Despite recent progress of adjuvant chemotherapy for resected pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), its survival remains limited. We conducted a randomized controlled trial to compare neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) with upfront surgery (UP-S) for patients with resectable PDAC. Methods: Patients with resectable PDAC, all confirmed cytologically or histologically were enrolled. Patients received 2 cycles of gemcitabine and S-1 regimen (GS) followed by surgery (NAC) or UP-S after randomization (1:1). Patients in both arms received adjuvant chemotherapy using S-1 for 6 months after surgical resection. The primary endpoint was overall survival (OS); secondary endpoints included adverse events, resection rate, recurrence-free survival, residual tumor status, nodal metastases, and tumor marker kinetics. Results: A total 362 patients were randomly assigned to NAC-GS (n=182) or UP-S (n=180) for 3 years (2013-16). The median OS was 36.7 months in NAC-GS and 26.6 months in UP-S; HR 0.72 (p=0.015, stratified log-rank test) at 2.5 year after final enrollment. Crude resection rate for NAC and UP-S were 77%, 72% respectively. There was no operative mortality in both groups. Although G3/4 adverse events were observed frequently (73%) during NAC, no significant difference for both groups was observed for perioperative outcomes including blood loss, operation time, R0 resection rate and post-operative morbidity. Significant decrease of pathological nodal metastases in NAC was noted compared to those in UP-S by pathological evaluation for resected patients(p<0.01). Although significant decrease of viable tumor cells was observed in primary tumor after NAC compared to UP-S (p<0.01), Evans IIb or more was found in only 14 % of resected patients in NAC. Hepatic recurrence after surgery was significantly reduced in NAC (30.0%) compared to UP-S (47.5%) in observed period. Conclusions: The strategy of NAC showed significant longer survival compared to that of UP-S with acceptable feasibility. The effect of NAC might imply the control of subdiagnostic liver metastases before surgery for resectable PDAC. Clinical trial information: UMIN000009634.

Impact of Dental Diseases on Quality-Adjusted Life Expectancy in US Adults

Comparing the burden of dental conditions to other health outcomes provides useful insight for public policy. We aimed to estimate quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) loss due to dental conditions in the US adult population. Social inequalities in QALE loss by dental conditions were also examined. Data from 3 cross-sectional waves of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES waves 2001 to 2002, 2003 to 2004, and 2011 to 2012) were pooled and analyzed. The average age of study participants ( n = 9,445) was 48.4 y. Disutility scores were derived from self-rated health and the numbers of physically unhealthy days, mentally unhealthy days, and days with activity limitation, employing a previously published algorithm. The associations between the disutility scores and the numbers of decayed teeth, missing teeth, and periodontitis were examined by multiple linear regression stratified by age groups (20–39, 40–59, and ≥60 y), adjusted for other covariates (age, sex, wave fixed effect, educational attainment, smoking, and diabetes). The QALE loss due to dental conditions at the age of 20 was estimated using life tables. Decayed and missing teeth, but not periodontitis, were associated with a larger disutility score. The coefficient for decayed teeth was larger among the older population, whereas that of missing teeth was smaller among them. The estimated QALE loss was 0.43 y (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.28–0.59), which reached 5.3% of QALE loss (8.15 y; 95% CI, 8.03–8.27) due to overall morbidity. There were clear social gradients in QALE loss by dental conditions across the life course, and people with high school or less education had 0.32 y larger QALE loss in total compared with people with college or more education. This study suggests that improvements in people’s dental health may yield substantial gains in population health and well-being. The necessity of more comprehensive public health strategies is highlighted.

Dynamic prediction of repeated events data based on landmarking model: application to colorectal liver metastases data

BACKGROUND

In some clinical situations, patients experience repeated events of the same type. Among these, cancer recurrences can result in terminal events such as death. Therefore, here we dynamically predicted the risks of repeated and terminal events given longitudinal histories observed before prediction time using dynamic pseudo-observations (DPOs) in a landmarking model.

METHODS

The proposed DPOs were calculated using Aalen-Johansen estimator for the event processes described in the multi-state model. Furthermore, in the absence of a terminal event, a more convenient approach without matrix operation was described using the ordering of repeated events. Finally, generalized estimating equations were used to calculate probabilities of repeated and terminal events, which were treated as multinomial outcomes.

RESULTS

Simulation studies were conducted to assess bias and investigate the efficiency of the proposed DPOs in a finite sample. Little bias was detected in DPOs even under relatively heavy censoring, and the method was applied to data from patients with colorectal liver metastases.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed method enabled intuitive interpretations of terminal event settings.

A designer molecular chaperone against transmissible spongiform encephalopathy slows disease progression in mice and macaques

Transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) are fatal neurodegenerative diseases that lack therapeutic solutions. Here, we show that the molecular chaperone (N,N'-([cyclohexylmethylene]di-4,1-phenylene)bis(2-[1-pyrrolidinyl]acetamide)), designed via docking simulations, molecular dynamics simulations and quantum chemical calculations, slows down the progress of TSEs. In vitro, the designer molecular chaperone stabilizes the normal cellular prion protein, eradicates prions in infected cells, prevents the formation of drug-resistant strains and directly inhibits the interaction between prions and abnormal aggregates, as shown via real-time quaking-induced conversion and in vitro conversion NMR. Weekly intraperitoneal injection of the chaperone in prion-infected mice prolonged their survival, and weekly intravenous administration of the compound in macaques infected with bovine TSE slowed down the development of neurological and psychological symptoms and reduced the concentration of disease-associated biomarkers in the animals' cerebrospinal fluid. The de novo rational design of chaperone compounds could lead to therapeutics that can bind to different prion protein strains to ameliorate the pathology of TSEs.

Randomized phase II/III trial of neoadjuvant chemotherapy with gemcitabine and S-1 versus upfront surgery for resectable pancreatic cancer (Prep-02/JSAP05)

A randomized, controlled trial has begun to compare neoadjuvant chemotherapy using gemcitabine and S-1 with upfront surgery for patients planned resection of pancreatic cancer. Patients were enrolled after the diagnosis of resectable or borderline resectable by portal vein involvement pancreatic cancer with histological confirmation. They were randomly assigned to either neoadjuvant chemotherapy or upfront surgery. Adjuvant chemotherapy using S-1 was administered for 6 months to patients with curative resection who fully recovered within 10 weeks after surgery in both arms. The primary endpoint is overall survival; secondary endpoints include adverse events, resection rate, recurrence-free survival, residual tumor status, nodal metastases and tumor marker kinetics. The target sample size was required to be at least 163 (alpha-error 0.05; power 0.8) in both arms. A total of 360 patients were required after considering ineligible cases. This trial began in January 2013 and was registered with the UMIN Clinical Trials Registry (UMIN000009634).

Randomized phase II/III trial of neoadjuvant chemotherapy with gemcitabine and S-1 versus upfront surgery for resectable pancreatic cancer (Prep-02/JSAP-05)

189

Background: Despite improvements of postoperative adjuvant therapy for resected pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), its prognosis remains poor. A randomized controlled trial has begun to compare neoadjuvant chemotherapy using gemcitabine and S1 (NAC-GS) with upfront surgery (Up-S) for patients with PDAC planned resection. Methods: Patients were enrolled after the diagnosis of resectable PDAC with histological confirmation. They were randomly assigned as either NAC-GS or Up-S. In NAC-GS, gemcitabine was provided at a dose of 1 g/m2 on day 1 and 8 and oral S-1 was administered at a dose of 40 mg/m2 twice daily on 1-14 days. Patients received 2 cycles of this regimen. S-1 adjuvant for 6 months was administered for the patients with curative resection and fully recovered within 10 weeks after surgery in both arms. The primary endpoint for the phase III part was overall survival (OS); secondary endpoints included adverse events, resection rate, recurrence-free survival, residual tumor status, nodal metastases, and tumor marker kinetics. The target sample size required 163 patients (α-error 0.05; power 0.8) in each arm. The trial was conducted by the Health Labor Sciences Research Grant (H22-009) of Japan and registered with the UMIN Clinical Trials Registry as UMIN000009634. Results: From January 2013 to January 2016, 364 patients were enrolled in 57 centers (182 to NAC-GS and 182 to Up-S). Of these, two were excluded because of ineligibility, therefore 182 patients in NAC-GS and 180 in Up-S constituted the ITT analysis-set. The median OS was 36.7 months in NAC-GS and 26.6 months in Up-S; HR 0.72 (95% confidential interval 0.55-0.94; p=0.015 [stratified log-rank test]). Grade 3 or 4 adverse events frequently (72.8%) observed in NAC-GS were leukopenia or neutropenia. However, the resection rate, R0 resection rate, and morbidity of the operation were equivalent in the two groups. There was no perioperative mortality in either group. Conclusions: This phase III study demonstrated the significant survival benefits of NAC-GS treatment. Therefore, the results indicated that neoadjuvant chemotherapy could be a new standard for patients with resectable PDAC. Clinical trial information: UMIN000009634.

Estimating the Net Utility Gains Among Donors and Recipients of Adult Living Donor Kidney Transplant

OBJECTIVES

Living donor kidney transplant relieves the disease burden of patients with end-stage renal disease but may shorten donor life expectancy; however, their quality of life (QOL) is preserved. Nevertheless, the magnitude of the net gain of this procedure is unknown. We evaluated the QOL of both donors and recipients concurrently and calculated the net utility gain.

METHODS

We recruited 210 subjects who visited the kidney transplantation clinic of a university hospital. Subjects were asked to complete the 5-level EQ-5D-based questionnaire, and patient characteristics were extracted from their medical records. We performed multivariate tobit models analysis to evaluate the QOL change caused by transplant surgery and subsequently ran computational simulations to determine the net utility gains of donors and recipients. We also performed sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

After excluding 16 answers with missing data, we analyzed 203 answers in total. After the transplant surgery, recipients gained 0.07 in utility value while donors lost 0.04. In the net utility analysis, we found that the quality-adjusted life years gained ranged from 7.2 to 7.8 in the most favorable case observed in the combination of middle-aged recipients and elderly donors. Assuming no utility discount, the most favorable combination was that with older donors and younger recipients.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings indicated that the QOL improvement in recipients was larger than the loss among donors. When calculating the net utilities, a combination of middle-aged recipients and elderly donors yielded the largest net utility, but this was likely derived from assumption in the discount of QOL.

The Number of Events per Confounder for Valid Estimation of Risk Difference Using Modified Least-Squares Regression

Risk difference is a relevant effect measure in epidemiologic research. Although it is well known that when there are few events per confounder, logistic regression is not suitable for confounding control, it is not clear how many events per confounder are required for valid estimation of risk difference using linear binomial models. Because the maximum likelihood method has a convergence problem, we investigated the number of events per confounder necessary to validly estimate risk difference using modified least-squares regression in a simulation. We simulated 864 scenarios, according to the number of confounders (2-20), the number of events per confounder (2-12), marginal risk (0.5%-40%), exposure proportion (20% and 40%), and 3 sizes of risk difference. Our simulation showed that modified least-squares regression provided unbiased risk difference-regardless of the number of events per confounder-and reliable confidence intervals when more than 5 events were expected in the exposed and in the unexposed, irrespective of the number of events per confounder. We illustrated the modified least-squares regression analysis using perinatal epidemiologic data. Modified least-squares regression is considered to be a useful analytical tool for rare binary outcomes relative to the number of confounders.

Reasonable two-stage adaptive designs for single-arm phase II clinical trials

In cancer phase II trials, determining the sample size of a single-arm two-stage design remains a challenge. To overcome this problem, Simon's two-stage design was extended to an adaptive design: at the interim analysis, the total sample size can be set to either of the two preplanned values. However, without any restriction on design construction, an optimal or suboptimal design derived may have counter-intuitive or unreasonable design features, which make the chosen design less persuasive and inefficient. Thus, we thoroughly examined how the expected, total, and maximum sample sizes of the optimal or suboptimal designs are affected by excluding the counter-intuitive or unreasonable designs. We adopted the four optimality criteria: minimizing the expected sample size at the null hypothesis (O1), minimizing the maximum expected sample size over the hypotheses (O2), and minimizing the maximum sample sizes with additional adaption of either of the former two (O3 or O4, respectively). We found that focusing on reasonable design may drastically reduce the maximum sample size when the first optimality criterion is applied. Under the other optimality criteria, although the impact on optimality brought by our proposed strategy may be slight, exclusion of unreasonable design is still useful to reduce the candidate designs, which will considerably reduce the computational time for design search and can facilitate the design choice among optimal and suboptimal designs. We further discuss the utility of our proposal in an example of a real clinical trial and conclude the paper with general recommendations.

Differences in the Effect of Internet-Based Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for Improving Nonclinical Depressive Symptoms Among Workers by Time Preference: Randomized Controlled Trial

Background

Previous randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have shown a significant intervention effect of internet-based computerized cognitive behavioral therapy (iCBT) on improving nonclinical depressive symptoms among healthy workers and community residents in a primary prevention setting. Time preference is one’s relative valuation for having a reward (eg, money) at present than at a later date. Time preference may affect the effectiveness of cognitive behavioral therapy.

Objective

This RCT aimed to test the difference of intervention effect of an iCBT program on improving nonclinical depressive symptoms between two subgroups classified post-hoc on the basis of time preference among workers in Japan.

Methods

All workers in one corporate group (approximate n=20,000) were recruited. Participants who fulfilled the inclusion criteria were randomly allocated to either intervention or control groups. Participants in the intervention group completed 6 weekly lessons and homework assignments within the iCBT program. The Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI-II) and Kessler’s Psychological Distress Scale (K6) measures were obtained at baseline and 3-, 6-, and 12-month follow-ups. Two subgroups were defined by the median of time preference score at baseline.

Results

Only few (835/20,000, 4.2%) workers completed the baseline survey. Of the 835 participants, 706 who fulfilled the inclusion criteria were randomly allocated to the intervention or control group. Participants who selected irrational time preference options were excluded (21 and 18 participants in the intervention and control groups, respectively). A three-way interaction (group [intervention/control] × time [baseline/follow-up] × time preference [higher/lower]) effect of iCBT was significant for BDI-II (t_1147.42=2.33, P=.02) and K6 (t_1254.04=2.51, P=.01) at the 3-month follow-up, with a greater effect of the iCBT in the group with higher time preference. No significant three-way interaction was found at the 6- and 12-month follow-ups.

Conclusions

The effects of the iCBT were greater for the group with higher time preference at the shorter follow-up, but it was leveled off later. Workers with higher time preference may change their cognition or behavior more quickly, but these changes may not persist.

Trial Registration

UMIN Clinical Trials Registry UMIN000014146; https://upload.umin.ac.jp/cgi-open-bin/ctr_e/ctr_view.cgi? recptno=R000016466 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/70o2rNk2V)

Comparison of efficacy and safety between intravenous ferric carboxymaltose and saccharated ferric oxide in Japanese patients with iron-deficiency anemia due to hypermenorrhea: a multi-center, randomized, open-label noninferiority study

The intravenous formulation for supplementing iron currently available in Japan requires frequent administration. In contrast, ferric carboxymaltose (FCM) can improve iron-deficiency anemia (IDA) with only a small number of administrations; however, its efficacy and safety have not been established in Japanese patients. In this randomized, open-label study, we verified the noninferiority of FCM to saccharated ferric oxide (SFO) in Japanese patients with IDA due to hypermenorrhea, with the mean change from baseline to the highest observed hemoglobin level as the primary endpoint. Two hundred and thirty-eight eligible subjects (119 in FCM group, 119 in SFO group) were administered the investigational medicinal product and included in the analysis. The adjusted mean change from baseline to the highest observed hemoglobin level (95% CI) was 3.90 g/dL (3.77, 4.04) in the FCM group and 4.05 g/dL (3.92, 4.19) in the SFO group, and the difference between the groups (95% CI) was - 0.15 g/dL (- 0.35, 0.04). The noninferiority of FCM was verified. Incidence of adverse events was < 60% in both groups, and no significant difference was observed between the treatment groups. These results indicate that FCM can be a new, well-tolerated, and rapid treatment option for Japanese patients with IDA.

Impact of resection and ablation for single hypovascular hepatocellular carcinoma ≤2 cm analysed with propensity score weighting

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Small hypovascular hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) ≤2 cm is biologically less aggressive than hypervascular one, however, the optimal treatment is still undetermined. The efficacy of surgical resection (SR), radiofrequency ablation (RFA) and percutaneous ethanol injection (PEI) was evaluated.

METHODS

The 853 (SR, 176; RFA, 491; PEI, 186) patients were enrolled who met Child-Pugh A/B, single hypovascular HCC ≤2 cm pathologically proven, available tumour differentiation and absence of macrovascular invasion and extrahepatic metastasis. Overall and recurrence-free survivals were compared in original and a propensity score weighted pseudo-population with 732 patients.

RESULTS

The median follow-up time and tumour size were 2.8 years and 1.47 cm respectively. In original population, multivariate Cox regression showed no significant difference for overall survival among three groups. In pseudo-population, Cox regression also revealed no significant difference for overall survival among them, although SR (HR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.36-0.86) and RFA (HR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.57-1.00) groups had significantly lower recurrence than PEI group. The overall survival rates at 3 and 5 years for the SR, RFA and PEI groups were 94%/70%, 90%/75% and 94%/73% respectively. Corresponding recurrence-free survival rates were 64%/54%, 59%/41% 48%/33% respectively. Subgroup analysis revealed no significant survival benefit of SR compared with non-SR. No treatment-related death occurred.

CONCLUSIONS

For patients with single hypovascular HCC ≤2 cm, no significant difference for overall survival was first identified among 3 treatment groups. The SR or RFA could be recommended, and PEI would be alternative to RFA.

A comparison of estimators from self-controlled case series, case-crossover design, and sequence symmetry analysis for pharmacoepidemiological studies

Background

Despite the frequent use of self-controlled methods in pharmacoepidemiological studies, the factors that may bias the estimates from these methods have not been adequately compared in real-world settings. Here, we comparatively examined the impact of a time-varying confounder and its interactions with time-invariant confounders, time trends in exposures and events, restrictions, and misspecification of risk period durations on the estimators from three self-controlled methods. This study analyzed self-controlled case series (SCCS), case-crossover (CCO) design, and sequence symmetry analysis (SSA) using simulated and actual electronic medical records datasets.

Methods

We evaluated the performance of the three self-controlled methods in simulated cohorts for the following scenarios: 1) time-invariant confounding with interactions between the confounders, 2) time-invariant and time-varying confounding without interactions, 3) time-invariant and time-varying confounding with interactions among the confounders, 4) time trends in exposures and events, 5) restricted follow-up time based on event occurrence, and 6) patient restriction based on event history. The sensitivity of the estimators to misspecified risk period durations was also evaluated. As a case study, we applied these methods to evaluate the risk of macrolides on liver injury using electronic medical records.

Results

In the simulation analysis, time-varying confounding produced bias in the SCCS and CCO design estimates, which aggravated in the presence of interactions between the time-invariant and time-varying confounders. The SCCS estimates were biased by time trends in both exposures and events. Erroneously short risk periods introduced bias to the CCO design estimate, whereas erroneously long risk periods introduced bias to the estimates of all three methods. Restricting the follow-up time led to severe bias in the SSA estimates. The SCCS estimates were sensitive to patient restriction. The case study showed that although macrolide use was significantly associated with increased liver injury occurrence in all methods, the value of the estimates varied.

Conclusions

The estimations of the three self-controlled methods depended on various underlying assumptions, and the violation of these assumptions may cause non-negligible bias in the resulting estimates. Pharmacoepidemiologists should select the appropriate self-controlled method based on how well the relevant key assumptions are satisfied with respect to the available data.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12874-017-0457-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Validation and Potential of Albumin-Bilirubin Grade and Prognostication in a Nationwide Survey of 46,681 Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients in Japan: The Need for a More Detailed Evaluation of Hepatic Function

BACKGROUND/AIM

Recently, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) scoring/grading, consisting of only albumin and total bilirubin, has been proposed. We examined the efficacy of this grading system for determining hepatic function in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

METHODS/MATERIALS

The prognoses of 46,681 HCC patients based on results obtained from a nationwide survey conducted in Japan from 2001 to 2007 were evaluated using (1) Japan Integrated Staging (JIS), consisting of Child-Pugh classification and TNM staging (TNM), (2) modified JIS (m-JIS), consisting of liver damage grading and TNM, and (3) ALBI-TNM (ALBI-T), consisting of ALBI grading and TNM, and the results were compared. A subanalysis was also performed to define a cutoff value for ALBI scores for a more detailed stratification of hepatic function.

RESULTS

ALBI-T, JIS, and m-JIS each showed good capacity for the stratification of prognoses. Although the Akaike information criterion for ALBI-T was nearly equal to that for JIS and m-JIS, the Kaplan-Meier curves and median survival times obtained with ALBI-T were always superior to the corresponding scores. When the indocyanine green retention test (<30%) was used as an additional cutoff value for ALBI score (-2.270, area under the curve 0.828) to divide ALBI grade into 4 levels (modified ALBI [mALBI] grade), mALBI grade was able to stratify the prognosis of patients at any TNM stage in order of grade. Modified ALBI-T (mALBI-T), using mALBI grading and TNM, produced a more detailed stratification for prognosis.

CONCLUSION

The predictive value for prognosis of ALBI-T was found to be equal to that of JIS and m-JIS. In addition, mALBI grading and mALBI-T, as proposed in the present study, might provide a more detailed assessment of the hepatic function and prognosis of HCC patients.