Interstitial lung abnormalities detected incidentally on CT: a Position Paper from the Fleischner Society

The term interstitial lung abnormalities refers to specific CT findings that are potentially compatible with interstitial lung disease in patients without clinical suspicion of the disease. Interstitial lung abnormalities are increasingly recognised as a common feature on CT of the lung in older individuals, occurring in 4-9% of smokers and 2-7% of non-smokers. Identification of interstitial lung abnormalities will increase with implementation of lung cancer screening, along with increased use of CT for other diagnostic purposes. These abnormalities are associated with radiological progression, increased mortality, and the risk of complications from medical interventions, such as chemotherapy and surgery. Management requires distinguishing interstitial lung abnormalities that represent clinically significant interstitial lung disease from those that are subclinical. In particular, it is important to identify the subpleural fibrotic subtype, which is more likely to progress and to be associated with mortality. This multidisciplinary Position Paper by the Fleischner Society addresses important issues regarding interstitial lung abnormalities, including standardisation of the definition and terminology; predisposing risk factors; clinical outcomes; options for initial evaluation, monitoring, and management; the role of quantitative evaluation; and future research needs.

Pulmonary fibrosis and COVID-19: the potential role for antifibrotic therapy

In December, 2019, reports emerged from Wuhan, China, of a severe acute respiratory disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). By the end of April, 2020, over 3 million people had been confirmed infected, with over 1 million in the USA alone, and over 215 000 deaths. The symptoms associated with COVID-19 are diverse, ranging from mild upper respiratory tract symptoms to severe acute respiratory distress syndrome. The major risk factors for severe COVID-19 are shared with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), namely increasing age, male sex, and comorbidities such as hypertension and diabetes. However, the role of antifibrotic therapy in patients with IPF who contract SARS-CoV-2 infection, and the scientific rationale for their continuation or cessation, is poorly defined. Furthermore, several licensed and potential antifibrotic compounds have been assessed in models of acute lung injury and viral pneumonia. Data from previous coronavirus infections such as severe acute respiratory syndrome and Middle East respiratory syndrome, as well as emerging data from the COVID-19 pandemic, suggest there could be substantial fibrotic consequences following SARS-CoV-2 infection. Antifibrotic therapies that are available or in development could have value in preventing severe COVID-19 in patients with IPF, have the potential to treat severe COVID-19 in patients without IPF, and might have a role in preventing fibrosis after SARS-CoV-2 infection.

The Role of Chest Imaging in Patient Management during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Multinational Consensus Statement from the Fleischner Society

With more than 900 000 confirmed cases worldwide and nearly 50 000 deaths during the first 3 months of 2020, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has emerged as an unprecedented health care crisis. The spread of COVID-19 has been heterogeneous, resulting in some regions having sporadic transmission and relatively few hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and others having community transmission that has led to overwhelming numbers of severe cases. For these regions, health care delivery has been disrupted and compromised by critical resource constraints in diagnostic testing, hospital beds, ventilators, and health care workers who have fallen ill to the virus exacerbated by shortages of personal protective equipment. Although mild cases mimic common upper respiratory viral infections, respiratory dysfunction becomes the principal source of morbidity and mortality as the disease advances. Thoracic imaging with chest radiography and CT are key tools for pulmonary disease diagnosis and management, but their role in the management of COVID-19 has not been considered within the multivariable context of the severity of respiratory disease, pretest probability, risk factors for disease progression, and critical resource constraints. To address this deficit, a multidisciplinary panel comprised principally of radiologists and pulmonologists from 10 countries with experience managing patients with COVID-19 across a spectrum of health care environments evaluated the utility of imaging within three scenarios representing varying risk factors, community conditions, and resource constraints. Fourteen key questions, corresponding to 11 decision points within the three scenarios and three additional clinical situations, were rated by the panel based on the anticipated value of the information that thoracic imaging would be expected to provide. The results were aggregated, resulting in five main and three additional recommendations intended to guide medical practitioners in the use of chest radiography and CT in the management of COVID-19.

Pleuroparenchymal fibroelastosis in systemic sclerosis: prevalence and prognostic impact

Interstitial lung disease (ILD) in systemic sclerosis (SSc) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality, mostly presenting as non-specific interstitial pneumonia. Little is known about the prevalence of pleuroparenchymal fibroelastosis (PPFE), a specific entity affecting the visceral pleura and subpleural parenchyma. We set out to estimate PPFE prevalence in two large cohorts of SSc patients and to assess its impact on survival and functional decline.A total of 359 SSc patients, derived from two referral centres in two different countries (UK and Italy), were included. The first available high-resolution computed tomography scan was independently evaluated by two radiologists blind to clinical information, to quantify ILD extent, freestanding bronchial abnormalities, and lobar percentage involvement of PPFE on a four-point categorical scale. Discordant scores were adjudicated by a third scorer. PPFE extent was further classified as limited (≤2/18) or extensive (>2/18). Results were evaluated against functional decline and mortality.The overall prevalence of PPFE in the combined SSc population was 18% (11% with extensive PPFE), with no substantial difference between the two cohorts. PPFE was significantly linked to free-standing bronchial abnormalities (61% versus 25% in PPFE versus no PPFE; p<0.0001) and to worse survival, independently of ILD severity or short-term lung function changes (HR 1.89, 95% CI 1.10-3.25; p=0.005).In the current study, we provide an exhaustive description of PPFE prevalence and clinical impact in the largest cohort of SSc subjects published so far. PPFE presence should be carefully considered, due to its significant prognostic implications.

The Role of Chest Imaging in Patient Management During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Multinational Consensus Statement From the Fleischner Society

With more than 900,000 confirmed cases worldwide and nearly 50,000 deaths during the first 3 months of 2020, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has emerged as an unprecedented health care crisis. The spread of COVID-19 has been heterogeneous, resulting in some regions having sporadic transmission and relatively few hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and others having community transmission that has led to overwhelming numbers of severe cases. For these regions, health care delivery has been disrupted and compromised by critical resource constraints in diagnostic testing, hospital beds, ventilators, and health care workers who have fallen ill to the virus exacerbated by shortages of personal protective equipment. Although mild cases mimic common upper respiratory viral infections, respiratory dysfunction becomes the principal source of morbidity and mortality as the disease advances. Thoracic imaging with chest radiography and CT are key tools for pulmonary disease diagnosis and management, but their role in the management of COVID-19 has not been considered within the multivariable context of the severity of respiratory disease, pretest probability, risk factors for disease progression, and critical resource constraints. To address this deficit, a multidisciplinary panel comprised principally of radiologists and pulmonologists from 10 countries with experience managing patients with COVID-19 across a spectrum of health care environments evaluated the utility of imaging within three scenarios representing varying risk factors, community conditions, and resource constraints. Fourteen key questions, corresponding to 11 decision points within the three scenarios and three additional clinical situations, were rated by the panel based on the anticipated value of the information that thoracic imaging would be expected to provide. The results were aggregated, resulting in five main and three additional recommendations intended to guide medical practitioners in the use of chest radiography and CT in the management of COVID-19.

The natural history of progressive fibrosing interstitial lung diseases

We used data from the INBUILD and INPULSIS trials to investigate the natural history of progressive fibrosing interstitial lung diseases (ILDs).

Subjects in the two INPULSIS trials had a clinical diagnosis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) while subjects in the INBUILD trial had a progressive fibrosing ILD other than IPF and met protocol-defined criteria for ILD progression despite management. Using data from the placebo groups, we compared the rate of decline in forced vital capacity (FVC) (mL·year⁻¹) and mortality over 52 weeks in the INBUILD trial with pooled data from the INPULSIS trials.

The adjusted mean annual rate of decline in FVC in the INBUILD trial (n=331) was similar to that observed in the INPULSIS trials (n=423) (−192.9 mL·year⁻¹ and −221.0 mL·year⁻¹, respectively; nominal p-value=0.19). The proportion of subjects who had a relative decline in FVC >10% predicted at Week 52 was 48.9% in the INBUILD trial and 48.7% in the INPULSIS trials, and the proportion who died over 52 weeks was 5.1% in the INBUILD trial and 7.8% in the INPULSIS trials. A relative decline in FVC >10% predicted was associated with an increased risk of death in the INBUILD trial (hazard ratio 3.64) and the INPULSIS trials (hazard ratio 3.95).

These findings indicate that patients with fibrosing ILDs other than IPF, who are progressing despite management, have a subsequent clinical course similar to patients with untreated IPF, with a high risk of further ILD progression and early mortality.

Analyses of data from the INBUILD and INPULSIS trials suggest that progressive fibrosing ILDs other than IPF have a clinical course similar to IPF, irrespective of underlying ILD diagnosis or the fibrotic pattern on HRCThttp://bit.ly/3apG0Q5

Mixed Ventilatory Defects in Pulmonary Sarcoidosis: Prevalence and Clinical Features

BACKGROUND

In cohort studies of pulmonary sarcoidosis, abnormal ventilatory patterns have generally been subdivided into restrictive and obstructive defects. Mixed ventilatory defects have largely been overlooked in pulmonary sarcoidosis, as total lung capacity has seldom been taken into account in historical series.

RESEARCH QUESTION

This study evaluated the prevalence of mixed disease in pulmonary sarcoidosis and its clinical associations.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

In patients with pulmonary sarcoidosis (N = 1,110), mixed defects were defined according to American Thoracic Society/European Respiratory Society criteria. Clinical data, pulmonary function variables, and vital status were abstracted from clinical records. Chest radiographs were evaluated independently by two experienced radiologists.

RESULTS

The prevalence of a mixed ventilatory defect was 10.4% in the whole cohort, rising to 25.9% in patients with airflow obstruction. Compared with isolated airflow obstruction, mixed defects were associated with lower diffusing lung capacity for carbon monoxide levels (50.7 ± 16.3 vs 70.8 ± 18.1; P < .0001), a higher prevalence of chest radiographic stage IV disease (63.5% vs 38.3%; P < .0001), and higher mortality (hazard ratio, 2.36; 95% CI, 1.34-4.15; P = .003). These findings were reproduced in all patient subgroup analyses, including patients with a histologic diagnosis, a clinical diagnosis, incident disease, and prevalent disease.

INTERPRETATION

Mixed disease is present in approximately 25% of patients with pulmonary sarcoidosis and airflow obstruction and is associated with lower diffusing lung capacity for carbon monoxide levels, a higher prevalence of stage IV disease, and higher mortality than seen in a pure obstructive defect. These observations identify a distinct phenotype associated with a mixed ventilatory defect, justifying future studies of its clinical and pathogenetic significance.

Serial CT analysis in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: comparison of visual features that determine patient outcome

AIMS

Patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) receiving antifibrotic medication and patients with non-IPF fibrosing lung disease often demonstrate rates of annualised forced vital capacity (FVC) decline within the range of measurement variation (5.0%-9.9%). We examined whether change in visual CT variables could help confirm whether marginal FVC declines represented genuine clinical deterioration rather than measurement noise.

METHODS

In two IPF cohorts (cohort 1: n=103, cohort 2: n=108), separate pairs of radiologists scored paired volumetric CTs (acquired between 6 and 24 months from baseline). Change in interstitial lung disease, honeycombing, reticulation, ground-glass opacity extents and traction bronchiectasis severity was evaluated using a 5-point scale, with mortality prediction analysed using univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses. Both IPF populations were then combined to determine whether change in CT variables could predict mortality in patients with marginal FVC declines.

RESULTS

On univariate analysis, change in all CT variables except ground-glass opacity predicted mortality in both cohorts. On multivariate analysis adjusted for patient age, gender, antifibrotic use and baseline disease severity (diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide), change in traction bronchiectasis severity predicted mortality independent of FVC decline. Change in traction bronchiectasis severity demonstrated good interobserver agreement among both scorer pairs. Across all study patients with marginal FVC declines, change in traction bronchiectasis severity independently predicted mortality and identified more patients with deterioration than change in honeycombing extent.

CONCLUSIONS

Change in traction bronchiectasis severity is a measure of disease progression that could be used to help resolve the clinical importance of marginal FVC declines.

Managing the supportive care needs of those affected by COVID-19

Globally, the number of people affected by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is rapidly increasing. In most (>80%), the illness is relatively mild and can be self-managed out of hospital. However, in about 20% the illness causes respiratory compromise severe enough to require hospital admission [1]. Patients with severe and critical disease need full active treatment. This may include oxygen for hypoxaemia and ventilatory support, along with optimal management of complications, e.g. super-imposed bacterial infection, and any underlying co-morbidities, e.g. chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, congestive heart failure. To date, no antiviral agent has shown to be effective in treating the disease [2].

Bacterial burden in the lower airways predicts disease progression in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and is independent of radiological disease extent

Increasing bacterial burden in the lower airways of patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis confers an increased risk of disease progression and mortality. However, it remains unclear whether this increased bacterial burden directly influences progression of fibrosis or simply reflects the magnitude of the underlying disease extent or severity.We prospectively recruited 193 patients who underwent bronchoscopy and received a multidisciplinary diagnosis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. Quantification of the total bacterial burden in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid was performed by 16S rRNA gene qPCR. Imaging was independently evaluated by two readers assigning quantitative scores for extent, severity and topography of radiographic changes and relationship of these features with bacterial burden was assessed.Increased bacterial burden significantly associated with disease progression (HR 2.1; 95% CI 1.287-3.474; p=0.0028). Multivariate stepwise regression demonstrated no relationship between bacterial burden and radiological features or extent of disease. When specifically considering patients with definite or probable usual interstitial pneumonia there was no difference in bacterial burden between these two groups. Despite a postulated association between pleuroparenchymal fibroelastosis and clinical infection, there was no relationship between either the presence or extent of pleuroparenchymal fibroelastosis and bacterial burden.We demonstrate that bacterial burden in the lower airways is not simply secondary to the extent of the underlying architectural destruction of the lung parenchyma seen in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. The independent nature of this association supports a relationship with the underlying pathogenic mechanisms and highlights the urgent need for functional studies.

Nintedanib in patients with progressive fibrosing interstitial lung diseases-subgroup analyses by interstitial lung disease diagnosis in the INBUILD trial: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-group trial

BACKGROUND

The INBUILD trial investigated the efficacy and safety of nintedanib versus placebo in patients with progressive fibrosing interstitial lung diseases (ILDs) other than idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). We aimed to establish the effects of nintedanib in subgroups based on ILD diagnosis.

METHODS

The INBUILD trial was a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel group trial done at 153 sites in 15 countries. Participants had an investigator-diagnosed fibrosing ILD other than IPF, with chest imaging features of fibrosis of more than 10% extent on high resolution CT (HRCT), forced vital capacity (FVC) of 45% or more predicted, and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (DLco) of at least 30% and less than 80% predicted. Participants fulfilled protocol-defined criteria for ILD progression in the 24 months before screening, despite management considered appropriate in clinical practice for the individual ILD. Participants were randomly assigned 1:1 by means of a pseudo-random number generator to receive nintedanib 150 mg twice daily or placebo for at least 52 weeks. Participants, investigators, and other personnel involved in the trial and analysis were masked to treatment assignment until after database lock. In this subgroup analysis, we assessed the rate of decline in FVC (mL/year) over 52 weeks in patients who received at least one dose of nintedanib or placebo in five prespecified subgroups based on the ILD diagnoses documented by the investigators: hypersensitivity pneumonitis, autoimmune ILDs, idiopathic non-specific interstitial pneumonia, unclassifiable idiopathic interstitial pneumonia, and other ILDs. The trial has been completed and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02999178.

FINDINGS

Participants were recruited between Feb 23, 2017, and April 27, 2018. Of 663 participants who received at least one dose of nintedanib or placebo, 173 (26%) had chronic hypersensitivity pneumonitis, 170 (26%) an autoimmune ILD, 125 (19%) idiopathic non-specific interstitial pneumonia, 114 (17%) unclassifiable idiopathic interstitial pneumonia, and 81 (12%) other ILDs. The effect of nintedanib versus placebo on reducing the rate of FVC decline (mL/year) was consistent across the five subgroups by ILD diagnosis in the overall population (hypersensitivity pneumonitis 73·1 [95% CI -8·6 to 154·8]; autoimmune ILDs 104·0 [21·1 to 186·9]; idiopathic non-specific interstitial pneumonia 141·6 [46·0 to 237·2]; unclassifiable idiopathic interstitial pneumonia 68·3 [-31·4 to 168·1]; and other ILDs 197·1 [77·6 to 316·7]; p=0·41 for treatment by subgroup by time interaction). Adverse events reported in the subgroups were consistent with those reported in the overall population.

INTERPRETATION

The INBUILD trial was not designed or powered to provide evidence for a benefit of nintedanib in specific diagnostic subgroups. However, its results suggest that nintedanib reduces the rate of ILD progression, as measured by FVC decline, in patients who have a chronic fibrosing ILD and progressive phenotype, irrespective of the underlying ILD diagnosis.

FUNDING

Boehringer Ingelheim.

Physiological predictors of survival in patients with sarcoidosis-associated pulmonary hypertension: results from an international registry

Introduction

Sarcoidosis-associated pulmonary hypertension (SAPH) is associated with reduced survival in single-centre studies. The international Registry for SAPH (ReSAPH) with long-term follow-up was established to enrich our knowledge of this complication of sarcoidosis. This analysis aims to elucidate factors associated with reduced transplant-free survival in SAPH patients.

Methods

ReSAPH contains prospectively collected outcomes of SAPH patients since the time of registry enrolment. Information analysed includes right heart catheterisation data, pulmonary function testing, chest radiography, Scadding stage and 6-min walk distance (6MWD), among others. Cox regression models were used to identify independent predictors of transplant-free survival.

Results

Data from 215 patients followed for a mean±sd 2.5±1.9 years were available for analysis. In the 159 precapillary patients, the Kaplan–Meier-adjusted 1-, 3- and 5-year transplant-free survival was 89.2%, 71.7% and 62.0%, respectively. Kaplan–Meier-adjusted 1-, 3- and 5-year transplant-free survival in the incident group was 83.5%, 70.3% and 58.3%, respectively, and in the prevalent group was 94.7%, 72.2% and 66.3%, respectively. Patients with reduced diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (DLCO) (<35% predicted) and 6MWD <300 m in the precapillary cohort had significantly worse transplant-free survival. Reduced 6MWD and preserved forced expiratory volume (FEV1)/forced vital capacity (FVC) ratio were identified as independent risk factors for reduced transplant-free survival in the precapillary cohort.

Conclusion

Reduced DLCO (<35% pred) and 6MWD (<300 m) at the time of registry enrolment were associated with reduced transplant-free survival in the overall precapillary cohort. Preserved FEV1/FVC ratio was identified as an independent risk factor for worsened outcomes.

Patient gender bias on the diagnosis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

Background

Patient sex has clinical and prognostic implications in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). It is not known if sex-related and gender-related discrepancies exist when establishing a diagnosis of IPF. The aim was to determine how patient gender influences the diagnosis of IPF and the physician’s diagnostic confidence.

Methods

This study was performed using clinical cases compiled from a single centre, then scored by respiratory physicians for a prior study. Using clinical information, physicians were asked to provide up to five diagnoses, together with their diagnostic confidence. Logistic regression was used to assess the odds of receiving a diagnosis of IPF based on patient gender. Prognostic discrimination between IPF and non-IPF was used to assess diagnostic accuracy with Cox proportional hazards modelling.

Results

Sixty cases were scored by 404 physicians. IPF was diagnosed more frequently in men compared with women (37.8% vs 10.6%; p<0.0001), and with greater mean diagnostic confidence (p<0.001). The odds of a male patient receiving an IPF diagnosis was greater than that of female patients, after adjusting for confounders (OR=3.05, 95% CI: 2.81 to 3.31), especially if the scan was not definite for the usual interstitial pneumonia pattern. Mortality was higher in women (HR=2.21, 95% CI: 2.02 to 2.41) than in men with an IPF diagnosis (HR=1.26, 95% CI: 1.20 to 1.33), suggesting that men were more often misclassified as having IPF.

Conclusion

Patient gender influences diagnosis of IPF: women may be underdiagnosed and men overdiagnosed with IPF.

Pleuroparenchymal Fibroelastosis. A Review of Clinical, Radiological, and Pathological Characteristics

Pleuroparenchymal fibroelastosis (PPFE) is an unusual pulmonary disease with unique clinical, radiological, and pathological characteristics. Designated a rare idiopathic interstitial pneumonia in 2013, its name refers to a combination of fibrosis involving the visceral pleura and fibroelastotic changes predominating in the subpleural lung parenchyma. Although a number of disease associations have been described, no single cause of PPFE has been unequivocally identified. A diagnosis of PPFE is most commonly achieved by identifying characteristic abnormalities on computed tomographic scans. The earliest changes are consistently located in the upper lobes close to the lung apices, the same locations where subsequent disease progression is also most conspicuous. When sufficiently severe, the disease leads to progressive volume loss of the upper lobes, which, in combination with decreased body mass, produces platythorax. Once regarded as a slowly progressing entity, it is now acknowledged that some patients with PPFE follow an inexorably progressive course that culminates in irreversible respiratory failure and early death. In the absence of effective medical drug treatment, lung transplant remains the only therapeutic option for this disorder. This review focuses on improving early disease recognition and evaluating its pathophysiological impact and discusses working approaches for its management.

Nintedanib in Progressive Fibrosing Interstitial Lung Diseases

BACKGROUND

Preclinical data have suggested that nintedanib, an intracellular inhibitor of tyrosine kinases, inhibits processes involved in the progression of lung fibrosis. Although the efficacy of nintedanib has been shown in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, its efficacy across a broad range of fibrosing lung diseases is unknown.

METHODS

In this double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial conducted in 15 countries, we randomly assigned patients with fibrosing lung disease affecting more than 10% of lung volume on high-resolution computed tomography (CT) to receive nintedanib at a dose of 150 mg twice daily or placebo. All the patients met criteria for progression of interstitial lung disease in the past 24 months despite treatment and had a forced vital capacity (FVC) of at least 45% of the predicted value and a diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide ranging from 30 to less than 80% of the predicted value. Randomization was stratified according to the fibrotic pattern (a pattern of usual interstitial pneumonia [UIP] or other fibrotic patterns) on high-resolution CT. The primary end point was the annual rate of decline in the FVC, as assessed over a 52-week period. The two primary populations for analysis were the overall population and patients with a UIP-like fibrotic pattern.

RESULTS

A total of 663 patients were treated. In the overall population, the adjusted rate of decline in the FVC was -80.8 ml per year with nintedanib and -187.8 ml per year with placebo, for a between-group difference of 107.0 ml per year (95% confidence interval [CI], 65.4 to 148.5; P<0.001). In patients with a UIP-like fibrotic pattern, the adjusted rate of decline in the FVC was -82.9 ml per year with nintedanib and -211.1 ml per year with placebo, for a difference of 128.2 ml (95% CI, 70.8 to 185.6; P<0.001). Diarrhea was the most common adverse event, as reported in 66.9% and 23.9% of patients treated with nintedanib and placebo, respectively. Abnormalities on liver-function testing were more common in the nintedanib group than in the placebo group.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with progressive fibrosing interstitial lung diseases, the annual rate of decline in the FVC was significantly lower among patients who received nintedanib than among those who received placebo. Diarrhea was a common adverse event. (Funded by Boehringer Ingelheim; INBUILD ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02999178.).

Risk factors for disease progression in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

In this retrospective study of a randomised trial of simtuzumab in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), prodromal decline in forced vital capacity (FVC) was significantly associated with increased risk of mortality, respiratory and all-cause hospitalisations, and categorical disease progression. Predictive modelling of progression-free survival event risk was used to assess the effect of population enrichment for patients at risk of rapid progression of IPF; C-index values were 0.64 (death), 0.69 (disease progression), and 0.72 (adjudicated respiratory hospitalisation) and 0.76 (all-cause hospitalisation). Predictive modelling may be a useful tool for improving efficiency of clinical trials with categorical end points.