Protocol analysis and the "silent dog" method of analyzing the impact of self-generated rules

Within the cognitive literature, verbal protocols of cognitive events are plagued by difficult questions of unconsciousness, completeness, reactivity, and validity. In this paper we argue that these concerns apply with much less force or not at all when protocol analysis is used to determine whether a given instance of behavior is governed by self-generated rules. When adequate controls are used, some patterns of results allow this question to be answered unambiguously and in a manner untouched by the philosophical hurdles encountered within the cognitive literature on protocol analysis. We argue that in at least some circumstances a slightly modified version of protocol analysis allows us to know, in a functional sense, what a person was thinking. Protocol analysis can be very useful to behavior analysts who are interested in determining whether task-relevant behavior is controlled by self-generated rules or is purely contingency shaped.

Economic-based projections of future land use in the conterminous United States under alternative policy scenarios

Land-use change significantly contributes to biodiversity loss, invasive species spread, changes in biogeochemical cycles, and the loss of ecosystem services. Planning for a sustainable future requires a thorough understanding of expected land use at the fine spatial scales relevant for modeling many ecological processes and at dimensions appropriate for regional or national-level policy making. Our goal was to construct and parameterize an econometric model of land-use change to project future land use to the year 2051 at a fine spatial scale across the conterminous United States under several alternative land-use policy scenarios. We parameterized the econometric model of land-use change with the National Resource Inventory (NRI) 1992 and 1997 land-use data for 844 000 sample points. Land-use transitions were estimated for five land-use classes (cropland, pasture, range, forest, and urban). We predicted land-use change under four scenarios: business-as-usual, afforestation, removal of agricultural subsidies, and increased urban rents. Our results for the business-as-usual scenario showed widespread changes in land use, affecting 36% of the land area of the conterminous United States, with large increases in urban land (79%) and forest (7%), and declines in cropland (-16%) and pasture (-13%). Areas with particularly high rates of land-use change included the larger Chicago area, parts of the Pacific Northwest, and the Central Valley of California. However, while land-use change was substantial, differences in results among the four scenarios were relatively minor. The only scenario that was markedly different was the afforestation scenario, which resulted in an increase of forest area that was twice as high as the business-as-usual scenario. Land-use policies can affect trends, but only so much. The basic economic and demographic factors shaping land-use changes in the United States are powerful, and even fairly dramatic policy changes, showed only moderate deviations from the business-as-usual scenario. Given the magnitude of predicted land-use change, any attempts to identify a sustainable future or to predict the effects of climate change will have to take likely land-use changes into account. Econometric models that can simulate land-use change for broad areas with fine resolution are necessary to predict trends in ecosystem service provision and biodiversity persistence.

European (IUSTI/WHO) guideline on the management of vaginal discharge, 2011

Three common infections are associated with vaginal discharge: bacterial vaginosis, trichomoniasis and candidiasis, of which trichomoniasis is a sexually transmitted infection (STI). This guideline covers the presentation and clinical findings of these infections and outlines the differential diagnoses. Recommendations for investigation and management based on currently available evidence are made, including the management of persistent and recurrent infections.

Directional limits on persistent gravitational waves using LIGO S5 science data

The gravitational-wave (GW) sky may include nearby pointlike sources as well as stochastic backgrounds. We perform two directional searches for persistent GWs using data from the LIGO S5 science run: one optimized for pointlike sources and one for arbitrary extended sources. Finding no evidence to support the detection of GWs, we present 90% confidence level (C.L.) upper-limit maps of GW strain power with typical values between 2-20×10(-50)  strain(2) Hz(-1) and 5-35×10(-49)  strain(2) Hz(-1) sr(-1) for pointlike and extended sources, respectively. The latter result is the first of its kind. We also set 90% C.L. limits on the narrow-band root-mean-square GW strain from interesting targets including Sco X-1, SN 1987A and the Galactic center as low as ≈7×10(-25) in the most sensitive frequency range near 160 Hz.

Secular trend of adhesive capsulitis

OBJECTIVE

Adhesive capsulitis (AC) is a painful shoulder disorder resulting in restrictions of daily activities. Given the recent increase in risk factors for AC, such as diabetes mellitus, research is needed to examine if the incidence of AC has also increased. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to describe the secular trend of AC.

METHODS

Subjects were from The Health Improvement Network, an electronic medical record database of general practices across the UK from 1995-2008. General practitioners diagnosed AC. We included subjects ages 40-79 years and defined an incident case as the first diagnosis of AC following at least 1 year of enrollment in the database. We examined the potential independent effects of age, calendar time, and birth cohort using an age-period-cohort model. To approximate effect estimates, we applied proportional hazards models and separately adjusted for diabetes mellitus.

RESULTS

Of 2,188,958 subjects (50.0% women), the incidence of AC was 2.36 and 3.38 per 1,000 person-years for men and women, respectively. Age-period-cohort model graphs suggested a secular trend due to a birth cohort, but not calendar effect. For each 10-year increment in birth cohort, the incidence rate increased by 8% in women (hazard ratio 1.08, 95% confidence interval 1.05-1.13). There was no increase in AC incidence for men. Adjusting for diabetes mellitus did not change these associations materially.

CONCLUSION

We found women born more recently are at a higher risk of developing AC compared with women born earlier. Future research is needed to identify risk factors that may be responsible for this increase.

Multiple new Phytophthora species from ITS Clade 6 associated with natural ecosystems in Australia: evolutionary and ecological implications

During surveys of dying vegetation in natural ecosystems and associated waterways in Australia many new taxa have been identified from Phytophthora ITS Clade 6. For representative isolates, the region spanning the internal transcribed spacer region of the ribosomal DNA, the nuclear gene encoding heat shock protein 90 and the mitochondrial cox1 gene were PCR amplified and sequenced. Based on phylogenetic analysis and morphological and physiological comparison, four species and one informally designated taxon have been described; Phytophthora gibbosa, P. gregata, P. litoralis, P. thermophila and P. taxon paludosa. Phytophthora gibbosa, P. gregata and P. taxon paludosa form a new cluster and share a common ancestor; they are homothallic and generally associated with dying vegetation in swampy or water-logged areas. Phytophthora thermophila and P. litoralis are sister species to each other and more distantly to P. gonapodyides. Both new species are common in waterways and cause scattered mortality within native vegetation. They are self-sterile and appear well adapted for survival in an aquatic environment and inundated soils, filling the niche occupied by P. gonapodyides and P. taxon salixsoil in the northern hemisphere. Currently the origin of these new taxa, their pathogenicity and their role in natural ecosystems are unknown. Following the precautionary principle, they should be regarded as a potential threat to native ecosystems and managed to minimise their further spread.