Effectiveness of angiotensin-neprilysin inhibitor treatment versus renin-angiotensin system blockade in older adults with heart failure in clinical care

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the effectiveness of angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitor (ARNI) versus renin-angiotensin system (RAS) blockade alone in older adults with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF).

METHODS

We conducted a cohort study using US Medicare fee-for-service claims data (2014-2017). Patients with HFrEF ≥65 years were identified in two cohorts: (1) initiators of ARNI or RAS blockade alone (ACE inhibitor, ACEI; or angiotensin receptor blocker, ARB) and (2) switchers from an ACEI to either ARNI or ARB. HR with 95% CI from Cox proportional hazard regression and 1-year restricted mean survival time (RMST) difference with 95% CI were calculated for a composite outcome of time to first worsening heart failure event or all-cause mortality after adjustment for 71 pre-exposure characteristics through propensity score fine-stratification weighting. All analyses of initiator and switcher cohorts were conducted separately and then combined using fixed effects.

RESULTS

51 208 patients with a mean age of 76 years were included, with 16 193 in the ARNI group. Adjusted HRs comparing ARNI with RAS blockade alone were 0.92 (95% CI 0.84 to 1.00) among initiators and 0.79 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.85) among switchers, with a combined estimate of 0.84 (95% CI 0.80 to 0.89). Adjusted 1-year RMST difference (95% CI) was 4 days in the initiator cohort (-1 to 9) and 12 days (8 to 17) in the switcher cohort, resulting in a pooled estimate of 9 days (6 to 12) favouring ARNI.

CONCLUSION

ARNI treatment was associated with lower risk of a composite effectiveness endpoint compared with RAS blockade alone in older adults with HFrEF.

Incidence of Venous Thromboembolism in Patients With Dermatologist-Diagnosed Chronic Inflammatory Skin Diseases

Importance

Several studies have linked chronic inflammatory skin diseases (CISDs) with venous thromboembolism (VTE) in a range of data sources with mixed conclusions.

Objective

To examine the incidence of VTE in patients with vs without CISD.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A cohort study using commercial insurance claims data from a nationwide US health care database from January 1, 2004, through 2019 was conducted. A total of 158 123 patients with dermatologist-recorded psoriasis, atopic dermatitis, alopecia areata, vitiligo, or hidradenitis suppurativa were included. Risk-set sampling identified patients without a CISD. Patient follow-up lasted until the first of the following occurred: VTE, death, disenrollment, or end of data stream.

Exposures

Patients with vs without CISD.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Venous thromboembolism events were identified with validated algorithms. Incidence rates were computed before and after 1:1 propensity-score matching to account for VTE risk factors. Hazard ratios were estimated to compare the incidence of VTE in the CISD vs non-CISD cohorts.

Results

A total of 158 123 patients were identified with CISD: with psoriasis (n = 96 138), atopic dermatitis (n = 30 418), alopecia areata (n = 17 889), vitiligo (n = 7735), or HS (n = 5934); 9 patients had 2 of these conditions. A total of 1 570 387 patients were without a CISD. The median follow-up time was 1.9 years (interquartile range, 0.8-4.0 years) in patients with CISD. The incidence rate (per 1000 person-years) of outpatient or inpatient VTE was 1.57 in psoriasis, 1.83 in atopic dermatitis, 0.94 in alopecia areata, 0.93 in vitiligo, 1.65 in HS and 1.53 in CISD overall, compared with 1.76 in patients without a CISD. Incidence rates increased in patients aged 50 years or older (2.3 per 1000 person-years) and decreased in those aged 18 to 49 years (0.8 per 1000 person-years). After propensity-score matching to patients without a CISD, the hazard ratio (HR) of VTE was 0.86 (95% CI, 0.75-0.99) in psoriasis, 1.19 (95% CI, 0.95-1.48) in atopic dermatitis, 0.97 (95% CI, 0.65-1.46) in alopecia areata, 0.90 (95% CI, 0.49-1.65) in vitiligo, 1.64 (95% CI, 0.82-3.27) in hidradenitis suppurativa, and 0.94 (95% CI, 0.84-1.05) in CISD overall.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this large-scale cohort study, CISDs were not associated with an increased incidence of VTE after controlling for relevant VTE risk factors in a representative dermatology patient population.

Calibrating Real-World Evidence Studies Against Randomized Trials: Treatment Effectiveness of Infliximab in Crohn's Disease

Real-world evidence (RWE) on the effectiveness of treatments in Crohn's disease (CD) derived from clinical practice data will help fill many evidence gaps left by randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Emulating RCTs with healthcare database studies may calibrate RWE studies in CD. We aimed to emulate the SONIC trial on the effectiveness of infliximab in patients with CD using US and French healthcare claims data. SONIC had shown improved remission with combination therapy (i.e., infliximab plus thiopurines) compared with infliximab monotherapy. Using claims data (2004-2019) from commercially insured patients in the United States (IBM MarketScan and Optum) and France (Système National des Données de Santé (National Healthcare Data System) (SNDS)), we conducted a cohort study of patients with CD who initiated combination therapy and compared them with patients who initiated infliximab alone. The primary outcome was a composite end point of treatment failure including hospitalization or surgery related to CD, treatment switch, or continuation of corticosteroids 26 weeks after infliximab initiation. Risk ratios (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated in propensity score (PS)-matched cohorts. We identified 1,437 PS-matched pairs of combination therapy vs. infliximab monotherapy users. As in SONIC, the risk of treatment failure was decreased with combination therapy in the overall cohort (RR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.62-0.82; RR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.62-0.97 in SONIC). Findings were consistent across MarketScan, Optum, and SNDS databases: RR (95% CI), 0.83 (0.63-1.10), 0.66 (0.46-0.93), and 0.68 (0.57-0.82), as well as component end points. These robust findings highlight opportunities in RWE analysis for studying treatment effectiveness in patients with CD in clinical practice.

Long-term risk of hepatocellular carcinoma mortality in 23220 hospitalized patients treated with micafungin or other parenteral antifungals

BACKGROUND

Liver tumours observed in rats exposed to micafungin led to a black box warning upon approval in Europe in 2008. Micafungin's risk for liver carcinogenicity in humans has not been investigated. We sought to describe the risk of fatal hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among persons who received micafungin and other parenteral antifungals (PAFs) with up to 12 years of follow-up.

METHODS

We assembled a US multicentre cohort of hospitalized patients who received micafungin or other PAFs between 2005 and 2012. We used propensity score (PS) matching on patient characteristics from electronic medical records to compare rates of HCC mortality identified through the National Death Index though to the end of December 2016. We computed HRs and 95% CIs.

RESULTS

A total of 40110 patients who received a PAF were identified; 6903 micafungin recipients (87% of those identified) were successfully matched to 16317 comparator PAF users. Ten incident HCC deaths, one in the micafungin-exposed group and nine among comparator PAF users, occurred in 71285 person-years of follow-up. The HCC mortality rate was 0.05 per 1000 person-years in micafungin patients and 0.17 per 1000 person-years in comparator PAF patients. The PS-matched HR for micafungin versus comparator PAF was 0.29 (95% CI 0.04-2.24).

CONCLUSIONS

Both micafungin and comparator PAFs were associated with HCC mortality rates of <0.2 per 1000 person-years. Given the very low event rates, any potential risk for HCC should not play a role in clinical decisions regarding treatment with micafungin or other PAFs investigated in this study.

A novel data mining application to detect safety signals for newly approved medications in routine care of patients with diabetes

Background

Clinical trials are often underpowered to detect serious but rare adverse events of a new medication. We applied a novel data mining tool to detect potential adverse events of canagliflozin, the first sodium glucose co‐transporter 2 (SGLT2 inhibitor) in the United States, using real‐world data from shortly after its market entry and before public awareness of its potential safety concerns.

Methods

In a U. S. commercial claims dataset (29 March 2013–30 Sept 2015), two pairwise cohorts of patients over 18 years of age with type 2 diabetes (T2D) who were newly dispensed canagliflozin or an active comparator, that is a dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitor (DPP4) or a glucagon‐like peptide 1 receptor agonist (GLP1), were identified and propensity score‐matched. We used variable ratio matching with up to four people receiving a DPP4 or GLP1 for each person receiving canagliflozin. We identified potential safety signals using a hierarchical tree‐based scan statistic data mining method with the hierarchical outcome tree constructed based on international classification of disease coding. We screened for incident adverse events where there were more outcomes observed among canagliflozin vs. comparator initiators than expected by chance, after adjusting for multiple testing.

Results

We identified two pairwise propensity score variable ratio matched cohorts of 44,733 canagliflozin vs. 99,458 DPP4 initiators, and 55,974 canagliflozin vs. 74,727 GLP1 initiators. When we screened inpatient and emergency room diagnoses, diabetic ketoacidosis was the only severe adverse event associated with canagliflozin initiation with p < .05 in both cohorts. When outpatient diagnoses were also considered, signals for female and male genital infections emerged in both cohorts (p < .05).

Conclusions and relevance

In a large population‐based study, we identified known but no other adverse events associated with canagliflozin, providing reassurance on its safety among adult patients with T2D and suggesting the tree‐based scan statistic method is a useful post‐marketing safety monitoring tool for newly approved medications.

Greedy caliper propensity score matching can yield variable estimates of the treatment-outcome association-A simulation study

PURPOSE

Greedy caliper propensity score (PS) matching is dependent on randomness, which can ultimately affect causal estimates. We sought to investigate the variation introduced by this randomness.

METHODS

Based on a literature search to define the simulation parameters, we simulated 36 cohorts of different sizes, treatment prevalence, outcome prevalence, treatment-outcome-association. We performed 1:1 caliper and nearest neighbor (NN) caliper PS-matching and repeated this 1000 times in the same cohort, before calculating the treatment-outcome association.

RESULTS

Repeating caliper and NN caliper matching in the same cohort yielded large variations in effect estimates, in all 36 scenarios, with both types of matching. The largest variation was found in smaller cohorts, where the odds ratio (OR) ranged from 0.53 to 10.00 (IQR of ORs: 1.11-1.67). The 95% confidence interval was not consistently overlapping a neutral association after repeating the matching with both algorithms. We confirmed these findings in a noninterventional example study.

CONCLUSION

Caliper PS-matching can yield highly variable estimates of the treatment-outcome association if the analysis is repeated.

Real world effects of COPD medications: a cohort study with validation against results from randomised controlled trials

Real-world data provide the potential for generating evidence on drug treatment effects in groups excluded from trials, but rigorous, validated methodology for doing so is lacking. We investigated whether non-interventional methods applied to real-world data could reproduce results from the landmark TORCH COPD trial.We performed a historical cohort study (2000-2017) of COPD drug treatment effects in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). Two control groups were selected from CPRD by applying TORCH inclusion/exclusion criteria and 1:1 matching to TORCH participants, as follows. Control group 1: people with COPD not prescribed fluticasone propionate (FP)-salmeterol (SAL); control group 2: people with COPD prescribed SAL only. FP-SAL exposed groups were then selected from CPRD by propensity score matching to each control group. Outcomes studied were COPD exacerbations, death from any cause and pneumonia.2652 FP-SAL exposed people were propensity score matched to 2652 FP-SAL unexposed people while 991 FP-SAL exposed people were propensity score matched to 991 SAL exposed people. Exacerbation rate ratio was comparable to TORCH for FP-SAL versus SAL (0.85, 95% CI 0.74-0.97 versus 0.88, 0.81-0.95) but not for FP-SAL versus no FP-SAL (1.30, 1.19-1.42 versus 0.75, 0.69-0.81). In addition, active comparator results were consistent with TORCH for mortality (hazard ratio 0.93, 0.65-1.32 versus 0.93, 0.77-1.13) and pneumonia (risk ratio 1.39, 1.04-1.87 versus 1.47, 1.25-1.73).We obtained very similar results to the TORCH trial for active comparator analyses, but were unable to reproduce placebo-controlled results. Application of these validated methods for active comparator analyses to groups excluded from randomised controlled trials provides a practical way for contributing to the evidence base and supporting COPD treatment decisions.

Comparative Effectiveness and Safety of Sodium-Glucose Cotransporter 2 Inhibitors Versus Glucagon-Like Peptide 1 Receptor Agonists in Older Adults

OBJECTIVE

Both sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) and glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA) demonstrated cardiovascular benefits in randomized controlled trials of patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) generally <65 years old and mostly with cardiovascular disease. We aimed to evaluate the comparative effectiveness and safety of SGLT2i and GLP-1RA among real-world older adults.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Using Medicare data (April 2013-December 2016), we identified 90,094 propensity score-matched (1:1) T2D patients ≥66 years old initiating SGLT2i or GLP-1RA. Primary outcomes were major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) (i.e., myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular death) and hospitalization for heart failure (HHF). Other outcomes included diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA), genital infections, fractures, lower-limb amputations (LLA), acute kidney injury (AKI), severe urinary tract infections, and overall mortality. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and rate differences (RDs) per 1,000 person-years, controlling for 140 baseline covariates.

RESULTS

Compared with GLP-1RA, SGLT2i initiators had similar MACE risk (HR 0.98 [95% CI 0.87, 1.10]; RD -0.38 [95% CI -2.48, 1.72]) and reduced HHF risk (HR 0.68 [95% CI 0.57, 0.80]; RD -3.23 [95% CI -4.68, -1.77]), over a median follow-up of ∼6 months. They also had 0.7 more DKA events (RD 0.72 [95% CI 0.02, 1.41]), 0.9 more LLA (RD 0.90 [95% CI 0.10, 1.70]), 57.1 more genital infections (RD 57.08 [95% CI 53.45, 60.70]), and 7.1 fewer AKI events (RD -7.05 [95% CI -10.27, -3.83]) per 1,000 person-years.

CONCLUSIONS

Among older adults, those taking SGLT2i had similar MACE risk, decreased HHF risk, and increased risk of DKA, LLA, and genital infections versus those taking GLP-1RA.

Real-World Evidence for Assessing Pharmaceutical Treatments in the Context of COVID-19

The emergence and global spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has resulted in an urgent need for evidence on medical interventions and outcomes of the resulting disease, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Although many randomized controlled trials (RCTs) evaluating treatments and vaccines for COVID-19 are already in progress, the number of clinical questions of interest greatly outpaces the available resources to conduct RCTs. Therefore, there is growing interest in whether nonrandomized real-world evidence (RWE) can be used to supplement RCT evidence and aid in clinical decision making, but concerns about nonrandomized RWE have been highlighted by a proliferation of RWE studies on medications and COVID-19 outcomes with widely varying conclusions. The objective of this paper is to review some clinical questions of interest, potential data types, challenges, and merits of RWE in COVID-19, resulting in recommendations for nonrandomized RWE designs and analyses based on established RWE principles.

Measuring Frailty in Administrative Claims Data: Comparative Performance of Four Claims-Based Frailty Measures in the U.S. Medicare Data

BACKGROUND

There has been increasing effort to measure frailty in the U.S. Medicare data. The performance of claims-based frailty measures has not been compared.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study included 3,097 community-dwelling fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries (mean age 75.6 years) who participated in the 2008 Health and Retirement Study examination. Four claims-based frailty measures developed by Davidoff, Faurot, Segal, and Kim were compared against frailty phenotype, a deficit-accumulation frailty index (FI), and activities of daily living (ADL) dependence using Spearman correlation coefficients and C-statistics.

RESULTS

Claims-based frailty measures were positively associated with frailty phenotype (prevalence in ≤10th vs >90th percentile: 8.0% vs 41.3% for Davidoff; 5.9% vs 53.1% for Faurot; 3.3% vs 48.0% for Segal; 2.9% vs 51.0% for Kim) and FI (mean in ≤10th vs >90th percentile: 0.17 vs 0.33 for Davidoff; 0.13 vs 0.37 for Faurot; 0.12 vs 0.31 for Segal; 0.10 vs 0.37 for Kim). The age and sex-adjusted C-statistics for frailty phenotype for Davidoff, Faurot, Segal, and Kim indices were 0.73, 0.74, 0.73, and 0.78, respectively, and partial correlation coefficients with FI were 0.18, 0.32, 0.26, and 0.55, respectively. The results for ADL dependence were similar (prevalence in ≤10th vs >90th percentile: 3.7% vs 50.5% for Davidoff; 2.3% vs 55.0% for Faurot; 3.0% vs 38.3% for Segal; 2.3% vs 50.8% for Kim). The age and sex-adjusted C-statistics for the indices were 0.79, 0.80, 0.74, and 0.81, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The choice of a claims-based frailty measure can influence the identification of older adults with frailty and disability in Medicare data.

Emulating Randomized Clinical Trials With Nonrandomized Real-World Evidence Studies: First Results From the RCT DUPLICATE Initiative

BACKGROUND

Regulators are evaluating the use of noninterventional real-world evidence (RWE) studies to assess the effectiveness of medical products. The RCT DUPLICATE initiative (Randomized, Controlled Trials Duplicated Using Prospective Longitudinal Insurance Claims: Applying Techniques of Epidemiology) uses a structured process to design RWE studies emulating randomized, controlled trials (RCTs) and compare results. We report findings of the first 10 trial emulations, evaluating cardiovascular outcomes of antidiabetic or antiplatelet medications.

METHODS

We selected 3 active-controlled and 7 placebo-controlled RCTs for replication. Using patient-level claims data from US commercial and Medicare payers, we implemented inclusion and exclusion criteria, selected primary end points, and comparator populations to emulate those of each corresponding RCT. Within the trial-mimicking populations, we conducted propensity score matching to control for >120 preexposure confounders. All study measures were prospectively defined and protocols registered before hazard ratios and 95% CIs were computed. Success criteria for the primary analysis were prespecified for each replication.

RESULTS

Despite attempts to emulate RCT design as closely as possible, differences between the RCT and corresponding RWE study populations remained. The regulatory conclusions were equivalent in 6 of 10. The RWE emulations achieved a hazard ratio estimate that was within the 95% CI from the corresponding RCT in 8 of 10 studies. In 9 of 10, either the regulatory or estimate agreement success criteria were fulfilled. The largest differences in effect estimates were found for RCTs where second-generation sulfonylureas were used as a proxy for placebo regarding cardiovascular effects. Nine of 10 replications had a standardized difference between effect estimates of <2, which suggests differences within expected random variation.

CONCLUSIONS

Agreement between RCT and RWE findings varies depending on which agreement metric is used. Interim findings indicate that selection of active comparator therapies with similar indications and use patterns enhances the validity of RWE. Even in the context of active comparators, concordance between RCT and RWE findings is not guaranteed, partially because trials are not emulated exactly. More trial emulations are needed to understand how often and in what contexts RWE findings match RCTs. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifiers: NCT03936049, NCT04215523, NCT04215536, NCT03936010, NCT03936036, NCT03936062, NCT03936023, NCT03648424, NCT04237935, NCT04237922.

Pharmacotherapy for Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19: Treatment Patterns by Disease Severity

BACKGROUND

Treatment decisions for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) depend on disease severity, but the prescribing pattern by severity and drivers of therapeutic choices remain unclear.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives of the study were to evaluate pharmacological treatment patterns by COVID-19 severity and identify the determinants of prescribing for COVID-19.

METHODS

Using electronic health record data from a large Massachusetts-based healthcare system, we identified all patients aged ≥ 18 years hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 from 1 March to 24 May, 2020. We defined five levels of COVID-19 severity at hospital admission: (1) hospitalized but not requiring supplemental oxygen; (2-4) hospitalized and requiring oxygen ≤ 2, 3-4, and ≥ 5 L per minute, respectively; and (5) intubated or admitted to an intensive care unit. We assessed the medications used to treat COVID-19 or as supportive care during hospitalization.

RESULTS

Among 2821 patients hospitalized for COVID-19, we found inpatient mortality increased by severity from 5% for level 1 to 23% for level 5. As compared to patients with severity level 1, those with severity level 5 were 3.53 times (95% confidence interval 2.73-4.57) more likely to receive a medication used to treat COVID-19. Other predictors of treatment were fever, low oxygen saturation, presence of co-morbidities, and elevated inflammatory biomarkers. The use of most COVID-19 relevant medications has dropped substantially while the use of remdesivir and therapeutic anticoagulants has increased over the study period.

CONCLUSIONS

Careful consideration of disease severity and other determinants of COVID-19 drug use is necessary for appropriate conduct and interpretation of non-randomized studies evaluating outcomes of COVID-19 treatments.

Targeting abnormal metabolism in Alzheimer's disease: The Drug Repurposing for Effective Alzheimer's Medicines (DREAM) study

Drug discovery for disease-modifying therapies for Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) based on the traditional paradigm of experimental animal models has been disappointing. We describe the rationale and design of the Drug Repurposing for Effective Alzheimer's Medicines (DREAM) study, an innovative multidisciplinary alternative to traditional drug discovery. First, we use a systems biology perspective in the "hypothesis generation" phase to identify metabolic abnormalities that may either precede or interact with the accumulation of ADRD neuropathology, accelerating the expression of clinical symptoms of the disease. Second, in the "hypothesis refinement" phase we propose use of large patient cohorts to test whether drugs approved for other indications that also target metabolic drivers of ADRD pathogenesis might alter the trajectory of the disease. We emphasize key challenges in population-based pharmacoepidemiologic studies aimed at quantifying the association between medication use and ADRD onset and outline robust causal inference principles to safeguard against common pitfalls. Candidate ADRD treatments emerging from this approach will hold promise as plausible disease-modifying therapies for evaluation in randomized controlled trials.

Clinical outcomes following bone marrow transplantation in patients with sickle cell disease: A cohort study of US Medicaid enrollees

OBJECTIVES

Bone marrow transplantation (BMT) is currently the only curative therapy available for patients with sickle cell disease (SCD), but clinical outcomes in routine care are not well understood. We describe the rates of vaso-occlusive crises (VOCs), transplant complications, and mortality in SCD patients after BMT.

METHODS

A cohort study of SCD patients who underwent BMT was designed using US Medicaid claims data (2000-2013).

RESULTS

A total of 204 SCD patients undergoing BMT were identified with a mean (SD) age of 10.6 (7.3) years, with 52.9% male and 67.6% African American. The overall VOC rate was 0.99 per person-year (95% CI: 0.91-1.07) over a median follow-up time of 2.1 years (IQR: 0.8-4.3 years). A total of 138 (67.6%) remained free of VOCs. The mortality rate was 1.7 (95% CI: 0.9-3.1) per 100 person-years, transplant-related complications occurred among 113 (55.4%) patients with an incidence rate of 38.2 (95% CI: 31.7-45.9) per 100 person-years, while 47 (23%) patients had GvHD with an incidence rate of 8.0 (95% CI: 6.0-10.7) per 100 person-years.

CONCLUSION

Two thirds of the BMT recipients remained VOC-free over 2 years of follow-up, but transplant-related complications, including GvHD occurred with high frequency. This highlights a continuing unmet need for alternative curative interventions in SCD.

Improving transparency to build trust in real-world secondary data studies for hypothesis testing-Why, what, and how: recommendations and a road map from the real-world evidence transparency initiative

Real-world data (RWD) and the derivations of these data into real-world evidence (RWE) are rapidly expanding from informing healthcare decisions at the patient and health system level to influencing major health policy decisions, including regulatory approvals and coverage. Recent examples include the approval of palbociclib in combination with endocrine therapy for male breast cancer and the inclusion of RWE in the label of paliperidone palmitate for schizophrenia. This interest has created an urgency to develop processes that promote trust in the evidence-generation process. Key stakeholders and decision-makers include patients and their healthcare providers; learning health systems; health technology assessment bodies and payers; pharmacoepidemiologists and other clinical reseachers, and policy makers interested in bioethical and regulatory issues. A key to optimal uptake of RWE is transparency of the research process to enable decision-makers to evaluate the quality of the methods used and the applicability of the evidence that results from the RWE studies. Registration of RWE studies-particularly for hypothesis evaluating treatment effectiveness (HETE) studies-has been proposed to improve transparency, trust, and research replicability. Although registration would not guarantee better RWE studies would be conducted, it would encourage the prospective disclosure of study plans, timing, and rationale for modifications. A joint task force of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) and the International Society for Pharmacoepidemiology (ISPE) recommended that investigators preregister their RWE studies and post their study protocols in a publicly available forum before starting studies to reduce publication bias and improve the transparency of research methods. Recognizing that published recommendations alone are insufficient, especially without accessible registration options and with no incentives, a group of experts gathered on February 25 and 26, 2019, in National Harbor, Maryland, to explore the structural and practical challenges to the successful implementation of the recommendations of the ISPOR/ISPE task force for preregistration. This positioning article describes a plan for making registration of HETE RWE studies routine. The plan includes specifying the rationale for registering HETE RWE studies, the studies that should be registered, where and when these studies should be registered, how and when analytic deviations from protocols should be reported, how and when to publish results, and incentives to encourage registration. Table 1 summarizes the rationale, goals, and potential solutions that increase transparency, in addition to unique concerns about secondary data studies. Definitions of terms used throughout this report are provided in Table 2.

Improving Transparency to Build Trust in Real-World Secondary Data Studies for Hypothesis Testing-Why, What, and How: Recommendations and a Road Map from the Real-World Evidence Transparency Initiative

Real-world data (RWD) and the derivations of these data into real-world evidence (RWE) are rapidly expanding from informing healthcare decisions at the patient and health system level to influencing major health policy decisions, including regulatory approvals and coverage. Recent examples include the approval of palbociclib in combination with endocrine therapy for male breast cancer and the inclusion of RWE in the label of paliperidone palmitate for schizophrenia. This interest has created an urgency to develop processes that promote trust in the evidence-generation process. Key stakeholders and decision-makers include patients and their healthcare providers; learning health systems; health technology assessment bodies and payers; pharmacoepidemiologists and other clinical reseachers, and policy makers interested in bioethical and regulatory issues. A key to optimal uptake of RWE is transparency of the research process to enable decision-makers to evaluate the quality of the methods used and the applicability of the evidence that results from the RWE studies. Registration of RWE studies-particularly for hypothesis evaluating treatment effectiveness (HETE) studies-has been proposed to improve transparency, trust, and research replicability. Although registration would not guarantee better RWE studies would be conducted, it would encourage the prospective disclosure of study plans, timing, and rationale for modifications. A joint task force of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) and the International Society for Pharmacoepidemiology (ISPE) recommended that investigators preregister their RWE studies and post their study protocols in a publicly available forum before starting studies to reduce publication bias and improve the transparency of research methods. Recognizing that published recommendations alone are insufficient, especially without accessible registration options and with no incentives, a group of experts gathered on February 25 and 26, 2019, in National Harbor, Maryland, to explore the structural and practical challenges to the successful implementation of the recommendations of the ISPOR/ISPE task force for preregistration. This positioning article describes a plan for making registration of HETE RWE studies routine. The plan includes specifying the rationale for registering HETE RWE studies, the studies that should be registered, where and when these studies should be registered, how and when analytic deviations from protocols should be reported, how and when to publish results, and incentives to encourage registration. Table 1 summarizes the rationale, goals, and potential solutions that increase transparency, in addition to unique concerns about secondary data studies. Definitions of terms used throughout this report are provided in Table 2.

Risk of amputation with canagliflozin across categories of age and cardiovascular risk in three US nationwide databases: cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the rate of lower limb amputation among adults newly prescribed canagliflozin according to age and cardiovascular disease.

DESIGN

Population based, new user, cohort study.

DATA SOURCES

Two commercial and Medicare claims databases, 2013-17.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients newly prescribed canagliflozin were propensity score matched 1:1 with patients newly prescribed a glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist. Hazard ratios and rate differences per 1000 person years were computed for the rate of lower limb amputation in the following four groups: group 1, patients aged less than 65 years without baseline cardiovascular disease; group 2, patients aged less than 65 with baseline cardiovascular disease; group 3, patients aged 65 or older without baseline cardiovascular disease; group 4, patients aged 65 or older with baseline cardiovascular disease. Within each group, pooled hazard ratio and rate difference per 1000 person years were calculated by meta-analysis.

INTERVENTION

Canagliflozin versus a GLP-1 agonist.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Lower limb amputation requiring surgery.

RESULTS

Across the three databases, 310 840 propensity score matched adults who started canagliflozin or a GLP-1 agonist were identified. The hazard ratio and rate difference per 1000 person years for amputation in adults receiving canagliflozin compared with a GLP-1 agonist for each group was: group 1, hazard ratio 1.09 (95% confidence interval 0.83 to 1.43), rate difference 0.12 (-0.31 to 0.55); group 2, hazard ratio 1.18 (0.86 to 1.62), rate difference 1.06 (-1.77 to 3.89); group 3, hazard ratio 1.30 (0.52 to 3.26), rate difference 0.47 (-0.73 to 1.67); and group 4, hazard ratio 1.73 (1.30 to 2.29), rate difference 3.66 (1.74 to 5.59).

CONCLUSIONS

The increase in rate of amputation with canagliflozin was small and most apparent on an absolute scale for adults aged 65 or older with baseline cardiovascular disease, resulting in a number needed to treat for an additional harmful outcome of 556 patients at six months (that is, 18 more amputations per 10 000 people who received canagliflozin). These results help to contextualize the risk of amputation with canagliflozin in routine care.

Risk Factors for Heart Failure with Preserved or Reduced Ejection Fraction Among Medicare Beneficiaries: Application of Competing Risks Analysis and Gradient Boosted Model

BACKGROUND

The differential impact of various demographic characteristics and comorbid conditions on development of heart failure (HF) with preserved (pEF) and reduced ejection fraction (rEF) is not well studied among the elderly.

METHODS

Using Medicare claims data linked to electronic health records, we conducted an observational cohort study of individuals ≥65 years of age without HF. A Cox proportional hazards model accounting for competing risk of HFrEF and HFpEF incidence was constructed. A gradient-boosted model (GBM) assessed the relative influence (RI) of each predictor in the development of HFrEF and HFpEF.

RESULTS

Among 138,388 included individuals, 9701 developed HF (incidence rate = 20.9 per 1000 person-years). Males were more likely to develop HFrEF than HFpEF (HR = 2.07, 95% CI: 1.81-2.37 vs. 1.11, 95% CI: 1.02-1.20, P for heterogeneity <0.01). Atrial fibrillation and pulmonary hypertension had stronger associations with the risk of HFpEF (HR = 2.02, 95% CI: 1.80-2.26 and 1.66, 95% CI: 1.23-2.22) while cardiomyopathy and myocardial infarction were more strongly associated with HFrEF (HR = 4.37, 95% CI: 3.21-5.97 and 1.94, 95% CI: 1.23-3.07). Age was the strongest predictor across all HF subtypes with RI from GBM >35%. Atrial fibrillation was the most influential comorbidity for the development of HFpEF (RI = 8.4%) while cardiomyopathy was the most influential comorbidity for the development of HFrEF (RI = 20.7%).

CONCLUSION

These findings of heterogeneous relationships between several important risk factors and heart failure types underline the potential differences in the etiology of HFpEF and HFrEF.

Risk of connective tissue disease, morphoea and systemic vasculitis in patients with hidradenitis suppurativa

BACKGROUND

Hidradenitis suppurativa (HS) has been associated with auto-inflammatory conditions, yet the risk of developing connective tissue disease (CTD), morphoea and systemic vasculitis has not been well-characterized.

OBJECTIVES

We sought to evaluate the risk of developing CTD, morphoea and systemic vasculitis in patients with HS.

METHODS

Using claims data, we identified patients with HS and used 2 : 1 risk-set sampling to identify patients without HS. Patients with existing CTD were excluded. Patient follow-up lasted until first occurrence of the following events: the occurrence of outcome (i.e. systemic lupus erythematosus, morphoea, systemic sclerosis, Sjogren's Syndrome and systemic vasculitis), death, disenrolment or end of data stream. Hazard ratios (HR) of developing CTD, morphoea and systemic vasculitis were computed after 1 : 1 propensity score (PS) matching.

RESULTS

After 2 : 1 risk-set sampling, we identified 78 122 HS patients and 156 247 non-HS comparators. The mean follow-up was 540 days. After PS matching, HS patients had an increased risk of systemic lupus erythematosus HR = 1.63 (1.31-2.03) and morphoea HR = 2.02 (1.32-3.11), compared to non-HS patients. We did not observe an increased risk for systemic sclerosis HR = 0.90 (0.59-1.44), Sjogren's Syndrome HR = 0.91 (0.73-1.14) or systemic vasculitis HR = 0.87 (0.64-1.20).

CONCLUSION

In this population-based study, we observed an increased risk of developing systemic lupus erythematous and morphoea subsequent to a first-recorded diagnosis of hidradenitis suppurativa.

Validation of a Claims-Based Frailty Index Against Physical Performance and Adverse Health Outcomes in the Health and Retirement Study

BACKGROUND

A claims-based frailty index (CFI) was developed based on a deficit-accumulation approach using self-reported health information. This study aimed to independently validate the CFI against physical performance and adverse health outcomes.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included 3,642 community-dwelling older adults who had at least 1 health care encounter in the year prior to assessments of physical performance in the 2008 Health and Retirement Study wave. A CFI was estimated from Medicare claims data in the past year. Gait speed, grip strength, and the 2-year risk of death, institutionalization, disability, hospitalization, and prolonged (>30 days) skilled nursing facility (SNF) stay were evaluated for CFI categories (robust: <0.15, prefrail: 0.15-0.24, mildly frail: 0.25-0.34, moderate-to-severely frail: ≥0.35).

RESULTS

The prevalence of robust, prefrail, mildly frail, and moderate-to-severely frail state was 52.7%, 38.0%, 7.1%, and 2.2%, respectively. Individuals with higher CFI had lower mean gait speed (moderate-to-severely frail vs robust: 0.39 vs 0.78 m/s) and weaker grip strength (19.8 vs 28.5 kg). Higher CFI was associated with death (moderate-to-severely frail vs robust: 46% vs 7%), institutionalization (21% vs 5%), activity of daily living disability (33% vs 9%), instrumental activity of daily living disability (100% vs 22%), hospitalization (79% vs 23%), and prolonged SNF stay (17% vs 2%). The odds ratios per 1-SD (=0.07) difference in CFI were 1.46-2.06 for these outcomes, which remained statistically significant after adjustment for age, sex, and a comorbidity index.

CONCLUSION

The CFI is useful to identify individuals with poor physical function and at greater risks of adverse health outcomes in Medicare data.