The Breakthrough Generations Study: design of a long-term UK cohort study to investigate breast cancer aetiology

BACKGROUND

The rationale, design, recruitment and follow-up methods are described for the Breakthrough Generations Study, a UK cohort study started in 2003, targeted at investigation of breast cancer aetiology.

METHODS

Cohort members have been recruited by a participant referral method intended to assemble economically a large general population cohort from whom detailed questionnaire information and blood samples can be obtained repeatedly over decades, with high completeness of follow-up and inclusion of large numbers of related individuals. 'First-generation' recruits were women contacted directly, or who volunteered directly, to join the study. They nominated female friends and family, whom we contacted, and those who joined ('second generation') nominated others, reiterated for up to 28 generations.

RESULTS

The method has successfully been used during 2003-2011 to recruit 112,049 motivated participants with a broad geographic and socioeconomic distribution, aged 16-102 years, who have completed detailed questionnaires; 92% of the participants gave blood samples at recruitment. When eligible, 2½ years after recruitment, >98% completed the first follow-up questionnaire. Thirty percent are first-degree relatives of other study members.

CONCLUSION

The 'generational' recruitment method has enabled recruitment of a large cohort who appear to have the commitment to enable long-term continuing data and sample collection, to investigate the effects of changing endogenous and exogenous factors on cancer risk.

Secular trends in age at menarche in women in the UK born 1908-93: results from the Breakthrough Generations Study

Menarcheal age decreased over time in Western countries until cohorts born in the mid-20th century. It then stabilised, but limited data are available for recent cohorts. Menarche data were collected retrospectively by questionnaire in 2003-10 from 94,170 women who were participating in the Breakthrough Generations Study, aged 16-98 years, born 1908-93 and resident in the UK. Average menarcheal age declined from women born in 1908-19 (mean=13.5 years) to those born in 1945-49 (mean=12.6 years). It was then stable for several birth cohorts, but resumed its downward trend in recent cohorts (mean=12.3 years in 1990-93 cohort). Trends differed between socio-economic groups, but the recent decline was present in each group. In conclusion, menarcheal age appears to have decreased again in recent cohorts after a period of stabilisation.

A novel approach to exploring potential interactions among single-nucleotide polymorphisms of inflammation genes in gliomagenesis: an exploratory case-only study

BACKGROUND

Despite extensive research on the topic, glioma etiology remains largely unknown. Exploration of potential interactions between single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) of immune genes is a promising new area of glioma research. The case-only study design is a powerful and efficient design for exploring possible multiplicative interactions between factors that are independent of one another. The purpose of our study was to use this exploratory design to identify potential pair wise SNP-SNP interactions from genes involved in several different immune-related pathways for investigation in future studies.

METHODS

The study population consisted of two case groups: 1,224 histologic confirmed, non-Hispanic white glioma cases from the United States and a validation population of 634 glioma cases from the United Kingdom. Polytomous logistic regression, in which one SNP was coded as the outcome and the other SNP was included as the exposure, was utilized to calculate the ORs of the likelihood of cases simultaneously having the variant alleles of two different SNPs. Potential interactions were examined only between SNPs located in different genes or chromosomes.

RESULTS

Using this data mining strategy, we found 396 significant SNP-SNP interactions among polymorphisms of immune-related genes that were present in both the U.S. and U.K. study populations.

CONCLUSION

This exploratory study was conducted for the purpose of hypothesis generation, and thus has provided several new hypotheses that can be tested using traditional case-control study designs to obtain estimates of risk.

IMPACT

This is the first study, to our knowledge, to take this novel approach to identifying SNP-SNP interactions relevant to glioma etiology.

Familial concordance for age at menarche: analyses from the Breakthrough Generations Study

Age at menarche is correlated within families, but estimates of the heritability of menarcheal age have a wide range (0.45-0.95). We examined the familial resemblance for age at menarche and the extent to which this is due to genetic and shared environmental factors. Between 2003 and 2010 data were retrospectively collected by questionnaire from participants within the UK-based Breakthrough Generations Study. These analyses included 25,970 female participants aged 16-98 with at least one female relative who was also a study participant. A woman's menarche was significantly delayed for each yearly increase in the menarcheal age of her monozygotic twin (average increase = 7.2 months, P < 0.001), dizygotic twin (average increase = 3.0 months, P = 0.03), older sister (average increase = 3.3 months, P < 0.001), mother (average increase = 3.4 months, P < 0.001), maternal grandmother (average increase = 1.5 months, P = 0.04), maternal aunt (average increase = 1.4 months, P < 0.001) and paternal aunt (average increase = 3.0 months, P < 0.001). There was not a significant association between the menarcheal ages of half-sister pairs or of paternal grandmother-granddaughter pairs, based on small numbers. Heritability was estimated as 0.57 [95% confidence interval 0.53, 0.61]. Shared environmental factors did not have an effect in the model. In conclusion, approximately half of the variation in age at menarche was attributable to additive genetic effects with the remainder attributable to non-shared environmental effects.

A genome-wide association study of Hodgkin's lymphoma identifies new susceptibility loci at 2p16.1 (REL), 8q24.21 and 10p14 (GATA3)

To identify susceptibility loci for classical Hodgkin's lymphoma (cHL), we conducted a genome-wide association study of 589 individuals with cHL (cases) and 5,199 controls with validation in four independent samples totaling 2,057 cases and 3,416 controls. We identified three new susceptibility loci at 2p16.1 (rs1432295, REL, odds ratio (OR) = 1.22, combined P = 1.91 × 10(-8)), 8q24.21 (rs2019960, PVT1, OR = 1.33, combined P = 1.26 × 10(-13)) and 10p14 (rs501764, GATA3, OR = 1.25, combined P = 7.05 × 10(-8)). Furthermore, we confirmed the role of the major histocompatibility complex in disease etiology by revealing a strong human leukocyte antigen (HLA) association (rs6903608, OR = 1.70, combined P = 2.84 × 10(-50)). These data provide new insight into the pathogenesis of cHL.

Biologic markers of sun exposure and melanoma risk in women: pooled case-control analysis

A model has been proposed whereby melanomas arise through two distinct pathways dependent on the relative influence of host susceptibility and sun exposure. Such pathways may explain site-specific patterns of melanoma occurrence. To explore this model, we investigated the relationship between melanoma risk and general markers of acute (recalled sunburns) and chronic (prevalent solar keratoses) sun exposure, stratified by anatomic site and host phenotype. Our working hypothesis was that head and neck melanomas have stronger associations with solar keratoses and weaker associations with sunburn than trunk melanomas. We conducted a collaborative analysis using original data from women subjects of 11 case-control studies of melanoma (2,575 cases, 3,241 controls). We adjusted for potential confounding effects of sunlamp use and sunbathing. The magnitude of sunburn associations did not differ significantly by melanoma site, nevus count or histologic subtype of melanoma. Across all sites, relative risk of melanoma increased with an increasing number of reported lifetime "painful" sunburns, lifetime "severe" sunburns and "severe" sunburns in youth (p(trend) < 0.001), with pooled odds ratios (pORs) for the highest category of sunburns versus no sunburns of 3.22 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.04-5.09] for lifetime "painful" sunburns, 2.10 (95%CI 1.30-3.38) for lifetime "severe" sunburns and 2.43 (95%CI 1.61-3.65) for "severe" sunburns in youth. Solar keratoses strongly increased the risk of head and neck melanoma (pOR 4.91, 95%CI 2.10-11.46), but data were insufficient to assess risk for other sites. Reported sunburn is strongly associated with melanoma on all major body sites.

Determinants of age at menarche in the UK: analyses from the Breakthrough Generations Study

BACKGROUND

Early menarche increases breast cancer risk but, aside from weight, information on its determinants is limited.

METHODS

Age at menarche data were collected retrospectively by questionnaire from 81,606 women aged 16-98, resident in the UK and participating in the Breakthrough Generations Study.

RESULTS

Menarche occurred earlier in women who had a low birthweight (P(trend)<0.001), were singletons (P<0.001), had prenatal exposure to pre-eclampsia (P<0.001) or maternal smoking (P=0.01), were not breastfed (P(trend)=0.03), were non-white (P<0.001), were heavy (P(trend)<0.001) or tall (P(trend)<0.001) compared with their peers at age 7 and exercised little as a child (P(trend)<0.001). Menarcheal age increased with number of siblings (P<0.001) independently of birth order, and had an inverse association with birth order after adjustment for sibship size (P<0.001). In a multivariate model, birthweight, ethnicity, weight, height, exercise, sibship size and birth order remained significant, and maternal age at birth became significant (positive association, P<0.001).

CONCLUSION

Age at menarche was influenced by both pre- and post-natal factors, and these factors may affect breast cancer risk through this route.

Common genetic variants are significant risk factors for early menopause: results from the Breakthrough Generations Study

Women become infertile approximately 10 years before menopause, and as more women delay childbirth into their 30s, the number of women who experience infertility is likely to increase. Tests that predict the timing of menopause would allow women to make informed reproductive decisions. Current predictors are only effective just prior to menopause, and there are no long-range indicators. Age at menopause and early menopause (EM) are highly heritable, suggesting a genetic aetiology. Recent genome-wide scans have identified four loci associated with variation in the age of normal menopause (40–60 years). We aimed to determine whether theses loci are also risk factors for EM. We tested the four menopause-associated genetic variants in a cohort of approximately 2000 women with menopause ≤45 years from the Breakthrough Generations Study (BGS). All four variants significantly increased the odds of having EM. Comparing the 4.5% of individuals with the lowest number of risk alleles (two or three) with the 3.0% with the highest number (eight risk alleles), the odds ratio was 4.1 (95% CI 2.4–7.1, P = 4.0 × 10⁻⁷). In combination, the four variants discriminated EM cases with a receiver operator characteristic area under the curve of 0.6. Four common genetic variants identified by genome-wide association studies, had a significant impact on the odds of having EM in an independent cohort from the BGS. The discriminative power is still limited, but as more variants are discovered they may be useful for predicting reproductive lifespan.

A case-control study of risk of leukaemia in relation to mobile phone use

Background:

Mobile phone use is now ubiquitous, and scientific reviews have recommended research into its relation to leukaemia risk, but no large studies have been conducted.

Methods:

In a case–control study in South East England to investigate the relation of acute and non-lymphocytic leukaemia risk to mobile phone use, 806 cases with leukaemia incident 2003–2009 at ages 18–59 years (50% of those identified as eligible) and 585 non-blood relatives as controls (provided by 392 cases) were interviewed about mobile phone use and other potentially aetiological variables.

Results:

No association was found between regular mobile phone use and risk of leukaemia (odds ratio (OR)=1.06, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.76, 1.46). Analyses of risk in relation to years since first use, lifetime years of use, cumulative number of calls and cumulative hours of use produced no significantly raised risks, and there was no evidence of any trends. A non-significantly raised risk was found in people who first used a phone 15 or more years ago (OR=1.87, 95% CI=0.96, 3.63). Separate analyses of analogue and digital phone use and leukaemia subtype produced similar results to those overall.

Conclusion:

This study suggests that use of mobile phones does not increase leukaemia risk, although the possibility of an effect after long-term use, while biologically unlikely, remains open.

A comprehensive study of the association between the EGFR and ERBB2 genes and glioma risk

Glioma is the most common type of adult brain tumor and glioblastoma, its most aggressive form, has a dismal prognosis. Receptor tyrosine kinases such as the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR, ERBB2, ERBB3, ERBB4) family, and the vascular endothelial growth factor receptor (VEGFR), play a central role in tumor progression. We investigated the genetic variants of EGFR, ERBB2, VEGFR and their ligands, EGF and VEGF on glioma and glioblastoma risk. In addition, we evaluated the association of genetic variants of a newly discovered family of genes known to interact with EGFR: LRIG2 and LRIG3 with glioma and glioblastoma risk. Methods. We analyzed 191 tag single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) capturing all common genetic variation of EGF, EGFR, ERBB2, LRIG2, LRIG3, VEGF and VEGFR2 genes. Material from four case-control studies with 725 glioma patients (329 of who were glioblastoma patients) and their 1 610 controls was used. Haplotype analyses were conducted using SAS/Genetics software. Results. Fourteen of the SNPs were significantly associated with glioma risk at p< 0.05, and 17 of the SNPs were significantly associated with glioblastoma risk at p< 0.05. In addition, we found that one EGFR haplotype was related to increased glioblastoma risk at p=0.009, Odds Ratio [OR] = 1.67 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.14, 2.45). The Bonferroni correction made all p-values non-significant. One SNP, rs4947986 next to the intron/exon boundary of exon 7 in EGFR, was validated in an independent data set of 713 glioblastoma and 2 236 controls, [OR] = 1.42 (95% CI: 1.06,1.91). Discussion. Previous studies show that regulation of the EGFR pathway plays a role in glioma progression but the present study is the first to find that certain genotypes of the EGFR gene may be related to glioblastoma risk. Further studies are required to reinvestigate these findings and evaluate the functional significance.

Inherited variation in immune genes and pathways and glioblastoma risk

To determine whether inherited variations in immune function single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), genes or pathways affect glioblastoma risk, we analyzed data from recent genome-wide association studies in conjunction with predefined immune function genes and pathways. Gene and pathway analyses were conducted on two independent data sets using 6629 SNPs in 911 genes on 17 immune pathways from 525 glioblastoma cases and 602 controls from the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF) and a subset of 6029 SNPs in 893 genes from 531 cases and 1782 controls from MD Anderson (MDA). To further assess consistency of SNP-level associations, we also compared data from the UK (266 cases and 2482 controls) and the Mayo Clinic (114 cases and 111 controls). Although three correlated epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) SNPs were consistently associated with glioblastoma in all four data sets (Mantel-Haenzel P values = 1 × 10⁻⁵ to 4 × 10⁻³), independent replication is required as genome-wide significance was not attained. In gene-level analyses, eight immune function genes were significantly (minP < 0.05) associated with glioblastoma; the IL-2RA (CD25) cytokine gene had the smallest minP values in both UCSF (minP = 0.01) and MDA (minP = 0.001) data sets. The IL-2RA receptor is found on the surface of regulatory T cells potentially contributing to immunosuppression characteristic of the glioblastoma microenvironment. In pathway correlation analyses, cytokine signaling and adhesion-extravasation-migration pathways showed similar associations with glioblastoma risk in both MDA and UCSF data sets. Our findings represent the first systematic description of immune genes and pathways that characterize glioblastoma risk.

Twinning in the offspring of parents with chronic radiation exposure from nuclear testing in Kazakhstan

The population of the Semipalatinsk region of Kazakhstan was chronically exposed to radioactive fallout from above-ground nuclear tests conducted during 1949-1956 by the Soviet Union. We investigated the effect of radiation exposure and other factors on risks of twinning overall and of same- and different-sex twinning and hence estimated dizygotic and monozygotic twinning rates in 11,605 deliveries around Semipalatinsk, 141 of which were twin, to 3992 mothers exposed to fallout during 1949-1956. Overall, the same-sex twinning rate was 7.85 [95% confidence interval (CI): 6.24, 9.47] per 1000 and the opposite-sex twinning rate was 4.45 (95% CI: 3.23, 5.67). Twinning rates did not differ significantly between radiation exposure categories, parental age at main radiation exposure, or year of birth. Different-sex, but not same-sex, twinning increased with maternal age (P(trend) = 0.04) but not with other demographic factors and was increased soon after radiation exposure [OR = 4.08 (95% CI: 1.11, 15.07)] for births occurring within 5 years compared with more than 20 years after exposure; this effect was similar in villages with low and high radiation exposure, however, so interpretation is uncertain.

Interaction between 5 genetic variants and allergy in glioma risk

The etiology of glioma is barely known. Epidemiologic studies have provided evidence for an inverse relation between glioma risk and allergic disease. Genome-wide association data have identified common genetic variants at 5p15.33 (rs2736100, TERT), 8q24.21 (rs4295627, CCDC26), 9p21.3 (rs4977756, CDKN2A-CDKN2B), 11q23.3 (rs498872, PHLDB1), and 20q13.33 (rs6010620, RTEL1) as determinants of glioma risk. The authors investigated whether there is interaction between the effects of allergy and these 5 variants on glioma risk. Data from 5 case-control studies carried out in Denmark, Finland, Sweden, and the United Kingdom (2000-2004) were used, totaling 1,029 cases and 1,668 controls. Risk was inversely associated with asthma, hay fever, eczema, and "any allergy," significantly for each factor except asthma, and was significantly positively associated with number of risk alleles for each of the 5 single nucleotide polymorphisms. There was interaction between asthma and rs498872 (greater protective effect of asthma with increasing number of risk alleles; per-allele interaction odds ratio (OR) = 0.65, P = 0.041), between "any allergy" and rs4977756 (smaller protective effect; interaction OR = 1.27, P = 0.047), and between "any allergy" and rs6010620 (greater protective effect; interaction OR = 0.70, P = 0.017). Case-only analyses provided further support for atopy interactions for rs4977756 and rs498872. This study provides evidence for possible gene-environment interactions in glioma development.

Infectious mononucleosis in university students in the United kingdom: evaluation of the clinical features and consequences of the disease

BACKGROUND

Infectious mononucleosis (IM) is common among university students. We undertook to analyze the clinical features and sequelae of the disease in a cohort of students at Edinburgh University.

METHODS

Consecutive IM case patients were recruited from 2000 through 2002 at the University Health Service after diagnosis of IM.

RESULTS

IM resulted in marked reductions in student study time, physical exercise, and non-exercise-related social activities, and sustained increases in reported number of hours of sleep. The disease profile differed between the sexes, with significantly more females reporting fatigue, which was more likely to be prolonged (P = .003) and to lead to loss of study time (P = .013). Female case patients were more likely to discontinue their studies following IM (16% vs 0%; P = .056). Within the typically elevated lymphocyte counts in IM, we identified an elevated gammadelta T cell component that may contribute to the disease pathogenesis.

CONCLUSIONS

IM results in substantial morbidity among university students, reported as more profound in females, and affecting academic studies, physical exercise, and social activities. Immunization to prevent IM and strategies to reduce post-IM disability would be beneficial in this population.

Risk factors for pituitary tumors: a case-control study

Pituitary gland tumors are usually benign but are associated with substantial morbidity. Their etiology is largely unknown. We conducted a population-based case-control study of potential risk factors for pituitary tumors in Southeast England. Information on medical and reproductive history, female sex hormones, and cigarette smoking was collected by personal interview from 299 cases and 630 controls aged 18 to 59 years. Tumor risk was reduced in subjects reporting a past diagnosis of hay fever [odds ratio (OR), 0.7; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.5-1.0] but not asthma or eczema. Risk was raised in women who were postmenopausal 1 year before diagnosis (OR, 3.2; 95% CI, 1.6-6.2), especially if menopause was surgically induced (OR, 6.7; 95% CI, 2.2-19.9) or occurred under age 40 years (OR, 7.5; 95% CI, 2.6-21.4). This effect remained when evaluating menopausal status 10 years before diagnosis. There was no association with parity overall, but risk was increased for first childbirth under age 20 years compared with nulliparity (OR, 3.4; 95% CI, 1.4-8.4). No significant association was observed with ever use of oral contraceptives or hormone replacement therapy, nor with cigarette smoking, past head injury, past diagnosis with epilepsy, or birth characteristics, except for an inverse association of risk with maternal age. This study suggests a raised risk of pituitary tumors in relation to surgically induced menopause, early postmenopausal age, and young age at childbirth, and possibly a reduced risk with hay fever and increasing maternal age. Reasons for these associations need further investigation, but some associations might be due to hormonal effects of an undiagnosed pituitary tumor.

Risk of cervical abnormality after age 50 in women with previously negative smears

There is discussion over the benefit of continuing cervical screening in women over the age of 50 with a history of negative cytology. We aimed to determine the risk of abnormal cytology in such women. Screening history data from 1985 to 2003 were obtained for a cohort of 2 million women from the NHS cervical screening programme from four Health Authorities in England. The 57 651 women in the cohort who reached age 40 between 1 January 1985 and 31 December 1990 and had at least one routine or opportunistic smear between ages 50 and 54 were included in the analysis. Exposure groups (negative cytology history, negative but including inadequate smears, and positive history) were defined on the basis of screening histories from ages 40 to 49. Sixty-four percent (134/206) (95% CI: 57–71%) of the moderate dyskaryosis or worse lesions at ages over 50 were detected from women in the negative smear history group. After allowance for time since last negative smear, the relative risk for the first primary smear over the age of 50 having moderate dyskaryosis or worse decreased from 0.60 (95% CI: 0.41–0.84) for two negative smear episodes to 0.25 (95% CI: 0.10–0.56) for four negative smear episodes, compared with the positive history group. If screening were discontinued for all women over 50 with a negative history, the majority of cytological abnormalities now being detected at these ages that lead directly to referral to colposcopy would be missed.

Sun exposure and melanoma risk at different latitudes: a pooled analysis of 5700 cases and 7216 controls

Background Melanoma risk is related to sun exposure; we have investigated risk variation by tumour site and latitude.

Methods We performed a pooled analysis of 15 case–control studies (5700 melanoma cases and 7216 controls), correlating patterns of sun exposure, sunburn and solar keratoses (three studies) with melanoma risk. Pooled odds ratios (pORs) and 95% Bayesian confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Bayesian unconditional polytomous logistic random-coefficients models.

Results Recreational sun exposure was a risk factor for melanoma on the trunk (pOR = 1.7; 95% CI: 1.4–2.2) and limbs (pOR = 1.4; 95% CI: 1.1–1.7), but not head and neck (pOR = 1.1; 95% CI: 0.8–1.4), across latitudes. Occupational sun exposure was associated with risk of melanoma on the head and neck at low latitudes (pOR = 1.7; 95% CI: 1.0–3.0). Total sun exposure was associated with increased risk of melanoma on the limbs at low latitudes (pOR = 1.5; 95% CI: 1.0–2.2), but not at other body sites or other latitudes. The pORs for sunburn in childhood were 1.5 (95% CI: 1.3–1.7), 1.5 (95% CI: 1.3–1.7) and 1.4 (95% CI: 1.1–1.7) for melanoma on the trunk, limbs, and head and neck, respectively, showing little variation across latitudes. The presence of head and neck solar keratoses was associated with increased risk of melanoma on the head and neck (pOR = 4.0; 95% CI: 1.7–9.1) and limbs (pOR = 4.0; 95% CI: 1.9–8.4).

Conclusion Melanoma risk at different body sites is associated with different amounts and patterns of sun exposure. Recreational sun exposure and sunburn are strong predictors of melanoma at all latitudes, whereas measures of occupational and total sun exposure appear to predict melanoma predominately at low latitudes.

The use of screening episodes linked to CIN3 and invasive cancer registrations to study outcomes from the NHS Cervical Screening Programme

The use of screening episodes linked to CIN3 and invasive cancer registrations to study outcomes from the NHS Cervical Screening ProgrammeObjective: To examine how NHS cervical screening data can be collected and analysed in order to evaluate women's screening histories as episodes rather than as individual smears.

DESIGN

Analysis of routine cervical screening data grouped into screening episodes for a cohort of women regarding episodes starting in a given year.

SETTING

NHS Cervical Screening Programme.

POPULATION

Data from four Health Authorities (now eight Primary Care Trusts) from the NHS Cervical Screening Programme with primary smears (first in an episode) taken between 1 April 1999 and 31 March 2000.

METHODS

Cytology information obtained from the call/recall ('Exeter') computer system was linked to cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 3 and invasive cancer outcome information obtained from cancer registries. Screening histories were divided into episodes, each starting with a primary smear that was followed up to episode closure or, for episodes still open followed for an average 4.25 years, from the primary smear. The episode was divided into two parts (up to referral to colposcopy and following the referral). The outcomes of the episodes are described including referral rate to colposcopy and CIN3 and invasive cancer rates by factors such as age.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Episode histories and rates of referral to colposcopy, CIN3 and invasive cancer.

RESULTS

There were 176 923 episodes from 176 319 women (1.003 episodes per woman) followed up to March 2004, the date at which the first phase of information accrual ceased. Of these episodes, 172 100 (97.3%) were closed either by a negative smear referring the woman back to routine recall or by default (defined as no smear recorded within 21 months following a smear requiring an action of repeat or refer to colposcopy). The remaining 4823 (2.7%) of episodes were still open, of which in 3121 (1.8%) the woman had been referred to colposcopy and in 1702 (1.0%) no referral decision had been made. Referral rates to colposcopy varied by age from 5.7% in women aged 20-24 years down to 0.9% in women aged 60-64 years. The overall efficiency of screening was highest for woman aged about 30 years, with a CIN3 detection rate of eight per 1000 women and a positive predictive value (for CIN3 or worse) of referral to colposcopy of 21%.

CONCLUSION

The study has shown that routinely collected NHS cervical screening data can be combined to give information on complete episodes, allowing important performance measures to be studied. We suggest that in future information in the NHS screening system should be structured to facilitate such analysis and to allow cytology and histology information to be readily linked.

A pooled analysis of melanocytic nevus phenotype and the risk of cutaneous melanoma at different latitudes

An abnormal nevus phenotype is associated with an increased risk of melanoma. We report a pooled analysis conducted using individual nevus data from 15 case-control studies (5,421 melanoma cases and 6,966 controls). The aims were to quantify the risk better and to determine whether relative risk is varied by latitude. Bayesian unconditional logistic random coefficients models were employed to study the risk associated with nevus characteristics. Participants with whole body nevus counts in the highest of 4 population-based categories had a greatly increased risk of melanoma compared with those in the lowest category (pooled odds ratio (pOR) 6.9 (95% confidence interval (CI): 4.4, 11.2) for those aged<50 years and pOR 5.1 (95% CI: 3.6, 7.5) for those aged>or=50). The pOR for presence compared with absence of any clinically atypical nevi was 4.0 (95% CI: 2.8, 5.8). The pORs for 1-2 and >or=3 large nevi on the body compared with none were 2.9 (95% CI: 1.9, 4.3) and 7.1 (95% CI: 4.7, 11.6), respectively. The relative heterogeneities among studies were small for most measures of nevus phenotype, except for the analysis of nevus counts on the arms, which may have been due to methodological differences among studies. The pooled analysis also suggested that an abnormal nevus phenotype is associated most with melanomas on intermittently sun-exposed sites. The presence of increased numbers of nevi, large nevi and clinically atypical nevi on the body are robust risk factors for melanoma showing little variation in relative risk among studies performed at different latitudes.

Nevus density and melanoma risk in women: a pooled analysis to test the divergent pathway hypothesis

A "divergent pathway" model for the development of cutaneous melanoma has been proposed. The model hypothesizes that melanomas occurring in people with a low tendency to develop nevi will, on average, arise more commonly on habitually sun-exposed body sites such as the head and neck. In contrast, people with an inherent propensity to develop nevi will tend to develop melanomas most often on body sites with large melanocyte populations, such as on the back. We conducted a collaborative analysis to test this hypothesis using the original data from 10 case-control studies of melanoma in women (2,406 cases and 3,119 controls), with assessment of the potential confounding effects of socioeconomic, pigmentary and sun exposure-related factors. Higher nevus count on the arm was associated specifically with an increased risk of melanoma of the trunk (p for trend = 0.0004) and limbs (both upper and lower limb p for trends = 0.01), but not of the head and neck (p for trend = 0.25). The pooled odds ratios for the highest quartile of nonzero nevus count versus none were 4.6 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.7-7.6) for melanoma of the trunk, 2.0 (95% CI 0.9-4.5) for the head and neck, 4.2 (95% CI 2.3-7.5) for the upper limbs and 3.4 (95% CI 1.5-7.9) for the lower limbs. Aggregate data from these studies suggest that high nevus counts are strongly associated with melanoma of the trunk but less so if at all of the head and neck. This finding supports different etiologic pathways of melanoma development by anatomic site.

Mortality in women with turner syndrome in Great Britain: a national cohort study

CONTEXT

Turner syndrome is characterized by complete or partial X chromosome monosomy. It is associated with substantial morbidity, but mortality risks and causes of death are not well described.

OBJECTIVES

Our objective was to investigate mortality and causes of death in women with Turner syndrome.

DESIGN AND SETTING

We constructed a cohort of women diagnosed with Turner syndrome at almost all cytogenetic centers in Great Britain and followed them for mortality.

PATIENTS

A total of 3,439 women diagnosed between 1959-2002 were followed to the end of 2006.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and absolute excess risks were evaluated.

RESULTS

In total, 296 deaths occurred. Mortality was significantly raised overall [SMR = 3.0; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.7-3.4] and was raised for nearly all major causes of death. Circulatory disease accounted for 41% of excess mortality, with greatest SMRs for aortic aneurysm (SMR = 23.6; 95% CI = 13.8-37.8) and aortic valve disease (SMR = 17.9; 95% CI = 4.9-46.0), but SMRs were also raised for other circulatory conditions. Other major contributors to raised mortality included congenital cardiac anomalies, diabetes, epilepsy, liver disease, noninfectious enteritis and colitis, renal and ureteric disease, and pneumonia. Absolute excess risks of death were considerably greater at older than younger ages.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality in women with Turner syndrome is 3-fold higher than in the general population, is raised for almost all major causes of death, and is raised at all ages, with the greatest excess mortality in older adulthood. These risks need consideration in follow-up and counseling of patients and add to reasons for continued follow-up and preventive measures in adult, not just pediatric, care.

XRCC1 and XRCC3 variants and risk of glioma and meningioma

Several single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) affecting DNA repair capacity and modifying cancer susceptibility have been described. We evaluated the association of SNPs Arg194Trp, Arg280His, and Arg399Gln in the X-ray cross-complementing group 1 (XRCC1) and Thr241Met in the X-ray cross-complementing group 3 (XRCC3) DNA repair genes with the risk of brain tumors. The Caucasian study population consisted of 701 glioma (including 320 glioblastoma) cases, 524 meningioma cases, and 1,560 controls in a prospective population-based case-control study conducted in Denmark, Finland, Sweden, and the UK. The studied SNPs were not significantly associated with the risk of brain tumors. The highest odds ratios (ORs) for the associations were observed between the homozygous variant genotype XRCC1 Gln399Gln and the risk of glioma (OR = 1.32; 95% confidence interval, CI, 0.97-1.81), glioblastoma (OR = 1.48; 95% CI, 0.98-2.24), and meningioma (OR = 1.34; 95% CI, 0.96-1.86). However, in pair-wise comparisons a few SNP combinations were associated with the risk of brain tumors: Among others, carriers of both homozygous variant genotypes, i.e., XRCC1 Gln399Gln and XRCC3 Met241Met, were associated with a three-fold increased risk of glioma (OR = 3.18; 95% CI, 1.26-8.04) and meningioma (OR = 2.99; 95% CI, 1.16-7.72). In conclusion, no significant association with brain tumors was found for any of the polymorphisms, when examined one by one. Our results indicated possible associations between combinations of XRCC1 and XRCC3 SNPs and the risk of brain tumors.

An international case-control study of interleukin-4Ralpha, interleukin-13, and cyclooxygenase-2 polymorphisms and glioblastoma risk

Previous studies found that allergies are inversely related to risk of glioma. In an earlier publication, using data from a Swedish case-control study, Schwartzbaum et al. report an inverse relation between risk of glioblastoma and four single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) on two genes [interleukin (IL)-4Ralpha, IL-13] that are associated with allergies. In addition, recent studies suggest that IL-4 and IL-13 induce cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) to resolve brain inflammation. To see whether previous Swedish results (110 cases, 430 controls) would be replicated, we estimated the association between glioblastoma and two IL-4Ralpha (rs1805015, rs1801275) and two IL-13 (rs20541, rs1800925) SNPs and their haplotypes and one COX-2 SNP (-765GC) using additional English, Danish, and Finnish data (217 cases, 1,171 controls). Among general population controls, we evaluated associations between these haplotypes, the COX-2 SNP, and self-reported allergies. Our data did not support our original observations relating individual IL-4Ralpha, IL-13, or COX-2 SNPs to glioblastoma risk. However, the T-G IL-4Ralpha haplotype was associated with glioblastoma risk (odds ratio, 2.26; 95% confidence interval, 1.13-4.52) and there was a suggestion of an inverse relation between this haplotype and hayfever prevalence among controls (odds ratio, 0.38; 95% confidence interval, 0.14-1.03). The lack of support for a link between four IL-4Ralpha and IL-13 SNPs and glioblastoma may reflect the absence of associations or may result from uncontrolled confounding by haplotypes related both to those that we examined and glioblastoma. Nonetheless, the association between the T-G IL-4Ralpha haplotype and glioblastoma risk may indicate a role of immune factors in glioblastoma development.