Prediction of mortality after radical cystectomy for bladder cancer by machine learning techniques

Recent Advances in Artificial Intelligence for Precision Diagnosis and Treatment of Bladder Cancer: A Review

BACKGROUND

Bladder cancer is one of the top ten cancers globally, with its incidence steadily rising in China. Early detection and prognosis risk assessment play a crucial role in guiding subsequent treatment decisions for bladder cancer. However, traditional diagnostic methods such as bladder endoscopy, imaging, or pathology examinations heavily rely on the clinical expertise and experience of clinicians, exhibiting subjectivity and poor reproducibility.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

With the rise of artificial intelligence, novel approaches, particularly those employing deep learning technology, have shown significant advancements in clinical tasks related to bladder cancer, including tumor detection, molecular subtyping identification, tumor staging and grading, prognosis prediction, and recurrence assessment.

RESULTS

Artificial intelligence, with its robust data mining capabilities, enhances diagnostic efficiency and reproducibility when assisting clinicians in decision-making, thereby reducing the risks of misdiagnosis and underdiagnosis. This not only helps alleviate the current challenges of talent shortages and uneven distribution of medical resources but also fosters the development of precision medicine.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides a comprehensive review of the latest research advances and prospects of artificial intelligence technology in the precise diagnosis and treatment of bladder cancer.

A stacking ensemble system for identifying the presence of histological variants in bladder carcinoma: a multicenter study

Purpose

To create a system to enable the identification of histological variants of bladder cancer in a simple, efficient, and noninvasive manner.

Material and methods

In this multicenter diagnostic study, we retrospectively collected basic information and CT images about the patients concerned from three hospitals. An interactive deep learning-based bladder cancer image segmentation framework was constructed using the Swin UNETR algorithm for further features extraction. Radiomic features and deep learning features were extracted for further stacking ensemble system construction. The segmentation model' performance was assessed by using Dice Similarity (Dice) metrics, Intersection Over Union (IOU), Sensitivity (SEN) and Specificity (SPE). To evaluate the system's performance, we used the Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve, the Accuracy Score (ACC) and Decision Curve Analysis (DCA).

Results

410 patients from one hospital were included in the training set, while 60 patients from two other hospitals were included in the test set. A total of 50 features comprising 46 radiomic features and 4 deep learning features were finally retained for further stacking ensemble model building. The interactive segmentation model and system exhibited excellent performance in both training (Dice = 0.78, IOU = 0.65, SEN = 0.83, SPE = 1.00, AUC = 0.940, ACC = 0.868) and testing datasets (Dice = 0.80, IOU = 0.67, SEN = 0.89, SPE = 1.00, AUC = 0.905, ACC = 0.900).

Conclusion

We successfully constructed a stacking ensemble machine learning model for early, non-invasive identification of histological variants in bladder cancer which will help urologists make clinical decisions.

Machine learning-based classification of varicocoele grading: A promising approach for diagnosis and treatment optimization

BACKGROUND

Varicocoele is a correctable cause of male infertility. Although physical examination is still being used in diagnosis and grading, it gives conflicting results when compared to ultrasonography-based varicocoele grading.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to develop a multi-class machine learning model for the grading of varicocoeles based on ultrasonographic measurements.

METHOD

Between January and May 2024, we enrolled unilateral varicocoele patients at an infertility clinic, assessing their varicocoele stages using the Dubin and Amelar system. We measured vascular diameter and reflux time at the testicular apex and the subinguinal region ultrasonography in both the supine and standing positions. Using these measurements, we developed four multi-class machine learning models, evaluating their performance metrics and determining which patient position and projection were most influential in varicocoele grading.

RESULTS

We included 248 patients with unilateral varicocoele in the study, their average age was 26.61 ± 4.95 years old. Of these, 212 had left-sided and 36 had right-sided varicocoeles. According to the Dubin and Amelar system, there were 66 grade I, 96 grade II, and 86 grade III varicocoeles. Among the models we created, the random forest (RF) model performed best, with an overall accuracy of 0.81 ± 0.06, an F1 score of 0.79 ± 0.02, a sensitivity of 0.69 ± 0.02, and a specificity of 0.8 ± 0.03. Vascular diameter measurement at the testicular apex in the supine position had the most impact on grading across all models. In support vector machine and multi-layer perceptron models, reflux time measurements from the subinguinal projection in the standing position contributed the most, while in RF and k-nearest neighbors models, measurements from the subinguinal projection in the supine position were the most influential.

CONCLUSIONS

Machine learning methods have demonstrated superior accuracy in predicting disease compared to traditional statistical regressions and nomograms. These advancements hold promise for clinically automated prediction of varicocoele grades in patients. Tailored varicocoele grading for individuals has the potential to enhance treatment effectiveness and overall quality of life.

Using ensemble learning and hierarchical strategy to predict the outcomes of ESWL for upper ureteral stone treatment

Urinary tract stones are a common and frequently recurring medical issue. Accurately predicting the success rate after surgery can help avoid ineffective medical procedures and reduce unnecessary healthcare costs. This study collected data from patients with upper ureter stones who underwent extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy, including cases of successful as well as unsuccessful stone removal after the first and second lithotripsy procedures, and constructed prediction systems for the outcomes of the first and second lithotripsy procedures. Features were extracted from three categories of information: patient characteristics, stone characteristics, and extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy machine data, and additional features were created using Feature Creation. Finally, the impact of features on the models was analyzed using six methods to calculate feature importance. Our prediction model for the first lithotripsy, selected from among 43 methods and seven ensemble learning techniques, achieves an AUC of 0.91. For the second lithotripsy, the AUC reaches 0.76. The results indicate that the detailed and binary information provided by patients regarding their history of stone experiences contributes differently to the predictive accuracy of the first and second lithotripsy procedures. The prediction tool is available at https://predictor.isu.edu.tw/ks.

Machine Learning Model Construction and Testing: Anticipating Cancer Incidence and Mortality

In recent years, the escalating environmental challenges have contributed to a rising incidence of cancer. The precise anticipation of cancer incidence and mortality rates has emerged as a pivotal focus in scientific inquiry, exerting a profound impact on the formulation of public health policies. This investigation adopts a pioneering machine learning framework to address this critical issue, utilizing a dataset encompassing 72,591 comprehensive records that include essential variables such as age, case count, population size, race, gender, site, and year of diagnosis. Diverse machine learning algorithms, including decision trees, random forests, logistic regression, support vector machines, and neural networks, were employed in this study. The ensuing analysis revealed testing accuracies of 62.17%, 61.92%, 54.53%, 55.72%, and 62.30% for the respective models. This state-of-the-art model not only enhances our understanding of cancer dynamics but also equips researchers and policymakers with the capability of making meticulous projections concerning forthcoming cancer incidence and mortality rates. Considering sustainability, the application of this advanced machine learning framework emphasizes the importance of judiciously utilizing extensive and intricate databases. By doing so, it facilitates a more sustainable approach to healthcare planning, allowing for informed decision-making that takes into account the long-term ecological and societal impacts of cancer-related policies. This integrative perspective underscores the broader commitment to sustainable practices in both health research and public policy formulation.

Outcome Prediction Using Multi-Modal Information: Integrating Large Language Model-Extracted Clinical Information and Image Analysis

Survival prediction post-cystectomy is essential for the follow-up care of bladder cancer patients. This study aimed to evaluate artificial intelligence (AI)-large language models (LLMs) for extracting clinical information and improving image analysis, with an initial application involving predicting five-year survival rates of patients after radical cystectomy for bladder cancer. Data were retrospectively collected from medical records and CT urograms (CTUs) of bladder cancer patients between 2001 and 2020. Of 781 patients, 163 underwent chemotherapy, had pre- and post-chemotherapy CTUs, underwent radical cystectomy, and had an available post-surgery five-year survival follow-up. Five AI-LLMs (Dolly-v2, Vicuna-13b, Llama-2.0-13b, GPT-3.5, and GPT-4.0) were used to extract clinical descriptors from each patient's medical records. As a reference standard, clinical descriptors were also extracted manually. Radiomics and deep learning descriptors were extracted from CTU images. The developed multi-modal predictive model, CRD, was based on the clinical (C), radiomics (R), and deep learning (D) descriptors. The LLM retrieval accuracy was assessed. The performances of the survival predictive models were evaluated using AUC and Kaplan-Meier analysis. For the 163 patients (mean age 64 ± 9 years; M:F 131:32), the LLMs achieved extraction accuracies of 74%~87% (Dolly), 76%~83% (Vicuna), 82%~93% (Llama), 85%~91% (GPT-3.5), and 94%~97% (GPT-4.0). For a test dataset of 64 patients, the CRD model achieved AUCs of 0.89 ± 0.04 (manually extracted information), 0.87 ± 0.05 (Dolly), 0.83 ± 0.06~0.84 ± 0.05 (Vicuna), 0.81 ± 0.06~0.86 ± 0.05 (Llama), 0.85 ± 0.05~0.88 ± 0.05 (GPT-3.5), and 0.87 ± 0.05~0.88 ± 0.05 (GPT-4.0). This study demonstrates the use of LLM model-extracted clinical information, in conjunction with imaging analysis, to improve the prediction of clinical outcomes, with bladder cancer as an initial example.

Machine learning algorithm predicts urethral stricture following transurethral prostate resection

PURPOSE

To predict the post transurethral prostate resection(TURP) urethral stricture probability by applying different machine learning algorithms using the data obtained from preoperative blood parameters.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of data from patients who underwent bipolar-TURP encompassing patient characteristics, preoperative routine blood test outcomes, and post-surgery uroflowmetry were used to develop and educate machine learning models. Various metrics, such as F1 score, model accuracy, negative predictive value, positive predictive value, sensitivity, specificity, Youden Index, ROC AUC value, and confidence interval for each model, were used to assess the predictive performance of machine learning models for urethral stricture development.

RESULTS

A total of 109 patients' data (55 patients without urethral stricture and 54 patients with urethral stricture) were included in the study after implementing strict inclusion and exclusion criteria. The preoperative Platelet Distribution Width, Mean Platelet Volume, Plateletcrit, Activated Partial Thromboplastin Time, and Prothrombin Time values were statistically meaningful between the two cohorts. After applying the data to the machine learning systems, the accuracy prediction scores for the diverse algorithms were as follows: decision trees (0.82), logistic regression (0.82), random forests (0.91), support vector machines (0.86), K-nearest neighbors (0.82), and naïve Bayes (0.77).

CONCLUSION

Our machine learning models' accuracy in predicting the post-TURP urethral stricture probability has demonstrated significant success. Exploring prospective studies that integrate supplementary variables has the potential to enhance the precision and accuracy of machine learning models, consequently progressing their ability to predict post-TURP urethral stricture risk.

Bladder Cancer and Artificial Intelligence: Emerging Applications

Bladder cancer is a common and heterogeneous disease that poses a significant burden to the patient and health care system. Major unmet needs include effective early detection strategy, imprecision of risk stratification, and treatment-associated morbidities. The existing clinical paradigm is imprecise, which results in missed tumors, suboptimal therapy, and disease progression. Artificial intelligence holds immense potential to address many unmet needs in bladder cancer, including early detection, risk stratification, treatment planning, quality assessment, and outcome prediction. Despite recent advances, extensive work remains to affirm the efficacy of artificial intelligence as a decision-making tool for bladder cancer management.

Artificial Intelligence in Urology: Current Status and Future Perspectives

Surgical fields, especially urology, have shifted increasingly toward the use of artificial intelligence (AI). Advancements in AI have created massive improvements in diagnostics, outcome predictions, and robotic surgery. For robotic surgery to progress from assisting surgeons to eventually reaching autonomous procedures, there must be advancements in machine learning, natural language processing, and computer vision. Moreover, barriers such as data availability, interpretability of autonomous decision-making, Internet connection and security, and ethical concerns must be overcome.

The predictive value of modified-DeepSurv in overall survivals of patients with lung cancer

The traditional prognostic model may induce the possibility of incorrect assessment of mortality risk under the assumption of linearity. It is urgent to develop a non-linearity precise prognostic model for achieving personalized medicine in lung cancer. In our study, we develop and validate a prognostic model "Modified-DeepSurv" for patients with lung carcinoma based on deep learning and evaluate its value for prognosis, while Cox proportional hazard regression was used to develop another model "CPH." The C-index of the Modified-DeepSurv and CPH was 0.956 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.946-0.974) and 0.836 (95% CI: 0.774-0.896), respectively, in the training cohort, while the C-index of the Modified-DeepSurv and CPH was 0.932 (95%CI: 0.908-0.964) and 0.777 (95%CI: 0.633-0.919), respectively, in the test dataset. The Modified-DeepSurv model visualization was realized by a user-friendly graphic interface. Modified-DeepSurv can effectively predict the survival of lung cancer patients and is superior to the conventional CPH model.

A deep multi-view imbalanced learning approach for identifying informative COVID-19 tweets from social media

Social media platforms such as Twitter are home ground for rapid COVID-19-related information sharing over the Internet, thereby becoming the favorable data resource for many downstream applications. Due to the massive pile of COVID-19 tweets generated every day, it is significant that the machine-learning-supported downstream applications can effectively skip the uninformative tweets and only pick up the informative tweets for their further use. However, existing solutions do not specifically consider the negative effect caused by the imbalanced ratios between informative and uninformative tweets in training data. In particular, most of the existing solutions are dominated by single-view learning, neglecting the rich information from different views to facilitate learning. In this study, a novel deep imbalanced multi-view learning approach called D-SVM-2K is proposed to identify the informative COVID-19 tweets from social media. This approach is built upon the well-known multiview learning method SVM-2K to incorporate different views generated from different feature extraction techniques. To battle against the class imbalance problem and enhance its learning ability, D-SVM-2K stacks multiple SVM-2K base classifiers in a stacked deep structure where its base classifiers can learn from either the original training dataset or the shifted critical regions identified using the well-known k-nearest neighboring algorithm. D-SVM-2K also realises a global and local deep ensemble learning on the multiple views' data. Our empirical experiments on a real-world labeled tweet dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of D-SVM-2K in dealing with the real-world multi-view class imbalance issues.

A Novel AUC Maximization Imbalanced Learning Approach for Predicting Composite Outcomes in COVID-19 Hospitalized Patients

The COVID-19 patient data for composite outcome prediction often comes with class imbalance issues, i.e., only a small group of patients develop severe composite events after hospital admission, while the rest do not. An ideal COVID-19 composite outcome prediction model should possess strong imbalanced learning capability. The model also should have fewer tuning hyperparameters to ensure good usability and exhibit potential for fast incremental learning. Towards this goal, this study proposes a novel imbalanced learning approach called Imbalanced maximizing-Area Under the Curve (AUC) Proximal Support Vector Machine (ImAUC-PSVM) by the means of classical PSVM to predict the composite outcomes of hospitalized COVID-19 patients within 30 days of hospitalization. ImAUC-PSVM offers the following merits: (1) it incorporates straightforward AUC maximization into the objective function, resulting in fewer parameters to tune. This makes it suitable for handling imbalanced COVID-19 data with a simplified training process. (2) Theoretical derivations reveal that ImAUC-PSVM has the same analytical solution form as PSVM, thus inheriting the advantages of PSVM for handling incremental COVID-19 cases through fast incremental updating. We built and internally and externally validated our proposed classifier using real COVID-19 patient data obtained from three separate sites of Mayo Clinic in the United States. Additionally, we validated it on public datasets using various performance metrics. Experimental results demonstrate that ImAUC-PSVM outperforms other methods in most cases, showcasing its potential to assist clinicians in triaging COVID-19 patients at an early stage in hospital settings, as well as in other prediction applications.

The Present and Future of Artificial Intelligence in Urological Cancer

Artificial intelligence has drawn more and more attention for both research and application in the field of medicine. It has considerable potential for urological cancer detection, therapy, and prognosis prediction due to its ability to choose features in data to complete a particular task autonomously. Although the clinical application of AI is still immature and faces drawbacks such as insufficient data and a lack of prospective clinical trials, AI will play an essential role in individualization and the whole management of cancers as research progresses. In this review, we summarize the applications and studies of AI in major urological cancers, including tumor diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis prediction. Moreover, we discuss the current challenges and future applications of AI.

Use of machine learning to predict bladder cancer survival outcomes: a systematic literature review

INTRODUCTION

The objective of this systematic review is to summarize the use of machine learning (ML) in predicting overall survival (OS) in patients with bladder cancer.

METHODS

Search terms for bladder cancer, ML algorithms, and mortality were used to identify studies in PubMed and Web of Science as of February 2022. Notable inclusion/exclusion criteria contained the inclusion of studies that utilized patient-level datasets and exclusion of primary gene expression-related dataset studies. Study quality and bias were assessed using the International Journal of Medical Informatics (IJMEDI) checklist.

RESULTS

Of the 14 included studies, the most common algorithms were artificial neural networks (n = 8) and logistic regression (n = 4). Nine articles described missing data handling, with five articles removing patients with missing data entirely. With respect to feature selection, the most common sociodemographic variables were age (n = 9), gender (n = 9), and smoking status (n = 3), with clinical variables most commonly including tumor stage (n = 8), grade (n = 7), and lymph node involvement (n = 6). Most studies (n = 10) were of medium IJMEDI quality, with common areas of improvement being the descriptions of data preparation and deployment.

CONCLUSIONS

ML holds promise for optimizing bladder cancer care through accurate OS predictions, but challenges related to data processing, feature selection, and data source quality must be resolved to develop robust models. While this review is limited by its inability to compare models across studies, this systematic review will inform decision-making by various stakeholders to improve understanding of ML-based OS prediction in bladder cancer and foster interpretability of future models.

A Risk Prediction Model for Physical Restraints Among Older Chinese Adults in Long-term Care Facilities: Machine Learning Study

BACKGROUND

Numerous studies have identified risk factors for physical restraint (PR) use in older adults in long-term care facilities. Nevertheless, there is a lack of predictive tools to identify high-risk individuals.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to develop machine learning (ML)-based models to predict the risk of PR in older adults.

METHODS

This study conducted a cross-sectional secondary data analysis based on 1026 older adults from 6 long-term care facilities in Chongqing, China, from July 2019 to November 2019. The primary outcome was the use of PR (yes or no), identified by 2 collectors' direct observation. A total of 15 candidate predictors (older adults' demographic and clinical factors) that could be commonly and easily collected from clinical practice were used to build 9 independent ML models: Gaussian Naïve Bayesian (GNB), k-nearest neighbor (KNN), decision tree (DT), logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), multilayer perceptron (MLP), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and light gradient boosting machine (Lightgbm), as well as stacking ensemble ML. Performance was evaluated using accuracy, precision, recall, an F score, a comprehensive evaluation indicator (CEI) weighed by the above indicators, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). A net benefit approach using the decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to evaluate the clinical utility of the best model. Models were tested via 10-fold cross-validation. Feature importance was interpreted using Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP).

RESULTS

A total of 1026 older adults (mean 83.5, SD 7.6 years; n=586, 57.1% male older adults) and 265 restrained older adults were included in the study. All ML models performed well, with an AUC above 0.905 and an F score above 0.900. The 2 best independent models are RF (AUC 0.938, 95% CI 0.914-0.947) and SVM (AUC 0.949, 95% CI 0.911-0.953). The DCA demonstrated that the RF model displayed better clinical utility than other models. The stacking model combined with SVM, RF, and MLP performed best with AUC (0.950) and CEI (0.943) values, as well as the DCA curve indicated the best clinical utility. The SHAP plots demonstrated that the significant contributors to model performance were related to cognitive impairment, care dependency, mobility decline, physical agitation, and an indwelling tube.

CONCLUSIONS

The RF and stacking models had high performance and clinical utility. ML prediction models for predicting the probability of PR in older adults could offer clinical screening and decision support, which could help medical staff in the early identification and PR management of older adults.

Machine learning predicts cancer-associated venous thromboembolism using clinically available variables in gastric cancer patients

Stomach cancer (GC) has one of the highest rates of thrombosis among cancers and can lead to considerable morbidity, mortality, and additional costs. However, to date, there is no suitable venous thromboembolism (VTE) prediction model for gastric cancer patients to predict risk. Therefore, there is an urgent need to establish a clinical prediction model for VTE in gastric cancer patients. We collected data on 3092 patients between January 1, 2018 and December 31, 2021. And after feature selection, 11 variables are reserved as predictors to build the model. Five machine learning (ML) algorithms are used to build different VTE predictive models. The accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and AUC of these five models were compared with traditional logistic regression (LR) to recommend the best VTE prediction model. RF and XGB models have selected the essential characters in the model: Clinical stage, Blood Transfusion History, D-Dimer, AGE, and FDP. The model has an AUC of 0.825, an accuracy of 0.799, a sensitivity of 0.710, and a specificity of 0.802 in the validation set. The model has good performance and high application value in clinical practice, and can identify high-risk groups of gastric cancer patients and prevent venous thromboembolism.

Bladder Cancer Radiation Oncology of the Future: Prognostic Modelling, Radiomics, and Treatment Planning With Artificial Intelligence

Machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) have demonstrated potential to improve the care of radiation oncology patients. Here we review recent advances applicable to the care of bladder cancer, with an eye towards studies that may suggest next steps in clinical implementation. Algorithms have been applied to clinical records, pathology, and radiology data to generate accurate predictive models for prognosis and clinical outcomes. AI has also shown increasing utility for auto-contouring and efficient creation of workflows involving multiple treatment plans. As technologies progress towards routine clinical use for bladder cancer patients, we also discuss emerging methods to improve interpretability and reliability of algorithms.

Study and validation of an explainable machine learning-based mortality prediction following emergency surgery in the elderly: A prospective observational study

INTRODUCTION

The heterogeneity of procedures and the variety of comorbidities of the patients undergoing surgery in an emergency setting makes perioperative risk stratification, planning, and risk mitigation crucial. In this optic, Machine Learning has the capability of deriving data-driven predictions based on multivariate interactions of thousands of instances. Our aim was to cross-validate and test interpretable models for the prediction of post-operative mortality after any surgery in an emergency setting on elderly patients.

METHODS

This study is a secondary analysis derived from the FRAILESEL study, a multi-center (N = 29 emergency care units), nationwide, observational prospective study with data collected between 06-2017 and 06-2018 investigating perioperative outcomes of elderly patients (age≥65 years) undergoing emergency surgery. Demographic and clinical data, medical and surgical history, preoperative risk factors, frailty, biochemical blood examination, vital parameters, and operative details were collected and the primary outcome was set to the 30-day mortality.

RESULTS

Of the 2570 included patients (50.66% males, median age 77 [IQR = 13] years) 238 (9.26%) were in the non-survivors group. The best performing solution (MultiLayer Perceptron) resulted in a test accuracy of 94.9% (sensitivity = 92.0%, specificity = 95.2%). Model explanations showed how non-chronic cardiac-related comorbidities reduced activities of daily living, low consciousness levels, high creatinine and low saturation increase the risk of death following surgery.

CONCLUSIONS

In this prospective observational study, a robustly cross-validated model resulted in better predictive performance than existing tools and scores in literature. By using only preoperative features and by deriving patient-specific explanations, the model provides crucial information during shared decision-making processes required for risk mitigation procedures.

An ensemble learning with active sampling to predict the prognosis of postoperative non-small cell lung cancer patients

Background

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death worldwide. Prognostic prediction plays a vital role in the decision-making process for postoperative non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. However, the high imbalance ratio of prognostic data limits the development of effective prognostic prediction models.

Methods

In this study, we present a novel approach, namely ensemble learning with active sampling (ELAS), to tackle the imbalanced data problem in NSCLC prognostic prediction. ELAS first applies an active sampling mechanism to query the most informative samples to update the base classifier to give it a new perspective. This training process is repeated until no enough samples are queried. Next, an internal validation set is employed to evaluate the base classifiers, and the ones with the best performances are integrated as the ensemble model. Besides, we set up multiple initial training data seeds and internal validation sets to ensure the stability and generalization of the model.

Results

We verified the effectiveness of the ELAS on a real clinical dataset containing 1848 postoperative NSCLC patients. Experimental results showed that the ELAS achieved the best averaged 0.736 AUROC value and 0.453 AUPRC value for 6 prognostic tasks and obtained significant improvements in comparison with the SVM, AdaBoost, Bagging, SMOTE and TomekLinks.

Conclusions

We conclude that the ELAS can effectively alleviate the imbalanced data problem in NSCLC prognostic prediction and demonstrates good potential for future postoperative NSCLC prognostic prediction.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12911-022-01960-0.

Radiomics for the Prediction of Overall Survival in Patients with Bladder Cancer Prior to Radical Cystectomy

(1) Background: To evaluate radiomics features as well as a combined model with clinical parameters for predicting overall survival in patients with bladder cancer (BCa). (2) Methods: This retrospective study included 301 BCa patients who received radical cystectomy (RC) and pelvic lymphadenectomy. Radiomics features were extracted from the regions of the primary tumor and pelvic lymph nodes as well as the peritumoral regions in preoperative CT scans. Cross-validation was performed in the training cohort, and a Cox regression model with an elastic net penalty was trained using radiomics features and clinical parameters. The models were evaluated with the time-dependent area under the ROC curve (AUC), Brier score and calibration curves. (3) Results: The median follow-up time was 56 months (95% CI: 48−74 months). In the follow-up period from 1 to 7 years after RC, radiomics models achieved comparable predictive performance to validated clinical parameters with an integrated AUC of 0.771 (95% CI: 0.657−0.869) compared to an integrated AUC of 0.761 (95% CI: 0.617−0.874) for the prediction of overall survival (p = 0.98). A combined clinical and radiomics model stratified patients into high-risk and low-risk groups with significantly different overall survival (p < 0.001). (4) Conclusions: Radiomics features based on preoperative CT scans have prognostic value in predicting overall survival before RC. Therefore, radiomics may guide early clinical decision-making.

Prediction of Mortality after Burn Surgery in Critically Ill Burn Patients Using Machine Learning Models

Severe burns may lead to a series of pathophysiological processes that result in death. Machine learning models that demonstrate prognostic performance can be used to build analytical models to predict postoperative mortality. This study aimed to identify machine learning models with the best diagnostic performance for predicting mortality in critically ill burn patients after burn surgery, and then compare them. Clinically important features for predicting mortality in patients after burn surgery were selected using a random forest (RF) regressor. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and classifier accuracy were evaluated to compare the predictive accuracy of different machine learning algorithms, including RF, adaptive boosting, decision tree, linear support vector machine, and logistic regression. A total of 731 patients met the inclusion and exclusion criteria. The 90-day mortality of the critically ill burn patients after burn surgery was 27.1% (198/731). RF showed the highest AUC (0.922, 95% confidence interval = 0.902–0.942) among the models, with sensitivity and specificity of 66.2% and 93.8%, respectively. The most significant predictors for mortality after burn surgery as per machine learning models were total body surface area burned, red cell distribution width, and age. The RF algorithm showed the best performance for predicting mortality.

Application of kNN and SVM to predict the prognosis of advanced schistosomiasis

Predictive models for prognosis of small sample advanced schistosomiasis patients have not been well studied. We aimed to construct prognostic predictive models of small sample advanced schistosomiasis patients using two machine learning algorithms, k nearest neighbour (kNN) and support vector machine (SVM) utilising routinely available data under the government medical assistance programme. The predictive models were derived from 229 patients from Xiantao and externally validated by 77 patients of Jiayu, two county-level cities in Hubei province, China. Candidate predictors were selected according to expert opinions and literature reports, including clinical features, sociodemographic characteristics, and medical examinations results. An area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity were used to evaluate the models' predictive performances. The AUC values were 0.879 for the kNN model and 0.890 for the SVM model in the training set, 0.852 for the kNN model, and 0.785 for the SVM model in the external validation set. The kNN and SVM models can be used to improve the health services provided by healthcare planners, clinicians, and policymakers.

IPOscore: An interactive web-based platform for postoperative surgical complications analysis and prediction in the oncology domain

BACKGROUND

The performance of traditional risk score systems to predict (post)-operative outcomes is limited. This weakness reduces confidence in its use to support clinical risk mitigation decisions. However, the rapid growth of health data in the last years offers principles to deal with some of these limitations. In this regard, the data allows the extraction of relevant information for both patients stratification and the rigorous identification of associated risk factors. The patients can then be targeted to specific preoperative optimization programs, thus contributing to the reduction of associated morbidity and mortality.

OBJECTIVES

The main goal of this work is, therefore, to provide a clinical decision support system (CDSS) based on data-driven modeling methods for surgical risk prediction specific for cancer patients in Portugal.

RESULTS

The result is IPOscore, a single web-based platform aimed at being an innovative approach to assist clinical decision-making in the surgical oncology domain. This system includes a database to store/manage the clinical data collected in a structured format, data visualization and analysis tools, and predictive machine learning models to predict postoperative outcomes in cancer patients. IPOscore also includes a pattern mining module based on biclustering to assess the discriminative power of a pattern towards postsurgical outcomes. Additionally, a mobile application is provided to this end.

CONCLUSIONS

The IPOscore platform is a valuable tool for surgical oncologists not only for clinical data management but also as a preventative and predictive healthcare system. Currently, this clinical support tool is being tested at the Portuguese Institute of Oncology (IPO-Porto), and can be accessed online at https://iposcore.org.

Prospective Comparison of Medical Oncologists and a Machine Learning Model to Predict 3-Month Mortality in Patients With Metastatic Solid Tumors

Importance

To date, oncologist and model prognostic performance have been assessed independently and mostly retrospectively; however, how model prognostic performance compares with oncologist prognostic performance prospectively remains unknown.

Objective

To compare oncologist performance with a model in predicting 3-month mortality for patients with metastatic solid tumors in an outpatient setting.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This prognostic study evaluated prospective predictions for a cohort of patients with metastatic solid tumors seen in outpatient oncology clinics at a National Cancer Institute-designated cancer center and associated satellites between December 6, 2019, and August 6, 2021. Oncologists (57 physicians and 17 advanced practice clinicians) answered a 3-month surprise question (3MSQ) within clinical pathways. A model was trained with electronic health record data from January 1, 2013, to April 24, 2019, to identify patients at high risk of 3-month mortality and deployed silently in October 2019. Analysis was limited to oncologist prognostications with a model prediction within the preceding 30 days.

Exposures

Three-month surprise question and gradient-boosting binary classifier.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was performance comparison between oncologists and the model to predict 3-month mortality. The primary performance metric was the positive predictive value (PPV) at the sensitivity achieved by the medical oncologists with their 3MSQ answers.

Results

A total of 74 oncologists answered 3099 3MSQs for 2041 patients with advanced cancer (median age, 62.6 [range, 18-96] years; 1271 women [62.3%]). In this cohort with a 15% prevalence of 3-month mortality and 30% sensitivity for both oncologists and the model, the PPV of oncologists was 34.8% (95% CI, 30.1%-39.5%) and the PPV of the model was 60.0% (95% CI, 53.6%-66.3%). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the model was 81.2% (95% CI, 79.1%-83.3%). The model significantly outperformed the oncologists in short-term mortality.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this prognostic study, the model outperformed oncologists overall and within the breast and gastrointestinal cancer cohorts in predicting 3-month mortality for patients with advanced cancer. These findings suggest that further studies may be useful to examine how model predictions could improve oncologists' prognostic confidence and patient-centered goal-concordant care at the end of life.

Machine learning in medical applications: A review of state-of-the-art methods

Applications of machine learning (ML) methods have been used extensively to solve various complex challenges in recent years in various application areas, such as medical, financial, environmental, marketing, security, and industrial applications. ML methods are characterized by their ability to examine many data and discover exciting relationships, provide interpretation, and identify patterns. ML can help enhance the reliability, performance, predictability, and accuracy of diagnostic systems for many diseases. This survey provides a comprehensive review of the use of ML in the medical field highlighting standard technologies and how they affect medical diagnosis. Five major medical applications are deeply discussed, focusing on adapting the ML models to solve the problems in cancer, medical chemistry, brain, medical imaging, and wearable sensors. Finally, this survey provides valuable references and guidance for researchers, practitioners, and decision-makers framing future research and development directions.

Machine Learning Algorithms as a Computer-Assisted Decision Tool for Oral Cancer Prognosis and Management Decisions: A Systematic Review

INTRODUCTION

Despite multiple prognostic indicators described for oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OCSCC), its management still continues to be a matter of debate. Machine learning is a subset of artificial intelligence that enables computers to learn from historical data, gather insights, and make predictions about new data using the model learned. Therefore, it can be a potential tool in the field of head and neck cancer.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review.

RESULTS

A total of 81 manuscripts were revised, and 46 studies met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 38 were excluded for the following reasons: use of a classical statistical method (N = 16), nonspecific for OCSCC (N = 15), and not being related to OCSCC survival (N = 7). In total, 8 studies were included in the final analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

ML has the potential to significantly advance research in the field of OCSCC. Advantages are related to the use and training of ML models because of their capability to continue training continuously when more data become available. Future ML research will allow us to improve and democratize the application of algorithms to improve the prediction of cancer prognosis and its management worldwide.

A systematic review of the applications of Expert Systems (ES) and machine learning (ML) in clinical urology

BACKGROUND

Testing a hypothesis for 'factors-outcome effect' is a common quest, but standard statistical regression analysis tools are rendered ineffective by data contaminated with too many noisy variables. Expert Systems (ES) can provide an alternative methodology in analysing data to identify variables with the highest correlation to the outcome. By applying their effective machine learning (ML) abilities, significant research time and costs can be saved. The study aims to systematically review the applications of ES in urological research and their methodological models for effective multi-variate analysis. Their domains, development and validity will be identified.

METHODS

The PRISMA methodology was applied to formulate an effective method for data gathering and analysis. This study search included seven most relevant information sources: WEB OF SCIENCE, EMBASE, BIOSIS CITATION INDEX, SCOPUS, PUBMED, Google Scholar and MEDLINE. Eligible articles were included if they applied one of the known ML models for a clear urological research question involving multivariate analysis. Only articles with pertinent research methods in ES models were included. The analysed data included the system model, applications, input/output variables, target user, validation, and outcomes. Both ML models and the variable analysis were comparatively reported for each system.

RESULTS

The search identified n = 1087 articles from all databases and n = 712 were eligible for examination against inclusion criteria. A total of 168 systems were finally included and systematically analysed demonstrating a recent increase in uptake of ES in academic urology in particular artificial neural networks with 31 systems. Most of the systems were applied in urological oncology (prostate cancer = 15, bladder cancer = 13) where diagnostic, prognostic and survival predictor markers were investigated. Due to the heterogeneity of models and their statistical tests, a meta-analysis was not feasible.

CONCLUSION

ES utility offers an effective ML potential and their applications in research have demonstrated a valid model for multi-variate analysis. The complexity of their development can challenge their uptake in urological clinics whilst the limitation of the statistical tools in this domain has created a gap for further research studies. Integration of computer scientists in academic units has promoted the use of ES in clinical urological research.

On the predictability of postoperative complications for cancer patients: a Portuguese cohort study

Postoperative complications are still hard to predict despite the efforts towards the creation of clinical risk scores. The published scores contribute for the creation of specialized tools, but with limited predictive performance and reusability for implementation in the oncological context. This work aims to predict postoperative complications risk for cancer patients, offering two major contributions. First, to develop and evaluate a machine learning-based risk score, specific for the Portuguese population using a retrospective cohort of 847 cancer patients undergoing surgery between 2016 and 2018, for 4 outcomes of interest: (1) existence of postoperative complications, (2) severity level of complications, (3) number of days in the Intermediate Care Unit (ICU), and (4) postoperative mortality within 1 year. An additional cohort of 137 cancer patients from the same center was used for validation. Second, to improve the interpretability of the predictive models. In order to achieve these objectives, we propose an approach for the learning of risk predictors, offering new perspectives and insights into the clinical decision process. For postoperative complications the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC) was 0.69, for complications’ severity AUC was 0.65, for the days in the ICU the mean absolute error was 1.07 days, and for 1-year postoperative mortality the AUC was 0.74, calculated on the development cohort. In this study, predictive models which could help to guide physicians at organizational and clinical decision making were developed. Additionally, a web-based decision support tool is further provided to this end.

Predicting Postoperative Complications in Cancer Patients: A Survey Bridging Classical and Machine Learning Contributions to Postsurgical Risk Analysis

Simple Summary

Structured survey on the predictive analysis of postoperative complications in oncology, bridging classic risk scores with machine learning advances, and further establishing principles to guide the design of cohort studies and the predictive modeling of postsurgical risks.

Abstract

Postoperative complications can impose a significant burden, increasing morbidity, mortality, and the in-hospital length of stay. Today, the number of studies available on the prognostication of postsurgical complications in cancer patients is growing and has already created a considerable set of dispersed contributions. This work provides a comprehensive survey on postoperative risk analysis, integrating principles from classic risk scores and machine-learning approaches within a coherent frame. A qualitative comparison is offered, taking into consideration the available cohort data and the targeted postsurgical outcomes of morbidity (such as the occurrence, nature or severity of postsurgical complications and hospitalization needs) and mortality. This work further establishes a taxonomy to assess the adequacy of cohort studies and guide the development and assessment of new learning approaches for the study and prediction of postoperative complications.

Development and Assessment of a Machine Learning Model to Help Predict Survival Among Patients With Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Importance

Predicting survival of oral squamous cell carcinoma through the use of prediction modeling has been underused, and the development of prediction models would augment clinicians' ability to provide absolute risk estimates for individual patients.

Objectives

To develop a prediction model using machine learning for 5-year overall survival among patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma and compare this model with a prediction model created from the TNM (Tumor, Node, Metastasis) clinical and pathologic stage.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A retrospective cohort study was conducted of 33 065 patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma from the National Cancer Data Base between January 1, 2004, and December 31, 2011. Patients were excluded if the treatment was considered palliative, staging demonstrated T0 or Tis, or survival or staging data were missing. Patient, tumor, treatment, and outcome information were obtained from the National Cancer Data Base. The data were split into a distribution of 80% for training and 20% for testing. The model was created using 2-class decision forest architecture. Permutation feature importance scores were used to determine the variables that were used in the model's prediction and their order of significance. Statistical analysis was conducted from August 1, 2018, to January 10, 2019.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Ability to predict 5-year overall survival assessed through area under the curve, accuracy, precision, and recall.

Results

Among the 33 065 patients in the study, the mean (SD) age was 64.6 (14.0) years, 19 791 were men (59.9%), 13 274 were women (40.1%), and 29 783 (90.1%) were white. At 60 months, there were 16 745 deaths (50.6%). The median time of follow-up was 56.8 months (range, 0-155.6 months). Age, pathologic T stage, positive margins at the time of surgery, lymph node size, and institutional identification were identified among the most significant variables. The calculated area under the curve for this machine learning model was 0.80 (95% CI, 0.79-0.81), accuracy was 71%, precision was 71%, and recall was 68%. In comparison, the calculated area under the curve of the TNM staging system was 0.68 (95% CI, 0.67-0.70), accuracy was 65%, precision was 69%, and recall was 52%.

Conclusions and Relevance

Using machine learning algorithms, a prediction model was created based on patient social, demographic, clinical, and pathologic features. The developed prediction model proved to be better than a prediction model that exclusively used TNM pathologic and clinical stage according to all performance metrics. This study highlights the role that machine learning may play in individual patient risk estimation in the era of big data.

Artificial Intelligence and Its Impact on Urological Diseases and Management: A Comprehensive Review of the Literature

Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have certainly had a significant impact on the healthcare industry. In urology, AI has been widely adopted to deal with numerous disorders, irrespective of their severity, extending from conditions such as benign prostate hyperplasia to critical illnesses such as urothelial and prostate cancer. In this article, we aim to discuss how algorithms and techniques of artificial intelligence are equipped in the field of urology to detect, treat, and estimate the outcomes of urological diseases. Furthermore, we explain the advantages that come from using AI over any existing traditional methods.

Machine Learning and Surgical Outcomes Prediction: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Machine learning (ML) has garnered increasing attention as a means to quantitatively analyze the growing and complex medical data to improve individualized patient care. We herein aim to critically examine the current state of ML in predicting surgical outcomes, evaluate the quality of currently available research, and propose areas of improvement for future uses of ML in surgery.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) checklist. PubMed, MEDLINE, and Embase databases were reviewed under search syntax "machine learning" and "surgery" for papers published between 2015 and 2020.

RESULTS

Of the initial 2677 studies, 45 papers met inclusion and exclusion criteria. Fourteen different subspecialties were represented with neurosurgery being most common. The most frequently used ML algorithms were random forest (n = 19), artificial neural network (n = 17), and logistic regression (n = 17). Common outcomes included postoperative mortality, complications, patient reported quality of life and pain improvement. All studies which compared ML algorithms to conventional studies which used area under the curve (AUC) to measure accuracy found improved outcome prediction with ML models.

CONCLUSIONS

While still in its early stages, ML models offer surgeons an opportunity to capitalize on the myriad of clinical data available and improve individualized patient care. Limitations included heterogeneous outcome and imperfect quality of some of the papers. We therefore urge future research to agree upon methods of outcome reporting and require basic quality standards.

Identifying the Risk Factors Associated with Nursing Home Residents' Pressure Ulcers Using Machine Learning Methods

BACKGROUND

Machine learning (ML) can keep improving predictions and generating automated knowledge via data-driven predictors or decisions.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to compare different ML methods including random forest, logistics regression, linear support vector machine (SVM), polynomial SVM, radial SVM, and sigmoid SVM in terms of their accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, negative predictor values, and positive predictive values by validating real datasets to predict factors for pressure ulcers (PUs).

METHODS

We applied representative ML algorithms (random forest, logistic regression, linear SVM, polynomial SVM, radial SVM, and sigmoid SVM) to develop a prediction model (N = 60).

RESULTS

The random forest model showed the greatest accuracy (0.814), followed by logistic regression (0.782), polynomial SVM (0.779), radial SVM (0.770), linear SVM (0.767), and sigmoid SVM (0.674).

CONCLUSIONS

The random forest model showed the greatest accuracy for predicting PUs in nursing homes (NHs). Diverse factors that predict PUs in NHs including NH characteristics and residents' characteristics were identified according to diverse ML methods. These factors should be considered to decrease PUs in NH residents.

3D Non-Local Neural Network: A Non-Invasive Biomarker for Immunotherapy Treatment Outcome Prediction. Case-Study: Metastatic Urothelial Carcinoma

Immunotherapy is regarded as one of the most significant breakthroughs in cancer treatment. Unfortunately, only a small percentage of patients respond properly to the treatment. Moreover, to date, there are no efficient bio-markers able to early discriminate the patients eligible for this treatment. In order to help overcome these limitations, an innovative non-invasive deep pipeline, integrating Computed Tomography (CT) imaging, is investigated for the prediction of a response to immunotherapy treatment. We report preliminary results collected as part of a case study in which we validated the implemented method on a clinical dataset of patients affected by Metastatic Urothelial Carcinoma. The proposed pipeline aims to discriminate patients with high chances of response from those with disease progression. Specifically, the authors propose ad-hoc 3D Deep Networks integrating Self-Attention mechanisms in order to estimate the immunotherapy treatment response from CT-scan images and such hemato-chemical data of the patients. The performance evaluation (average accuracy close to 92%) confirms the effectiveness of the proposed approach as an immunotherapy treatment response biomarker.

Autonomous Corrosion Assessment of Reinforced Concrete Structures: Feasibility Study

In this work, technological feasibility of autonomous corrosion assessment of reinforced concrete structures is studied. Corrosion of reinforcement bars (rebar), induced by carbonation or chloride penetration, is one of the leading causes for deterioration of concrete structures throughout the globe. Continuous nondestructive in-service monitoring of carbonation through pH and chloride ion (Cl-) concentration in concrete is indispensable for early detection of corrosion and making appropriate decisions, which ultimately make the lifecycle management of RC structures optimal from resources and safety perspectives. Critical state-of-the-art review of pH and Cl- sensors revealed that the majority of the sensors have high sensitivity, reliability, and stability in concrete environment, though the experiments were carried out for relatively short periods. Among the reviewed works, only three attempted to monitor Cl- wirelessly, albeit over a very short range. As part of the feasibility study, this work recommends the use of internet of things (IoT) and machine learning for autonomous corrosion condition assessment of RC structures.

Application of Machine Learning Methods in Nursing Home Research

Background: A machine learning (ML) system is able to construct algorithms to continue improving predictions and generate automated knowledge through data-driven predictors or decisions. Objective: The purpose of this study was to compare six ML methods (random forest (RF), logistics regression, linear support vector machine (SVM), polynomial SVM, radial SVM, and sigmoid SVM) of predicting falls in nursing homes (NHs). Methods: We applied three representative six-ML algorithms to the preprocessed dataset to develop a prediction model (N = 60). We used an accuracy measure to evaluate prediction models. Results: RF was the most accurate model (0.883), followed by the logistic regression model, SVM linear, and polynomial SVM (0.867). Conclusions: RF was a powerful algorithm to discern predictors of falls in NHs. For effective fall management, researchers should consider organizational characteristics as well as personal factors. Recommendations for Future Research: To confirm the superiority of ML in NH research, future studies are required to discern additional potential factors using newly introduced ML methods.

Predicting postoperative non-small cell lung cancer prognosis via long short-term relational regularization

OBJECTIVES

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death worldwide. Prognosis of lung cancer plays a crucial role in the clinical decision-making process to optimize the treatment for patients. Most of the existing data-driven prognostic prediction models explore the relations between patient's characteristics and outcomes at a specific time interval. Although valuable, they neglect the relations between long-term and short-term prognoses and thus may limit the prediction performance.

METHODS

In this study, we present a novel prognostic prediction approach for postoperative NSCLC patients. Specifically, we formulate the learning objective function by exploiting the relations between long-term and short-term prognoses via a long short-term relational regularization. The regularization term is composed of two parts, i.e., the similarities between prognoses measured by patients' outcomes and the L₂ -norms between the corresponding prognoses' weight vectors. Based on this regularization, the proposed method can extract critical risk factors that comprehensively consider the long-term and short-term prognoses to facilitate the estimation of clinical risks.

RESULTS

We evaluate the proposed model on a clinical dataset containing 693 consecutive postoperative NSCLC patients with more than 5-year follow-up from 2006 to 2015. Our best models achieve 0.743, 0.709, and 0.746 AUCs for 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year survival prediction, 0.696, 0.724, and 0.736 AUCs for 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year recurrence prediction, respectively. The experimental results show the efficiency of our proposed model in improving the performances on 1-year prognostic prediction in comparison with benchmark models. By comparing with the model without the long short-term relational regularization, the proposed model extracts more consistent critical risk factors for both long-term and short-term prognoses and contains fewer unreasonable risk factors under the clinician's review.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that the proposed model can effectively exploit the relations between long-term and short-term prognoses. And the risk factors recognized by the proposed model have the potentials for further prognostic prediction of postoperative non-small cell lung cancer patients.

Comparing Logistic Regression Models with Alternative Machine Learning Methods to Predict the Risk of Drug Intoxication Mortality

(1) Medical research has shown an increasing interest in machine learning, permitting massive multivariate data analysis. Thus, we developed drug intoxication mortality prediction models, and compared machine learning models and traditional logistic regression. (2) Categorized as drug intoxication, 8,937 samples were extracted from the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2008-2017). We trained, validated, and tested each model through data and compared their performance using three measures: Brier score, calibration slope, and calibration-in-the-large. (3) A chi-square test demonstrated that mortality risk statistically significantly differed according to severity, intent, toxic substance, age, and sex. The multilayer perceptron model (MLP) had the highest area under the curve (AUC), and lowest Brier score in training and validation phases, while the logistic regression model (LR) showed the highest AUC (0.827) and lowest Brier score (0.0307) in the testing phase. MLP also had the second-highest AUC (0.816) and second-lowest Brier score (0.003258) in the testing phase, demonstrating better performance than the decision-making tree model. (4) Given the complexity of choosing tuning parameters, LR proved competitive when using medical datasets, which require strict accuracy.

Artificial intelligence and neural networks in urology: current clinical applications

INTRODUCTION

As we enter the era of "big data," an increasing amount of complex health-care data will become available. These data are often redundant, "noisy," and characterized by wide variability. In order to offer a precise and transversal view of a clinical scenario the artificial intelligence (AI) with machine learning (ML) algorithms and Artificial neuron networks (ANNs) process were adopted, with a promising wide diffusion in the near future. The present work aims to provide a comprehensive and critical overview of the current and potential applications of AI and ANNs in urology.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

A non-systematic review of the literature was performed by screening Medline, PubMed, the Cochrane Database, and Embase to detect pertinent studies regarding the application of AI and ANN in Urology.

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

The main application of AI in urology is the field of genitourinary cancers. Focusing on prostate cancer, AI was applied for the prediction of prostate biopsy results. For bladder cancer, the prediction of recurrence-free probability and diagnostic evaluation were analysed with ML algorithms. For kidney and testis cancer, anecdotal experiences were reported for staging and prediction of diseases recurrence. More recently, AI has been applied in non-oncological diseases like stones and functional urology.

CONCLUSIONS

AI technologies are growing their role in health care; but, up to now, their "real-life" implementation remains limited. However, in the near future, the potential of AI-driven era could change the clinical practice in Urology, improving overall patient outcomes.

Study Progress of Radiomics With Machine Learning for Precision Medicine in Bladder Cancer Management

Bladder cancer is a fatal cancer that happens in the genitourinary tract with quite high morbidity and mortality annually. The high level of recurrence rate ranging from 50 to 80% makes bladder cancer one of the most challenging and costly diseases to manage. Faced with various problems in existing methods, a recently emerging concept for the measurement of imaging biomarkers and extraction of quantitative features called "radiomics" shows great potential in the application of detection, grading, and follow-up management of bladder cancer. Furthermore, machine-learning (ML) algorithms on the basis of "big data" are fueling the powers of radiomics for bladder cancer monitoring in the era of precision medicine. Currently, the usefulness of the novel combination of radiomics and ML has been demonstrated by a large number of successful cases. It possesses outstanding strengths including non-invasiveness, low cost, and high efficiency, which may serve as a revolution to tumor assessment and emancipate workforce. However, for the extensive clinical application in the future, more efforts should be made to break down the limitations caused by technology deficiencies, inherent problems during the process of radiomic analysis, as well as the quality of present studies.

Current status of artificial intelligence applications in urology and their potential to influence clinical practice

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the applications of artificial intelligence (AI) in diagnosis, treatment and outcome predictionin urologic diseases and evaluate its advantages over traditional models and methods.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A literature search was performed after PROSPERO registration (CRD42018103701) and in compliance with Preferred Reported Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) methods. Articles between 1994 and 2018 using the search terms "urology", "artificial intelligence", "machine learning" were included and categorized by the application of AI in urology. Review articles, editorial comments, articles with no full-text access, and nonurologic studies were excluded.

RESULTS

Initial search yielded 231 articles, but after excluding duplicates and following full-text review and examination of article references, only 111 articles were included in the final analysis. AI applications in urology include: utilizing radiomic imaging or ultrasonic echo data to improve or automate cancer detection or outcome prediction, utilizing digitized tissue specimen images to automate detection of cancer on pathology slides, and combining patient clinical data, biomarkers, or gene expression to assist disease diagnosis or outcome prediction. Some studies employed AI to plan brachytherapy and radiation treatments while others used video based or robotic automated performance metrics to objectively evaluate surgical skill. Compared to conventional statistical analysis, 71.8% of studies concluded that AI is superior in diagnosis and outcome prediction.

CONCLUSION

AI has been widely adopted in urology. Compared to conventional statistics AI approaches are more accurate in prediction and more explorative for analyzing large data cohorts. With an increasing library of patient data accessible to clinicians, AI may help facilitate evidence-based and individualized patient care.

Prediction of complication related death after radical cystectomy for bladder cancer with machine learning methodology

Purpose: To create a pre-operatively usable tool to identify patients at high risk of early death (within 90 days post-operatively) after radical cystectomy and to assess potential risk factors for post-operative and surgery related mortality.Materials and methods: Material consists of 1099 consecutive radical cystectomy (RC) patients operated at 16 different hospitals in Finland 2005-2014. Machine learning methodology was utilized. For model building and testing, the data was randomly divided into training data (n = 733, 66.7%) and independent testing data (n = 366, 33.3%). To predict the risk of early death after RC from baseline variables, a binary classifier was constructed using logistic regression with lasso regularization. Finally, a user-friendly risk table was constructed for practical use.Results: The model resulted in an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.73 (95% CI = 0.59-0.87). The strongest risk factors were: American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status classification (ASA), congestive heart failure (CHF), age adjusted Charlson comorbidity index (ACCI) and chronic pulmonary disease.Conclusion: This study with a novel methodological approach adds CHF and chronic pulmonary disease to previously known independent prognostic risk factors for early death after RC. Importantly, the risk prediction tool uses purely pre-operative data and can be used before surgery.

Prediction of irinotecan toxicity in metastatic colorectal cancer patients based on machine learning models with pharmacokinetic parameters

Irinotecan (CPT-11) is a drug used against a wide variety of tumors, which can cause severe toxicity, possibly leading to the delay or suspension of the cycle, with the consequent impact on the prognosis of survival. The main goal of this work is to predict the toxicities derived from CPT-11 using artificial intelligence methods. The data for this study is conformed of 53 cycles of FOLFIRINOX, corresponding to patients with metastatic colorectal cancer. Supported by several demographic data, blood markers and pharmacokinetic parameters resulting from a non-compartmental pharmacokinetic study of CPT-11 and its metabolites (SN-38 and SN-38-G), we use machine learning techniques to predict high degrees of different toxicities (leukopenia, neutropenia and diarrhea) in new patients. We predict high degree of leukopenia with an accuracy of 76%, neutropenia with 75% and diarrhea with 91%. Among other variables, this study shows that the areas under the curve of CPT-11, SN-38 and SN-38-G play a relevant role in the prediction of the studied toxicities. The presented models allow to predict the degree of toxicity for each cycle of treatment according to the particularities of each patient.