Prediction of mortality after radical cystectomy for bladder cancer by machine learning techniques

A comparison of logistic regression models with alternative machine learning methods to predict the risk of in-hospital mortality in emergency medical admissions via external validation

We compare the performance of logistic regression with several alternative machine learning methods to estimate the risk of death for patients following an emergency admission to hospital based on the patients' first blood test results and physiological measurements using an external validation approach. We trained and tested each model using data from one hospital (n = 24,696) and compared the performance of these models in data from another hospital (n = 13,477). We used two performance measures - the calibration slope and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The logistic model performed reasonably well - calibration slope: 0.90, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.847 compared to the other machine learning methods. Given the complexity of choosing tuning parameters of these methods, the performance of logistic regression with transformations for in-hospital mortality prediction was competitive with the best performing alternative machine learning methods with no evidence of overfitting.

Use of machine learning to predict early biochemical recurrence after robot-assisted prostatectomy

OBJECTIVES

To train and compare machine-learning algorithms with traditional regression analysis for the prediction of early biochemical recurrence after robot-assisted prostatectomy.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A prospectively collected dataset of 338 patients who underwent robot-assisted prostatectomy for localized prostate cancer was examined. We used three supervised machine-learning algorithms and 19 different training variables (demographic, clinical, imaging and operative data) in a hypothesis-free manner to build models that could predict patients with biochemical recurrence at 1 year. We also performed traditional Cox regression analysis for comparison.

RESULTS

K-nearest neighbour, logistic regression and random forest classifier were used as machine-learning models. Classic Cox regression analysis had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.865 for the prediction of biochemical recurrence. All three of our machine-learning models (K-nearest neighbour (AUC 0.903), random forest tree (AUC 0.924) and logistic regression (AUC 0.940) outperformed the conventional statistical regression model. Accuracy prediction scores for K-nearest neighbour, random forest tree and logistic regression were 0.976, 0.953 and 0.976, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Machine-learning techniques can produce accurate disease predictability better that traditional statistical regression. These tools may prove clinically useful for the automated prediction of patients who develop early biochemical recurrence after robot-assisted prostatectomy. For these patients, appropriate individualized treatment options can improve outcomes and quality of life.

Radiomics-guided therapy for bladder cancer: Using an optimal biomarker approach to determine extent of bladder cancer invasion from t2-weighted magnetic resonance images

Background

Current clinical staging methods are unable to accurately define the extent of invasion of localized bladder cancer, which affects the proper use of systemic therapy, surgery, and radiation. Our purpose was to test a novel radiomics approach to identify optimal imaging biomarkers from T2-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans that accurately classify localized bladder cancer into 2 tumor stage groups (≤T2 vs >T2) at both the patient level and within bladder subsectors.

Method and Materials

Preoperative T2-weighted MRI scans of 65 consecutive patients followed by radical cystectomy were identified. A 3-layer, shell-like volume of interest (VOI) was defined on each MRI slice: Inner (lumen), middle (bladder wall), and outer (perivesical tissue). An optimal biomarker method was used to identify features from 15,834 intensity and texture properties that maximized the classification of patients into ≤T2 versus >T2 groups. A leave-one-out strategy was used to cross-validate the performance of the identified biomarker feature set at the patient level. The performance of the feature set was then evaluated at the subsector level of the bladder by dividing the VOIs into 8 radial sectors.

Results

A total of 9 optimal biomarker features were derived and demonstrated a sensitivity, specificity, accuracy of prediction, and area under a receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.742, 0.824, 0.785, and 0.806, respectively, at the patient level and 0.681, 0.788, 0.763, and 0.813, respectively, at the radial sector level. All 9 selected features were extracted from the middle shell of the VOI and based on texture properties.

Conclusions

An approach to select a small, highly independent feature set that is derived from T2-weighted MRI scans that separate patients with bladder cancer into ≤T2 versus >T2 groups at both the patient level and within subsectors of the bladder has been developed and tested. With external validation, this radiomics approach could improve the clinical staging of bladder cancer and optimize therapeutic management.

Healthcare predictive analytics: An overview with a focus on Saudi Arabia

Despite a newfound wealth of data and information, the healthcare sector is lacking in actionable knowledge. This is largely because healthcare data, though plentiful, tends to be inherently complex and fragmented. Health data analytics, with an emphasis on predictive analytics, is emerging as a transformative tool that can enable more proactive and preventative treatment options. This review considers the ways in which predictive analytics has been applied in the for-profit business sector to generate well-timed and accurate predictions of key outcomes, with a focus on key features that may be applicable to healthcare-specific applications. Published medical research presenting assessments of predictive analytics technology in medical applications are reviewed, with particular emphasis on how hospitals have integrated predictive analytics into their day-to-day healthcare services to improve quality of care. This review also highlights the numerous challenges of implementing predictive analytics in healthcare settings and concludes with a discussion of current efforts to implement healthcare data analytics in the developing country, Saudi Arabia.

Using machine learning methods for predicting inhospital mortality in patients undergoing open repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm

An abdominal aortic aneurysm is an abnormal dilatation of the aortic vessel at abdominal level. This disease presents high rate of mortality and complications causing a decrease in the quality of life and increasing the cost of treatment. To estimate the mortality risk of patients undergoing surgery is complex due to the variables associated. The use of clinical decision support systems based on machine learning could help medical staff to improve the results of surgery and get a better understanding of the disease. In this work, the authors present a predictive system of inhospital mortality in patients who were undergoing to open repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm. Different methods as multilayer perceptron, radial basis function and Bayesian networks are used. Results are measured in terms of accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the classifiers, achieving an accuracy higher than 95%. The developing of a system based on the algorithms tested can be useful for medical staff in order to make a better planning of care and reducing undesirable surgery results and the cost of the post-surgical treatments.