Estimating Geriatric Mortality after Injury Using Age, Injury Severity, and Performance of a Transfusion: The Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score

Predictors of elderly mortality after trauma: A novel outcome score

INTRODUCTION

Elderly trauma patients are at high risk for mortality, even when presenting with minor injuries. Previous prognostic models are poorly used because of their reliance on elements unavailable during the index hospitalization. The purpose of this study was to develop a predictive algorithm to accurately estimate in-hospital mortality using easily available metrics.

METHODS

The National Trauma Databank was used to identify patients 65 years and older. Data were split into derivation (2007-2013) and validation (2014-2015) data sets. There was no overlap between data sets. Factors included age, comorbidities, physiologic parameters, and injury types. A two-tiered scoring system to predict in-hospital mortality was developed: a quick elderly mortality after trauma (qEMAT) score for use at initial patient presentation and a full EMAT (fEMAT) score for use after radiologic evaluation. The final model (stepwise forward selection, p < 0.05) was chosen based on calibration and discrimination analysis. Calibration (Brier score) and discrimination (area under the receiving operating characteristic curve [AuROC]) were evaluated. Because National Trauma Databank did not include blood product transfusion, an element of the Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score (GTOS), a regional trauma registry was used to compare qEMAT versus GTOS. A mobile-based application is currently available for cost-free utilization.

RESULTS

A total of 840,294 patients were included in the derivation data set and 427,358 patients in the validation data set. The fEMAT score (median, 91; S.D., 82-102) included 26 factors, and the qEMAT score included eight factors. The AuROC was 0.86 for fEMAT (Brier, 0.04) and 0.84 for qEMAT. The fEMAT outperformed other trauma mortality prediction models (e.g., Trauma and Injury Severity Score-Penetrating and Trauma and Injury Severity Score-Blunt, age + Injury Severity Score). The qEMAT outperformed the GTOS (AuROC, 0.87 vs. 0.83).

CONCLUSION

The qEMAT and fEMAT accurately estimate the probability of in-hospital mortality and can be easily calculated on admission. This information could aid in deciding transfer to tertiary referral center, patient/family counseling, and palliative care utilization.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Epidemiological Study, level IV.

Characterizing Early Inpatient Death After Trauma

BACKGROUND

There is a paucity of data to predict early death or futility after trauma. The objective of this study was to characterize the laboratory values, blood product administration, and hospital disposition for patients with trauma who died within 72 h of admission.

METHODS

All deaths within 72 h of admission over a 5-y period at a level I trauma center were reviewed. Blood transfusion within the first 4 h of arrival and patient disposition from the emergency department to the operating room (OR), surgical intensive care unit, or the neuroscience intensive care unit (NSICU) were analyzed. Kaplan-Meier curves were generated to determine time to death.

RESULTS

A total of 622 subjects were identified; 39.5% died in the emergency department, 10.6% went directly to the OR, 13.6% were admitted to the surgical intensive care unit, and 29.7% admitted to the NSICU. Of these subjects, 201 (32.2%) patients received blood within the first 4 h. By 24 h, early blood transfusion was associated with more rapid death for patients who were admitted to the NSICU (80% versus 60% mortality, P = 0.01) but not for patients taken directly to the OR (80% versus 70% mortality, P = 0.2). Admission coagulopathy by international normalized ratio (P < 0.01), but not anemia (P = 0.64) or acidosis (P = 0.45), correlated with a shorter time to death. In contrast, laboratory values obtained at 4 h after admission did not correlate with time to death.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data demonstrate that admission coagulation derangement and need for early blood product transfusion are the two factors most associated with early death after injury, particularly in those patients with traumatic brain injury. These data will help construct future models for futility of continued care in patients with trauma.

One-year mortality in geriatric trauma patients: Improving upon the geriatric trauma outcomes score utilizing the social security death index

BACKGROUND

Geriatric Trauma Outcomes Score (GTOS) predicts in-patient mortality in geriatric trauma patients and has been validated in a prospective multicenter trial and expanded to predict adverse discharge (GTOS II). We hypothesized that these formulations actually underestimate the downstream sequelae of injury and sought to predict longer-term mortality in geriatric trauma patients.

METHODS

The Parkland Memorial Hospital Trauma registry was queried for patients 65 years or older from 2001 to 2013. Patients were then matched to the Social Security Death Index. The primary outcome was 1-year mortality. The original GTOS formula (variables of age, Injury Severity Score [ISS], 24-hour transfusion) was tested to predict 1-year mortality using receiver operator curves. Significant variables on univariate analysis were used to build an optimal multivariate model to predict 1-year mortality (GTOS III).

RESULTS

There were 3,262 patients who met inclusion. Inpatient mortality was 10.0% (324) and increased each year: 15.8%, 1 year; 17.8%, 2 years; and 22.6%, 5 years. The original GTOS equation had an area under the curve of 0.742 for 1-year mortality. Univariate analysis showed that patients with 1-year mortality had on average increased age (75.7 years vs. 79.5 years), ISS (11.1 vs. 19.1), lower GCS score (14.3 vs. 10.5), more likely to require transfusion within 24 hours (11.5% vs. 31.3%), and adverse discharge (19.5% vs. 78.2%; p < 0.0001 for all). Multivariate logistic regression was used to create the optimal equation to predict 1-year mortality: (GTOSIII = age + [0.806 × ISS] + 5.55 [if transfusion in first 24 hours] + 21.69 [if low GCS] + 34.36 [if adverse discharge]); area under the curve of 0.878.

CONCLUSION

Traumatic injury in geriatric patients is associated with high mortality rates at 1 year to 5 years. GTOS III has robust test characteristics to predict death at 1 year and can be used to guide patient centered goals discussions with objective data.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prognostic, level III.

Short-term outcome following significant trauma: increasing age per se has only a relatively low impact

PURPOSE

Ongoing demographic changes go hand in hand with an increasing number of elderly injured. Given the conflicting literature we wanted to know how much age per se, apart from other factors, actually explains the outcome for elderly trauma patients.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data on all significantly injured (new injury severity score, NISS  ≥ 8) adult patients treated at a Swiss trauma center between 01.01.2010 and 31.12.2017. The association of age and other demographic, trauma or treatment-related variables on parameters of short-term outcome was examined using uni- and multivariate analyses (mean ± SD; R²; p < 0.05).

RESULTS

2692 consecutive patients (33.4% female; mean age 58.1 ± 21.7; hospital mortality 10.1%) were studied. Detailed analysis of quinquennial age groups demonstrated a significant decline in outcome with regard to mortality or return-to-home rate following hospital discharge after the age of 60 years (p < 0.001). In univariate analysis, age explained 4.6% and the number of years ≥ 60 5.9% of hospital mortality. In multivariate analysis, the investigated demographic, trauma or treatment-related parameters contributed at 36.5% to prediction of mortality, age added another 1.5% and number of years  ≥ 60 another 2.1% (R²).

CONCLUSION

This monocenter evaluation showed a significant decline in short-term outcome and an increase in hospital resource requirements by the trauma patients investigated after the age of 60 years. Even so, after controlling for demographic, injury and treatment variables, age per se only added less than 2% to the prediction of hospital mortality.

Mortality profile of geriatric trauma at a level 1 trauma center

Background:

The management of geriatric trauma patients is challenging because of the altered physiology and co-existent medical conditions. To study the in-hospital mortality profile of geriatric trauma victims and the parameters associated with the mortality, we conducted this retrospective analysis.

Methods:

In a retrospective review of geriatric trauma admissions (above 60 years) over a 3-year period, we studied the association of age, gender, comorbidities, mechanism of injury (MOI), Glasgow coma score (GCS), injury severity score (ISS), systolic blood pressure, and hemoglobin (Hb) level on admission with hospital mortality. Univariate and Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate odds and find independent associated parameters. P < 0.05 was considered as statistically significant.

Results:

Out of 881 patients, 208 (23.6%) patients died in hospital. The most common MOI was fall (53.3%) followed by motor vehicle collision (31.1%) and other mechanisms (14.5%). The in-hospital mortality was significantly higher and adjusted odds ratio (OR) for mortality were higher for male gender (2.11 [1.04–4.26]), higher ISS (6.75 [2.07–21.95] for ISS >30), low GCS (<8) (4.6 [2.35–8.97]), low Hb (<9) (1.68 [0.79–3.55]), hypotension on admission (32.42 [10.89–96.52]) as compared to other groups. Adjusted OR was 3.19 (1.55–6.56); 7.67 (1.10–53.49); 1.13 (0.08–17.12) for co-existent cardiovascular, renal, and hepatic comorbidities, respectively.

Conclusion:

Male gender, higher ISS, low GCS, low Hb, hypotension on admission, co-existent cardiovascular, renal and hepatic comorbidities are associated with increased mortality in geriatric trauma patients.

Duration of Respiratory Failure After Trauma Is Not Associated With Increased Long-Term Mortality

OBJECTIVES

Although 1-year survival in medically critically ill patients with prolonged mechanical ventilation is less than 50%, the relationship between respiratory failure after trauma and 1-year mortality is unknown. We hypothesize that respiratory failure duration in trauma patients is associated with decreased 1-year survival.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort of trauma patients.

SETTING

Single center, level 1 trauma center.

PATIENTS

Trauma patients admitted from 2011 to 2014; respiratory failure is defined as mechanical ventilation greater than or equal to 48 hours, excluded head Abbreviated Injury Score greater than or equal to 4.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Mortality was calculated from the Washington state death registry. Cohort was divided into short (≤ 14 d) and long (> 14 d) ventilation groups. We compared survival with a Cox proportional hazard model and generated a receiver operator characteristic to describe the respiratory failure and mortality relationship. Data are presented as medians with interquartile ranges and hazard ratios with 95% CIs. We identified 1,503 patients with respiratory failure; median age was 51 years (33-65 yr) and Injury Severity Score was 19 (11-29). Median respiratory failure duration was 3 days (2-6 d) with 10% of patients in the long respiratory failure group. Cohort mortality at 1 year was 16%, and there was no difference in mortality between short and long duration of respiratory failure. Predictions for 1-year mortality based on respiratory failure duration demonstrated an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.57. We determined that respiratory failure patients greater than or equal to 75 years had an increased hazard of death at 1 year, hazard ratio, 6.7 (4.9-9.1), but that within age cohorts, respiratory failure duration did not influence 1-year mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Duration of mechanical ventilation in the critically injured is not associated with 1-year mortality. Duration of ventilation following injury should not be used to predict long-term survival.

Geriatric Trauma Screening Tool: Preinjury Functional Status Dictates Intensive Care Unit Discharge Disposition

Older adults account for an increasing percentage of trauma patients and have worse outcomes when compared with younger populations. Simple prediction tools are needed to designate risk categories among these patients. The Geriatric Trauma Screening Tool (GTST) was developed to risk stratify older adults admitted to the ICU at a Level 1 trauma center. One hundred fifty patients aged ≥ 65 years were prospectively screened for high-risk (HR) injuries, comorbidities, and pre-hospital function using the GTST. Patients who screened for HR were more likely to have an unfavorable disposition than non-HR patients. HR patients had significantly longer ICU and hospital length of stays when compared with non-HR patients. In addition, patients with prior functional impairment were at higher risk for an unfavorable discharge disposition than their counterparts. Implementation of the GTST predicted discharge disposition in geriatric trauma patients admitted to the ICU. Pre-injury functional status was a better predictor of discharge disposition than either the types of HR injuries or the presence of comorbidities. Risk stratification of geriatric trauma patients allows for early engagement of patients and caregivers regarding transitions of care as well as more efficient utilization of hospital resources.

A Comparison of Scoring Systems for Predicting Short- and Long-term Survival After Trauma in Older Adults

OBJECTIVES

Early identification of geriatric patients at high risk for mortality is important to guide clinical care, medical decision making, palliative discussions, quality assurance, and research. We sought to identify injured older adults at highest risk for 30-day mortality using an empirically derived scoring system from available data and to compare it with current prognostic scoring systems.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of injured adults ≥ 65 years transported by 44 emergency medical services (EMS) agencies to 49 emergency departments in Oregon and Washington from January 1, 2011, through December 31, 2011, with follow-up through December 31, 2012. We matched data from EMS to Medicare, inpatient, trauma registries, and vital statistics. Using a primary outcome of 30-day mortality, we empirically derived a new risk score using binary recursive partitioning and compared it to the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), modified frailty index, geriatric trauma outcome score (GTOS), GTOS II, and Injury Severity Score (ISS).

RESULTS

There were 4,849 patients, of whom 234 (4.8%) died within 30 days and 1,040 (21.5%) died within 1 year. The derived score, the geriatric trauma risk indicator (GTRI; emergent airway or CCI ≥ 2), had 87.2% sensitivity (95% confidence interval [CI] = 83.0% to 91.5%) and 30.6% specificity (95% CI = 29.3% to 31.9%) for 30-day mortality (area under the receiving operating characteristic curve [AUROC] = 0.589, 95% CI = 0.566 to 0.611). AUROC values for other scoring systems ranged from 0.592 to 0.678. When the sensitivity for each existing score was held at 90%, specificity values ranged from 7.5% (ISS) to 30.6% (GTRI).

CONCLUSIONS

Older, injured adults transported by EMS to a large variety of trauma and nontrauma hospitals were more likely to die within 30 days if they required emergent airway management or had a higher comorbidity burden. When compared to other risk measures and holding sensitivity constant near 90%, the GTRI had higher specificity, despite a lower AUROC. Using GTOS II or the GTRI may better identify high-risk older adults than traditional scores, such as ISS, but identification of an ideal prognostic tool remains elusive.

Age is associated with increased mortality in the RETTS-A triage scale

Background

Triage is widely used in the emergency department (ED) in order to identify the patient’s level of urgency and often based on the patient’s chief complaint and vital signs. Age has been shown to be independently associated with short term mortality following an ED visit. However, the most commonly used ED triage tools do not include age as an independent core variable. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between age and 7- and 30-day mortality across the triage priority level groups according to Rapid Emergency Triage and Treatment System – Adult (RETTS-A), the most widely used triage tool in Sweden.

Methods

In this cohort, we included all adult patients visiting the ED at the Karolinska University Hospital, Sweden, from 1/1/2010 to 1/1/2015, n = 639,387. All patients were triaged according to the RETTS-A and subsequently separated into three age strata: 18–59, 60–79 and ≥ 80 years. Descriptive analyses and logistic regression was used. The primary outcome measures were 7- and 30-day mortality.

Results

We observed that age was associated with both 7 and 30-day mortality in each triage priority level group. Mortality was higher in older patients across all triage priority levels but the association with age was stronger in the lowest triage group (p-value for interaction = < 0.001). Comparing patients ≥80 years with patients 18–59 years, older patients had a 16 and 7 fold higher risk for 7 day mortality in the lowest and highest triage priority groups, respectively. The corresponding numbers for 30-d mortality were a 21- and 8-foldincreased risk, respectively.

Conclusion

Compared to younger patients, patients above 60 years have an increased short term mortality across the RETTS-A triage priority level groups and this was most pronounced in the lowest triage level. The reason for our findings are unclear and data suggest a validation of RETTS-A in aged patients.

Impact of frailty and anticoagulation status on readmission and mortality rates following falls in patients over 80

Falls are the leading cause of trauma-related mortality in geriatric patients. We hypothesized that frailty and anticoagulation status are risk factors for readmission and mortality following falls in patients >80 years. A retrospective review was performed on patients over 80 years old who presented to our level 1 trauma center for a fall and underwent a computed tomography of the head between January 2014 and January 2016. Frailty was assessed via the Rockwood Frailty Score. Clinical outcomes were death, readmission, recurrent falls, and delayed intracranial hemorrhage. Of 803 fall-related encounters, 173 patients over 80 years old were identified for inclusion. The 30-day readmission rate was 17.5% and was associated with an increased 6-month mortality (P = 0.01). One-year and 2-year mortality rates were 28% and 47%, respectively. Frailty was the strongest predictor of 6-month and overall mortality (P < 0.01). Anticoagulation status did not significantly influence these outcomes. The recurrent fall rate was 21%, and delayed intracranial hemorrhage did not occur in this study. Mortality of octogenarians after a fall is most influenced by patient frailty. Acknowledgment of frailty, risk of recurrent falls, and increased mortality should direct goals of care for geriatric trauma patients.

Age-Related Characteristics and Outcomes for Patients With Severe Trauma: Analysis of Japan's Nationwide Trauma Registry

STUDY OBJECTIVE

Although geriatric trauma patients are becoming more common, few large-scale analyses have comprehensively evaluated geriatric-specific characteristics in trauma. This study aims to clarify the age-specific characteristics, outcomes, and predictive accuracy of current trauma scoring systems among geriatric trauma patients.

METHODS

Patients with severe trauma, with an Abbreviated Injury Scale score greater than or equal to 3, and registered in the Japan Trauma Data Bank during 2004 to 2015 were retrospectively reviewed. Age-related differences were assessed for injury mechanism, injured region, anatomic and physiologic severity, and inhospital mortality. The mortality risk was evaluated with multivariate mixed-effect models adjusted for Injury Severity Score, Revised Trauma Score, year of injury, and treating facility. Age-related differences in the accuracy of the Injury Severity Score and Revised Trauma Score for predicting inhospital mortality were evaluated with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.

RESULTS

We identified 127,303 patients, including 67,316 geriatric patients (52.9%) who were aged 60 years or older. The percentage of geriatric patients increased from 31.9% to 59.7% during the study period. The most frequent injury mechanism was ground-level falls (55.2%) and the most frequently injured region was the pelvis and lower extremities (43.7%). Severity-adjusted mixed-effects models revealed a marked age-dependent increase in mortality. Although the Injury Severity Score had similar predictive accuracy among all generations, the accuracy of the Revised Trauma Score decreased with increasing age.

CONCLUSION

The characteristics of trauma patients varied widely according to age, and mortality risk increased steadily with increasing age, despite a decrease in anatomic injury severity. The Revised Trauma Score had decreasing predictive accuracy at older ages, suggesting that an alternative measure is needed.

The impact of inpatient palliative care on end-of-life care among older trauma patients who die after hospital discharge

BACKGROUND

Palliative care (PC) is associated with lower-intensity treatment and better outcomes at the end of life. Trauma surgeons play a critical role in end-of-life (EOL) care; however, the impact of PC on health care utilization at the end of life has yet to be characterized in older trauma patients.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study using 2006 to 2011 national Medicare claims included trauma patients 65 years or older who died within 180 days after discharge. The exposure of interest was inpatient PC during the trauma admission. A non-PC control group was developed by exact matching for age, comorbidity, admission year, injury severity, length of stay, and post-discharge survival. We used logistic regression to evaluate six EOL care outcomes: discharge to hospice, rehospitalization, skilled nursing facility or long-term acute care hospital admission, death in an institutional setting, and intensive care unit admission or receipt of life-sustaining treatments during a subsequent hospitalization.

RESULTS

Of 294,665 patients who died within 180 days after discharge, 2.1% received inpatient PC. Among 5,693 matched pairs, inpatient PC was associated with increased odds of discharge to hospice (odds ratio [OR], 3.80; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.54-4.09) and reduced odds of rehospitalization (OR, 0.17; 95% CI, 0.15-0.20), skilled nursing facility/long-term acute care hospital admission (OR, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.39-0.47), death in an institutional setting (OR, 0.34; 95% CI, 0.30-0.39), subsequent intensive care unit admission (OR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.36-0.72), or receiving life-sustaining treatments (OR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.39-0.80).

CONCLUSION

Inpatient PC is associated with lower-intensity and less burdensome EOL care in the geriatric trauma population. Nonetheless, it remains underused among those who die within 6 months after discharge.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Therapeutic/Care management, level III.

Significance of Blood Transfusion Units in Determining the Probability of Mortality among Elderly Trauma Patients Based on the Geriatric Trauma Outcome Scoring System: A Cross-Sectional Analysis Based on Trauma Registered Data

Background: For elderly trauma patients, a prognostic tool called the Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score (GTOS), where GTOS = (age) + (ISS × 2.5) + (22 if any packed red blood cells (pRBCs) were transfused within 24 h after admission), was developed for predicting mortality. In such calculation, a score of 22 was added in the calculation of GTOS regardless of the transfused units of blood. This study aimed to assess the effect of transfused blood units on the mortality outcomes of the elderly trauma patients who received blood transfusion (BT). Methods: Detailed data of 687 elderly trauma patients aged ≥65 years who were transfused with pRBCs within 24 h after admission into a level I trauma center between 1 January 2009 and 31 December 2016 were retrieved from the Trauma Registry System database. Based on the units of pRBCs transfused, the study population was divided into two groups to compare the mortality outcomes between these groups. Adjusted odds ratios (AORs) with its 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for mortality were calculated by adjusting sex, pre-existing comorbidities, and GTOS. Results: When the cut-off value of BT was set as 3 U of pRBCs, patients who received BT ≥ 3 U had higher odds of mortality than those who received BT < 3 U (OR, 3.0; 95% CI, 1.94–4.56; p < 0.001). Patients who received more units of pRBCs still showed higher odds of mortality than their counterparts. After adjusting for sex, pre-existing comorbidities, and GTOS, comparison revealed that the patients who received BT of 3 U to 6 U had a 1.7-fold adjusted odds of mortality than their counterparts. The patients who received BT ≥ 8 U and 10 U had a 2.1-fold (AOR, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.09–3.96; p < 0.001) and 4.4-fold (AOR, 4.4; 95% CI, 2.04–9.48; p < 0.001) adjusted odds of mortality than those who received BT < 8 U and <10 U, respectively. Conclusions: This study revealed that the units of BT did matter in determining the probability of mortality. For those who received more units of blood, the mortality may be underestimated according to the GTOS.

Frailty and Prognostication in Geriatric Surgery and Trauma

Frailty is a predominant predictor of poor outcomes in older populations. This article presents a review of the concept of frailty and its role for prognostication among geriatric trauma and surgery patients. We discuss models of frailty defined in the scientific literature, emphasizing that frailty is a process of biologic aging. We emphasize the importance of screening, assessment, and inclusion of frailty indices for the development and use of prognostication instruments/tools in the population of interest. Finally, we discuss best practices for the delivery of prognostic information in acute care settings and specific recommendations for trauma and surgical care settings.

Trauma care construction under the guidance of county-level trauma centers

Severe trauma has the characteristics of complicated condition, multiple organs involved, limited auxiliary examinations, and difficulty in treatment. Most of the trauma patients were sent to primary hospitals to receive treatments. But the traditional mode of separate discipline management can easily lead to delayed treatment, missed or wrong diagnosis and high disability, which causes a high mortality in severe trauma patients. Therefore, if the primary hospitals, especially county-level hospitals (usually the top general hospital within the administrative region of a county), can establish a scientific and comprehensive trauma care system, the success rate of trauma rescue in this region can be greatly improved. On March 1st, 2013, Tiantai People's Hospital of Zhejiang Province, China set up a trauma care center, which integrated the pre-hospital and in-hospital trauma treatment procedures, and has achieved good economic and social benefits. Till March 1st, 2017, 1265 severe trauma patients (injury severity score >16) have been treated in this trauma center. The rescue success rate reached 95% and the delayed and/or missed diagnosis rate was less than 5%. Totally 86 severe cases of pelvic fractures with unstable hemodynamics were treated, and the success rate was 92%. The in-hospital emergency rescue response time is less than 3 min, and the time from definite diagnosis to surgery is within 35 min.

Palliative care in the trauma ICU

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The benefits of palliative care for critically ill patients are well recognized, yet acceptance into surgical culture is lagging. With the increasing proportion of geriatric trauma patients, integration of palliative medicine within daily intensive care services to facilitate goal-concordant care is imperative.

RECENT FINDINGS

Misconceptions of palliative medicine as it applies to trauma patients linger among trauma surgeons and many continue to practice without routine consultation of a palliative care service. Aggressive end-of-life care does not correlate with an improved family perception of medical care received near death. Additionally, elderly patients near the end of life often prefer palliative treatments over life-extending therapy, and their treatment preferences are often not achieved. A new geriatric-specific prognosis calculator estimates the risk of mortality after trauma, which is useful in starting goals of care discussions with older patients and their families.

SUMMARY

Shifting our quality focus from 30-day mortality rates to measurements of symptom control and achievement of patient treatment preferences will prioritize patient beneficence and autonomy. Ownership of surgical palliative care as a service provided by acute care surgeons will ensure that our patients with incurable injury and illness will receive optimal patient-centered care.

The Tragically Hip: Trauma in Elderly Patients

Old age is a risk factor for poor outcome in trauma patients, as a result of undertriage and the presence of occult life-threatening injuries. The mechanisms of injury for geriatric trauma differ from those in younger patients, with a much higher incidence of low-impact trauma, especially falls from a low height. Frailty is a risk factor for severe injury after minor trauma, and caring for these patients require a multidisciplinary team with both trauma and geriatric expertise. With early recognition and aggressive management, severe injuries can still be associated with good outcomes, even in very elderly patients.

Application of a Geriatric Injury Protocol Demonstrates High Survival Rates for Geriatric Trauma Patients with High Injury Acuity

Geriatric trauma has historically been associated with poor outcomes, particularly in the setting of severe polytrauma. Although geriatric trauma protocols are common, there are limited data on their impact in patients with high injury severity. In this study, we sought to investigate the impact of a geriatric injury protocol on outcomes in patients with severe trauma acuity. Ninety-eight geriatric patients (age ≥65) admitted to our trauma center with injury severity scores (ISS) ≥15 comprised the study cohort. The mean age was 75 ± 7.7 yrs. The mean ISS was 25 ± 9.2, and the mean geriatric trauma outcome score was 150 ± 3. Mortality was 17 per cent and 70 per cent were due to central nervous system injury. When patients with nonsurvivable injuries or advanced directives resulting in early care withdrawal were excluded, the mortality was 6 per cent. Extremes of age did not impact mortality [(>80 years, 21%) vs (65–79, 16%, P = 0.5)]. Most patients (53%) were discharged home. The application of our geriatric trauma protocol led to favorable results despite high injury acuity. These data suggest that even at the extremes of age, a large percentage of patients can be expected to survive. A prospective validation of these findings is warranted.

A comparison of prognosis calculators for geriatric trauma: A Prognostic Assessment of Life and Limitations After Trauma in the Elderly consortium study

BACKGROUND

The nine-center Prognostic Assessment of Life and Limitations After Trauma in the Elderly consortium has validated the Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score (GTOS) as a prognosis calculator for injured elders. We compared GTOS' performance to that of the Trauma Injury Severity Score (TRISS) in a multicenter sample.

METHODS

Three Prognostic Assessment of Life and Limitations After Trauma in the Elderly centers not submitting subjects to the GTOS validation study identified subjects aged 65 years to 102 years admitted from 2000 to 2013. GTOS was specified using the formula [GTOS = age + (Injury Severity Score [ISS] × 2.5) + 22 (if transfused packed red cells (PRC) at 24 hours)]. TRISS uses the Revised Trauma Score (RTS), dichotomizes age (<55 years = 0 and ≥55 years = 1), and was specified using the updated 1995 beta coefficients. TRISS Penetrating was specified as [TRISSP = -2.5355 + (0.9934 × RTS) + (-0.0651 × ISS) + (-1.1360 × Age)]. TRISS Blunt was specified as [TRISSB = -0.4499 + (0.8085 × RTS Total) + (-0.0835 × ISS) + (-1.7430 × Age)]. Each then became the sole predictor in a separate logistic regression model to estimate probability of mortality. Model performances were evaluated using misclassification rate, Brier score, and area under the curve.

RESULTS

Demographics (mean + SD) of subjects with complete data (N = 10,894) were age, 78.3 years ± 8.1 years; ISS, 10.9 ± 8.4; RTS = 7.5 ± 1.1; mortality = 6.9%; blunt mechanism = 98.6%; 3.1 % of subjects received PRCs. The penetrating trauma subsample (n = 150) had a higher mortality rate of 20.0%. The misclassification rates for the models were GTOS, 0.065; TRISSB, 0.051; and TRISSP, 0.120. Brier scores were GTOS, 0.052; TRISSB, 0.041; and TRISSP, 0.084. The area under the curves were GTOS, 0.844; TRISSB, 0.889; and TRISSP, 0.897.

CONCLUSION

GTOS and TRISS function similarly and accurately in predicting probability of death for injured elders. GTOS has the advantages of a single formula, fewer variables, and no reliance on data collected in the emergency room or by other observers.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prognostic, level II.

Validation of a Geriatric Trauma Prognosis Calculator: A P.A.L.Li.A.T.E. Consortium Study

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

The P.A.L.Li.A.T.E. (prognostic assessment of life and limitations after trauma in the elderly) consortium has previously created a prognosis calculator for mortality after geriatric injury based on age, injury severity, and transfusion requirement called the geriatric trauma outcome score (GTOS). Here, we sought to create and validate a prognosis calculator called the geriatric trauma outcome score ii (GTOS II) estimating probability of unfavorable discharge.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort.

SETTING

Four geographically diverse Level 1 trauma centers.

PARTICIPANTS

Trauma admissions aged 65 to 102 years surviving to discharge from 2000 to 2013.

INTERVENTION

None.

MEASUREMENTS

Age, injury severity score (ISS), transfusion at 24 hours post-admission, discharge dichotomized as favorable (home/rehabilitation) or unfavorable (skilled nursing/long term acute care/hospice). Training and testing samples were created using the holdout method. A multiple logistic mixed model (GTOS II) was created to estimate the odds of unfavorable disposition then re-specified using the GTOS II as the sole predictor in a logistic mixed model using the testing sample.

RESULTS

The final dataset was 16,114 subjects (unfavorable discharge status = 15.4%). Training (n = 8,057) and testing (n = 8,057) samples had similar demographics. The formula based on the training sample was (GTOS II = Age + [0.71 × ISS] + 8.79 [if transfused by 24 hours]). Misclassification rate and AUC were 15.63% and 0.67 for the training sample, respectively, and 15.85% and 0.67 for the testing sample.

CONCLUSION

GTOS II estimates the probability of unfavorable discharge in injured elders with moderate accuracy. With the GTOS mortality calculator, it can help in goal setting conversations after geriatric injury.

Improving geriatric trauma outcomes: A small step toward a big problem

BACKGROUND

Because of the unique physiology and comorbidities of injured geriatric patients, specific interventions are needed to improve outcomes. The purpose of this study was to assess the effect of a change in triage criteria for injured geriatric patients evaluated at an American College of Surgeons Level I trauma center.

METHODS

As of October 1, 2013, all injured patients 70 years or older were mandated to have the highest-level trauma activation upon emergency department (ED) arrival regardless of physiology or mechanism of injury. Patients admitted before that date were designated as PRE; those admitted after were designated as POST. The study period was from October 1, 2011, through April 30, 2015. Data collected included demographics, mechanism of injury, hypotension on admission, comorbidities, Injury Severity Score (ISS), ED length of stay (LOS), complications, and mortality. Bivariate and multivariable analyses were used to compare outcomes between the study groups (p < 0.05 was considered significant). χ or Fisher's exact test was used as appropriate for bivariate analyses of categorical variables; patients' ages were compared using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test.

RESULTS

A total of 2,269 patients (mean, 80.63 years; mean ISS, 12.2; PRE, 1,271; POST, 933) were included in the study. On multivariable analysis, increasing age, higher ISS, and hypotension were associated with higher mortality. POST patients were more likely to have an ED LOS of 2 hours or shorter (odds ratio, 1.614; 95% confidence interval, 1.088-2.394) after controlling for hypotension, ISS, and comorbidities. POST mortality significantly decreased (odds ratio, 0.689; 95% confidence interval, 0.484-0.979).

CONCLUSION

Based on age alone, the focused intervention of a higher level of trauma activation decreased ED LOS and mortality in injured geriatric patients.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Therapeutic/care management study, level IV.

Creation of a decision aid for goal setting after geriatric burns: a study from the prognostic assessment of life and limitations after trauma in the elderly [PALLIATE] consortium

OBJECTIVES

We hypothesized that a decision-support aid to predict index admission mortality and discharge disposition for geriatric burns could be constructed using the well-accepted Baux score (age +total body surface area burned) in a geriatric-specific cohort.

METHODS

National Burn Repository version 8.0 (2002-2011) was queried for all subjects aged 65 years or older. Baux scores were calculated and patients grouped into deciles. Three discharge outcomes (death,home, discharge to nonhome setting) were measured per decile. A receiver operating characteristic analysis was used to determine optimal Baux score cutpoints based on the Youden Index. The odds of mortality at various Baux score cutoffs were estimated using logistic regression.

RESULTS

The sample was composed of 8,001 subjects. Withdrawal of care was documented in 264 deaths; median time to withdrawal was three days. As Baux score increased, three peaks in disposition were seen. Less than 50% of patients with a Baux score of 80 or greater were discharged home. Patients with a moderate Baux score (80-130) had an increased likelihood of discharge to a nonhome setting. Baux scores of 130 or greater were nearly uniformly fatal (mortality, 94-100%). Baux score of 86.15 or less was predictive of discharge home (area under the curve, 0.698; sensitivity, 75.28%; specificity, 54.64%), and a score greater than 93.3 was predictive of mortality (area under the curve, 0.779; sensitivity, 57.46%; specificity, 87.08%).

CONCLUSION

For geriatric patients whose Baux scores exceed 86, return-to-home rates drop drastically; mortality increases at a score greater than 93, and mortality is nearly universal at a score ≥130 or greater. We are piloting a display of these findings as a decision-making aid when setting goals of care with stakeholders after geriatric burns.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Epidemiologic/prognostic study, level III; therapeutic/care management, level IV.

Severe trauma in the geriatric population

Geriatric trauma constitutes an increasingly recognized problem. Aging results in a progressive decline in cellular function which leads to a loose of their capacity to respond to injury. Some medications commonly used in this population can mask or blunt the response to injury. Falls constitute the most common cause of trauma and the leading cause of trauma-related deaths in this population. Falls are complicated by the widespread use of antiplatelets and anticoagulants, especially in patients with brain injury. Under-triage is common in this population. Evaluation of frailty could be helpful to solve this issue. Appropriate triaging and early aggressive management with correction of coagulopathy can improve outcome. Limitation of care and palliative measures must be considered in cases with a clear likelihood of poor prognosis.

Geriatric Trauma

Within the next 15 years, 1 in 5 Americans will be over age 65. $34 billion will be spent yearly on trauma care of this age group. This section covers situations in trauma unique to the geriatric population, who are often under-triaged and have significant injuries underestimated. Topics covered include age-related pathophysiological changes, underlying existing medical conditions and certain daily medications that increase the risk of serious injury in elderly trauma patients. Diagnostic evaluation of this group requires liberal testing, imaging, and a multidisciplinary team approach. Topics germane to geriatric trauma including hypothermia, elder abuse, and depression and suicide are also covered.

Predicting In-Hospital and 1-Year Mortality in Geriatric Trauma Patients Using Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score

BACKGROUND

The Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score (GTOS; [age] + [2.5 × Injury Severity Score] + 22 [if packed RBC transfused within ≤24 hours of admission]), was developed and validated as a prognostic indicator for in-hospital mortality in elderly trauma patients. However, GTOS neither provides information about post-discharge outcomes nor discriminates between patients dying with and without care restrictions. Isolating the latter, GTOS prediction performance was examined during admission and 1-year post discharge in a mature European trauma registry.

STUDY DESIGN

All trauma admissions 65 years of age and older in a university hospital during 2007 to 2011 were considered. Data on age, Injury Severity Score, packed RBC transfusion within ≤24 hours, therapy restrictions, discharge disposition, and mortality were collected. In-hospital deaths with therapy restrictions and patients discharged to hospice were excluded. The GTOS was the sole predictor in a logistic regression model estimating mortality probabilities. Performance of the model was assessed by misclassification rate, Brier score, Tjur R², and area under the curve.

RESULTS

The study population was 1,080 patients with a median age of 75 years, mean Injury Severity Score of 10, and packed RBCs transfused in 8.2%. In-hospital mortality was 14.9% and 7.7% after exclusions. Misclassification rate fell from 14% to 6.5% and Brier score from 0.09 to 0.05, and area under the curve increased from 0.87 to 0.88. Equivalent values for the original GTOS sample were 9.8%, 0.07, and 0.82, respectively. One-year mortality follow-up showed a misclassification rate of 17.6% and Brier score of 0.13.

CONCLUSIONS

Excluding patients with care restrictions and discharged to hospice improved GTOS performance for in-hospital mortality prediction. The GTOS is not adept at predicting 1-year mortality.

Predictors of Mortality in Trauma Patients Aged 80 years or Older

The population of the United States is predicted to age dramatically over the next few decades; as such older patients will comprise an increasing proportion of the injured populations. Due to multiple comorbidities and frailty, the old and very old are at greater risk for mortality than younger patients. To identify predictors of inhospital mortality in these patients, we performed a retrospective cohort study at our Level 1 trauma center. Between April 2009 and October 2014, we identified 193 trauma patients aged 80 years and older admitted to the intensive care unit. The mean age was 86 years old (4.9) and a majority of patients were white (57%) and male (54%). Univariate analysis found Injury Severity Score ( P < 0.01), initial Glasgow Coma Scale ( P < 0.01), admission pH ( P = <0.01), admission lactate ( P < 0.01), the need for mechanical ventilation ( P < 0.01), and Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score ( P < 0.01) to be predictors of mortality. Multivariate analysis identified length of mechanical ventilation [odds ratio (OR) = 0.73, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.60–0.90, P < 0.01], admission lactate (OR = 1.74, 95% CI = 1.21–2.51, P < 0.01), and the need for mechanical ventilation (OR = 18.2, 95% CI = 3.33–99.8, P < 0.01) as independent predictors of mortality. These predictors can help guide clinical decisions and should prompt early discussion of goals of care. The association between mechanical ventilation and mortality is confounded by withdrawal of care.

Characterizing End-of-Life Care after Geriatric Burns at a Verified Level I Burn Center

BACKGROUND

End-of-life (EoL) care after geriatric burns (geri-burns) is understudied.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the practices of burn surgeons for initiating EoL discussions and the impact of decisions made on the courses of geri-burn patients who died after injury.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study examined all subjects ≥65 years who died on our Level I burn service from April 1, 2009, to December 31, 2014. Measurements obtained were timing of first EoL discussion (EARLY <24 hours post-admission; LATE ≥24 hours post-admission), decisions made, age, total body surface area burned, and calculated probability of death at admission.

RESULTS

The cohort consisted of 57 subjects, of whom 54 had at least one documented EoL care discussion between a burn physician and the patient/surrogate. No differences were seen between groups for the likelihood of an immediate decision for comfort care after the first discussion (p = 0.73) or the mean number of total discussions (p = 0.07). EARLY group subjects (n = 38) had significantly greater magnitudes of injury (p = 0.002), calculated probabilities of death at admission (p ≤ 0.001), shorter times to death (p ≤ 0.001), and fewer trips to the operating theater for burn excision and skin grafting (p ≤ 0.001) than LATE subjects (n = 16). LATE subjects' first discussion occurred at a mean of 9.3 ± 10.0 days.

DISCUSSION

The vast majority of geri-burn deaths on our burn service occur after a discussion about EoL care. The timing of these discussions is driven by magnitude of injury, and it does not lead to higher proportions of an immediate decision for comfort care. The presence and timing of EoL discussions bears further study as a quality metric for geri-burn EoL care.

Geriatric trauma

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The landscape of trauma is changing due to an aging population. Geriatric patients represent an increasing number and proportion of trauma admissions and deaths. This review explores recent literature on geriatric trauma, including triage criteria, assessment of frailty, fall-related injury, treatment of head injury complicated by coagulopathy, goals of care, and the need for ongoing education of all surgeons in the care of the elderly.

RECENT FINDINGS

Early identification of high-risk geriatric patients is imperative to initiate early resuscitative efforts. Geriatric patients are typically undertriaged because of their baseline frailty being underappreciated; however, centers that see more geriatric patients do better. Rapid reversal of anticoagulation is important in preventing progression of brain injury. Anticipation of difficult disposition necessitates early involvement of physical therapy for rehabilitation and case management for appropriate placement.

SUMMARY

Optimal care of geriatric trauma patients will be based on the well established tenets of trauma resuscitation and injury repair, but with distinct elements that address the physiological and anatomical challenges presented by geriatric patients.