Universality of weak selection

Analytical description for the critical fixations of evolutionary coordination games on finite complex structured populations

Evolutionary game theory is crucial to capturing the characteristic interaction patterns among selfish individuals. In a population of coordination games of two strategies, one of the central problems is to determine the fixation probability that the system reaches a state of networkwide of only one strategy, and the corresponding expectation times. The deterministic replicator equations predict the critical value of initial density of one strategy, which separates the two absorbing states of the system. However, numerical estimations of this separatrix show large deviations from the theory in finite populations. Here we provide a stochastic treatment of this dynamic process on complex networks of finite sizes as Markov processes, showing the evolutionary time explicitly. We describe analytically the effects of network structures on the intermediate fixations as observed in numerical simulations. Our theoretical predictions are validated by various simulations on both random and scale free networks. Therefore, our stochastic framework can be helpful in dealing with other networked game dynamics.

Aspiration dynamics in structured population acts as if in a well-mixed one

Understanding the evolution of human interactive behaviors is important. Recent experimental results suggest that human cooperation in spatial structured population is not enhanced as predicted in previous works, when payoff-dependent imitation updating rules are used. This constraint opens up an avenue to shed light on how humans update their strategies in real life. Studies via simulations show that, instead of comparison rules, self-evaluation driven updating rules may explain why spatial structure does not alter the evolutionary outcome. Though inspiring, there is a lack of theoretical result to show the existence of such evolutionary updating rule. Here we study the aspiration dynamics, and show that it does not alter the evolutionary outcome in various population structures. Under weak selection, by analytical approximation, we find that the favored strategy in regular graphs is invariant. Further, we show that this is because the criterion under which a strategy is favored is the same as that of a well-mixed population. By simulation, we show that this holds for random networks. Although how humans update their strategies is an open question to be studied, our results provide a theoretical foundation of the updating rules that may capture the real human updating rules.

Environmental evolutionary graph theory

Understanding the influence of an environment on the evolution of its resident population is a major challenge in evolutionary biology. Great progress has been made in homogeneous population structures while heterogeneous structures have received relatively less attention. Here we present a structured population model where different individuals are best suited to different regions of their environment. The underlying structure is a graph: individuals occupy vertices, which are connected by edges. If an individual is suited for their vertex, they receive an increase in fecundity. This framework allows attention to be restricted to the spatial arrangement of suitable habitat. We prove some basic properties of this model and find some counter-intuitive results. Notably, (1) the arrangement of suitable sites is as important as their proportion, and (2) decreasing the proportion of suitable sites may result in a decrease in the fixation time of an allele.

Cooperation with both synergistic and local interactions can be worse than each alone

Cooperation is ubiquitous ranging from multicellular organisms to human societies. Population structures indicating individuals' limited interaction ranges are crucial to understand this issue. But it remains unknown to what extend multiple interactions involving nonlinearity in payoff influence the cooperation in structured populations. Here we show a rule, which determines the emergence and stabilization of cooperation, under multiple discounted, linear, and synergistic interactions. The rule is validated by simulations in homogenous and heterogenous structured populations. We find that the more neighbours there are the harder for cooperation to evolve for multiple interactions with linearity and discounting. For synergistic scenario, however, distinct from its pairwise counterpart, moderate number of neighbours can be the worst, indicating that synergistic interactions work with strangers but not with neighbours. Our results suggest that the combination of different factors which promotes cooperation alone can be worse than that with every single factor.

Evolutionary origin of asymptotically stable consensus

Consensus is widely observed in nature as well as in society. Up to now, many works have focused on what kind of (and how) isolated single structures lead to consensus, while the dynamics of consensus in interdependent populations remains unclear, although interactive structures are everywhere. For such consensus in interdependent populations, we refer that the fraction of population adopting a specified strategy is the same across different interactive structures. A two-strategy game as a conflict is adopted to explore how natural selection affects the consensus in such interdependent populations. It is shown that when selection is absent, all the consensus states are stable, but none are evolutionarily stable. In other words, the final consensus state can go back and forth from one to another. When selection is present, there is only a small number of stable consensus state which are evolutionarily stable. Our study highlights the importance of evolution on stabilizing consensus in interdependent populations.

Evolutionary dynamics in finite populations with zealots

We investigate evolutionary dynamics of two-strategy matrix games with zealots in finite populations. Zealots are assumed to take either strategy regardless of the fitness. When the strategy selected by the zealots is the same, the fixation of the strategy selected by the zealots is a trivial outcome. We study fixation time in this scenario. We show that the fixation time is divided into three main regimes, in one of which the fixation time is short, and in the other two the fixation time is exponentially long in terms of the population size. Different from the case without zealots, there is a threshold selection intensity below which the fixation is fast for an arbitrary payoff matrix. We illustrate our results with examples of various social dilemma games.

Aspiration dynamics of multi-player games in finite populations

On studying strategy update rules in the framework of evolutionary game theory, one can differentiate between imitation processes and aspiration-driven dynamics. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer. In the latter case, individuals adjust their strategies based on a comparison of their pay-offs from the evolutionary game to a value they aspire, called the level of aspiration. Unlike imitation processes of pairwise comparison, aspiration-driven updates do not require additional information about the strategic environment and can thus be interpreted as being more spontaneous. Recent work has mainly focused on understanding how aspiration dynamics alter the evolutionary outcome in structured populations. However, the baseline case for understanding strategy selection is the well-mixed population case, which is still lacking sufficient understanding. We explore how aspiration-driven strategy-update dynamics under imperfect rationality influence the average abundance of a strategy in multi-player evolutionary games with two strategies. We analytically derive a condition under which a strategy is more abundant than the other in the weak selection limiting case. This approach has a long-standing history in evolutionary games and is mostly applied for its mathematical approachability. Hence, we also explore strong selection numerically, which shows that our weak selection condition is a robust predictor of the average abundance of a strategy. The condition turns out to differ from that of a wide class of imitation dynamics, as long as the game is not dyadic. Therefore, a strategy favoured under imitation dynamics can be disfavoured under aspiration dynamics. This does not require any population structure, and thus highlights the intrinsic difference between imitation and aspiration dynamics.

Extrapolating weak selection in evolutionary games

In evolutionary games, reproductive success is determined by payoffs. Weak selection means that even large differences in game outcomes translate into small fitness differences. Many results have been derived using weak selection approximations, in which perturbation analysis facilitates the derivation of analytical results. Here, we ask whether results derived under weak selection are also qualitatively valid for intermediate and strong selection. By “qualitatively valid” we mean that the ranking of strategies induced by an evolutionary process does not change when the intensity of selection increases. For two-strategy games, we show that the ranking obtained under weak selection cannot be carried over to higher selection intensity if the number of players exceeds two. For games with three (or more) strategies, previous examples for multiplayer games have shown that the ranking of strategies can change with the intensity of selection. In particular, rank changes imply that the most abundant strategy at one intensity of selection can become the least abundant for another. We show that this applies already to pairwise interactions for a broad class of evolutionary processes. Even when both weak and strong selection limits lead to consistent predictions, rank changes can occur for intermediate intensities of selection. To analyze how common such games are, we show numerically that for randomly drawn two-player games with three or more strategies, rank changes frequently occur and their likelihood increases rapidly with the number of strategies . In particular, rank changes are almost certain for , which jeopardizes the predictive power of results derived for weak selection.

In evolutionary game dynamics in finite populations, selection intensity plays a key role in determining the impact of the game on reproductive success. Weak selection is often employed to obtain analytical results in evolutionary game theory. We investigate the validity of weak selection predictions for stronger intensities of selection. We prove that in general qualitative results obtained under weak selection fail to extend even to moderate selection strengths for games with either more than two strategies or more than two players. In particular, we find that even in pairwise interactions qualitative changes with changing selection intensity arise almost certainly in the case of a large number of strategies.

Topological bifurcations in a model society of reasonable contrarians

People are often divided into conformists and contrarians, the former tending to align to the majority opinion in their neighborhood and the latter tending to disagree with that majority. In practice, however, the contrarian tendency is rarely followed when there is an overwhelming majority with a given opinion, which denotes a social norm. Such reasonable contrarian behavior is often considered a mark of independent thought and can be a useful strategy in financial markets. We present the opinion dynamics of a society of reasonable contrarian agents. The model is a cellular automaton of Ising type, with antiferromagnetic pair interactions modeling contrarianism and plaquette terms modeling social norms. We introduce the entropy of the collective variable as a way of comparing deterministic (mean-field) and probabilistic (simulations) bifurcation diagrams. In the mean-field approximation the model exhibits bifurcations and a chaotic phase, interpreted as coherent oscillations of the whole society. However, in a one-dimensional spatial arrangement one observes incoherent oscillations and a constant average. In simulations on Watts-Strogatz networks with a small-world effect the mean-field behavior is recovered, with a bifurcation diagram that resembles the mean-field one but where the rewiring probability is used as the control parameter. Similar bifurcation diagrams are found for scale-free networks, and we are able to compute an effective connectivity for such networks.

Evolution of cooperation on spatially embedded networks

In this work we study the behavior of classical two-person, two-strategies evolutionary games on networks embedded in a Euclidean two-dimensional space with different kinds of degree distributions and topologies going from regular to random and to scale-free ones. Using several imitative microscopic dynamics, we study the evolution of global cooperation on the above network classes and find that specific topologies having a hierarchical structure and an inhomogeneous degree distribution, such as Apollonian and grid-based networks, are very conducive to cooperation. Spatial scale-free networks are still good for cooperation but to a lesser degree. Both classes of networks enhance average cooperation in all games with respect to standard random geometric graphs and regular grids by shifting the boundaries between cooperative and defective regions. These findings might be useful in the design of interaction structures that maintain cooperation when the agents are constrained to live in physical two-dimensional space.

Metastability and anomalous fixation in evolutionary games on scale-free networks

We study the influence of complex graphs on the metastability and fixation properties of a set of evolutionary processes. In the framework of evolutionary game theory, where the fitness and selection are frequency dependent and vary with the population composition, we analyze the dynamics of snowdrift games (characterized by a metastable coexistence state) on scale-free networks. Using an effective diffusion theory in the weak selection limit, we demonstrate how the scale-free structure affects the system's metastable state and leads to anomalous fixation. In particular, we analytically and numerically show that the probability and mean time of fixation are characterized by stretched-exponential behaviors with exponents depending on the network's degree distribution.

Corpus-based intention recognition in cooperation dilemmas

Intention recognition is ubiquitous in most social interactions among humans and other primates. Despite this, the role of intention recognition in the emergence of cooperative actions remains elusive. Resorting to the tools of evolutionary game theory, herein we describe a computational model showing how intention recognition coevolves with cooperation in populations of self-regarding individuals. By equipping some individuals with the capacity of assessing the intentions of others in the course of a prototypical dilemma of cooperation-the repeated prisoner's dilemma-we show how intention recognition is favored by natural selection, opening a window of opportunity for cooperation to thrive. We introduce a new strategy (IR) that is able to assign an intention to the actions of opponents, on the basis of an acquired corpus consisting of possible plans achieving that intention, as well as to then make decisions on the basis of such recognized intentions. The success of IR is grounded on the free exploitation of unconditional cooperators while remaining robust against unconditional defectors. In addition, we show how intention recognizers do indeed prevail against the best-known successful strategies of iterated dilemmas of cooperation, even in the presence of errors and reduction of fitness associated with a small cognitive cost for performing intention recognition.

Evolutionary shift dynamics on a cycle

We present a new model of evolutionary dynamics in one-dimensional space. Individuals are arranged on a cycle. When a new offspring is born, another individual dies and the rest shift around the cycle to make room. This rule, which is inspired by spatial evolution in somatic tissue and microbial colonies, has the remarkable property that, in the limit of large population size, evolution acts to maximize the payoff of the whole population. Therefore, social dilemmas, in which some individuals benefit at the expense of others, are resolved. We demonstrate this principle for both discrete and continuous games. We also discuss extensions of our model to other one-dimensional spatial configurations. We conclude that shift dynamics in one dimension is an unusually strong promoter of cooperative behavior.

Evolution of global cooperation driven by risks

Globalization facilitates our communication with each other, while it magnifies problems such as overharvesting of natural resources and human-induced climate change. Thus people all over the world are involved in a global social dilemma which calls for worldwide cooperation to reduce the risks of these extreme events and disasters. A collective target (threshold) is required to prevent such events. Everyone may lose their wealth once their total individual contributions fail to reach the threshold. To this end, we establish a model of threshold public goods games in a group-structured population and investigate its evolutionary process. We study multilevel public goods games with defectors, local cooperators, and global cooperators and are primarily concerned with how the global cooperative behavior evolves. We find that, compared with the standard public goods games, the strategy of global cooperation accounts for a bigger proportion in the stationary distribution of threshold public goods games. On the other hand, the fixation time of the global cooperation strategy is greatly shortened with increase of the probability of disaster striking. Therefore, global risks induced by the threshold can effectively promote global cooperation in environmental investment and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.

How mutation affects evolutionary games on graphs

Evolutionary dynamics are affected by population structure, mutation rates and update rules. Spatial or network structure facilitates the clustering of strategies, which represents a mechanism for the evolution of cooperation. Mutation dilutes this effect. Here we analyze how mutation influences evolutionary clustering on graphs. We introduce new mathematical methods to evolutionary game theory, specifically the analysis of coalescing random walks via generating functions. These techniques allow us to derive exact identity-by-descent (IBD) probabilities, which characterize spatial assortment on lattices and Cayley trees. From these IBD probabilities we obtain exact conditions for the evolution of cooperation and other game strategies, showing the dual effects of graph topology and mutation rate. High mutation rates diminish the clustering of cooperators, hindering their evolutionary success. Our model can represent either genetic evolution with mutation, or social imitation processes with random strategy exploration.

Stochastic differential equations for evolutionary dynamics with demographic noise and mutations

We present a general framework to describe the evolutionary dynamics of an arbitrary number of types in finite populations based on stochastic differential equations (SDEs). For large, but finite populations this allows us to include demographic noise without requiring explicit simulations. Instead, the population size only rescales the amplitude of the noise. Moreover, this framework admits the inclusion of mutations between different types, provided that mutation rates μ are not too small compared to the inverse population size 1/N. This ensures that all types are almost always represented in the population and that the occasional extinction of one type does not result in an extended absence of that type. For μN≪1 this limits the use of SDEs, but in this case there are well established alternative approximations based on time scale separation. We illustrate our approach by a rock-scissors-paper game with mutations, where we demonstrate excellent agreement with simulation based results for sufficiently large populations. In the absence of mutations the excellent agreement extends to small population sizes.

Cooperative behavior in evolutionary snowdrift games with the unconditional imitation rule on regular lattices

We study an evolutionary snowdrift game with the unconditional imitation updating rule on regular lattices. Detailed numerical simulations establish the structure of plateaus and discontinuous jumps of the equilibrium cooperation frequency f(c) as a function of the cost-to-benefit ratio r. By analyzing the stability of local configurations, it is found that the transitions occur at values of r at which there are changes in the ranking of the payoffs to the different local configurations of agents using different strategies. Nonmonotonic behavior of f(c)(r) at the intermediate range of r is analyzed in terms of the formation of blocks of agents using the cooperative strategy that are stabilized by agents inside the block due to the updating rule. For random initial condition with 50%-50% agents of different strategies randomly dispersed, cooperation persists in the whole range of r and the level of cooperation is higher than that in the well-mixed case in a wide range of r. These results are in sharp contrast to those based on the replicator updating rule. The sensitivity to initial states with different fractions of cooperative agents is also discussed. The results serve to illustrate that both the spatial structure and the updating rule are important in determining the level of cooperation in a competing population. When extreme initial states are used where there are very few agents of a strategy in a background of the opposite strategy, the result would depend on the stability of the clusters formed by the initially minority agents.

Multi-player games on the cycle

In multi-player games n individuals interact in any one encounter and derive a payoff from that interaction. We assume that individuals adopt one of two strategies, and we consider symmetric games, which means the payoff depends only on the number of players using either strategy, but not on any particular configuration of the encounter. On the cycle we assume that any string of n neighbouring players interacts. We study fixation probabilities of stochastic evolutionary dynamics. We derive analytical results on the cycle both for linear and exponential fitness for any intensity of selection, and compare those to results for the well-mixed population. As particular examples we study multi-player public goods games, stag hunt games and snowdrift games.

Inertia in strategy switching transforms the strategy evolution

A recent experimental study [Traulsen et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 107, 2962 (2010)] shows that human strategy updating involves both direct payoff comparison and the cost of switching strategy, which is equivalent to inertia. However, it remains largely unclear how such a predisposed inertia affects 2 × 2 games in a well-mixed population of finite size. To address this issue, the "inertia bonus" (strategy switching cost) is added to the learner payoff in the Fermi process. We find how inertia quantitatively shapes the stationary distribution and that stochastic stability under inertia exhibits three regimes, with each covering seven regions in the plane spanned by two inertia parameters. We also obtain the extended "1/3" rule with inertia and the speed criterion with inertia; these two findings hold for a population above two. We illustrate the above results in the framework of the Prisoner's Dilemma game. As inertia varies, two intriguing stationary distributions emerge: the probability of coexistence state is maximized, or those of two full states are simultaneously peaked. Our results may provide useful insights into how the inertia of changing status quo acts on the strategy evolution and, in particular, the evolution of cooperation.

Evolutionary dynamics on stochastic evolving networks for multiple-strategy games

Evolutionary game theory on dynamical networks has received much attention. Most of the work has been focused on 2×2 games such as prisoner's dilemma and snowdrift, with general n×n games seldom addressed. In particular, analytical methods are still lacking. Here we generalize the stochastic linking dynamics proposed by Wu, Zhou, Fu, Luo, Wang, and Traulsen [PLoS ONE 5, e11187 (2010)] to n×n games. We analytically obtain that the fast linking dynamics results in the replicator dynamics with a rescaled payoff matrix. In the rescaled matrix, intuitively, each entry is the product of the original entry and the average duration time of the corresponding link. This result is shown to be robust to a wide class of imitation processes. As applications, we show both analytically and numerically that the biodiversity, modeled as the stability of a zero-sum rock-paper-scissors game, cannot be altered by the fast linking dynamics. In addition, we show that the fast linking dynamics can stabilize tit-for-tat as an evolutionary stable strategy in the repeated prisoner's dilemma game provided the interaction between the identical strategies happens sufficiently often. Our method paves the way for an analytical study of the multiple-strategy coevolutionary dynamics.

Stability of strategies in payoff-driven evolutionary games on networks

We consider a network of coupled agents playing the Prisoner's Dilemma game, in which players are allowed to pick a strategy in the interval [0, 1], with 0 corresponding to defection, 1 to cooperation, and intermediate values representing mixed strategies in which each player may act as a cooperator or a defector over a large number of interactions with a certain probability. Our model is payoff-driven, i.e., we assume that the level of accumulated payoff at each node is a relevant parameter in the selection of strategies. Also, we consider that each player chooses his∕her strategy in a context of limited information. We present a deterministic nonlinear model for the evolution of strategies. We show that the final strategies depend on the network structure and on the choice of the parameters of the game. We find that polarized strategies (pure cooperator∕defector states) typically emerge when (i) the network connections are sparse, (ii) the network degree distribution is heterogeneous, (iii) the network is assortative, and surprisingly, (iv) the benefit of cooperation is high.

Fixation, transient landscape, and diffusion dilemma in stochastic evolutionary game dynamics

Agent-based stochastic models for finite populations have recently received much attention in the game theory of evolutionary dynamics. Both the ultimate fixation and the pre-fixation transient behavior are important to a full understanding of the dynamics. In this paper, we study the transient dynamics of the well-mixed Moran process through constructing a landscape function. It is shown that the landscape playing a central theoretical "device" that integrates several lines of inquiries: the stable behavior of the replicator dynamics, the long-time fixation, and continuous diffusion approximation associated with asymptotically large population. Several issues relating to the transient dynamics are discussed: (i) multiple time scales phenomenon associated with intra- and inter-attractoral dynamics; (ii) discontinuous transition in stochastically stationary process akin to Maxwell construction in equilibrium statistical physics; and (iii) the dilemma diffusion approximation facing as a continuous approximation of the discrete evolutionary dynamics. It is found that rare events with exponentially small probabilities, corresponding to the uphill movements and barrier crossing in the landscape with multiple wells that are made possible by strong nonlinear dynamics, plays an important role in understanding the origin of the complexity in evolutionary, nonlinear biological systems.

Imperfect vaccine aggravates the long-standing dilemma of voluntary vaccination

Achieving widespread population immunity by voluntary vaccination poses a major challenge for public health administration and practice. The situation is complicated even more by imperfect vaccines. How the vaccine efficacy affects individuals' vaccination behavior has yet to be fully answered. To address this issue, we combine a simple yet effective game theoretic model of vaccination behavior with an epidemiological process. Our analysis shows that, in a population of self-interested individuals, there exists an overshooting of vaccine uptake levels as the effectiveness of vaccination increases. Moreover, when the basic reproductive number, R0, exceeds a certain threshold, all individuals opt for vaccination for an intermediate region of vaccine efficacy. We further show that increasing effectiveness of vaccination always increases the number of effectively vaccinated individuals and therefore attenuates the epidemic strain. The results suggest that 'number is traded for efficiency': although increases in vaccination effectiveness lead to uptake drops due to free-riding effects, the impact of the epidemic can be better mitigated.

How small are small mutation rates?

We consider evolutionary game dynamics in a finite population of size N. When mutations are rare, the population is monomorphic most of the time. Occasionally a mutation arises. It can either reach fixation or go extinct. The evolutionary dynamics of the process under small mutation rates can be approximated by an embedded Markov chain on the pure states. Here we analyze how small the mutation rate should be to make the embedded Markov chain a good approximation by calculating the difference between the real stationary distribution and the approximated one. While for a coexistence game, where the best reply to any strategy is the opposite strategy, it is necessary that the mutation rate μ is less than N (-1/2)exp[-N] to ensure that the approximation is good, for all other games, it is sufficient if the mutation rate is smaller than (N ln N)(-1). Our results also hold for a wide class of imitation processes under arbitrary selection intensity.