Risk prediction for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing chemoembolization: development of a prediction model

Critical systematic review on hepatic resection and transarterial chemoembolization for hepatocellular carcinoma

Whether to submit to transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) or hepatic resection (HR) patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is still a debated issue. We conducted a systematic review to critically analyze what evidence supports the use of TACE, in a specific clinical condition that can define HCC as 'intermediate'. In addition, we analyzed literature regarding the comparison between TACE and HR. Direct comparisons, between HR and TACE, strongly support the adoption of surgery for patients with large or multinodular HCCs since, albeit 'nonideal' surgical candidates, these patients can still obtain a survival benefit. Multidisciplinary teams can mitigate the different decision-making approach of surgeons and hepatologists with the aim of obtaining the best quality of care.

IL-6 and IL-8 Serum Levels Predict Tumor Response and Overall Survival after TACE for Primary and Secondary Hepatic Malignancies

While surgical resection represents the standard potentially curative therapy for liver cancer, transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) has evolved as a standard therapy for intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) as well as liver metastases. However, it is still not fully understood which patients particularly benefit from TACE. Cytokines represent a broad category of signaling molecules that might reflect concomitant inflammation as an adverse prognostic factor. Here, we evaluated the role of interleukin (IL)-6, IL-8, and CC-chemokine ligand (CCL)22 as biomarkers in the context of TACE treatment. Cytokine serum levels were analyzed by multiplex immunoassay in 54 patients (HCC: n = 44, liver metastases: n = 10) undergoing TACE as well as 51 healthy controls. Patients with primary and secondary liver cancer showed significantly elevated levels of IL-6 and IL-8 but not CCL22 compared to healthy controls. Interestingly, low pre-interventional levels of IL-6 and IL-8 were predictors for an objective response after TACE in binary logistic regression. In contrast, patients with high pre-interventional IL-6 and IL-8 serum levels not only poorly responded to TACE but had a significantly impaired overall survival. Serum levels of IL-6 and IL-8 represent promising biomarkers for patients undergoing TACE and might help to pre-interventionally identify patients who particularly benefit from TACE regarding objective treatment response and overall survival.

Validation of the SNACOR clinical scoring system after transarterial chemoembolisation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Background

Transarterial chemoembolisation is the standard of care for intermediate stage (BCLC B) hepatocellular carcinoma, but it is challenging to decide when to repeat or stop treatment. Here we performed the first external validation of the SNACOR (tumour Size and Number, baseline Alpha-fetoprotein, Child-Pugh and Objective radiological Response) risk prediction model.

Methods

A total of 1030 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma underwent transarterial chemoembolisation at our tertiary referral centre from January 2000 to December 2016. We determined the following variables that were needed to calculate the SNACOR at baseline: tumour size and number, alpha-fetoprotein level, Child-Pugh class, and objective radiological response after the first transarterial chemoembolisation. Overall survival, time-dependent area under receiver-operating characteristic curves, Harrell’s C-index, and the integrated Brier score were calculated to assess predictive ability. Finally, multivariate analysis was performed to identify independent predictors of survival.

Results

The study included 268 patients. Low, intermediate, and high SNACOR scores predicted a median survival of 31.5, 19.9, and 9.2 months, respectively. The areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for overall survival were 0.641, 0.633, and 0.609 at 1, 3, and 6 years, respectively. Harrell’s C-index was 0.59, and the integrated Brier Score was 0.175. Independent predictors of survival included tumour size (P < 0.001), baseline alpha-fetoprotein level (P < 0.001) and Child-Pugh class (P < 0.004). Objective radiological response (P = 0.821) and tumour number (P = 0.127) were not additional independent predictors of survival.

Conclusions

The SNACOR risk prediction model can be used to identify patients with a dismal prognosis after the first transarterial chemoembolisation who are unlikely to benefit from further transarterial chemoembolisation. However, Harrell’s C-index showed only moderate performance. Accordingly, this risk prediction model can only serve as one of several components used to make the decision about whether to repeat treatment.

Novel Albumin-Bilirubin Grade-Based Risk Prediction Model for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Undergoing Chemoembolization

BACKGROUND

Recently, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade has been suggested as a better surrogate for hepatic functional reserve for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).

AIMS

We developed and validated a novel prediction model to predict outcome for HCC patients who underwent transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) as a first-line therapy.

METHODS

From a multivariate Cox regression model for overall survival, five objective variables (ALBI grade), the Barcelona clinic liver cancer (BCLC) stage, response after the first TACE session, Alpha-fetoprotein level, and sex were chosen and the ABRAS score was developed from the derivation cohort (n = 476) and scored to generate an 8-point risk prediction model. The model's prognostic performance was assessed in the randomly assigned internal validation set (n = 475) and external validation set (n = 243).

RESULTS

The ALBI grade was able to stratify patient survival within the same Child-Pugh class. The time-dependent area under receiver operating characteristics curves (AUROCs) for overall survival at 1 and 3 years were 0.78 and 0.73 in the training set, 0.78 and 0.71 in the internal validation set, and 0.70 and 0.65 in the external validation set, respectively. When stratified by BCLC stage, ABRAS score at a cutoff point of more than 3, 4, and 5 for BCLC stage 0/A, B, and C could identify subset of patients with dismal prognosis.

CONCLUSION

ABRAS score was useful in estimating prognosis for patients who underwent TACE as a first-line therapy. This score can be useful in planning and guiding treatment strategies with TACE, which warrants prospective validation.

Asia-Pacific clinical practice guidelines on the management of hepatocellular carcinoma: a 2017 update

There is great geographical variation in the distribution of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), with the majority of all cases worldwide found in the Asia-Pacific region, where HCC is one of the leading public health problems. Since the "Toward Revision of the Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL) HCC Guidelines" meeting held at the 25th annual conference of the APASL in Tokyo, the newest guidelines for the treatment of HCC published by the APASL has been discussed. This latest guidelines recommend evidence-based management of HCC and are considered suitable for universal use in the Asia-Pacific region, which has a diversity of medical environments.

Experience from a real-life cohort: outcome of 606 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma following transarterial chemoembolization

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most lethal cancers. Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) has been accepted as the standard care for intermediate stage disease.

METHODS

In this study, we characterized 606 with HCC patients from Hannover Medical School treated with TACE.

RESULTS

606 with HCC patients treated with TACE were identified between 2000 and 2015. Most patients (59.8%) were at intermediate stage. Following TACE, most patients subsequently received systemic therapy or best supportive care (BSC), whereas 227 (37.5%) patients were bridged to potentially curative local treatments. Depending on subsequent therapies, median post-TACE survival ranged from 7 to 162 months. Ascites, cholinesterase, c-reactive and alpha-feto protein and tumor size were identified as prognostic factors. These factors as well as the HAP, mHAP-II and STATE score also determined post-TACE survival independent of subsequent therapies. Hepatic function progressively deteriorated with repeated TACE sessions. Despite that, post-TACE survival was not shortened in frequently treated patients (≥5 times) as compared to patients treated 4 times or less (p = not significant [n.s.]). Patients treated ≥5 times with TACE received significantly more often systemic therapy following TACE (37.3%) as compared to patients with 3-4 (30.1%), 2 (27.4%) and 1 (21.8%) sessions (p < .05).

CONCLUSION

TACE is performed in a heterogeneous population as bridging therapy to other local treatments and palliative therapy. The long-term survival following TACE is determined by baseline tumor, patient-related factors and by subsequent therapies. Post-TACE survival is not shorter in patients with frequent treatments (≥5), and the rate of subsequent systemic treatments is higher compared to less frequently treated patients.

Target lesion response predicts survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma retreated with transarterial chemoembolization

BACKGROUND & AIMS

The discontinuation rules of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) for patients who were assessed as progressive disease (PD) but stage progression-free (SP-free: still belongs to Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer B) after TACE are unclear. We aimed to evaluate the impact of the PD-pattern on the survival of these patients retreated with TACE.

METHODS

In total, 115 consecutive patients who were assessed as PD but SP-free after TACE and then underwent at least one subsequent TACE session were included. Sixty patients were assessed as PD with target lesion progression (TP), and 55 patients were assessed as PD with target lesion non-progression (TNP). Survival and treatment-related adverse events were compared between the two groups. Additional external validation was performed using a data set (n = 103) from another institution.

RESULTS

Patients with TNP had significantly longer median post-progression survival (PPS) than those with TP (21.0 vs. 11.9 months, P = 0.004). After TACE retreatment, the incidence of liver dysfunction was significantly higher for patients with TP than for patients with TNP (45% vs. 20%, P = 0.031). In the multivariate analysis, the target lesion response was one of the most significant prognostic factors for PPS (HR = 2.01; 95% confidence interval: 1.23-3.27; P = 0.005). The findings were supported by an independent external cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared to patients with TNP, patients with TP might exhibit no improvement in survival and even present damaged liver function after retreatment with TACE. Target lesion response is useful as a clinical decision for repeated TACE in these patients.

Validation of Clinical Scoring Systems ART and ABCR after Transarterial Chemoembolization of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

PURPOSE

To perform an external validation of the Assessment for Retreatment with Transarterial Chemoembolization (ART) and α-fetoprotein (AFP), Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC), Child-Pugh, and response (ABCR) scores and to compare them in terms of prognostic power.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

From 2000 to 2015, 871 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma underwent transarterial chemoembolization at a tertiary referral hospital, and 176 met all inclusion and exclusion criteria for both scores and were analyzed. Nineteen percent (n = 34) had BCLC stage A disease and 81% had stage B disease. Thirty-nine patients (22%) presented with elevated AFP levels. Overall survival was calculated. Scores were validated and compared with a Harrell C-index, integrated Brier score (IBS), and prediction error curves.

RESULTS

Before the second chemoembolization procedure, 22 patients (12%) showed an increase of 1 point in Child-Pugh score and 51 patients (22%) had an increase of ≥ 2 points. Thirty-one patients (23%) showed a > 25% increase in aspartate aminotransferase level, and 114 (65%) showed a response to treatment. Consequently, 127 patients (72%) had a low ART score and 49 (28%) had a high ART score. One hundred fifty-eight patients (90%) had a low ABCR score, whereas 18 (10%) had a high ABCR score. Low and high ART score groups had median survival durations of 20.8 and 15.3 mo, respectively. Harrell C-indexes were 0.572 and 0.608, and IBSs were 0.135 and 0.128, for ART and ABCR, respectively. For both scores, an increase in Child-Pugh score ≥ 2 points and a radiologic response were significantly associated with survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Both scores were of limited predictive value, and neither was sufficient to support clear-cut clinical decisions. Further effort is necessary to determine criteria for making valid clinical predictions.

Refining prognosis after trans-arterial chemo-embolization for hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND & AIMS

To develop an individual prognostic calculator for patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing trans-arterial chemo-embolization (TACE).

METHODS

Data from two prospective databases, regarding 361 patients who received TACE as first-line therapy (2000-2012), were reviewed in order to refine available prognostic tools and to develop a continuous individual web-based prognostic calculator. Patients with neoplastic portal vein invasion were excluded from the analysis. The model was built following a bootstrap resampling procedure aimed at identifying prognostic predictors and by carrying out a 10-fold cross-validation for accuracy assessment by means of Harrell's c-statistic.

RESULTS

Number of tumours, serum albumin, serum total bilirubin, alpha-foetoprotein and maximum tumour size were selected as predictors of mortality following TACE with the bootstrap resampling technique. In the 10-fold cross-validation cohort, the model showed a Harrell's c-statistic of 0.649 (95% CI: 0.610-0.688), significantly higher than that of the Hepatoma Arterial-embolization Prognostic (HAP) score (0.589; 95% CI: 0.552-0.626; P = 0.001) and of the modified HAP-II score (0.611; 95% CI: 0.572-0.650; P = 0.005). Akaike's information criterion for the model was 2520; for the mHAP-II it was 2544 and for the HAP score it was 2554. A web-based calculator was developed for quick consultation at http://www.livercancer.eu/mhap3.html.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed individual prognostic model can provide an accurate prognostic prediction for each patient with unresectable HCC following treatment with TACE without class stratification. The availability of an online calculator can help physicians in daily clinical practice.