Defining a novel k-nearest neighbours approach to assess the applicability domain of a QSAR model for reliable predictions

A similarity-based QSAR model for predicting acute toxicity towards the fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas)

REACH regulation demands information about acute toxicity of chemicals towards fish and supports the use of QSAR models, provided compliance with OECD principles. Existing models present some drawbacks that may limit their regulatory application. In this study, a dataset of 908 chemicals was used to develop a QSAR model to predict the LC50 96 hours for the fathead minnow. Genetic algorithms combined with k nearest neighbour method were applied on the training set (726 chemicals) and resulted in a model based on six molecular descriptors. An automated assessment of the applicability domain (AD) was carried out by comparing the average distance of each molecule from the nearest neighbours with a fixed threshold. The model had good and balanced performance in internal and external validation (182 test molecules), at the expense of a percentage of molecules outside the AD. Principal Component Analysis showed apparent correlations between model descriptors and toxicity.

Validation and extension of a similarity-based approach for prediction of acute aquatic toxicity towards Daphnia magna

Quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models for predicting acute toxicity to Daphnia magna are often associated with poor performances, urging the need for improvement to meet REACH requirements. The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy, stability and reliability of a previously published QSAR model by means of further external validation and to optimize its performance by means of extension to new data as well as a consensus approach. The previously published model was validated with a large set of new molecules and then compared with ChemProp model, from which most of the validation data were taken. Results showed better performance of the proposed model in terms of accuracy and percentage of molecules outside the applicability domain. The model was re-calibrated on all the available data to confirm the efficacy of the similarity-based approach. The extended dataset was also used to develop a novel model based on the same similarity approach but using binary fingerprints to describe the chemical structures. The fingerprint-based model gave lower regression statistics, but also less unpredicted compounds. Eventually, consensus modelling was successfully used to enhance the accuracy of the predictions and to halve the percentage of molecules outside the applicability domain.

Industrial applications of in silico ADMET

Quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) modeling has been in use for several decades now. One branch of it, in silico ADMET, became more and more important since the late 1990s as studies indicated that poor pharmacokinetics and toxicity were important causes of costly late-stage failures in drug development. In this paper we describe some of the available methods and best practice for the different stages of the in silico model building process. We also describe some more recent developments, like automated model building and the prediction probability. Finally we will discuss the use of in silico ADMET for "big data" and the importance and possible further development of interpretable models.

Applicability Domain ANalysis (ADAN): a robust method for assessing the reliability of drug property predictions

We report a novel method called ADAN (Applicability Domain ANalysis) for assessing the reliability of drug property predictions obtained by in silico methods. The assessment provided by ADAN is based on the comparison of the query compound with the training set, using six diverse similarity criteria. For every criterion, the query compound is considered out of range when the similarity value obtained is larger than the 95th percentile of the values obtained for the training set. The final outcome is a number in the range of 0-6 that expresses the number of unmet similarity criteria and allows classifying the query compound within seven reliability categories. Such categories can be further exploited to assign simpler reliability classes using a traffic light schema, to assign approximate confidence intervals or to mark the predictions as unreliable. The entire methodology has been validated simulating realistic conditions, where query compounds are structurally diverse from those in the training set. The validation exercise involved the construction of more than 1000 models. These models were built using a combination of training set, molecular descriptors, and modeling methods representative of the real predictive tasks performed in the eTOX project (a project whose objective is to predict in vivo toxicological end points in drug development). Validation results confirm the robustness of the proposed assessment methodology, which compares favorably with other classical methods based solely on the structural similarity of the compounds. ADAN characteristics make the method well-suited for estimate the quality of drug predictions obtained in extremely unfavorable conditions, like the prediction of drug toxicity end points.

Supervised extensions of chemography approaches: case studies of chemical liabilities assessment

Chemical liabilities, such as adverse effects and toxicity, play a significant role in modern drug discovery process. In silico assessment of chemical liabilities is an important step aimed to reduce costs and animal testing by complementing or replacing in vitro and in vivo experiments. Herein, we propose an approach combining several classification and chemography methods to be able to predict chemical liabilities and to interpret obtained results in the context of impact of structural changes of compounds on their pharmacological profile. To our knowledge for the first time, the supervised extension of Generative Topographic Mapping is proposed as an effective new chemography method. New approach for mapping new data using supervised Isomap without re-building models from the scratch has been proposed. Two approaches for estimation of model's applicability domain are used in our study to our knowledge for the first time in chemoinformatics. The structural alerts responsible for the negative characteristics of pharmacological profile of chemical compounds has been found as a result of model interpretation.