Pandemic potential of a strain of influenza A (H1N1): early findings

Evolutionary entropy determines invasion success in emergent epidemics

BACKGROUND

Standard epidemiological theory claims that in structured populations competition between multiple pathogen strains is a deterministic process which is mediated by the basic reproduction number (R0) of the individual strains. A new theory based on analysis, simulation and empirical study challenges this predictor of success.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We show that the quantity R0 is a valid predictor in structured populations only when size is infinite. In this article we show that when population size is finite the dynamics of infection by multi-strain pathogens is a stochastic process whose outcome can be predicted by evolutionary entropy, S, an information theoretic measure which describes the uncertainty in the infectious age of an infected parent of a randomly chosen new infective. Evolutionary entropy characterises the demographic stability or robustness of the population of infectives. This statistical parameter determines the duration of infection and thus provides a quantitative index of the pathogenicity of a strain. Standard epidemiological theory based on R0 as a measure of selective advantage is the limit as the population size tends to infinity of the entropic selection theory. The standard model is an approximation to the entropic selection theory whose validity increases with population size.

CONCLUSION

An epidemiological analysis based on entropy is shown to explain empirical observations regarding the emergence of less pathogenic strains of human influenza during the antigenic drift phase. Furthermore, we exploit the entropy perspective to discuss certain epidemiological patterns of the current H1N1 swine flu outbreak.

VirSim - a model to support pandemic policy making

A simulation model called VirSim was developed to aid policy making in Sweden. The model simulates the spread of pandemic influenza, using real population data on a national and regional level. Swedish authorities wanted a model that was both quick to run and to implement as a complement to the existing model MicroSim. The possibility to interactively investigate the effect of varying different assumptions was an important aspect. The VirSim model proved useful for comparing different interventions strategies, and for forecasting the societal burden in terms of hospitalization and workplace absenteeism. This paper points out the usefulness of System Dynamics models in public policy making, as a complement to more detailed and time-consuming models.

Influenza A virus replication induces cell cycle arrest in G0/G1 phase

Many viruses interact with the host cell division cycle to favor their own growth. In this study, we examined the ability of influenza A virus to manipulate cell cycle progression. Our results show that influenza A virus A/WSN/33 (H1N1) replication results in G(0)/G(1)-phase accumulation of infected cells and that this accumulation is caused by the prevention of cell cycle entry from G(0)/G(1) phase into S phase. Consistent with the G(0)/G(1)-phase accumulation, the amount of hyperphosphorylated retinoblastoma protein, a necessary active form for cell cycle progression through late G(1) into S phase, decreased after infection with A/WSN/33 (H1N1) virus. In addition, other key molecules in the regulation of the cell cycle, such as p21, cyclin E, and cyclin D1, were also changed and showed a pattern of G(0)/G(1)-phase cell cycle arrest. It is interesting that increased viral protein expression and progeny virus production in cells synchronized in the G(0)/G(1) phase were observed compared to those in either unsynchronized cells or cells synchronized in the G(2)/M phase. G(0)/G(1)-phase cell cycle arrest is likely a common strategy, since the effect was also observed in other strains, such as H3N2, H9N2, PR8 H1N1, and pandemic swine H1N1 viruses. These findings, in all, suggest that influenza A virus may provide favorable conditions for viral protein accumulation and virus production by inducing a G(0)/G(1)-phase cell cycle arrest in infected cells.

Serological survey of 2009 H1N1 influenza in residents of Beijing, China

In order to determine the prevalence of antibody against 2009 H1N1 influenza in Beijing, we conducted a serological survey in 710 subjects, 1 month after the epidemic peak. We found that 13·8% of our cohort was seropositive. Subjects aged ≥60 years recorded the lowest seroprevalence (4·5%). The age-weighted seroprevalence of 14·0% was far lower than the supposed infection rate at the epidemic peak, derived from the basic reproduction number for 2009 H1N1 virus. For subjects who had received the pandemic vaccine seroprevalence was 51·4%. In subjects aged ≥60 years the seasonal influenza vaccination was not significantly associated with being seropositive. Our study suggests that many factors, and not just the immunological level against 2009 H1N1 influenza in the community, affected the spread of the virus within the population of Beijing.

Joint estimation of the basic reproduction number and generation time parameters for infectious disease outbreaks

The basic reproduction number is a key parameter determining whether an infectious disease will persist. Its counterpart over time, the effective reproduction number, is of value in assessing in real time whether interventions have brought an outbreak under control. In this paper, we use theoretical arguments and simulation to understand the relationship between estimation of the reproduction number based on a full continuous time epidemic model and 2 other recently developed estimators. All these methods make use of "epidemic curve" data and require assumptions about the generation time distribution. The 2 simplest estimators do not require information about the-often difficult to obtain-population size. The simplest estimator is shown to require further assumptions that are rarely valid in practical settings and to produce severely biased estimates compared to the others. Furthermore, we show that in general the parameters of the generation time distribution and the reproduction number are non-identified in the early stages of an incomplete outbreak. On the basis of these results, we recommend that, wherever possible, estimation of the basic and effective reproduction numbers should be based on a well-defined epidemic model; moreover, if external information is available then it should be incorporated in a Bayesian analysis.

Viral phylodynamics and the search for an 'effective number of infections'

Information on the dynamics of the effective population size over time can be obtained from the analysis of phylogenies, through the application of time-varying coalescent models. This approach has been used to study the dynamics of many different viruses, and has demonstrated a wide variety of patterns, which have been interpreted in the context of changes over time in the ‘effective number of infections’, a quantity proportional to the number of infected individuals. However, for infectious diseases, the rate of coalescence is driven primarily by new transmissions i.e. the incidence, and only indirectly by the number of infected individuals through sampling effects. Using commonly used epidemiological models, we show that the coalescence rate may indeed reflect the number of infected individuals during the initial phase of exponential growth when time is scaled by infectivity, but in general, a single change in time scale cannot be used to estimate the number of infected individuals. This has important implications when integrating phylogenetic data in the context of other epidemiological data.

Mortality patterns associated with the 1918 influenza pandemic in Mexico: evidence for a spring herald wave and lack of preexisting immunity in older populations

BACKGROUND

Although the mortality burden of the devastating 1918 influenza pandemic has been carefully quantified in the United States, Japan, and European countries, little is known about the pandemic experience elsewhere. Here, we compiled extensive archival records to quantify the pandemic mortality patterns in 2 Mexican cities, Mexico City and Toluca.

METHODS

We applied seasonal excess mortality models to age-specific respiratory mortality rates for 1915-1920 and quantified the reproduction number from daily data.

RESULTS

We identified 3 pandemic waves in Mexico City in spring 1918, autumn 1918, and winter 1920, which were characterized by unusual excess mortality among people 25-44 years old. Toluca experienced 2-fold higher excess mortality rates than Mexico City but did not experience a substantial third wave. All age groups, including that of people 65 years old, experienced excess mortality during 1918-1920. Reproduction number estimates were <2.5, assuming a 3-d generation interval.

CONCLUSION

Mexico experienced a herald pandemic wave with elevated young adult mortality in spring 1918, similar to the United States and Europe. In contrast to the United States and Europe, there was no mortality sparing among Mexican seniors 65 years old, highlighting potential geographical differences in preexisting immunity to the 1918 virus. We discuss the relevance of our findings to the 2009 pandemic mortality patterns.

Virulence-associated substitution D222G in the hemagglutinin of 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) virus affects receptor binding

The clinical impact of the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) virus (pdmH1N1) has been relatively low. However, amino acid substitution D222G in the hemagglutinin of pdmH1N1 has been associated with cases of severe disease and fatalities. D222G was introduced in a prototype pdmH1N1 by reverse genetics, and the effect on virus receptor binding, replication, antigenic properties, and pathogenesis and transmission in animal models was investigated. pdmH1N1 with D222G caused ocular disease in mice without further indications of enhanced virulence in mice and ferrets. pdmH1N1 with D222G retained transmissibility via aerosols or respiratory droplets in ferrets and guinea pigs. The virus displayed changes in attachment to human respiratory tissues in vitro, in particular increased binding to macrophages and type II pneumocytes in the alveoli and to tracheal and bronchial submucosal glands. Virus attachment studies further indicated that pdmH1N1 with D222G acquired dual receptor specificity for complex α2,3- and α2,6-linked sialic acids. Molecular dynamics modeling of the hemagglutinin structure provided an explanation for the retention of α2,6 binding. Altered receptor specificity of the virus with D222G thus affected interaction with cells of the human lower respiratory tract, possibly explaining the observed association with enhanced disease in humans.

Predictive power of air travel and socio-economic data for early pandemic spread

BACKGROUND

Controlling the pandemic spread of newly emerging diseases requires rapid, targeted allocation of limited resources among nations. Critical, early control steps would be greatly enhanced if the key risk factors can be identified that accurately predict early disease spread immediately after emergence.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Here, we examine the role of travel, trade, and national healthcare resources in predicting the emergence and initial spread of 2009 A/H1N1 influenza. We find that incorporating national healthcare resource data into our analyses allowed a much greater capacity to predict the international spread of this virus. In countries with lower healthcare resources, the reporting of 2009 A/H1N1 cases was significantly delayed, likely reflecting a lower capacity for testing and reporting, as well as other socio-political issues. We also report substantial international trade in live swine and poultry in the decade preceding the pandemic which may have contributed to the emergence and mixed genotype of this pandemic strain. However, the lack of knowledge of recent evolution of each H1N1 viral gene segment precludes the use of this approach to determine viral origins.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

We conclude that strategies to prevent pandemic influenza virus emergence and spread in the future should include: 1) enhanced surveillance for strains resulting from reassortment in traded livestock; 2) rapid deployment of control measures in the initial spreading phase to countries where travel data predict the pathogen will reach and to countries where lower healthcare resources will likely cause delays in reporting. Our results highlight the benefits, for all parties, when higher income countries provide additional healthcare resources for lower income countries, particularly those that have high air traffic volumes. In particular, international authorities should prioritize aid to those poorest countries where both the risk of emerging infectious diseases and air traffic volume is highest. This strategy will result in earlier detection of pathogens and a reduction in the impact of future pandemics.

A 27-amino-acid deletion in the neuraminidase stalk supports replication of an avian H2N2 influenza A virus in the respiratory tract of chickens

The events and mechanisms that lead to interspecies transmission of, and host adaptation to, influenza A virus are unknown; however, both surface and internal proteins have been implicated. Our previous report highlighted the role that Japanese quail play as an intermediate host, expanding the host range of a mallard H2N2 virus, A/mallard/Potsdam/178-4/83 (H2N2), through viral adaptation. This quail-adapted virus supported transmission in quail and increased its host range to replicate and be transmitted efficiently in chickens. Here we report that of the six amino acid changes in the quail-adapted virus, a single change in the hemagglutinin (HA) was crucial for transmission in quail, while the changes in the polymerase genes favored replication at lower temperatures than those for the wild-type mallard virus. Reverse genetic analysis indicated that all adaptive mutations were necessary for transmission in chickens, further implicating quail in extending this virus to terrestrial poultry. Adaptation of the quail-adapted virus in chickens resulted in the alteration of viral tropism from intestinal shedding to shedding and transmission via the respiratory tract. Sequence analysis indicated that this chicken-adapted virus maintained all quail-adaptive mutations, as well as an additional change in the HA and, most notably, a 27-amino-acid deletion in the stalk region of neuraminidase (NA), a genotypic marker of influenza virus adaptation to chickens. This stalk deletion was shown to be responsible for the change in virus tropism from the intestine to the respiratory tract.

A two-tiered model for simulating the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of rapidly evolving viruses, with an application to influenza

Understanding the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of rapidly evolving pathogens is one of the most challenging problems facing disease ecologists today. To date, many mathematical and individual-based models have provided key insights into the factors that may regulate these dynamics. However, in many of these models, abstractions have been made to the simulated sequences that limit an effective interface with empirical data. This is especially the case for rapidly evolving viruses in which de novo mutations result in antigenically novel variants. With this focus, we present a simple two-tiered 'phylodynamic' model whose purpose is to simulate, along with case data, sequence data that will allow for a more quantitative interface with observed sequence data. The model differs from previous approaches in that it separates the simulation of the epidemiological dynamics (tier 1) from the molecular evolution of the virus's dominant antigenic protein (tier 2). This separation of phenotypic dynamics from genetic dynamics results in a modular model that is computationally simpler and allows sequences to be simulated with specifications such as sequence length, nucleotide composition and molecular constraints. To illustrate its use, we apply the model to influenza A (H3N2) dynamics in humans, influenza B dynamics in humans and influenza A (H3N8) dynamics in equine hosts. In all three of these illustrative examples, we show that the model can simulate sequences that are quantitatively similar in pattern to those empirically observed. Future work should focus on statistical estimation of model parameters for these examples as well as the possibility of applying this model, or variants thereof, to other host-virus systems.

[Epidemiological study of influenza-like illness under enhanced surveillance in Saku, Nagano Prefecture, outpatients during the 2008-09 influenza season]

Many influenza-like illness (ILI) outpatients visit healthcare facilities such as internal medicine and pediatric clinics every year. In Japan, however, ILI is reported only by sentinel healthcare facilities. We studied the number of ILI subjects visiting sentinel and non-sentinel healthcare facilities during the 2008-09 season in Saku, Nagano prefecture, obtaining the numbers of cases from sentinel and non-sentinel facilities. Most ILI subjects visited internal and pediatric facilities, and some visited otorhinolaryngological clinics not included as sentinel sites. We also estimated the total number of influenza cases based on data from sentinel facilities and total surveyed facilities, including non-sentinel. We divided facilities into hospitals with pediatrics, pediatric clinics, internal medicine and pediatric clinics, hospitals and clinics with internal medicine but no pediatrics, and otorhinolaryngological clinics. Estimated sentinel-site ILI cases was 2862, including 1020 for hospitals with pediatrics and 1,674 for clinics with internal medicine and pediatrics. The estimated number of ILI cases from total facilities surveyed was significantly lower, at 503 for hospitals with pediatrics, and 741 for clinics with internal medicine and pediatrics. Estimated ILI cases from categories not including sentinel sites were 967 for hospitals and clinics with internal medicine but no pediatrics, and 71 for otorhinolaryngological clinics. The estimated number of total ILI cases differed by 18.5%, depending on facility categories. This indicates that more detailed analysis is needed to accurately estimate ILI cases.

Serological response in RT-PCR confirmed H1N1-2009 influenza a by hemagglutination inhibition and virus neutralization assays: an observational study

BACKGROUND

We describe the serological response following H1N1-2009 influenza A infections confirmed by reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR).

METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

The study included patients admitted to hospital, subjects of a seroepidemiologic cohort study, and participants identified from outbreak studies in Singapore. Baseline (first available blood sample) and follow-up blood samples were analyzed for antibody titers to H1N1-2009 and recently circulating seasonal influenza A virus strains by hemagglutination inhibition (HI) and virus micro-neutralization (VM) assays. 267 samples from 118 cases of H1N1-2009 were analyzed. Geometric mean titers by HI peaked at 123 (95% confidence interval, CI 43-356) between days 30 to 39. The chance of observing seroconversion (four-fold or greater increase of antibodies) was maximized when restricting analysis to 45 participants with baseline sera collected within 5 days of onset and follow-up sera collected 15 or more days after onset; for these participants, 82% and 89% seroconverted to A/California/7/2009 H1N1 by HI and VM respectively. A four-fold or greater increase in cross-reactive antibody titers to seasonal A/Brisbane/59/2007 H1N1, A/Brisbane/10/2007 H3N2 and A/Wisconsin/15/2009 H3N2 occurred in 20%, 18% and 16% of participants respectively.

CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE

Appropriately timed paired serology detects 80-90% RT-PCR confirmed H1N1-2009; Antibodies from infection with H1N1-2009 cross-reacted with seasonal influenza viruses.

Changes in knowledge, perceptions, preventive behaviours and psychological responses in the pre-community outbreak phase of the H1N1 epidemic

To investigate the changes in community responsiveness during the pre-community-outbreak phase of the H1N1 epidemic in Hong Kong, a pooled sample of 999 adults was interviewed in three surveys (S1, S2, S3) from 7 May to 6 June 2009. Over time, fewer people felt confident in staying free from H1N1 infection in the following year (S1, 63·3%; S3, 46%; P<0·001). The level of distress due to H1N1 remained modest throughout the study period. People's confidence in the government's ability to control a large-scale H1N1 outbreak declined slightly at the third survey (S1, 80·5%; S3, 73·8%; P=0·025). Across the three surveys, respondents remained vigilant with frequent adoption of preventive measures (e.g. wearing face masks in public areas when suffering from influenza-like symptoms and frequent hand-washing). The public was generally supportive of the Hong Kong government although misconceptions regarding the disease were common. Provision of evidence-based public-health education is still warranted as the disease outbreak unfolds.

Detection of swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) viruses using a localized surface plasmon coupled fluorescence fiber-optic biosensor

Swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus (S-OIV) was identified as a new reassortant strain of influenza A virus in April 2009 and led to an influenza pandemic. Accurate and timely diagnoses are crucial for the control of influenza disease. We developed a localized surface plasmon coupled fluorescence fiber-optic biosensor (LSPCF-FOB) which combines a sandwich immunoassay with the LSP technique using antibodies against the hemagglutinin (HA) proteins of S-OIVs. The detection limit of the LSPCF-FOB for recombinant S-OIV H1 protein detection was estimated at 13.9 pg/mL, which is 10³-fold better than that of conventional capture ELISA when using the same capture antibodies. For clinical S-OIV isolates measurement, meanwhile, the detection limit of the LSPCF-FOB platform was calculated to be 8.25 × 10⁴ copies/mL, compared with 2.06 × 10⁶ copies/mL using conventional capture ELISA. Furthermore, in comparison with the influenza A/B rapid test, the detection limit of the LSPCF-FOB for S-OIV was almost 50-fold in PBS solution and 25-fold lower in mimic solution, which used nasal mucosa from healthy donors as the diluent. The findings of this study therefore indicate that the high detection sensitivity and specificity of the LSPCF-FOB make it a potentially effective diagnostic tool for clinical S-OIV infection and this technique has the potential to be applied to the development of other clinical microbe detection platforms.

Seroepidemiology of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus infections in Pune, India

Background

In India, Pune was one of the badly affected cities during the influenza A (H1N1) 2009 pandemic. We undertook serosurveys among the risk groups and general population to determine the extent of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus infections.

Methods

Pre-pandemic sera from the archives, collected during January 2005 to March 2009, were assayed for the determination of baseline seropositivity. Serosurveys were undertaken among the risk groups such as hospital staff, general practitioners, school children and staff and general population between 15^th August and 11^th December 2009. In addition, the PCR-confirmed pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 cases and their household contacts were also investigated. Haemagglutination-inhibition (HI) assays were performed using turkey red blood cells employing standard protocols. A titre of ≥1:40 was considered seropositive.

Results

Only 2 (0.9%) of the 222 pre-pandemic sera were positive. The test-retest reliability of HI assay in 101 sera was 98% for pandemic H1N1, 93.1% for seasonal H1N1 and 94% for seasonal H3N2. The sera from 48 (73.8%) of 65 PCR-confirmed pandemic H1N1 cases in 2009 were positive. Seropositivity among general practitioners increased from 4.9% in August to 9.4% in November and 15.1% in December. Among hospital staff, seropositivity increased from 2.8% in August to 12% in November. Seropositivity among the schools increased from 2% in August to 10.7% in September. The seropositivity among students (25%) was higher than the school staff in September. In a general population survey in October 2009, seropositivity was higher in children (9.1%) than adults (4.3%). The 15-19 years age group showed the highest seropositivity of 20.3%. Seropositivity of seasonal H3N2 (55.3%) and H1N1 (26.4%) was higher than pandemic H1N1 (5.7%) (n = 2328). In households of 74 PCR-confirmed pandemic H1N1 cases, 25.6% contacts were seropositive. Almost 90% pandemic H1N1 infections were asymptomatic or mild. Considering a titre cut off of 1:10, seropositivity was 1.5-3 times as compared to 1:40.

Conclusions

Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus infection was widespread in all sections of community. However, infection was significantly higher in school children and general practitioners. Hospital staff had the lowest infections suggesting the efficacy of infection-control measures.

Emergency surveillance of influenza during 2009 in the Chinese city of Qingdao

Please cite this paper as: Wang et al. (2010) Emergency surveillance of influenza during 2009 in the Chinese city of Qingdao. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 5(1), 53–59.

Background  In April, 2009, a new influenza pandemic caused by a swine‐origin H1N1 subtype influenza virus was imminent. We thereby carried out an emergency surveillance study in a Chinese city of Qingdao.

Methods  Pharyngeal swab samples were collected from four targeted groups and tested by reverse‐transcription polymerase chain reaction. Each laboratory‐confirmed pandemic H1N1 case or cluster was investigated, and the hemagglutinin genes of some of the viruses were sequenced and analyzed.

Results  A total of 140 pandemic H1N1 cases including 92 from 7 clusters were identified in the four targeted groups. None of them developed into severe infections. Meanwhile, 103 cases of seasonal influenza (98 H3N2 and 5 H1N1) and 10 clusters of seasonal H3N2 influenza were also identified. Among them, 38 pandemic H1N1 and two seasonal H3N2 influenza cases were air travellers, suggesting that air travel facilitates the spread of pandemic and seasonal influenza even in the northern hemisphere summer. In addition, it was found that pandemic H1N1 and seasonal H3N2 influenza viruses co‐circulated in two clusters. No significant mutations were found in the hemagglutinin gene sequences of pandemic H1N1 viruses, but the seasonal H3N2 influenza viruses have become genetically distinguishable from those circulating in 2007–2008.

Absence of cross-reactive antibodies to influenza A (H1N1) 2009 before and after vaccination with 2009 Southern Hemisphere seasonal trivalent influenza vaccine in children aged 6 months-9 years: a prospective study

Please cite this paper as: McVernon et al. (2010) Absence of cross‐reactive antibodies to influenza A (H1N1) 2009 before and after vaccination with 2009 Southern Hemisphere seasonal trivalent influenza vaccine in children aged 6 months–9 years: a prospective study. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 5(1), 7–11.

Background  Early outbreaks of the pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus predominantly involved young children, who fuelled transmission through spread in homes and schools. Seroprevalence studies conducted on stored serum collections indicated low levels of antibody to the novel strain in this age group, leading many to recommend priority immunisation of paediatric populations.

Objectives  In a prospective study, we sought evidence of cross‐reactive antibodies to the pandemic virus in children who were naïve to seasonal influenza vaccines, at baseline and following two doses of the 2009 Southern Hemisphere trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV).

Patients/Methods  Twenty children were recruited, with a median age of 4 years (interquartile range 3–5 years); all received two age appropriate doses of TIV. Paired sera were collected pre‐ and post‐vaccination for the assessment of vaccine immunogenicity, using haemagglutination inhibition and microneutralisation assays against vaccine‐related viruses and influenza A (H1N1) 2009.

Results  Robust responses to H3N2 were observed regardless of age or pre‐vaccination titre, with 100% seroconversion. Fewer seroconverted to the seasonal H1N1 component. Only two children were weakly seropositive (HI titre 40) to the pandemic H1N1 strain at study entry, and none showed evidence of seroconversion by HI assay following TIV administration.

Conclusions  Administration of 2009 Southern Hemisphere TIV did little to elicit cross‐reactive antibodies to the pandemic H1N1 virus in children, in keeping with assay results on stored sera from studies of previous seasonal vaccines. Our findings support the recommendations for influenza A (H1N1) 2009 vaccination of children in preparation for the 2010 winter season.

New influenza A/H1N1 ("swine flu"): information needs of airport passengers and staff

Please cite this paper as: Dickmann et al. (2010) New Influenza A/H1N1 (“Swine Flu”): information needs of airport passengers and staff. . Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 5(1), 39–46.

Background  Airports are the entrances of infectious diseases. Particularly at the beginning of an outbreak, information and communication play an important role to enable the early detection of signs or symptoms and to encourage passengers to adopt appropriate preventive behaviour to limit the spread of the disease.

Objectives  To determine the adequacy of the information provided to airport passengers and staff in meeting their information needs in relation to their concerns.

Methods  At the start of the influenza A/H1N1 epidemic (29–30 April 2009), qualitative semi‐structured interviews (N = 101) were conducted at Frankfurt International Airport with passengers who were either returning from or going to Mexico and with airport staff who had close contact with these passengers. Interviews focused on knowledge about swine flu, information needs and fear or concern about the outbreak.

Results  The results showed that a desire for more information was associated with higher concern – the least concerned participants did not want any additional information, while the most concerned participants reported a range of information needs. Airport staff in contact with passengers travelling from the epicentre of the outbreak showed the highest levels of fear or concern, coupled with a desire to be adequately briefed by their employer.

Conclusions  Our results suggest that information strategies should address not only the exposed or potentially exposed but also groups that feel at risk. Identifying what information these different passenger and staff groups wish to receive will be an important task in any future infectious disease outbreak.

Utilizing spatiotemporal analysis of influenza-like illness and rapid tests to focus swine-origin influenza virus intervention

In the spring of 2009, a novel strain of H1N1 swine-origin influenza A virus (S-OIV) emerged in Mexico and the United States, and soon after was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. This work examined the ability of real-time reports of influenza-like illness (ILI) symptoms and rapid influenza diagnostic tests (RIDTs) to approximate the spatiotemporal distribution of PCR-confirmed S-OIV cases for the purposes of focusing local intervention efforts. Cluster and age adjusted relative risk patterns of ILI, RIDT, and S-OIV were assessed at a fine spatial scale at different time and space extents within Cameron County, Texas on the US-Mexico border. Space-time patterns of ILI and RIDT were found to effectively characterize the areas with highest geographical risk of S-OIV within the first two weeks of the outbreak. Based on these results, ILI and/or RIDT may prove to be acceptable indicators of the location of S-OIV hotspots. Given that S-OIV data is often difficult to obtain real-time during an outbreak; these findings may be of use to public health officials targeting prevention and response efforts during future flu outbreaks.

Multi-agent modeling of the South Korean avian influenza epidemic

Background

Several highly pathogenic avian influenza (AI) outbreaks have been reported over the past decade. South Korea recently faced AI outbreaks whose economic impact was estimated to be 6.3 billion dollars, equivalent to nearly 50% of the profit generated by the poultry-related industries in 2008. In addition, AI is threatening to cause a human pandemic of potentially devastating proportions. Several studies show that a stochastic simulation model can be used to plan an efficient containment strategy on an emerging influenza. Efficient control of AI outbreaks based on such simulation studies could be an important strategy in minimizing its adverse economic and public health impacts.

Methods

We constructed a spatio-temporal multi-agent model of chickens and ducks in poultry farms in South Korea. The spatial domain, comprised of 76 (37.5 km × 37.5 km) unit squares, approximated the size and scale of South Korea. In this spatial domain, we introduced 3,039 poultry flocks (corresponding to 2,231 flocks of chickens and 808 flocks of ducks) whose spatial distribution was proportional to the number of birds in each province. The model parameterizes the properties and dynamic behaviors of birds in poultry farms and quarantine plans and included infection probability, incubation period, interactions among birds, and quarantine region.

Results

We conducted sensitivity analysis for the different parameters in the model. Our study shows that the quarantine plan with well-chosen values of parameters is critical for minimize loss of poultry flocks in an AI outbreak. Specifically, the aggressive culling plan of infected poultry farms over 18.75 km radius range is unlikely to be effective, resulting in higher fractions of unnecessarily culled poultry flocks and the weak culling plan is also unlikely to be effective, resulting in higher fractions of infected poultry flocks.

Conclusions

Our results show that a prepared response with targeted quarantine protocols would have a high probability of containing the disease. The containment plan with an aggressive culling plan is not necessarily efficient, causing a higher fraction of unnecessarily culled poultry farms. Instead, it is necessary to balance culling with other important factors involved in AI spreading. Better estimations for the containment of AI spreading with this model offer the potential to reduce the loss of poultry and minimize economic impact on the poultry industry.

Controlling Influenza A (H1N1) in China

This article discusses two approaches to controlling the newly identified influenza A (H1N1): via Bayesian and frequentist statistical reasoning. This study reviewed the measures implemented in China as an example to illustrate these two approaches. Since May 2009, China has deployed strict controlling mechanisms based on the strong prior Bayesian assumption that the origin of influenza A (H1N1) was from outside China and as such strict border control would keep the virus from entering China. After more than 4 months of hard work by Chinese health professionals and officials, the number of confirmed influenza A (H1N1) has increased steadily against the expectations of the general public. Taking into account the great financial burden in maintaining strict measures, Chinese health authorities have slowly adjusted their policies of controlling influenza A (H1N1) in China according to frequentist reasoning since July 2009.

Evaluation of vaccination strategies to suppress a novel influenza pandemic using an individual-based model

OBJECTIVES

In this study, we aimed to evaluate vaccination strategies with regard to the impact of prioritization, coverage, and a delay in the vaccination program against a novel influenza pandemic with high-level fatality equivalent to Spanish flu using an individual-based model (IBM). Vaccination is one of the main measures to prevent infection, a serious condition, or death.

METHODS

We constructed an IBM for the transmission of a novel influenza virus utilizing personal information on the basis of demographic data from Sapporo City, thereby resulting in a more realistic model. We designed simulations for scenarios along the guidelines of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan, which requests the prioritization of vaccination of pregnant women and persons with underlying diseases, among whom influenza would cause higher fatality than among healthy persons, infants, or their parents, as well as school-aged and old-aged persons.

RESULTS

A vaccination program fully taking into account the ordered priority groups would more effectively reduce the number of deaths in the priority groups and also the total number of deaths in comparison with a program shortening the transition time to the next priority or a non-priority group. A delay in the vaccination program would lower the effectiveness of reducing the numbers of patients and deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

According to the simulation-based results, when vaccination programs scheduled on the basis of priority groups start 90 and 150 days after outbreak, the total numbers of patients would be reduced to one-third-one-half, and two-thirds, respectively, in comparison with baseline of no vaccination, which leads to the necessity to conduct a vaccination program as soon as possible.

New influenza A (H1N1/09) in three renal transplant patients

The pandemic new influenza A (H1N1/09) virus may be especially threatening for immunosuppressed renal transplant patients as they are at increased risk for complications, prolonged infection and mortality. This is the first case report of renal transplant patients with PCR-confirmed H1N1 respiratory tract infection. They showed a surprisingly mild clinical course despite respiratory fungal or viral co-infections in two cases. Treatment with oseltamivir in standard dosage was immediately started after diagnosis and proved to be rapidly beneficial with respect to clinical outcome and virus shedding without deteriorating renal transplant function.

Sphingosine 1-phosphate-metabolizing enzymes control influenza virus propagation and viral cytopathogenicity

Sphingosine 1-phosphate (S1P)-metabolizing enzymes regulate the level of sphingolipids and have important biological functions. However, the effects of S1P-metabolizing enzymes on host defense against invading viruses remain unknown. In this study, we investigated the role of S1P-metabolizing enzymes in modulating cellular responses to influenza virus infection. Overexpression of S1P lyase (SPL), which induces the degradation of S1P, interfered with the amplification of infectious influenza virus. Accordingly, SPL-overexpressing cells were much more resistant than control cells to the cytopathic effects caused by influenza virus infection. SPL-mediated inhibition of virus-induced cell death was supported by impairment of the upregulation of the proapoptotic protein Bax, a critical factor for influenza virus cytopathogenicity. Importantly, influenza virus infection of SPL-overexpressing cells induced rapid activation of extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK) and STAT1 but not of p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK), Akt, or c-Jun N-terminal kinase (JNK). Blockade of STAT1 expression or inhibition of Janus kinase (JAK) activity elevated the level of influenza virus replication in the cells, indicating that SPL protects cells from influenza virus via the activation of JAK/STAT signaling. In contrast to that of SPL, the overexpression of S1P-producing sphingosine kinase 1 heightened the cells' susceptibility to influenza virus infection, an effect that was reversed by the inhibition of its kinase activity, representing opposed enzymatic activity. These findings indicate that the modulation of S1P-metabolizing enzymes is crucial for controlling the host defense against infection with influenza virus. Thus, S1P-metabolizing enzymes are novel potential targets for the treatment of diseases caused by influenza virus infection.

The risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA

We estimate the risk of acquiring the new influenza A(H1N1) for Brazilian travelers to Chile, Argentina and the USA. This is done by a mathematical model that quantifies the intensity of transmission of the new virus in those countries and the probability that one individual has of acquiring the influenza depending on the date of arrival and time spent in the area. The maximum estimated risk reached 7.5 cases per 10,000 visitors to Chile, 17 cases per 10,000 travelers to Argentina and 23 cases per 10,000 travelers to the USA. The estimated number of imported cases until 27 July is 57 +/- 9 from Chile, 136 +/- 27 from the USA and 301 +/- 21 from Argentina, which are in accord with the official figures. Estimating the number of imported cases was particularly important for the moment of the disease introduction into this country, but it will certainly be important again as a tool to calculate the number of future imported cases from northern countries in our next inter-epidemic season, were imported cases can constitute again the majority of the new influenza burden to the Brazilian health services.

Developing guidelines for school closure interventions to be used during a future influenza pandemic

Background

The A/H1N1 2009 influenza pandemic revealed that operational issues of school closure interventions, such as when school closure should be initiated (activation trigger), how long schools should be closed (duration) and what type of school closure should be adopted, varied greatly between and within countries. Computer simulation can be used to examine school closure intervention strategies in order to inform public health authorities as they refine school closure guidelines in light of experience with the A/H1N1 2009 pandemic.

Methods

An individual-based simulation model was used to investigate the effectiveness of school closure interventions for influenza pandemics with R₀ of 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5. The effectiveness of individual school closure and simultaneous school closure were analyzed for 2, 4 and 8 weeks closure duration, with a daily diagnosed case based intervention activation trigger scheme. The effectiveness of combining antiviral drug treatment and household prophyaxis with school closure was also investigated.

Results

Illness attack rate was reduced from 33% to 19% (14% reduction in overall attack rate) by 8 weeks school closure activating at 30 daily diagnosed cases in the community for an influenza pandemic with R₀ = 1.5; when combined with antivirals a 19% (from 33% to 14%) reduction in attack rate was obtained. For R₀ >= 2.0, school closure would be less effective. An 8 weeks school closure strategy gives 9% (from 50% to 41%) and 4% (from 59% to 55%) reduction in attack rate for R₀ = 2.0 and 2.5 respectively; however, school closure plus antivirals would give a significant reduction (~15%) in over all attack rate. The results also suggest that an individual school closure strategy would be more effective than simultaneous school closure.

Conclusions

Our results indicate that the particular school closure strategy to be adopted depends both on the disease severity, which will determine the duration of school closure deemed acceptable, and its transmissibility. For epidemics with a low transmissibility (R₀ < 2.0) and/or mild severity, individual school closures should begin once a daily community case count is exceeded. For a severe, highly transmissible epidemic (R₀ >= 2.0), long duration school closure should begin as soon as possible and be combined with other interventions.

Changes in the viral distribution pattern after the appearance of the novel influenza A H1N1 (pH1N1) virus in influenza-like illness patients in Peru

Background

We describe the temporal variation in viral agents detected in influenza like illness (ILI) patients before and after the appearance of the ongoing pandemic influenza A (H1N1) (pH1N1) in Peru between 4-January and 13-July 2009.

Methods

At the health centers, one oropharyngeal swab was obtained for viral isolation. From epidemiological week (EW) 1 to 18, at the US Naval Medical Research Center Detachment (NMRCD) in Lima, the specimens were inoculated into four cell lines for virus isolation. In addition, from EW 19 to 28, the specimens were also analyzed by real time-polymerase-chain-reaction (rRT-PCR).

Results

We enrolled 2,872 patients: 1,422 cases before the appearance of the pH1N1 virus, and 1,450 during the pandemic. Non-pH1N1 influenza A virus was the predominant viral strain circulating in Peru through (EW) 18, representing 57.8% of the confirmed cases; however, this predominance shifted to pH1N1 (51.5%) from EW 19–28. During this study period, most of pH1N1 cases were diagnosed in the capital city (Lima) followed by other cities including Cusco and Trujillo. In contrast, novel influenza cases were essentially absent in the tropical rain forest (jungle) cities during our study period. The city of Iquitos (Jungle) had the highest number of influenza B cases and only one pH1N1 case.

Conclusions

The viral distribution in Peru changed upon the introduction of the pH1N1 virus compared to previous months. Although influenza A viruses continue to be the predominant viral pathogen, the pH1N1 virus predominated over the other influenza A viruses.

Differential localization and function of PB1-F2 derived from different strains of influenza A virus

PB1-F2 is a viral protein that is encoded by the PB1 gene of influenza A virus by alternative translation. It varies in length and sequence context among different strains. The present study examines the functions of PB1-F2 proteins derived from various human and avian viruses. While H1N1 PB1-F2 was found to target mitochondria and enhance apoptosis, H5N1 PB1-F2, surprisingly, did not localize specifically to mitochondria and displayed no ability to enhance apoptosis. Introducing Leu into positions 69 (Q69L) and 75 (H75L) in the C terminus of H5N1 PB1-F2 drove 40.7% of the protein to localize to mitochondria compared with the level of mitochondrial localization of wild-type H5N1 PB1-F2, suggesting that a Leu-rich sequence in the C terminus is important for targeting of mitochondria. However, H5N1 PB1-F2 contributes to viral RNP activity, which is responsible for viral RNA replication. Lastly, although the swine-origin influenza virus (S-OIV) contained a truncated form of PB1-F2 (12 amino acids [aa]), potential mutation in the future may enable it to contain a full-length product. Therefore, the functions of this putative S-OIV PB1-F2 (87 aa) were also investigated. Although this PB1-F2 from the mutated S-OIV shares only 54% amino acid sequence identity with that of seasonal H1N1 virus, it also increased viral RNP activity. The plaque size and growth curve of the viruses with and without S-OIV PB1-F2 differed greatly. The PB1-F2 protein has various lengths, amino acid sequences, cellular localizations, and functions in different strains, which result in strain-specific pathogenicity. Such genetic and functional diversities make it flexible and adaptable in maintaining the optimal replication efficiency and virulence for various strains of influenza A virus.

Oseltamivir for treatment and prevention of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 virus infection in households, Milwaukee, 2009

BACKGROUND

During an influenza pandemic, a substantial proportion of transmission is thought to occur in households. We used data on influenza progression in individuals and their contacts collected by the City of Milwaukee Health Department (MHD) to study the transmission of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 virus in 362 households in Milwaukee, WI, and the effects of oseltamivir treatment and chemoprophylaxis.

METHODS

135 households had chronological information on symptoms and oseltamivir usage for all household members. The effect of oseltamivir treatment and other factors on the household secondary attack rate was estimated using univariate and multivariate logistic regression with households as the unit of analysis. The effect of oseltamivir treatment and other factors on the individual secondary attack rate was estimated using univariate and multivariate logistic regression with individual household contacts as the unit of analysis, and a generalized estimating equations approach was used to fit the model to allow for clustering within households.

RESULTS

Oseltamivir index treatment on onset day or the following day (early treatment) was associated with a 42% reduction (OR: 0.58, 95% CI: 0.19, 1.73) in the odds of one or more secondary infections in a household and a 50% reduction (OR: 0.5, 95% CI: 0.17, 1.46) in the odds of a secondary infection in individual contacts. The confidence bounds are wide due to a small sample of households with early oseltamivir index usage - in 29 such households, 5 had a secondary attack. Younger household contacts were at higher risk of infection (OR: 2.79, 95% CI: 1.50-5.20).

CONCLUSIONS

Early oseltamivir treatment may be beneficial in preventing H1N1pdm influenza transmission; this may have relevance to future control measures for influenza pandemics. Larger randomized trials are needed to confirm this finding statistically.

Therapeutic effect of recombinant human catalase on H1N1 influenza-induced pneumonia in mice

Reactive oxygen species (ROS) are believed to play a key role in the induction of lung damage caused by pneumonia and therapeutic agents that could effectively scavenge ROS may prevent or reduce the deleterious effects of influenza-induced pneumonia. In this study, we first demonstrated that human catalase could attenuate acute oxidative injury in lung tissues following influenza-induced pneumonia. Mice were infected with influenza virus H1N1 (FM1 strain) and treated with recombinant human catalase (50,000 U/kg) by inhalation. The survival time and survival rates of H1N1 induced pneumonia mice were increased by treatment with recombinant human catalase. Protective efficacy of catalase was also observed in lung histology, anti-oxidant parameters, pulmonary pathology and influenza viral titer in lungs in mice. These observations were associated with increased serum superoxide and hydroxyl radical anion scavenging capacities. This study strongly indicated that recombinant catalase might be a potential therapy for H1N1 influenza-induced pneumonia.

Seroprevalence following the second wave of Pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza in Pittsburgh, PA, USA

Background

In April 2009, a new pandemic strain of influenza infected thousands of persons in Mexico and the United States and spread rapidly worldwide. During the ensuing summer months, cases ebbed in the Northern Hemisphere while the Southern Hemisphere experienced a typical influenza season dominated by the novel strain. In the fall, a second wave of pandemic H1N1 swept through the United States, peaking in most parts of the country by mid October and returning to baseline levels by early December. The objective was to determine the seroprevalence of antibodies against the pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza strain by decade of birth among Pittsburgh-area residents.

Methods and Findings

Anonymous blood samples were obtained from clinical laboratories and categorized by decade of birth from 1920–2009. Using hemagglutination-inhibition assays, approximately 100 samples per decade (n = 846) were tested from blood samples drawn on hospital and clinic patients in mid-November and early December 2009. Age specific seroprevalences against pandemic H1N1 (A/California/7/2009) were measured and compared to seroprevalences against H1N1 strains that had previously circulated in the population in 2007, 1957, and 1918. (A/Brisbane/59/2007, A/Denver/1/1957, and A/South Carolina/1/1918). Stored serum samples from healthy, young adults from 2008 were used as a control group (n = 100). Seroprevalences against pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza varied by age group, with children age 10–19 years having the highest seroprevalence (45%), and persons age 70–79 years having the lowest (5%). The baseline seroprevalence among control samples from 18–24 year-olds was 6%. Overall seroprevalence against pandemic H1N1 across all age groups was approximately 21%.

Conclusions

After the peak of the second wave of 2009 H1N1, HAI seroprevalence results suggest that 21% of persons in the Pittsburgh area had become infected and developed immunity. Extrapolating to the entire US population, we estimate that at least 63 million persons became infected in 2009. As was observed among clinical cases, this sero-epidemiological study revealed highest infection rates among school-age children.

Repository of Eurasian influenza A virus hemagglutinin and neuraminidase reverse genetics vectors and recombinant viruses

Reverse genetics can be used to produce recombinant influenza A viruses containing virtually every desired combination of hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) genes using the virus backbone of choice. Here, a repository of plasmids and recombinant viruses representing all contemporary Eurasian HA and NA subtypes, H1-H16 and N1-N9, was established. HA and NA genes were selected based on sequence analyses of influenza virus genes available from public databases. Prototype Eurasian HA and NA genes were cloned in bidirectional reverse genetics plasmids. Recombinant viruses based on the virus backbone of A/PR/8/34, and containing a variety of HA and NA genes were produced in 293T cells. Virus stocks were produced in MDCK cells and embryonated chicken eggs. These plasmids and viruses may be useful for numerous purposes, including influenza virus research projects, vaccination studies, and to serve as reference reagents in diagnostic settings.

Features of the new pandemic influenza A/H1N1/2009 virus: virology, epidemiology, clinical and public health aspects

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The emergence of the pandemic A/H1N1/2009 influenza virus has enabled preexisting pandemic influenza plans to be put into action. This review examines the clinical and public health impact of this new virus.

RECENT FINDINGS

Although early figures suggested that this pandemic virus was causing higher morbidity and mortality than seasonal influenza viruses, subsequent studies have found it to cause milder disease in most cases. Yet, there are some groups with increased risk of serious disease from this new pathogen. The widespread use of antiviral agents, prophylactically and therapeutically, has led to the sporadic emergence of drug resistance, though this is still rare. Nonpharmacological public health interventions for containment and mitigation have been relatively ineffective in limiting the rapid, global spread of this pathogen. Recently, the focus has been on the manufacture and distribution of various specific vaccines against this new virus, and the care of severely ill patients admitted to intensive care.

SUMMARY

As this virus continues to infect new members of the global population, it may eventually become just one of the annual circulating seasonal influenza viruses. Until then, it will be prudent to continue to monitor it closely for any signs of enhanced transmissibility and virulence.

Efficient mitigation strategies for epidemics in rural regions

Containing an epidemic at its origin is the most desirable mitigation. Epidemics have often originated in rural areas, with rural communities among the first affected. Disease dynamics in rural regions have received limited attention, and results of general studies cannot be directly applied since population densities and human mobility factors are very different in rural regions from those in cities. We create a network model of a rural community in Kansas, USA, by collecting data on the contact patterns and computing rates of contact among a sampled population. We model the impact of different mitigation strategies detecting closely connected groups of people and frequently visited locations. Within those groups and locations, we compare the effectiveness of random and targeted vaccinations using a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered compartmental model on the contact network. Our simulations show that the targeted vaccinations of only 10% of the sampled population reduced the size of the epidemic by 34.5%. Additionally, if 10% of the population visiting one of the most popular locations is randomly vaccinated, the epidemic size is reduced by 19%. Our results suggest a new implementation of a highly effective strategy for targeted vaccinations through the use of popular locations in rural communities.

A computer simulation of vaccine prioritization, allocation, and rationing during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic

In the fall 2009, the University of Pittsburgh Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS) team employed an agent-based computer simulation model (ABM) of the greater Washington, DC, metropolitan region to assist the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Public Preparedness and Response, Department of Health and Human Services, to address several key questions regarding vaccine allocation during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, including comparing a vaccinating children (i.e., highest transmitters)-first policy versus the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP)-recommended vaccinating at-risk individuals-first policy. Our study supported adherence to the ACIP (instead of a children-first policy) prioritization recommendations for the H1N1 influenza vaccine when vaccine is in limited supply and that within the ACIP groups, children should receive highest priority.

[Mathematical modeling of the novel influenza A (H1N1) virus and evaluation of the epidemic response strategies in the Republic of Korea]

OBJECTIVES

The pandemic of novel influenza A (H1N1) virus has required decision-makers to act in the face of the substantial uncertainties. In this study, we evaluated the potential impact of the pandemic response strategies in the Republic of Korea using a mathematical model.

METHODS

We developed a deterministic model of a pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in a structured population using the demographic data from the Korean population and the epidemiological feature of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009. To estimate the parameter values for the deterministic model, we used the available data from the previous studies on pandemic influenza. The pandemic response strategies of the Republic of Korea for novel influenza A (H1N1) virus such as school closure, mass vaccination (70% of population in 30 days), and a policy for anti-viral drug (treatment or prophylaxis) were applied to the deterministic model.

RESULTS

The effect of two-week school closure on the attack rate was low regardless of the timing of the intervention. The earlier vaccination showed the effect of greater delays in reaching the peak of outbreaks. When it was no vaccination, vaccination at initiation of outbreak, vaccination 90 days after the initiation of outbreak and vaccination at the epidemic peak point, the total number of clinical cases for 400 days were 20.8 million, 4.4 million, 4.7 million and 12.6 million, respectively. The pandemic response strategies of the Republic of Korea delayed the peak of outbreaks (about 40 days) and decreased the number of cumulative clinical cases (8 million).

CONCLUSIONS

Rapid vaccination was the most important factor to control the spread of pandemic influenza, and the response strategies of the Republic of Korea were shown to delay the spread of pandemic influenza in this deterministic model.

Transmission of novel influenza A(H1N1) in households with post-exposure antiviral prophylaxis

Background

Despite impressive advances in our understanding of the biology of novel influenza A(H1N1) virus, little is as yet known about its transmission efficiency in close contact places such as households, schools, and workplaces. These are widely believed to be key in supporting propagating spread, and it is therefore of importance to assess the transmission levels of the virus in such settings.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We estimate the transmissibility of novel influenza A(H1N1) in 47 households in the Netherlands using stochastic epidemic models. All households contained a laboratory confirmed index case, and antiviral drugs (oseltamivir) were given to both the index case and other households members within 24 hours after detection of the index case. Among the 109 household contacts there were 9 secondary infections in 7 households. The overall estimated secondary attack rate is low (0.075, 95%CI: 0.037–0.13). There is statistical evidence indicating that older persons are less susceptible to infection than younger persons (relative susceptibility of older persons: 0.11, 95%CI: 0.024–0.43. Notably, the secondary attack rate from an older to a younger person is 0.35 (95%CI: 0.14–0.61) when using an age classification of ≤12 versus >12 years, and 0.28 (95%CI: 0.12–0.50) when using an age classification of ≤18 versus >18 years.

Conclusions/Significance

Our results indicate that the overall household transmission levels of novel influenza A(H1N1) in antiviral-treated households were low in the early stage of the epidemic. The relatively high rate of adult-to-child transmission indicates that control measures focused on this transmission route will be most effective in minimizing the total number of infections.

Analytical performance determination and clinical validation of the novel Roche RealTime Ready Influenza A/H1N1 Detection Set

The emergence of a novel pandemic human strain of influenza A (H1N1/09) virus in April 2009 has demonstrated the need for well-validated diagnostic tests that are broadly applicable, rapid, sensitive, and specific. The analytical performance and clinical validity of results generated with the novel Roche RealTime Ready Influenza A/H1N1 Detection Set using the LightCycler 2.0 instrument were characterized. Analytical performance was assessed by processing respiratory samples spiked with H1N1/09 and seasonal influenza A virus, a set of seasonal influenza A virus subtypes, and samples containing common viral and bacterial respiratory pathogens. The clinical validity of results was assessed in comparison to other assays by analyzing 359 specimens at three clinical sites and one reference laboratory. Direct sequencing was used to resolve samples with discrepant results. The assay detected virus concentrations down to <50 RNA copies per reverse transcription (RT)-quantitative PCR (qPCR). Various influenza A virus subtypes were covered. The analytical specificity was 100%. High clinical validity was demonstrated by the 99% positive agreement between seasonal influenza A viruses, 98% positive agreement between H1N1/09 viruses, and 88% agreement between negative results. The analytical sensitivity was compared to those of three other RT-qPCR assays and was found to be equivalent. The novel Roche RealTime Ready Influenza A/H1N1 Detection Set can be utilized on the widely used LightCycler platform. We demonstrate its usefulness for the rapid detection and surveillance of pandemic H1N1/09 influenza A virus infections.

Seasonal influenza vaccine provides priming for A/H1N1 immunization

Mass vaccination against the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza virus, with different vaccine formulations, is being implemented globally. Because of the urgency with which the vaccine has been prepared, little information has been gathered on variables that influence the effectiveness of the vaccine. Specifically, it is not clear whether priming by previous infection with or vaccination against seasonal influenza affects the response to the vaccine. Similarly, the role of vaccine adjuvants in vaccine response is not known. To address these questions, we injected ferrets with seasonal influenza vaccine and then vaccinated with 2009 A/H1N1 vaccine with or without the oil-in-water adjuvant MF59. The results show that the seasonal flu vaccine, although it did not induce functional antibodies against the 2009 A/H1N1 virus, provided immunological priming and allowed production of protective antibodies to 2009 A/H1N1 after one dose of 2009 A/H1N1 vaccine. The vaccine given without adjuvant significantly reduced viral load in the lungs but did not protect from infection. Only the vaccine with adjuvant completely prevented both pulmonary and nasal infection.

Genealogy with seasonality, the basic reproduction number, and the influenza pandemic

The basic reproduction number R (0) has been used in population biology, especially in epidemiology, for several decades. But a suitable definition in the case of models with periodic coefficients was given only in recent years. The definition involves the spectral radius of an integral operator. As in the study of structured epidemic models in a constant environment, there is a need to emphasize the biological meaning of this spectral radius. In this paper we show that R (0) for periodic models is still an asymptotic per generation growth rate. We also emphasize the difference between this theoretical R (0) for periodic models and the "reproduction number" obtained by fitting an exponential to the beginning of an epidemic curve. This difference has been overlooked in recent studies of the H1N1 influenza pandemic.

Travel and age of influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus infection

Age distribution of 4,986 cases of influenza A (H1N1) 2009 in Japan was analyzed. Cases with a travel history within 10 days preceding the illness onset were significantly older than indigenous cases (p < 0.01) reflecting age-specific travel patterns. Border controls should account for the high frequency of infection among adults.

[The heart in viral infections]

Between 10 and 20% of patients with histologically proven inflammatory disease of the heart muscle develop a chronic disorder after acute myocarditis which results in dilated cardiomyopathy with increasing cardiac insufficiency. Viral infections are a frequent cause of inflammatory heart muscle diseases and thus also responsible for myocardial damage in the initial phase. In the past, evidence for enterovirus, adenovirus, and cytomegalovirus was in the focus of attention. In the meantime, "new" cardiotropic pathogens such as parvovirus B19, Epstein-Barr virus, and human herpesvirus 6 have been detected in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy with and without inflammation. Their persistence in the myocardium correlates with a decline in pumping capability within 6 months. While the virus is still being eliminated, the second phase of the disease begins, which is characterized by autoimmune phenomena and often a cardiac inflammatory response which likewise correlates with a worsening prognosis. The transition to the third and final phase with development of dilated cardiomyopathy occurs gradually and can take years. The goal of every diagnostic and therapeutic intervention must be to eradicate the virus and eliminate the inflammatory response to prevent the disease from progressing to terminal cardiac insufficiency.

Cytotoxic T lymphocytes established by seasonal human influenza cross-react against 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus

While few children and young adults have cross-protective antibodies to the pandemic H1N1 2009 (pdmH1N1) virus, the illness remains mild. The biological reasons for these epidemiological observations are unclear. In this study, we demonstrate that the bulk memory cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs) established by seasonal influenza viruses from healthy individuals who have not been exposed to pdmH1N1 can directly lyse pdmH1N1-infected target cells and produce gamma interferon (IFN-gamma) and tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-alpha). Using influenza A virus matrix protein 1 (M1(58-66)) epitope-specific CTLs isolated from healthy HLA-A2(+) individuals, we further found that M1(58-66) epitope-specific CTLs efficiently killed both M1(58-66) peptide-pulsed and pdmH1N1-infected target cells ex vivo. These M1(58-66)-specific CTLs showed an effector memory phenotype and expressed CXCR3 and CCR5 chemokine receptors. Of 94 influenza A virus CD8 T-cell epitopes obtained from the Immune Epitope Database (IEDB), 17 epitopes are conserved in pdmH1N1, and more than half of these conserved epitopes are derived from M1 protein. In addition, 65% (11/17) of these epitopes were 100% conserved in seasonal influenza vaccine H1N1 strains during the last 20 years. Importantly, seasonal influenza vaccination could expand the functional M1(58-66) epitope-specific CTLs in 20% (4/20) of HLA-A2(+) individuals. Our results indicated that memory CTLs established by seasonal influenza A viruses or vaccines had cross-reactivity against pdmH1N1. These might explain, at least in part, the unexpected mild pdmH1N1 illness in the community and also might provide some valuable insights for the future design of broadly protective vaccines to prevent influenza, especially pandemic influenza.

Immunogenicity and safety of AS03-adjuvanted 2009 influenza A H1N1 vaccine in children 6-35 months

We report on the evaluation of the immunogenicity and reactogenicity/safety of AS03-adjuvanted vaccine against pandemic influenza A/H1N1/2009 in young children. In this open-label, randomized study, 157 healthy children aged 6-35 months received two doses (21 days apart) of split-virion inactivated A/California/7/2009 H1N1 vaccine containing either (i) 1.9microg hemagglutinin (HA) and AS03(B) (5.93mg tocopherol) (N=104) or (ii) 3.75mug HA and AS03(A) (11.86mg tocopherol) (N=53). At 21 days following the first dose of AS03(B)-adjuvanted vaccine (1.9microg HA) the percentage of children with hemagglutination-inhibition titers of >or=40 against the vaccine strain rose from 3.0% before vaccination to 100%. The seroconversion rate was 99% and the geometric mean titer (GMT) increased from 6 to 313. After the second dose the GMT increased further to 2008. The higher dose AS03(A)-adjuvanted 3.75microg HA vaccine did not further increase the immune response. Solicited symptoms reported within 7 days following vaccination were mainly mild to moderate. After the first dose of AS03(B)-adjuvanted vaccine (1.9microg HA) the most common solicited symptoms were pain at the injection site (35.6%) and irritability (31.7%). Fever (axillary >or=37.5 degrees C) was reported with an incidence of 20.2%. After the second dose reactogenicity tended to increase (injection site pain: 41.3%; irritability: 46.2%; fever >or=37.5 degrees C: 67.3%). Spontaneously reported adverse events with an intensity that prevented normal activities were documented for 2.9-6.7% of doses with only one event (vomiting) considered related to vaccination. There was one serious adverse event reported in the AS03(A)-adjuvanted 3.75microg HA vaccine group (traumatic brain injury) which was not considered as related to vaccination. In conclusion, these data suggest that a first dose of AS03(B)-adjuvanted A/H1N1/2009 vaccine containing 1.9microg HA in children 6-35 months old is highly immunogenic and that the overall reactogenicity profile is acceptable although reactions including fever tend to increase after a second dose.

Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza community transmission was established in one Australian state when the virus was first identified in North America

Background

In mid-June 2009 the State of Victoria in Australia appeared to have the highest notification rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza in the world. We hypothesise that this was because community transmission of pandemic influenza was already well established in Victoria at the time testing for the novel virus commenced. In contrast, this was not true for the pandemic in other parts of Australia, including Western Australia (WA).

Methods

We used data from detailed case follow-up of patients with confirmed infection in Victoria and WA to demonstrate the difference in the pandemic curve in two Australian states on opposite sides of the continent. We modelled the pandemic in both states, using a susceptible-infected-removed model with Bayesian inference accounting for imported cases.

Results

Epidemic transmission occurred earlier in Victoria and later in WA. Only 5% of the first 100 Victorian cases were not locally acquired and three of these were brothers in one family. By contrast, 53% of the first 102 cases in WA were associated with importation from Victoria. Using plausible model input data, estimation of the effective reproductive number for the Victorian epidemic required us to invoke an earlier date for commencement of transmission to explain the observed data. This was not required in modelling the epidemic in WA.

Conclusion

Strong circumstantial evidence, supported by modelling, suggests community transmission of pandemic influenza was well established in Victoria, but not in WA, at the time testing for the novel virus commenced in Australia. The virus is likely to have entered Victoria and already become established around the time it was first identified in the US and Mexico.