Impacts of warming on tropical lowland rainforests

Neogene origins and implied warmth tolerance of Amazon tree species

Tropical rain forest has been a persistent feature in South America for at least 55 million years. The future of the contemporary Amazon forest is uncertain, however, as the region is entering conditions with no past analogue, combining rapidly increasing air temperatures, high atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, possible extreme droughts, and extensive removal and modification by humans. Given the long-term Cenozoic cooling trend, it is unknown whether Amazon forests can tolerate air temperature increases, with suggestions that lowland forests lack warm-adapted taxa, leading to inevitable species losses. In response to this uncertainty, we posit a simple hypothesis: the older the age of a species prior to the Pleistocene, the warmer the climate it has previously survived, with Pliocene (2.6–5 Ma) and late-Miocene (8–10 Ma) air temperature across Amazonia being similar to 2100 temperature projections under low and high carbon emission scenarios, respectively. Using comparative phylogeographic analyses, we show that 9 of 12 widespread Amazon tree species have Pliocene or earlier lineages (>2.6 Ma), with seven dating from the Miocene (>5.6 Ma) and three >8 Ma. The remarkably old age of these species suggest that Amazon forests passed through warmth similar to 2100 levels and that, in the absence of other major environmental changes, near-term high temperature-induced mass species extinction is unlikely.

Photosynthetic thermotolerance of woody savanna species in China is correlated with leaf life span

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Photosynthetic thermotolerance (PT) is important for plant survival in tropical and sub-tropical savannas. However, little is known about thermotolerance of tropical and sub-tropical wild plants and its association with leaf phenology and persistence. Longer-lived leaves of savanna plants may experience a higher risk of heat stress. Foliar Ca is related to cell integrity of leaves under stresses. In this study it is hypothesized that (1) species with leaf flushing in the hot-dry season have greater PT than those with leaf flushing in the rainy season; and (2) PT correlates positively with leaf life span, leaf mass per unit area (LMA) and foliar Ca concentration ([Ca]) across woody savanna species.

METHODS

The temperature-dependent increase in minimum fluorescence was measured to assess PT, together with leaf dynamics, LMA and [Ca] for a total of 24 woody species differing in leaf flushing time in a valley-type savanna in south-west China.

KEY RESULTS

The PT of the woody savanna species with leaf flushing in the hot-dry season was greater than that of those with leaf flushing in the rainy season. Thermotolerance was positively associated with leaf life span and [Ca] for all species irrespective of the time of flushing. The associations of PT with leaf life span and [Ca] were evolutionarily correlated. Thermotolerance was, however, independent of LMA.

CONCLUSIONS

Chinese savanna woody species are adapted to hot-dry habitats. However, the current maximum leaf temperature during extreme heat stress (44·3 °C) is close to the critical temperature of photosystem II (45·2 °C); future global warming may increase the risk of heat damage to the photosynthetic apparatus of Chinese savanna species.

Predicting organismal vulnerability to climate warming: roles of behaviour, physiology and adaptation

A recently developed integrative framework proposes that the vulnerability of a species to environmental change depends on the species' exposure and sensitivity to environmental change, its resilience to perturbations and its potential to adapt to change. These vulnerability criteria require behavioural, physiological and genetic data. With this information in hand, biologists can predict organisms most at risk from environmental change. Biologists and managers can then target organisms and habitats most at risk. Unfortunately, the required data (e.g. optimal physiological temperatures) are rarely available. Here, we evaluate the reliability of potential proxies (e.g. critical temperatures) that are often available for some groups. Several proxies for ectotherms are promising, but analogous ones for endotherms are lacking. We also develop a simple graphical model of how behavioural thermoregulation, acclimation and adaptation may interact to influence vulnerability over time. After considering this model together with the proxies available for physiological sensitivity to climate change, we conclude that ectotherms sharing vulnerability traits seem concentrated in lowland tropical forests. Their vulnerability may be exacerbated by negative biotic interactions. Whether tropical forest (or other) species can adapt to warming environments is unclear, as genetic and selective data are scant. Nevertheless, the prospects for tropical forest ectotherms appear grim.

Variability in solar radiation and temperature explains observed patterns and trends in tree growth rates across four tropical forests

The response of tropical forests to global climate variability and change remains poorly understood. Results from long-term studies of permanent forest plots have reported different, and in some cases opposing trends in tropical forest dynamics. In this study, we examined changes in tree growth rates at four long-term permanent tropical forest research plots in relation to variation in solar radiation, temperature and precipitation. Temporal variation in the stand-level growth rates measured at five-year intervals was found to be positively correlated with variation in incoming solar radiation and negatively related to temporal variation in night-time temperatures. Taken alone, neither solar radiation variability nor the effects of night-time temperatures can account for the observed temporal variation in tree growth rates across sites, but when considered together, these two climate variables account for most of the observed temporal variability in tree growth rates. Further analysis indicates that the stand-level response is primarily driven by the responses of smaller-sized trees (less than 20 cm in diameter). The combined temperature and radiation responses identified in this study provide a potential explanation for the conflicting patterns in tree growth rates found in previous studies.

Consequences of changing rainfall for fungal pathogen-induced mortality in tropical tree seedlings

Most general circulation models predict that most tropical forests will experience lower and less frequent rainfall in future as a result of climate change, which may reduce the capacity of fungal pathogens to drive density-dependent tree mortality. This is potentially significant because fungal pathogens are thought to play a key role in promoting and structuring plant diversity in tropical forests through the Janzen-Connell mechanism. Therefore, we hypothesize that the drying of tropical forests will negatively impact species coexistence. To test one prediction of this hypothesis, we imposed experimental watering regimes on the seedlings of a tropical tree, Pleradenophora longicuspis, and measured mortality induced by fungal pathogens under shade house conditions. The frequency of watering had a strong impact on survival. Seedlings watered daily experienced significantly higher mortality than those watered every three or every six days, while increasing the volume of water applied also led to increased mortality, although this relationship was less pronounced. These results suggest that the capacity of fungal pathogens to drive density-dependent mortality may be reduced in drier climates and when rainfall is less frequent, with potential implications for the diversity enhancing Janzen-Connell mechanism.

Tropical forest carbon balance in a warmer world: a critical review spanning microbial- to ecosystem-scale processes

Tropical forests play a major role in regulating global carbon (C) fluxes and stocks, and even small changes to C cycling in this productive biome could dramatically affect atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2) ) concentrations. Temperature is expected to increase over all land surfaces in the future, yet we have a surprisingly poor understanding of how tropical forests will respond to this significant climatic change. Here we present a contemporary synthesis of the existing data and what they suggest about how tropical forests will respond to increasing temperatures. Our goals were to: (i) determine whether there is enough evidence to support the conclusion that increased temperature will affect tropical forest C balance; (ii) if there is sufficient evidence, determine what direction this effect will take; and, (iii) establish what steps should to be taken to resolve the uncertainties surrounding tropical forest responses to increasing temperatures. We approach these questions from a mass-balance perspective and therefore focus primarily on the effects of temperature on inputs and outputs of C, spanning microbial- to ecosystem-scale responses. We found that, while there is the strong potential for temperature to affect processes related to C cycling and storage in tropical forests, a notable lack of data combined with the physical, biological and chemical diversity of the forests themselves make it difficult to resolve this issue with certainty. We suggest a variety of experimental approaches that could help elucidate how tropical forests will respond to warming, including large-scale in situ manipulation experiments, longer term field experiments, the incorporation of a range of scales in the investigation of warming effects (both spatial and temporal), as well as the inclusion of a diversity of tropical forest sites. Finally, we highlight areas of tropical forest research where notably few data are available, including temperature effects on: nutrient cycling, heterotrophic versus autotrophic respiration, thermal acclimation versus substrate limitation of plant and microbial communities, below-ground C allocation, species composition (plant and microbial), and the hydraulic architecture of roots. Whether or not tropical forests will become a source or a sink of C in a warmer world remains highly uncertain. Given the importance of these ecosystems to the global C budget, resolving this uncertainty is a primary research priority.