Science for a wilder Anthropocene: Synthesis and future directions for trophic rewilding research

Adaptive Networks for Restoration Ecology

The urgent need to restore biodiversity and ecosystem functioning challenges ecology as a predictive science. Restoration ecology would benefit from evolutionary principles embedded within a framework that combines adaptive network models and the phylogenetic structure of ecological interactions. Adaptive network models capture feedbacks between trait evolution, species abundances, and interactions to explain resilience and functional diversity within communities. Phylogenetically-structured network data, increasingly available via next-generation sequencing, inform constraints affecting interaction rewiring. Combined, these approaches can predict eco-evolutionary changes triggered by community manipulation practices, such as translocations and eradications of invasive species. We discuss theoretical and methodological opportunities to bridge network models and data from restoration projects and propose how this can be applied to the functional restoration of ecological interactions.

Rewilding the world's large carnivores

Earth's terrestrial large carnivores form a highly endangered group of species with unique conservation challenges. The majority of these species have experienced major geographical range contractions, which puts many of them at high risk of extinction or of becoming ecologically ineffective. As a result of these range contractions and the associated loss of intact predator guilds, the ecological effects of these species are now far less widespread and common, with inevitable consequences for ecosystem function. Rewilding-which includes reintroducing species into portions of their former ranges-is an important carnivore conservation tool and means for restoring top-down ecological regulation. We conducted a global analysis of potential reintroduction areas. We first considered protected areas where one or more large carnivore species have been extirpated, identifying a total of 130 protected areas that may be most suitable for carnivore reintroduction. These protected areas include sites in every major world region, and are most commonly found in Mongolia (n = 13), Canada (n = 11), Thailand (n = 9), Namibia (n = 6), Indonesia (n = 6) and Australia (n = 6). We considered the sizes of protected areas, their levels of protection, the extent of human impacts within and around the protected areas, and the status of prey species in the protected areas. Finally, we used the 'last of the wild' approach to identify contiguous low human footprint regions within the former ranges of each species, identifying an additional 150 areas which could be the focus of conservation efforts to create conditions conducive to reintroductions. These low footprint regions were most commonly found in the USA (n = 14), Russia (n = 14), Canada (n = 10), China (n = 9) and Mauritania (n = 8). Together, our results show the global-scale potential for carnivore rewilding projects to both conserve these species and provide critical ecological and social benefits.

Snub-nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus): potential distribution and its implication for conservation

Many threatened species have undergone range retraction, and are confined to small fragmented populations. To increase their survival prospects, it is necessary to find suitable habitat outside their current range, to increase and interconnect populations. Species distribution models may be used to this purpose and can be an important part of the conservation strategies. One pitfall is that such mapping will typically assume that the current distribution represents the optimal habitat, which may not be the case for threatened species. Here, we use maximum entropy modelling (Maxent) and rectilinear bioclimatic envelope modelling with current and historical distribution data, together with the location of protected areas, and environmental and anthropogenic variables, to answer three key questions for the conservation of Rhinopithecus, a highly endangered genus of primates consisting of five species of which three are endemic to China, one is endemic to China and Myanmar and one is endemic to Vietnam; Which environmental variables best predict the distribution? To what extent is Rhinopithecus living in an anthropogenically truncated niche space? What is the genus’ potential distribution in the region? Mean temperature of coldest and warmest quarter together with annual precipitation and precipitation during the driest quarter were the variables that best explained Rhinopithecus’ distribution. The historical records were generally in warmer and wetter areas and in lower elevation than the current distribution, strongly suggesting that Rhinopithecus today survives in an anthropogenic truncated niche space. There is 305,800–319,325 km² of climatic suitable area within protected areas in China, of which 96,525–100,275 km² and 17,175–17,550 km² have tree cover above 50 and 75%, respectively. The models also show that the area predicted as climatic suitable using Maxent was 72–89% larger when historical records were included. Our results emphasise the importance of considering historical records when assessing restoration potential and show that there is high potential for restoring Rhinopithecus to parts of its former range.

The consequences of replacing wildlife with livestock in Africa

The extirpation of native wildlife species and widespread establishment of livestock farming has dramatically distorted large mammal herbivore communities across the globe. Ecological theory suggests that these shifts in the form and the intensity of herbivory have had substantial impacts on a range of ecosystem processes, but for most ecosystems it is impossible to quantify these changes accurately. We address these challenges using species-level biomass data from sub-Saharan Africa for both present day and reconstructed historical herbivore communities. Our analyses reveal pronounced herbivore biomass losses in wetter areas and substantial biomass increases and functional type turnover in arid regions. Fire prevalence is likely to have been altered over vast areas where grazer biomass has transitioned to above or below the threshold at which grass fuel reduction can suppress fire. Overall, shifts in the functional composition of herbivore communities promote an expansion of woody cover. Total herbivore methane emissions have more than doubled, but lateral nutrient diffusion capacity is below 5% of past levels. The release of fundamental ecological constraints on herbivore communities in arid regions appears to pose greater threats to ecosystem function than do biomass losses in mesic regions, where fire remains the major consumer.

Movers and Stayers: Novel Assemblages in Changing Environments

Increased attention to species movement in response to environmental change highlights the need to consider changes in species distributions and altered biological assemblages. Such changes are well known from paleoecological studies, but have accelerated with ongoing pervasive human influence. In addition to species that move, some species will stay put, leading to an array of novel interactions. Species show a variety of responses that can allow movement or persistence. Conservation and restoration actions have traditionally focused on maintaining or returning species in particular places, but increasingly also include interventions that facilitate movement. Approaches are required that incorporate the fluidity of biotic assemblages into the goals set and interventions deployed.

Temporal Variation in Trophic Cascades

The trophic cascade has emerged as a key paradigm in ecology. Although ecologists have made progress in understanding spatial variation in the strength of trophic cascades, temporal variation remains relatively unexplored. Our review suggests that strong trophic cascades are often transient, appearing when ecological conditions support high consumer abundance and rapidly growing, highly edible prey. Persistent top-down control is expected to decay over time in the absence of external drivers, as strong top-down control favors the emergence of better-defended resources. Temporal shifts in cascade strength—including those driven by contemporary global change—can either stabilize or destabilize ecological communities. We suggest that a more temporally explicit approach can improve our ability to explain the drivers of trophic cascades and predict the impact of changing cascade strength on community dynamics.

Ecological and evolutionary legacy of megafauna extinctions

For hundreds of millions of years, large vertebrates (megafauna) have inhabited most of the ecosystems on our planet. During the late Quaternary, notably during the Late Pleistocene and the early Holocene, Earth experienced a rapid extinction of large, terrestrial vertebrates. While much attention has been paid to understanding the causes of this massive megafauna extinction, less attention has been given to understanding the impacts of loss of megafauna on other organisms with whom they interacted. In this review, we discuss how the loss of megafauna disrupted and reshaped ecological interactions, and explore the ecological consequences of the ongoing decline of large vertebrates. Numerous late Quaternary extinct species of predators, parasites, commensals and mutualistic partners were associated with megafauna and were probably lost due to their strict dependence upon them (co-extinctions). Moreover, many extant species have megafauna-adapted traits that provided evolutionary benefits under past megafauna-rich conditions, but are now of no or limited use (anachronisms). Morphological evolution and behavioural changes allowed some of these species partially to overcome the absence of megafauna. Although the extinction of megafauna led to a number of co-extinction events, several species that likely co-evolved with megafauna established new interactions with humans and their domestic animals. Species that were highly specialized in interactions with megafauna, such as large predators, specialized parasites, and large commensalists (e.g. scavengers, dung beetles), and could not adapt to new hosts or prey were more likely to die out. Partners that were less megafauna dependent persisted because of behavioural plasticity or by shifting their dependency to humans via domestication, facilitation or pathogen spill-over, or through interactions with domestic megafauna. We argue that the ongoing extinction of the extant megafauna in the Anthropocene will catalyse another wave of co-extinctions due to the enormous diversity of key ecological interactions and functional roles provided by the megafauna.

Credit of ecological interactions: A new conceptual framework to support conservation in a defaunated world

As defaunation spreads through the world, there is an urgent need for restoring ecological interactions, thus assuring ecosystem processes. Here, we define the new concept of credit of ecological interactions, as the number of interactions that can be restored in a focal area by species colonization or reintroduction. We also define rewiring time, as the time span until all the links that build the credit of ecological interactions of a focal area have become functional again. We expect that the credit will be gradually cashed following refaunation in rates that are proportional to (1) the abundance of the reintroduced species (that is expected to increase in time since release), (2) the abundance of the local species that interact with them, and (3) the traits of reintroduced species. We illustrated this approach using a theoretical model and an empirical case study where the credit of ecological interactions was estimated. This new conceptual framework is useful for setting reintroduction priorities and for evaluating the success of conservation initiatives that aim to restore ecosystem services.

Rapid and direct recoveries of predators and prey through synchronized ecosystem management

One of the twenty-first century's greatest environmental challenges is to recover and restore species, habitats and ecosystems. The decision about how to initiate restoration is best-informed by an understanding of the linkages between ecosystem components and, given these linkages, an appreciation of the consequences of choosing to recover one ecosystem component before another. However, it remains difficult to predict how the sequence of species' recoveries within food webs influences the speed and trajectory of restoration, and what that means for human well-being. Here, we develop theory to consider the ecological and social implications of synchronous versus sequential (species-by-species) recovery in the context of exploited food webs. A dynamical systems model demonstrates that synchronous recovery of predators and prey is almost always more efficient than sequential recovery. Compared with sequential recovery, synchronous recovery can be twice as fast and produce transient fluctuations of much lower amplitude. A predator-first strategy is particularly slow because it counterproductively suppresses prey recovery. An analysis of real-world predator-prey recoveries shows that synchronous and sequential recoveries are similarly common, suggesting that current practices are not ideal. We highlight policy tools that can facilitate swift and steady recovery of ecosystem structure, function and associated services.

The changing contribution of top-down and bottom-up limitation of mesopredators during 220 years of land use and climate change

Apex predators may buffer bottom-up driven ecosystem change, as top-down suppression may dampen herbivore and mesopredator responses to increased resource availability. However, theory suggests that for this buffering capacity to be realized, the equilibrium abundance of apex predators must increase. This raises the question: will apex predators maintain herbivore/mesopredator limitation, if bottom-up change relaxes resource constraints? Here, we explore changes in mesopredator (red fox Vulpes vulpes) abundance over 220 years in response to eradication and recovery of an apex predator (Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx), and changes in land use and climate which are linked to resource availability. A three-step approach was used. First, recent data from Finland and Sweden were modelled to estimate linear effects of lynx density, land use and winter temperature on fox density. Second, lynx density, land use and winter temperature was estimated in a 22 650 km² focal area in boreal and boreo-nemoral Sweden in the years 1830, 1920, 2010 and 2050. Third, the models and estimates were used to project historic and future fox densities in the focal area. Projected fox density was lowest in 1830 when lynx density was high, winters cold and the proportion of cropland low. Fox density peaked in 1920 due to lynx eradication, a mesopredator release boosted by favourable bottom-up changes - milder winters and cropland expansion. By 2010, lynx recolonization had reduced fox density, but it remained higher than in 1830, partly due to the bottom-up changes. Comparing 1830 to 2010, the contribution of top-down limitation decreased, while environment enrichment relaxed bottom-up limitation. Future scenarios indicated that by 2050, lynx density would have to increase by 79% to compensate for a projected climate-driven increase in fox density. We highlight that although top-down limitation in theory can buffer bottom-up change, this requires compensatory changes in apex predator abundance. Hence apex predator recolonization/recovery to historical levels would not be sufficient to compensate for widespread changes in climate and land use, which have relaxed the resource constraints for many herbivores and mesopredators. Variation in bottom-up conditions may also contribute to context dependence in apex predator effects.

Megafauna and ecosystem function from the Pleistocene to the Anthropocene

Large herbivores and carnivores (the megafauna) have been in a state of decline and extinction since the Late Pleistocene, both on land and more recently in the oceans. Much has been written on the timing and causes of these declines, but only recently has scientific attention focused on the consequences of these declines for ecosystem function. Here, we review progress in our understanding of how megafauna affect ecosystem physical and trophic structure, species composition, biogeochemistry, and climate, drawing on special features of PNAS and Ecography that have been published as a result of an international workshop on this topic held in Oxford in 2014. Insights emerging from this work have consequences for our understanding of changes in biosphere function since the Late Pleistocene and of the functioning of contemporary ecosystems, as well as offering a rationale and framework for scientifically informed restoration of megafaunal function where possible and appropriate.

Restoration, Reintroduction, and Rewilding in a Changing World

The increasing abandonment of marginal land creates new opportunities for restoration, reintroduction, and rewilding, but what do these terms mean in a rapidly and irreversibly changing world? The 're' prefix means 'back', but it is becoming clear that the traditional use of past ecosystems as targets and criteria for success must be replaced by an orientation towards an uncertain future. Current opinions in restoration and reintroduction biology range from a defense of traditional definitions, with some modifications, to acceptance of more radical responses, including assisted migration, taxon substitution, de-extinction, and genetic modification. Rewilding attempts to minimize sustained intervention, but this hands-off approach is also threatened by rapid environmental change.

Combining paleo-data and modern exclosure experiments to assess the impact of megafauna extinctions on woody vegetation

Until recently in Earth history, very large herbivores (mammoths, ground sloths, diprotodons, and many others) occurred in most of the World's terrestrial ecosystems, but the majority have gone extinct as part of the late-Quaternary extinctions. How has this large-scale removal of large herbivores affected landscape structure and ecosystem functioning? In this review, we combine paleo-data with information from modern exclosure experiments to assess the impact of large herbivores (and their disappearance) on woody species, landscape structure, and ecosystem functions. In modern landscapes characterized by intense herbivory, woody plants can persist by defending themselves or by association with defended species, can persist by growing in places that are physically inaccessible to herbivores, or can persist where high predator activity limits foraging by herbivores. At the landscape scale, different herbivore densities and assemblages may result in dynamic gradients in woody cover. The late-Quaternary extinctions were natural experiments in large-herbivore removal; the paleoecological record shows evidence of widespread changes in community composition and ecosystem structure and function, consistent with modern exclosure experiments. We propose a conceptual framework that describes the impact of large herbivores on woody plant abundance mediated by herbivore diversity and density, predicting that herbivore suppression of woody plants is strongest where herbivore diversity is high. We conclude that the decline of large herbivores induces major alterations in landscape structure and ecosystem functions.