A road map to control malaria, tuberculosis, and human immunodeficiency virus/AIDS

A predictive scoring instrument for tuberculosis lost to follow-up outcome

BACKGROUND

Adherence to tuberculosis (TB) treatment is troublesome, due to long therapy duration, quick therapeutic response which allows the patient to disregard about the rest of their treatment and the lack of motivation on behalf of the patient for improved. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a scoring system to predict the probability of lost to follow-up outcome in TB patients as a way to identify patients suitable for directly observed treatments (DOT) and other interventions to improve adherence.

METHODS

Two prospective cohorts, were used to develop and validate a logistic regression model. A scoring system was constructed, based on the coefficients of factors associated with a lost to follow-up outcome. The probability of lost to follow-up outcome associated with each score was calculated. Predictions in both cohorts were tested using receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC).

RESULTS

The best model to predict lost to follow-up outcome included the following characteristics: immigration (1 point value), living alone (1 point) or in an institution (2 points), previous anti-TB treatment (2 points), poor patient understanding (2 points), intravenous drugs use (IDU) (4 points) or unknown IDU status (1 point). Scores of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 points were associated with a lost to follow-up probability of 2,2% 5,4% 9,9%, 16,4%, 15%, and 28%, respectively. The ROC curve for the validation group demonstrated a good fit (AUC: 0,67 [95% CI; 0,65-0,70]).

CONCLUSION

This model has a good capacity to predict a lost to follow-up outcome. Its use could help TB Programs to determine which patients are good candidates for DOT and other strategies to improve TB treatment adherence.

Global health: Integrating national laboratory health systems and services in resource-limited settings

Laboratory systems worldwide are challenged not only by the need to compete for scarce resources with other sections of national health care programmes, but also with the lack of understanding of the critical role that laboratories play in the accurate diagnosis and monitoring of patients suffering from high-burdens of disease. An effective approach to establishing cost-effective laboratory systems that provide rapid and accurate test results for optimal impact on patient care is to move away from disease-specific programmes and establish integrated laboratory services. An integrated laboratory network provides all primary diagnostic services needed for care and treatment without requiring patients to go to different laboratory facilities for specific tests. Such a network focuses on providing quality-assured basic laboratory testing through the use of common specimen collection, reporting and diagnostic platforms that can be used across diseases. An integrated laboratory system also provides specimen transport to specialised laboratories and an environment conducive to the introduction and use of new and more complex technologies that would benefit the patient population and public health systems as a whole. As such, this article described various strategies for, and practical examples of, the successful integration of laboratory services.

Breast cancer in developing countries: opportunities for improved survival

Breast cancer survival in the USA has continually improved over the last six decades and has largely been accredited to the use of mammography, advanced surgical procedures, and adjuvant therapies. Data indicate, however, that there were substantial improvements in survival in the USA even prior to these technological and diagnostic advances, suggesting important opportunities for early detection and treatment in low- and middle-income countries where these options are often unavailable and/or unaffordable. Thus, while continuing to strive for increased access to more advanced technology, improving survival in these settings should be more immediately achievable through increased awareness of breast cancer and of the potential for successful treatment, a high-quality primary care system without economic or cultural barriers to access, and a well-functioning referral system for basic surgical and hormonal treatment.

Decreases in community viral load are accompanied by reductions in new HIV infections in San Francisco

Background

At the individual level, higher HIV viral load predicts sexual transmission risk. We evaluated San Francisco's community viral load (CVL) as a population level marker of HIV transmission risk. We hypothesized that the decrease in CVL in San Francisco from 2004–2008, corresponding with increased rates of HIV testing, antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage and effectiveness, and population-level virologic suppression, would be associated with a reduction in new HIV infections.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used San Francisco's HIV/AIDS surveillance system to examine the trends in CVL. Mean CVL was calculated as the mean of the most recent viral load of all reported HIV-positive individuals in a particular community. Total CVL was defined as the sum of the most recent viral loads of all HIV-positive individuals in a particular community. We used Poisson models with robust standard errors to assess the relationships between the mean and total CVL and the primary outcome: annual numbers of newly diagnosed HIV cases. Both mean and total CVL decreased from 2004–2008 and were accompanied by decreases in new HIV diagnoses from 798 (2004) to 434 (2008). The mean (p = 0.003) and total CVL (p = 0.002) were significantly associated with new HIV cases from 2004–2008.

Conclusions/Significance

Reductions in CVL are associated with decreased HIV infections. Results suggest that wide-scale ART could reduce HIV transmission at the population level. Because CVL is temporally upstream of new HIV infections, jurisdictions should consider adding CVL to routine HIV surveillance to track the epidemic, allocate resources, and to evaluate the effectiveness of HIV prevention and treatment efforts.