Effect of High-Dose Trivalent vs Standard-Dose Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccine on Mortality or Cardiopulmonary Hospitalization in Patients With High-risk Cardiovascular Disease: A Randomized Clinical Trial

The relative vaccine effectiveness of high-dose vs standard-dose influenza vaccines in preventing hospitalization and mortality: A meta-analysis of evidence from randomized trials

OBJECTIVES

To summarize current evidence of high-dose influenza vaccine (HD-IV) vs standard-dose (SD-IV) regarding severe clinical outcomes.

METHODS

A prespecified meta-analysis was conducted to assess relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) of HD-IV vs SD-IV in reducing the rates of (1) pneumonia and influenza (P&I) hospitalization, (2) all hospitalizations, and (3) all-cause death in adults ≥ 65 years in randomized controlled trials. Pooled effect sizes were estimated using fixed-effects models with the inverse variance method.

RESULTS

Five randomized trials were included encompassing 105,685 individuals. HD-IV vs SD-IV reduced P&I hospitalizations (rVE: 23.5 %, [95 %CI: 12.3 to 33.2]). HD-IV vs SD-IV also reduced rate of all-cause hospitalizations (rVE: 7.3 %, [95 %CI: 4.5 to 10.0]). No significant differences were observed in death rates (rVE = 1.6 % ([95 %CI: -2.0 to 5.0]) in HD-IV vs SD-IV. Sensitivity analyses omitting trials with participants sharing the same comorbidity, trials with ≥ 100 events, and random-effects models provided comparable estimates for all outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

HD-IV reduced the incidence of P&I and all-cause hospitalization vs SD-IV in adults ≥ 65 years in randomized trials, through no significant difference was observed in all-cause death rates. These findings, supported by evidence from several randomized studies, can benefit from replication in a fully powered, individually randomized trial.

Association of respiratory infections and the impact of vaccinations on cardiovascular diseases

Influenza, pneumococcal, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, and respiratory syncytial virus infections are important causes of high morbidity and mortality in the elderly. Beyond the burden of infectious diseases, they are also associated with several non-infectious complications like cardiovascular events. A growing body of evidence in prospective studies and meta-analyses has shown the impact of influenza and pneumococcal vaccines on types of cardiovascular outcomes in the general population. Influenza vaccination showed a potential benefit for primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular diseases across all ages. A reduced risk of cardiovascular events for individuals aged 65 years and older was associated with pneumococcal vaccination. Despite scientific evidence on the effectiveness, safety, and benefits of the vaccines and recommendations to vaccinate elderly patients and those with risk factors, vaccination rates remain sub-optimal in this population. Doubts about vaccine necessity or efficacy and concerns about possible adverse events in patients and physicians refer to delayed acceptance. Vaccination campaigns targeting increasing professional recommendations and public perceptions should be implemented in the coming years. The aim of this review paper is to summarize the effect of vaccination in the field of cardiovascular disease to achieve a higher vaccination rate in this patient population.

Effects of high-dose versus standard-dose quadrivalent influenza vaccine among patients with diabetes: A post-hoc analysis of the DANFLU-1 trial

AIM

High-dose quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV-HD) has been shown to be more effective than standard-dose (QIV-SD) in reducing influenza infection, but whether diabetes status affects relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) is unknown. We aimed to assess rVE on change in glycated haemoglobin [HbA1c (∆HbA1c)], incident diabetes, total all-cause hospitalizations (first + recurrent), and a composite of all-cause mortality and hospitalization for pneumonia or influenza.

METHODS

DANFLU-1 was a pragmatic, open-label trial randomizing adults (65-79 years) 1:1 to QIV-HD or QIV-SD during the 2021/22 influenza season. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate rVE against incident diabetes and the composite endpoint, negative binomial regression to estimate rVE against all-cause hospitalizations, and ANCOVA when assessing rVE against ∆HbA1c.

RESULTS

Of the 12 477 participants, 1162 (9.3%) had diabetes at baseline. QIV-HD, compared with QIV-SD, was associated with a reduction in the rate of all-cause hospitalizations irrespective of diabetes [overall: 647 vs. 742 events, incidence rate ratio (IRR): 0.87, 95% CI (0.76-0.99); diabetes: 93 vs. 118 events, IRR: 0.80, 95% CI (0.55-1.15); without diabetes: 554 vs. 624 events, IRR: 0.88, 95% CI (0.76-1.01), pinteraction = 0.62]. Among those with diabetes, QIV-HD was associated with a lower risk of the composite outcome [2 vs. 11 events, HR: 0.18, 95% CI (0.04-0.83)] but had no effect on ∆HbA1c; QIV-HD adjusted mean difference: ∆ + 0.2 mmol/mol, 95% CI (-0.9 to 1.2). QIV-HD did not affect the risk of incident diabetes [HR 1.18, 95% CI (0.94-1.47)].

CONCLUSIONS

In this post-hoc analysis, QIV-HD versus QIV-SD was associated with an increased rVE against the composite of all-cause death and hospitalization for pneumonia/influenza, and the all-cause hospitalization rate irrespective of diabetes status.

Trivalent and quadrivalent seasonal influenza vaccine in adults aged 60 and older: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

To compare the efficacy of influenza vaccines of any valency for adults 60 years and older.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Systematic review with network meta-analysis (NMA) of randomised controlled trials (RCTs). MEDLINE, EMBASE, JBI Evidence-Based Practice (EBP) Database, PsycINFO, and Cochrane Evidence -Based Medicine database were searched from inception to 20 June 20, 2022. Two reviewers screened, abstracted, and appraised articles (Cochrane Risk of Bias (ROB) 2.0 tool) independently. We assessed certainty of findings using Confidence in Network Meta-Analysis and Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations approaches. We performed random-effects meta-analysis and network meta-analysis (NMA), and estimated odds ratios (ORs) for dichotomous outcomes and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for count outcomes along with their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and prediction intervals.

PARTICIPANTS

Older adults (≥60 years old) receiving an influenza vaccine licensed in Canada or the USA (vs placebo, no vaccine, or any other licensed vaccine), at any dose.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Laboratory-confirmed influenza (LCI) and influenza-like illness (ILI). Secondary outcomes were the number of vascular adverse events, hospitalisation for acute respiratory infection (ARI) and ILI, inpatient hospitalisation, emergency room (ER) visit for ILI, outpatient visit, and mortality, among others.

RESULTS

We included 41 RCTs and 15 companion reports comprising 8 vaccine types and 206 032 participants. Vaccines may prevent LCI compared with placebo, with high-dose trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV3-HD) (NMA: 9 RCTs, 52 202 participants, OR 0.23, 95% confidence interval (CI) (0.11 to 0.51), low certainty of evidence) and recombinant influenza vaccine (RIV) (OR 0.25, 95%CI (0.08 to 0.73), low certainty of evidence) among the most efficacious vaccines. Standard dose trivalent IIV3 (IIV3-SD) may prevent ILI compared with placebo, but the result was imprecise (meta-analysis: 2 RCTs, 854 participants, OR 0.39, 95%CI (0.15 to 1.02), low certainty of evidence). Any HD was associated with prevention of ILI compared with placebo (NMA: 9 RCTs, 65 658 participants, OR 0.38, 95%CI (0.15 to 0.93)). Adjuvanted quadrivalent IIV (IIV4-Adj) may be associated with the least vascular adverse events, but the results were very uncertain (NMA: eight 8 RCTs, 57 677 participants, IRR 0.18, 95%CI (0.07 to 0.43), very low certainty of evidence). RIV on all-cause mortality may be comparable to placebo (NMA: 20 RCTs, 140 577 participants, OR 1.01, 95%CI (0.23 to 4.49), low certainty of evidence).

CONCLUSIONS

This systematic review demonstrated efficacy associated with IIV3-HD and RIV vaccines in protecting older persons against LCI. RIV vaccine may reduce all-cause mortality when compared with other vaccines, but the evidence is uncertain. Differences in efficacy between influenza vaccines remain uncertain with very low to moderate certainty of evidence.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42020177357.

Influenza Vaccine Immune Response in Patients With High-Risk Cardiovascular Disease: A Secondary Analysis of the INVESTED Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

High-dose trivalent compared with standard-dose quadrivalent influenza vaccine did not significantly reduce all-cause mortality or cardiopulmonary hospitalizations in patients with high-risk cardiovascular disease in the INVESTED trial. Whether humoral immune response to influenza vaccine is associated with clinical outcomes is unknown.

Objective

To examine the antibody response to high-dose trivalent compared with standard-dose quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccine and its associations with clinical outcomes.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This secondary analysis is a prespecified analysis of the immune response substudy of the randomized, double-blind, active-controlled INVESTED trial, which was conducted at 157 sites in the United States and Canada over 3 influenza seasons between September 2016 and January 2019. Antibody titers were determined by hemagglutination inhibition assays at randomization and 4 weeks during the 2017-2018 and 2018-2019 seasons. Eligibility criteria included recent acute myocardial infarction or heart failure hospitalization and at least 1 additional risk factor. Data were analyzed from February 2023 to June 2023.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Mean antibody titer change, seroprotection (antibody titer level ≥1:40) and seroconversion (≥4-fold increase in titer) at 4 weeks, and the association between seroconversion status and the risk for adverse clinical outcomes.

Interventions

High-dose trivalent or standard-dose quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccine, with revaccination up to 3 seasons.

Results

Antibody data were available for 658 of 5260 randomized participants (12.5%; mean [SD] age, 66.2 [11.4] years; 507 male [77.1%], 151 female [22.9%]; 348 with heart failure [52.9%]). High-dose vaccine was associated with an increased magnitude in antibody titers for A/H1N1, A/H3N2, and B-type antigens compared with standard dose. More than 92% of all participants achieved seroprotection for each of the contained antigens, while seroconversion rates were higher in participants who received high-dose vaccine. Seroconversion for any antigen was not associated with the risk for cardiopulmonary hospitalizations or all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.79-1.53; P = .59), irrespective of randomized treatment (P = .38 for interaction).

Conclusions and Relevance

High-dose vaccine elicited a more robust humoral response in patients with heart failure or prior myocardial infarction enrolled in the INVESTED trial, with no association between seroconversion status and the risk for cardiopulmonary hospitalizations or all-cause mortality. Vaccination to prevent influenza remains critical in high-risk populations.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02787044.

Influenza vaccination for elderly, vulnerable and high-risk subjects: a narrative review and expert opinion

Influenza is associated with a substantial health burden, especially in high-risk subjects such as older adults, frail individuals and those with underlying chronic diseases. In this review, we summarized clinical findings regarding the impact of influenza in vulnerable populations, highlighted the benefits of influenza vaccination in preventing severe illness and complications and reviewed the main evidence on the efficacy, effectiveness and safety of the vaccines that are best suited to older adults among those available in Italy. The adverse outcomes associated with influenza infection in elderly and frail subjects and those with underlying chronic diseases are well documented in the literature, as are the benefits of vaccination (mostly in older adults and in patients with cardiovascular diseases, diabetes and chronic lung disease). High-dose and adjuvanted inactivated influenza vaccines were specifically developed to provide enhanced immune responses in older adults, who generally have low responses mainly due to immunosenescence, comorbidities and frailty. These vaccines have been evaluated in clinical studies and systematic reviews by international immunization advisory boards, including the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. The high-dose vaccine is the only licensed influenza vaccine to have demonstrated greater efficacy versus a standard-dose vaccine in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza in a randomized controlled trial. Despite global recommendations, the vaccination coverage in high-risk populations is still suboptimal. All healthcare professionals (including specialists) have an important role in increasing vaccination rates.

Natural Language Processing for Adjudication of Heart Failure in a Multicenter Clinical Trial: A Secondary Analysis of a Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

The gold standard for outcome adjudication in clinical trials is medical record review by a physician clinical events committee (CEC), which requires substantial time and expertise. Automated adjudication of medical records by natural language processing (NLP) may offer a more resource-efficient alternative but this approach has not been validated in a multicenter setting.

Objective

To externally validate the Community Care Cohort Project (C3PO) NLP model for heart failure (HF) hospitalization adjudication, which was previously developed and tested within one health care system, compared to gold-standard CEC adjudication in a multicenter clinical trial.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This was a retrospective analysis of the Influenza Vaccine to Effectively Stop Cardio Thoracic Events and Decompensated Heart Failure (INVESTED) trial, which compared 2 influenza vaccines in 5260 participants with cardiovascular disease at 157 sites in the US and Canada between September 2016 and January 2019. Analysis was performed from November 2022 to October 2023.

Exposures

Individual sites submitted medical records for each hospitalization. The central INVESTED CEC and the C3PO NLP model independently adjudicated whether the cause of hospitalization was HF using the prepared hospitalization dossier. The C3PO NLP model was fine-tuned (C3PO + INVESTED) and a de novo NLP model was trained using half the INVESTED hospitalizations.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Concordance between the C3PO NLP model HF adjudication and the gold-standard INVESTED CEC adjudication was measured by raw agreement, κ, sensitivity, and specificity. The fine-tuned and de novo INVESTED NLP models were evaluated in an internal validation cohort not used for training.

Results

Among 4060 hospitalizations in 1973 patients (mean [SD] age, 66.4 [13.2] years; 514 [27.4%] female and 1432 [72.6%] male]), 1074 hospitalizations (26%) were adjudicated as HF by the CEC. There was good agreement between the C3PO NLP and CEC HF adjudications (raw agreement, 87% [95% CI, 86-88]; κ, 0.69 [95% CI, 0.66-0.72]). C3PO NLP model sensitivity was 94% (95% CI, 92-95) and specificity was 84% (95% CI, 83-85). The fine-tuned C3PO and de novo NLP models demonstrated agreement of 93% (95% CI, 92-94) and κ of 0.82 (95% CI, 0.77-0.86) and 0.83 (95% CI, 0.79-0.87), respectively, vs the CEC. CEC reviewer interrater reproducibility was 94% (95% CI, 93-95; κ, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.80-0.89]).

Conclusions and Relevance

The C3PO NLP model developed within 1 health care system identified HF events with good agreement relative to the gold-standard CEC in an external multicenter clinical trial. Fine-tuning the model improved agreement and approximated human reproducibility. Further study is needed to determine whether NLP will improve the efficiency of future multicenter clinical trials by identifying clinical events at scale.

Statistical inference for time-to-event data in non-randomized cohorts with selective attrition

In multi-season clinical trials with a randomize-once strategy, patients enrolled from previous seasons who stay alive and remain in the study will be treated according to the initial randomization in subsequent seasons. To address the potentially selective attrition from earlier seasons for the non-randomized cohorts, we develop an inverse probability of treatment weighting method using season-specific propensity scores to produce unbiased estimates of survival functions or hazard ratios. Bootstrap variance estimators are used to account for the randomness in the estimated weights and the potential correlations in repeated events within each patient from season to season. Simulation studies show that the weighting procedure and bootstrap variance estimator provide unbiased estimates and valid inferences in Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox proportional hazard models. Finally, data from the INVESTED trial are analyzed to illustrate the proposed method.

Effectiveness of high-dose versus standard-dose quadrivalent influenza vaccine against recurrent hospitalizations and mortality in relation to influenza circulation: A post-hoc analysis of the DANFLU-1 randomized clinical trial

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the relative effectiveness of high-dose quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV-HD) versus standard-dose quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV-SD) against recurrent hospitalizations and its potential variation in relation to influenza circulation.

METHODS

We did a post-hoc analysis of a pragmatic, open-label, randomized trial of QIV-HD versus QIV-SD performed during the 2021-2022 influenza season among adults aged 65-79 years. Participants were enrolled in October 2021-November, 2021 and followed for outcomes from 14 days postvaccination until 31 May, 2022. We investigated the following outcomes: Hospitalizations for pneumonia or influenza, respiratory hospitalizations, cardio-respiratory hospitalizations, cardiovascular hospitalizations, all-cause hospitalizations, and all-cause death. Outcomes were analysed as recurrent events. Cumulative numbers of events were assessed weekly. Cumulative relative effectiveness estimates were calculated and descriptively compared with influenza circulation. The trial is registered at Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT05048589.

RESULTS

Among 12,477 randomly assigned participants, receiving QIV-HD was associated with lower incidence rates of hospitalizations for pneumonia or influenza (10 vs. 33 events, incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.30 [95% CI, 0.14-0.64]; p 0.002) and all-cause hospitalizations (647 vs. 742 events, IRR 0.87 [95% CI, 0.76-0.99]; p 0.032) compared with QIV-SD. Trends favouring QIV-HD were consistently observed over time including in the period before active influenza transmission; i.e. while the first week with a ≥10% influenza test positivity rate was calendar week 10, 2022, the first statistically significant reduction in hospitalizations for pneumonia or influenza was already observed by calendar week 3, 2022 (5 vs. 15 events, IRR 0.33 [95% CI, 0.11-0.94]; p 0.037).

DISCUSSION

In a post-hoc analysis, QIV-HD was associated with lower incidence rates of hospitalizations for pneumonia or influenza and all-cause hospitalizations compared with QIV-SD, with trends evident independent of influenza circulation levels. Our exploratory results correspond to a number needed to treat of 65 (95% CI 35-840) persons vaccinated with QIV-HD compared with QIV-SD to prevent one additional all-cause hospitalization per season. Further research is needed to confirm these hypothesis-generating findings.

In-Hospital influenza vaccination to prevent cardiorespiratory events in the first 45 days after acute coronary syndrome: A prespecified analysis of the VIP-ACS trial

BACKGROUND

Influenza vaccination prevents major cardiovascular events in individuals presenting a recent acute coronary syndrome (ACS), however the early effect of an in-hospital double-dose vaccination strategy remains uncertain.

METHODS

The VIP-ACS was a randomized, pragmatic, multicenter, open-label trial with a blinded-adjudication endpoint. Patients with ACS ≤ 7 days of hospitalization were randomized to an in-hospital double-dose quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (double-dose) or a standard-dose influenza vaccine at 30 days post-randomization. The primary endpoint was a hierarchical composite of death, myocardial infarction, stroke, hospitalization for unstable angina, hospitalization for heart failure, urgent coronary revascularization, and hospitalization for respiratory infections, analyzed with the win ratio (WR) method in short-term follow-up (45-days after randomization).

RESULTS

The trial enrolled 1,801 patients (≥18 years old). Median participant age was 57 years, 70 % were male. There were no significant differences between groups on the primary hierarchical endpoint: there were 5.7 % wins in the double-dose in-hospital group and 5.5 % wins in the standard-dose delayed vaccination group (WR: 1.03; 95 % CI: 0.70---1.53; P = 0.85). In a sensitivity analysis including COVID-19 infection in the hospitalizations for respiratory infections endpoint, overall results were maintained (WR: 1.03; 95 % CI 0.71---1.51; P = 0.87). Results were consistent for major cardiovascular events only (WR: 0.82; 95 % CI: 0.48---1.39; P = 0.46). No serious adverse events were observed.

CONCLUSION

In patients with recent ACS, in-hospital double-dose influenza vaccination did not significantly reduce cardiorespiratory events at 45 days compared with standard-dose vaccination at 30 days post-randomization.

Dissecting the restricted mean time in favor of treatment

The restricted mean time in favor (RMT-IF) summarizes the treatment effect on a hierarchical composite endpoint with mortality at the top. Its crude decomposition into "stage-wise effects," i.e., the net average time gained by the treatment prior to each component event, does not reveal the patient state in which the extra time is spent. To obtain this information, we break each stage-wise effect into subcomponents according to the specific state to which the reference condition is improved. After re-expressing the subcomponents as functionals of the marginal survival functions of outcome events, we estimate them conveniently by plugging in the Kaplan -- Meier estimators. Their robust variance matrices allow us to construct joint tests on the decomposed units, which are particularly powerful against component-wise differential treatment effects. By reanalyzing a cancer trial and a cardiovascular trial, we acquire new insights into the quality and composition of the extra survival times, as well as the extra time with fewer hospitalizations, gained by the treatment in question. The proposed methods are implemented in the rmt package freely available on the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN).

Vaccines in cardiology, an underutilized strategy to reduce the residual cardiovascular risk

Cardiovascular diseases stand as the leading cause of mortality among adults globally. For decades, comprehensive evidence has underscored the correlation between infections, particularly those involving the respiratory system, and an elevated risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events, as well as all-cause mortality. The mechanisms through which infections heighten cardiovascular events are intricate, encompassing immune system activation, systemic inflammation, hypercoagulable states, sympathetic system activation, and increased myocardial oxygen demand. Respiratory infections further contribute hypoxemia to this complex interplay. These mechanisms intertwine, giving rise to endothelial dysfunction, plaque ruptures, myocardial depression, and heart failure. They can either instigate de novo cardiovascular events or exacerbate pre-existing conditions. Compelling evidence supports the safety of influenza, pneumococcal, herpes zoster, COVID-19 and respiratory syncytial virus vaccines in individuals with cardiovascular risk factors or established cardiovascular disease. Notably, the influenza vaccine has demonstrated safety even when administered during the acute phase of a myocardial infarction in individuals undergoing angioplasty. Beyond safety, these vaccinations significantly reduce the incidence of cardiovascular events in individuals with an augmented cardiovascular risk. Nevertheless, vaccination rates remain markedly suboptimal. This manuscript delves into the intricate relationship between infections and cardiovascular events. Additionally, we highlight the role of vaccinations as a tool to mitigate these occurrences and reduce residual cardiovascular risk. Finally, we emphasize the imperative need to optimize vaccination rates among individuals with heart diseases.

High-Dose vs. Standard-Dose Influenza Vaccine and Cardiopulmonary Hospitalization or Mortality: Emulating the INVESTED Trial Using Insurance Claims Data

The INVESTED trial did not show benefits of high-dose (HD) vaccine vs. standard-dose (SD) for a primary composite outcome of cardiopulmonary hospitalization or all-cause mortality (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.96-1.15) and its components (all-cause mortality HR = 1.01, 95% CI = 0.84-1.21, cardiopulmonary hospitalization HR = 1.05, 95% CI = 0.96-1.16) during three influenza seasons (2016-2019) among participants with recent myocardial infarction or hospitalization for heart failure (HHF). We emulated INVESTED using Medicare claims data to assess whether the real-world evidence (RWE) study reached similar conclusions. We identified 1:1 propensity score (PS)-matched trial-eligible Medicare beneficiaries aged > 65 years and with prior HHF who received an HD or SD vaccine for the 2016-2019 seasons. We also re-analyzed the INVESTED trial data restricting to participants > 65 years with prior HHF to align eligibility criteria more closely with the RWE study. We compared HRs from the trial and RWE study for the main outcomes. Among 53,393 pairs of PS-matched Medicare beneficiaries, the HD vaccine group showed lower risk of the primary composite outcome (HR = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.95-0.98) and all-cause mortality (HR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.91-0.95), and similar risk of cardiopulmonary hospitalization (HR = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.96-1.00), compared with SD. The RWE and trial results were closely concordant after the trial population was limited to participants > 65 years with prior HHF: trial-based results for the primary composite outcome (HR = 1.02, 95% CI = 0.89-1.17), all-cause mortality (HR = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.72-1.16), and cardiopulmonary hospitalization (HR = 1.02, 95% CI = 0.88-1.18). Although similar to the main trial results, the RWE was closer to the results from trial participants with aligned eligibility criteria. This study affirms the importance of considering different distributions of baseline patient characteristics when comparing trial findings to RWE.

Study design for restricted mean time analysis of recurrent events and death

The restricted mean time in favor (RMT-IF) of treatment has just been added to the analytic toolbox for composite endpoints of recurrent events and death. To help practitioners design new trials based on this method, we develop tools to calculate the sample size and power. Specifically, we formulate the outcomes as a multistate Markov process with a sequence of transient states for recurrent events and an absorbing state for death. The transition intensities, in this case the instantaneous risks of another nonfatal event or death, are assumed to be time-homogeneous but nonetheless allowed to depend on the number of past events. Using the properties of Coxian distributions, we derive the RMT-IF effect size under the alternative hypothesis as a function of the treatment-to-control intensity ratios along with the baseline intensities, the latter of which can be easily estimated from historical data. We also reduce the variance of the nonparametric RMT-IF estimator to calculable terms under a standard set-up for censoring. Simulation studies show that the resulting formulas provide accurate approximation to the sample size and power in realistic settings. For illustration, a past cardiovascular trial with recurrent-hospitalization and mortality outcomes is analyzed to generate the parameters needed to design a future trial. The procedures are incorporated into the rmt package along with the original methodology on the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN).

High-Dose Influenza Vaccine Is Associated With Reduced Mortality Among Older Adults With Breakthrough Influenza Even When There Is Poor Vaccine-Strain Match

BACKGROUND

High-dose (HD) influenza vaccine offers improved protection from influenza virus infection among older adults compared with standard-dose (SD) vaccine. Here, we explored whether HD vaccine attenuates disease severity among older adults with breakthrough influenza.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of US claims data for influenza seasons 2016-2017, 2017-2018, and 2018-2019, defined as 1 October through 30 April, among adults aged ≥65 years. After adjusting the different cohorts for the probability of vaccination conditional on patients' characteristics, we compared 30-day mortality rate post-influenza among older adults who experienced breakthrough infection after receipt of HD or SD influenza vaccines and among those not vaccinated (NV).

RESULTS

We evaluated 44 456 influenza cases: 23 109 (52%) were unvaccinated, 15 037 (33.8%) received HD vaccine, and 6310 (14.2%) received SD vaccine. Significant reductions in mortality rates among breakthrough cases were observed across all 3 seasons for HD vs NV, ranging from 17% to 29% reductions. A significant mortality reduction of 25% was associated with SD vaccination vs NV in the 2016-2017 season when there was a good match between circulating influenza viruses and selected vaccine strains. When comparing HD vs SD cohorts, mortality reductions were higher among those who received HD in the last 2 seasons when mismatch between vaccine strains and circulating H3N2 viruses was documented, albeit not significant.

CONCLUSIONS

HD vaccination was associated with lower post-influenza mortality among older adults with breakthrough influenza, even during seasons when antigenically drifted H3N2 circulated. Improved understanding of the impact of different vaccines on attenuating disease severity is warranted when assessing vaccine policy recommendations.

The Impact of Adjuvanted Influenza Vaccine on Disease Severity in the US: A Stochastic Model

Influenza can exacerbate underlying medical conditions. In this study, we modelled the potential impact of an egg-based quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIVe) or adjuvanted QIV (aQIV) on hospitalizations and mortality from influenza-related cardiovascular disease (CVD), respiratory, and other complications in adults ≥65 years of age in the US with underlying chronic conditions. We used a stochastic decision-tree model, with 1000 simulations varying input across predicted ranges. Due to the variable nature of influenza across seasons and differences in published estimates for input parameters, data are presented as 95% confidence intervals. Compared with no vaccination, use of aQIV would prevent 135,450-564,360 hospitalizations and 1612-29,226 deaths across outcomes evaluated. Overall, aQIV prevented 1071-18,388 more hospitalizations and 85-1944 more deaths than QIVe. By routine seasonal vaccination against influenza, a substantial number of severe influenza-associated complications and deaths, caused by direct influenza symptoms or by exacerbation of chronic conditions, can be prevented in high-risk adults ≥65 years of age in the US.

Temporal Association Among Influenza-Like Illness, Cardiovascular Events, and Vaccine Dose in Patients With High-Risk Cardiovascular Disease: Secondary Analysis of a Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

Influenza-like illness (ILI) activity has been associated with increased risk of cardiopulmonary (CP) events during the influenza season. High-dose trivalent influenza vaccine was not superior to standard-dose quadrivalent vaccine for reducing these events in patients with high-risk cardiovascular (CV) disease in the Influenza Vaccine to Effectively Stop Cardio Thoracic Events and Decompensated Heart Failure (INVESTED) trial.

Objective

To evaluate whether high-dose trivalent influenza vaccination is associated with benefit over standard-dose quadrivalent vaccination in reducing CP events during periods of high, local influenza activity.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This study was a prespecified secondary analysis of INVESTED, a multicenter, double-blind, active comparator randomized clinical trial conducted over 3 consecutive influenza seasons from September 2016 to July 2019. Follow-up was completed in July 2019, and data were analyzed from September 21, 2016, to July 31, 2019. Weekly Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)-reported, state-level ILI activity was ascertained to assess the weekly odds of the primary outcome. The study population included 3094 patients with high-risk CV disease from participating centers in the US.

Intervention

Participants were randomized to high-dose trivalent or standard-dose quadrivalent influenza vaccine and revaccinated for up to 3 seasons.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was the time to composite of all-cause death or CP hospitalization within each season. Additional measures included weekly CDC-reported ILI activity data by state.

Results

Among 3094 participants (mean [SD] age, 65 [12] years; 2309 male [75%]), we analyzed 129 285 person-weeks of enrollment, including 1396 composite primary outcome events (1278 CP hospitalization, 118 deaths). A 1% ILI increase in the prior week was associated with an increased risk in the primary outcome (odds ratio [OR], 1.14; 95% CI, 1.07-1.21; P < .001), CP hospitalization (OR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.06-1.21; P < .001), and CV hospitalization (OR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.04-1.19; P = .001), after adjusting for state, demographic characteristics, enrollment strata, and CV risk factors. Increased ILI activity was not associated with all-cause death (OR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.88-1.13; P > .99). High-dose compared with standard-dose vaccine did not significantly reduce the primary outcome, even when the analysis was restricted to weeks of high ILI activity (OR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.65-1.20; P = .43). Traditionally warmer months in the US were associated with lower CV risk independent of local ILI activity.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this secondary analysis of a randomized clinical trial, ILI activity was temporally associated with increased CP events in patients with high-risk CV disease, and a higher influenza vaccine dose did not significantly reduce temporal CV risk. Other seasonal factors may play a role in the coincident high rates of ILI and CV events.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02787044.

Nonparametric inference of general while-alive estimands for recurrent events

Measuring the treatment effect on recurrent events like hospitalization in the presence of death has long challenged statisticians and clinicians alike. Traditional inference on the cumulative frequency unjustly penalizes survivorship as longer survivors also tend to experience more adverse events. Expanding a recently suggested idea of the "while-alive" event rate, we consider a general class of such estimands that adjust for the length of survival without losing causal interpretation. Given a user-specified loss function that allows for arbitrary weighting, we define as estimand the average loss experienced per unit time alive within a target period and use the ratio of this loss rate to measure the effect size. Scaling the loss rate by the width of the corresponding time window gives us an alternative, and sometimes more photogenic, way of showing the data. To make inferences, we construct a nonparametric estimator for the loss rate through the cumulative loss and the restricted mean survival time and derive its influence function in closed form for variance estimation and testing. As simulations and analysis of real data from a heart failure trial both show, the while-alive approach corrects for the false attenuation of treatment effect due to patients living longer under treatment, with increased statistical power as a result. The proposed methods are implemented in the R-package WA, which is publicly available from the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN).

2023 AHA/ACC/ACCP/ASPC/NLA/PCNA Guideline for the Management of Patients With Chronic Coronary Disease: A Report of the American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology Joint Committee on Clinical Practice Guidelines

AIM

The "2023 AHA/ACC/ACCP/ASPC/NLA/PCNA Guideline for the Management of Patients With Chronic Coronary Disease" provides an update to and consolidates new evidence since the "2012 ACCF/AHA/ACP/AATS/PCNA/SCAI/STS Guideline for the Diagnosis and Management of Patients With Stable Ischemic Heart Disease" and the corresponding "2014 ACC/AHA/AATS/PCNA/SCAI/STS Focused Update of the Guideline for the Diagnosis and Management of Patients With Stable Ischemic Heart Disease."

METHODS

A comprehensive literature search was conducted from September 2021 to May 2022. Clinical studies, systematic reviews and meta-analyses, and other evidence conducted on human participants were identified that were published in English from MEDLINE (through PubMed), EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, and other selected databases relevant to this guideline.

STRUCTURE

This guideline provides an evidenced-based and patient-centered approach to management of patients with chronic coronary disease, considering social determinants of health and incorporating the principles of shared decision-making and team-based care. Relevant topics include general approaches to treatment decisions, guideline-directed management and therapy to reduce symptoms and future cardiovascular events, decision-making pertaining to revascularization in patients with chronic coronary disease, recommendations for management in special populations, patient follow-up and monitoring, evidence gaps, and areas in need of future research. Where applicable, and based on availability of cost-effectiveness data, cost-value recommendations are also provided for clinicians. Many recommendations from previously published guidelines have been updated with new evidence, and new recommendations have been created when supported by published data.

2023 AHA/ACC/ACCP/ASPC/NLA/PCNA Guideline for the Management of Patients With Chronic Coronary Disease: A Report of the American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology Joint Committee on Clinical Practice Guidelines

AIM

The "2023 AHA/ACC/ACCP/ASPC/NLA/PCNA Guideline for the Management of Patients With Chronic Coronary Disease" provides an update to and consolidates new evidence since the "2012 ACCF/AHA/ACP/AATS/PCNA/SCAI/STS Guideline for the Diagnosis and Management of Patients With Stable Ischemic Heart Disease" and the corresponding "2014 ACC/AHA/AATS/PCNA/SCAI/STS Focused Update of the Guideline for the Diagnosis and Management of Patients With Stable Ischemic Heart Disease."

METHODS

A comprehensive literature search was conducted from September 2021 to May 2022. Clinical studies, systematic reviews and meta-analyses, and other evidence conducted on human participants were identified that were published in English from MEDLINE (through PubMed), EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, and other selected databases relevant to this guideline.

STRUCTURE

This guideline provides an evidenced-based and patient-centered approach to management of patients with chronic coronary disease, considering social determinants of health and incorporating the principles of shared decision-making and team-based care. Relevant topics include general approaches to treatment decisions, guideline-directed management and therapy to reduce symptoms and future cardiovascular events, decision-making pertaining to revascularization in patients with chronic coronary disease, recommendations for management in special populations, patient follow-up and monitoring, evidence gaps, and areas in need of future research. Where applicable, and based on availability of cost-effectiveness data, cost-value recommendations are also provided for clinicians. Many recommendations from previously published guidelines have been updated with new evidence, and new recommendations have been created when supported by published data.

Pleiotropic Effects of Influenza Vaccination

Influenza vaccines are designed to mimic natural influenza virus exposure and stimulate a long-lasting immune response to future infections. The evolving nature of the influenza virus makes vaccination an important and efficacious strategy to reduce healthcare-related complications of influenza. Several lines of evidence indicate that influenza vaccination may induce nonspecific effects, also referred to as heterologous or pleiotropic effects, that go beyond protection against infection. Different explanations are proposed, including the upregulation and downregulation of cytokines and epigenetic reprogramming in monocytes and natural killer cells, imprinting an immunological memory in the innate immune system, a phenomenon termed "trained immunity". Also, cross-reactivity between related stimuli and bystander activation, which entails activation of B and T lymphocytes without specific recognition of antigens, may play a role. In this review, we will discuss the possible nonspecific effects of influenza vaccination in cardiovascular disease, type 1 diabetes, cancer, and Alzheimer's disease, future research questions, and potential implications. A discussion of the potential effects on infections by other pathogens is beyond the scope of this review.

Natural Language Processing for Adjudication of Heart Failure Hospitalizations in a Multi-Center Clinical Trial

Background

The gold standard for outcome adjudication in clinical trials is chart review by a physician clinical events committee (CEC), which requires substantial time and expertise. Automated adjudication by natural language processing (NLP) may offer a more resource-efficient alternative. We previously showed that the Community Care Cohort Project (C3PO) NLP model adjudicates heart failure (HF) hospitalizations accurately within one healthcare system.

Methods

This study externally validated the C3PO NLP model against CEC adjudication in the INVESTED trial. INVESTED compared influenza vaccination formulations in 5260 patients with cardiovascular disease at 157 North American sites. A central CEC adjudicated the cause of hospitalizations from medical records. We applied the C3PO NLP model to medical records from 4060 INVESTED hospitalizations and evaluated agreement between the NLP and final consensus CEC HF adjudications. We then fine-tuned the C3PO NLP model (C3PO+INVESTED) and trained a de novo model using half the INVESTED hospitalizations, and evaluated these models in the other half. NLP performance was benchmarked to CEC reviewer inter-rater reproducibility.

Results

1074 hospitalizations (26%) were adjudicated as HF by the CEC. There was high agreement between the C3PO NLP and CEC HF adjudications (agreement 87%, kappa statistic 0.69). C3PO NLP model sensitivity was 94% and specificity was 84%. The fine-tuned C3PO and de novo NLP models demonstrated agreement of 93% and kappa of 0.82 and 0.83, respectively. CEC reviewer inter-rater reproducibility was 94% (kappa 0.85).

Conclusion

Our NLP model developed within a single healthcare system accurately identified HF events relative to the gold-standard CEC in an external multi-center clinical trial. Fine-tuning the model improved agreement and approximated human reproducibility. NLP may improve the efficiency of future multi-center clinical trials by accurately identifying clinical events at scale.

Management of patients on antithrombotic therapy with severe infections: a joint clinical consensus statement of the ESC Working Group on Thrombosis, the ESC Working Group on Atherosclerosis and Vascular Biology, and the International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis

Patients with severe infections and a pre-existing indication for antithrombotic therapy, i.e. antiplatelet agents, anticoagulant drugs, or their combinations, require integrated clinical counselling among coagulation, infectious disease, and cardiology specialists, due to sepsis-induced coagulopathy that frequently occurs. Bacterial and viral pathogens constitute an increasing threat to global public health, especially for patients with ongoing antithrombotic treatment who have a high risk of thrombotic recurrences and high susceptibility to severe infections with increased morbidity and mortality. Similarly, sepsis survivors are at increased risk for major vascular events. Coagulopathy, which often complicates severe infections, is associated with a high mortality and obligates clinicians to adjust antithrombotic drug type and dosing to avoid bleeding while preventing thrombotic complications. This clinical consensus statement reviews the best available evidence to provide expert opinion and statements on the management of patients hospitalized for severe bacterial or viral infections with a pre-existing indication for antithrombotic therapy (single or combined), in whom sepsis-induced coagulopathy is often observed. Balancing the risk of thrombosis and bleeding in these patients and preventing infections with vaccines, if available, are crucial to prevent events or improve outcomes and prognosis.

High-dose influenza vaccine in older adults by age and seasonal characteristics: Systematic review and meta-analysis update

This updated systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized and observational studies published up to April 2023 assessed the relative performance of high-dose inactivated influenza vaccine (HD-IIV) and standard-dose influenza vaccines (SD-IIV) against influenza-associated outcomes in older adults (≥65 years). The analysis included studies conducted over 12 influenza seasons (2009/2010 to 2019/2020, 2021/2022), including over 45 million individuals aged ≥ 65 years, and showed that HD-IIV provided significantly better protection than SD-IIV against influenza-like illness and influenza-related hospitalizations, as well as cardiovascular, cardiorespiratory, and all-cause hospitalizations. Subgroup analyses showed HD-IIV consistently provided better protection than SD-IIV against influenza outcomes across the age range (65+, 75+ 85+ years), and regardless of the predominantly circulating influenza strain and vaccine antigenic match/mismatch. Randomized studies continue to drive high-quality evidence on the effectiveness of high-dose inactivated influenza vaccine relative to SD-IIV against severe influenza outcomes in adults aged ≥ 65 years, supported by observational data.

Viral Pneumonia during the COVID-19 Pandemic, 2019-2021 Evoking Needs for SARS-CoV-2 and Additional Vaccinations

Coronaviruses can cause pneumonia, with clinical symptoms that may be similar to the symptoms of other viral pneumonias. To our knowledge, there have been no reports regarding cases of pneumonia caused by coronaviruses and other viruses among hospitalized patients in the past 3 years before and during coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Here, we analysed the causes of viral pneumonia among hospitalized patients during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic (2019-2021). Between September 2019 and April 2021, patients hospitalized at Shuang Ho Hospital in north Taiwan with a diagnosis of pneumonia were enrolled in this study. Age, sex, onset date, and season of occurrence were recorded. Respiratory tract pathogens were identified with molecular detection using the FilmArray^® platform from nasopharyngeal swabs. In total, 1147 patients (128 patients aged <18 years and 1019 patients aged ≥18 years) with pneumonia and identified respiratory tract pathogens were assessed. Among the 128 children with pneumonia, the dominant viral respiratory pathogen was rhinovirus (24.2%), followed by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV; 22.7%), parainfluenza virus (1 + 2 + 3 + 4) (17.2%), adenovirus (12.5%), metapneumovirus (9.4%), coronavirus (1.6%), and influenza virus (A + B) (1.6%). Among the 1019 adults with pneumonia, the dominant viral respiratory pathogen was rhinovirus (5.0%), followed by RSV (2.0%), coronavirus (2.0%), metapneumovirus (1.5%), parainfluenza virus (1 + 2 + 3 + 4) (1.1%), adenovirus (0.7%), and influenza virus (A + B) (0%). From 2019-2021, older patients (aged >65 years) with pneumonia tested positive for coronavirus most commonly in autumn. Coronavirus was not detected during summer in children or adults. Among children aged 0-6 years, RSV was the most common viral pathogen, and RSV infection occurred most often in autumn. Metapneumovirus infection occurred most often in spring in both children and adults. In contrast, influenza virus was not detected in patients with pneumonia in any season among children or adults from January 2020 to April 2021. Among all patients with pneumonia, the most common viral pathogens were rhinovirus in spring, adenovirus and rhinovirus in summer, RSV and rhinovirus in autumn, and parainfluenza virus in winter. Among children aged 0-6 years, RSV, rhinovirus, and adenovirus were detected in all seasons during the study period. In conclusion, the proportion of pneumonia cases caused by a viral pathogen was higher in children than the proportion in adults. The COVID-19 pandemic period evoked a need for SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory disease coronavirus 2) vaccination to prevent the severe complications of COVID-19. However, other viruses were also found. Vaccines for influenza were clinically applied. Active vaccines for other viral pathogens such as RSV, rhinovirus, metapneuomoccus, parainfluenza, and adenovirus may need to be developed for special groups in the future.

On restricted mean time in favor of treatment

The restricted mean time in favor (RMT-IF) of treatment is a nonparametric effect size for complex life history data. It is defined as the net average time the treated spend in a more favorable state than the untreated over a prespecified time window. It generalizes the familiar restricted mean survival time (RMST) from the two-state life-death model to account for intermediate stages in disease progression. The overall estimand can be additively decomposed into stage-wise effects, with the standard RMST as a component. Alternate expressions of the overall and stage-wise estimands as integrals of the marginal survival functions for a sequence of landmark transitioning events allow them to be easily estimated by plug-in Kaplan-Meier estimators. The dynamic profile of the estimated treatment effects as a function of follow-up time can be visualized using a multilayer, cone-shaped "bouquet plot." Simulation studies under realistic settings show that the RMT-IF meaningfully and accurately quantifies the treatment effect and outperforms traditional tests on time to the first event in statistical efficiency thanks to its fuller utilization of patient data. The new methods are illustrated on a colon cancer trial with relapse and death as outcomes and a cardiovascular trial with recurrent hospitalizations and death as outcomes. The R-package rmt implements the proposed methodology and is publicly available from the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN).

Primary prevention of acute cardiovascular events by influenza vaccination: an observational study

AIMS

Previous studies show a reduced incidence of first myocardial infarction and stroke 1-3 months after influenza vaccination, but it is unclear how underlying cardiovascular risk impacts the association.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The study used linked Clinical Practice Research Datalink, Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care and Office for National Statistics mortality data from England between 1 September 2008 and 31 August 2019. From the data, individuals aged 40-84 years with a first acute cardiovascular event and influenza vaccination occurring within 12 months of each September were selected. Using a self-controlled case series analysis, season-adjusted cardiovascular risk stratified incidence ratios (IRs) for cardiovascular events after vaccination compared with baseline time before and >120 days after vaccination were generated. 193 900 individuals with a first acute cardiovascular event and influenza vaccine were included. 105 539 had hypertension and 172 050 had a QRISK2 score ≥10%. In main analysis, acute cardiovascular event risk was reduced in the 15-28 days after vaccination [IR 0.72 (95% CI 0.70-0.74)] and, while the effect size tapered, remained reduced to 91-120 days after vaccination [0.83 (0.81-0.88)]. Reduced cardiovascular events were seen after vaccination among individuals of all age groups and with raised and low cardiovascular risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza vaccine may offer cardiovascular benefit among individuals at varying cardiovascular risk. Further studies are needed to characterize the populations who could derive the most cardiovascular benefits from vaccination.

The impact of influenza vaccination on cardiovascular diseases

The link between influenza and medical complications is well stablished and plays a role in the high mortality rates of this disease. Available scientific evidence suggests that influenza vaccination might reduce the risk of cardiovascular events. This setting for cardiovascular prevention beyond immunoprotection has been studied in several clinical trials. Most of them include populations with coronary artery disease. However, differences in clinical design, population included, and vaccination strategies might explain divergent results and should be interpreted with caution. The present article summarizes available literature in a manner that aids physicians in a better interpretation and encourages the implementation of influenza vaccination in cardiovascular prevention programmes.

Vaccines and cardiovascular outcomes: lessons learned from influenza epidemics

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the world and is largely preventable. An increasing amount of evidence suggests that annual influenza vaccination reduces CVD-related morbidity and mortality. Despite various clinical guidelines recommending annual influenza vaccination for the general population for influenza-like illness risk reduction, with a particular emphasis on people with CVD, vaccination rates fall consistently below the goal established by the World Health Organization. This review outlines the importance of influenza vaccination, mechanisms of cardiovascular events in influenza, summarizing the available literature on the effects of influenza vaccine in CVD and the benefits of influenza vaccine during the COVID-19 pandemic.

A Pragmatic Randomized Feasibility Trial of Influenza Vaccines

Randomized Feasibility Trial of Influenza VaccinesThis pragmatic, open-label, active-controlled, randomized feasibility trial of QIV-HD versus QIV-SD was conducted in Danish citizens aged 65 to 79 years during the 2021-2022 influenza season. Randomization was integrated into routine vaccination practice. Only nationwide administrative health registries were used for data collection.

Association of post-vaccination adverse reactions after influenza vaccine with mortality and cardiopulmonary outcomes in patients with high-risk cardiovascular disease: the INVESTED trial

AIMS

Influenza vaccination is associated with reduced cardiopulmonary morbidity and mortality among patients with heart failure or recent myocardial infarction. The immune response to vaccination frequently results in mild adverse reactions (AR), which leads to vaccine hesitancy. This post hoc analysis explored the association between vaccine-related AR and morbidity and mortality in patients with high-risk cardiovascular disease.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The INVESTED trial randomized 5260 patients with recent heart failure hospitalization or acute myocardial infarction to high-dose trivalent or standard-dose quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccine. We examined the association between vaccine-related AR and adverse clinical outcomes across both treatment groups in propensity-adjusted models. Among 5210 participants with available information on post-vaccination symptoms, 1968 participants (37.8%) experienced a vaccine-related AR. Compared to those without AR, post-vaccination AR, most commonly injection site pain (60.3%), were associated with lower risk for the composite of all-cause death or cardiopulmonary hospitalization (hazard ratio [HR] 0.83, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.75-0.92, p < 0.001), cardiopulmonary hospitalizations (HR 0.85 [95% CI 0.76-0.95], p = 0.003), all-cause death (HR 0.77 [95% CI 0.62-0.96], p = 0.02), cardiovascular hospitalizations (HR 0.88 [95% CI 0.78-0.99], p = 0.03) and non-cardiopulmonary hospitalizations (HR 0.80 [95% CI 0.69-0.92], p = 0.003). While mild (76.4%) and moderate (20.6%) AR were most common and together associated with lower risk for the primary outcome (HR 0.81 [95% CI 0.74-0.90], p < 0.001), severe AR (2.9%) were related to increased risk (HR 1.68 [95% CI 1.17-2.42], p = 0.005).

CONCLUSION

Mild to moderate post-vaccination reactions after influenza vaccine were associated with reduced risk of cardiopulmonary hospitalizations and all-cause mortality in patients with high-risk cardiovascular disease, while severe reactions may indicate increased risk. Mild to moderate AR to influenza vaccination may be a marker of immune response and should not deter future vaccinations.

Rethinking next-generation vaccines for coronaviruses, influenzaviruses, and other respiratory viruses

Viruses that replicate in the human respiratory mucosa without infecting systemically, including influenza A, SARS-CoV-2, endemic coronaviruses, RSV, and many other "common cold" viruses, cause significant mortality and morbidity and are important public health concerns. Because these viruses generally do not elicit complete and durable protective immunity by themselves, they have not to date been effectively controlled by licensed or experimental vaccines. In this review, we examine challenges that have impeded development of effective mucosal respiratory vaccines, emphasizing that all of these viruses replicate extremely rapidly in the surface epithelium and are quickly transmitted to other hosts, within a narrow window of time before adaptive immune responses are fully marshaled. We discuss possible approaches to developing next-generation vaccines against these viruses, in consideration of several variables such as vaccine antigen configuration, dose and adjuventation, route and timing of vaccination, vaccine boosting, adjunctive therapies, and options for public health vaccination polices.

Mendelian randomization suggests a potential causal effect of eosinophil count on influenza vaccination responsiveness

Currently, the clinical factors affecting immune responses to influenza vaccines have not been systematically explored. The mechanism of low responsiveness to influenza vaccination (LRIV) is complicated and not thoroughly elucidated. Thus, we integrate our in-house genome-wide association studies (GWAS) analysis result of LRIV (N = 111, Ncase [Low Responders] = 34, Ncontrol [Responders] = 77) with the GWAS summary of 10 blood-based biomarkers (sample size ranging from 62 076-108 794) deposited in BioBank Japan (BBJ) to comprehensively explore the shared genetics between LRIV and blood-based biomarkers to investigate the causal relationships between blood-based biomarkers and LRIV by Mendelian randomization (MR). The applications of four MR approaches (inverse-variance-weighted [IVW], weighted median, weighted mode, and generalized summary-data-based MR [GSMR]) suggested that the genetically instrumented LRIV was associated with decreased eosinophil count (β = -5.517 to -4.422, p = 0.004-0.039). Finally, we conclude that the low level of eosinophil count is a suggestive risk factor for LRIV.

Influenza vaccine to reduce adverse vascular events in patients with heart failure: a multinational randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Influenza increases the risk of cardiovascular events and deaths. We aimed to see whether influenza vaccination reduces death and vascular events in patients with heart failure.

METHODS

We did a pragmatic, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial in 30 centres (mostly hospitals affliated with universities or a research institute) in ten countries in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa (7 in India, 4 in Philippines, 4 in Nigeria, 6 in China, 1 in Zambia, 2 in Mozambique, 3 in Saudi Arabia, 1 in Kenya, 1 in Uganda, and 1 in Zambia). Participants (aged ≥18 years; 52·1% female; not disaggregated by race or ethnicity) with heart failure (New York Heart Association class II, III, or IV) were randomly assigned (1:1) by a centralised web-based system with block randomisation stratified by site, to receive 0·5 ml intramuscularly once a year for up to 3 years of either inactivated standard dose influenza vaccine or placebo (saline). We excluded people who had received influenza vaccine in 2 of the previous 3 years, and those likely to require valve repair or replacement. Those who administered assigned treatments were not masked and had no further role in the study. Investigators, study coordinators, outcome adjudicators, and participants were masked to group assignment. The first of two co-primary outcomes was a first-event composite for cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, and non-fatal stroke, and the second was a recurrent-events composite for cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, and hospitalisation for heart failure. Outcomes were assessed every 6 months in the intention-to-treat population. Secondary outcomes were all-cause death, cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, all-cause hospitalisation, hospitalisation for heart failure, and pneumonia, both overall and during periods of peak influenza exposure. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02762851.

FINDINGS

Between June 2, 2015, and Nov 21, 2021, we enrolled 5129 participants and randomly assigned (1:1) 2560 (50·0%) to influenza vaccine and 2569 (50·0%) to placebo. The first co-primary outcome occurred in 380 (14·8%) of 2560 participants in the vaccine group and 410 (16·0%) of 2569 participants in the placebo group (hazard ratio [HR] 0·93 [95% CI 0·81-1·07]; p=0·30). The second co-primary outcome occurred in 754 (29·5%) of 2560 participants in the vaccine group and 819 (31·9%) of 2569 participants in the placebo group; HR 0·92 [95% CI 0·84-1·02]; p=0·12). The secondary outcomes of all-cause hospitalisations (HR 0·84 [95% CI 0·74-0·97]; p=0·013) and pneumonia (HR 0·58 [0·42-0·80]; p=0·0006) were significantly reduced in the vaccine group compared with in the placebo group but there was no significant difference between groups for all-cause death, cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, and hospitalisation for heart failure. In a prespecified analysis, in which events were limited to periods of peak influenza circulation, the first co-primary outcome, and the secondary outcomes of all-cause death, cardiovasular death, and pneumonia were significantly lower in the vaccinated group than in the placebo group, whereas the second co-primary outcome and the secondary outcomes of non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, all-cause hospitalisation, and hospitalisation for heart failure were not significantly lower.

INTERPRETATION

Although the prespecified co-primary outcomes during the entire period of observation were not statistically significant, the reduction during the peak influenza circulating period suggests that there is likely to be a clinical benefit of giving influenza vaccine, given the clear reduction in pneumonia, a moderate reduction in hospitalisations, and a reduction in cardiovascular events and deaths during periods of peak circulation of influenza. Taken in conjunction with previous trials and the observational studies, the collective data suggest benefit.

FUNDING

UK Joint Global Health Trials Scheme and Canadian Institutes for Health Research Foundation.

Stratified proportional win-fractions regression analysis

The recently proposed proportional win-fractions (PW) model extends the two-sample win ratio analysis of prioritized composite endpoints to regression. Its proportionality assumption ensures that the covariate-specific win ratios are invariant to the follow-up time. However, this assumption is strong and may not be satisfied by every covariate in the model. We develop a stratified PW model that adjusts for certain prognostic factors without setting them as covariates, thus bypassing the proportionality requirement. We formulate the stratified model based on pairwise comparisons within each stratum, with a common win ratio across strata modeled as a multiplicative function of the covariates. Correspondingly, we construct an estimating function for the regression coefficients in the form of an incomplete U $$ U $$ -statistic consisting of within-stratum pairs. Two types of asymptotic variance estimators are developed depending on the number of strata relative to the sample size. This in particular allows valid inference even when the strata are extremely small, such as with matched pairs. Simulation studies in realistic settings show that the stratified model outperforms the unstratified version in robustness and efficiency. Finally, real data from a major cardiovascular trial are analyzed to illustrate the potential benefits of stratification. The proposed methods are implemented in the R package WR, publicly available on the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN).

The link between influenza and myocardial infarction: vaccination protects

The association between influenza and cardiovascular disease has been known since the influenza pandemics of the early years of the last century. This association is more consistent and more lasting in the case of particularly severe infections. Several pathogens, including influenza viruses, can modulate the inflammatory response and influence the biology of atherosclerotic plaque to rupture it and cause a Type 1 myocardial infarction. Clinically relevant viral infections can also exacerbate pre-existing cardiovascular disease and contribute to the development of a Type 2 myocardial infarction through an increase in the metabolic demands of the myocardial tissue for fever and tachycardia and the possible induction of hypoxaemia. Evidence of a relevant protective efficacy of influenza vaccination provides further robust and convincing support for a causal link between influenza and myocardial infarction. Consistent cardiovascular protection linked to influenza vaccination has also been demonstrated in patients with recent myocardial infarction to suggest the possibility that this procedure may become an integral part of in-hospital management of acute coronary syndromes. Despite the solidity of these evidences, acknowledged by the guidelines that recommend influenza vaccination in patients at increased cardiovascular risk, still today an unacceptably high proportion of patients at high cardiovascular risk do not receive flu vaccination. Despite some potential limitations of the current flu vaccination, its advantages in terms of reducing cardiovascular events and related mortality are still such as to justify its wide use, especially, but not limited to, in patients with high cardiovascular risk.

High-dose influenza vaccines for the prevention of hospitalization due to cardiovascular events in older adults in the nursing home: Post-hoc analysis of a cluster-randomized trial

Older adults are at high risk of major acute cardiovascular events (MACE) linked to influenza illness andpreventable by influenza vaccination. It is unknown whether high-dose vaccine might incrementally reduce the risk of MACE.We conducted a post-hoc analysis of data collected from a pragmatic cluster randomized study of 823 nursing homes (NH) randomized to standard-dose (SD) or high-dose (HD) influenza vaccine in the 2013-14 season. Adults age 65 year or older who are Medicare-enrolled long-stay residents were included in the analysis.There were no statistically significant differences in hospitalization for MACE, acute coronary syndromes (ACS), stroke or heart failure between the HD and SD arms. However, in the fee-for-service group, participants in the HD arm had significantly decreased risk of hospitalization for respiratory problems, which was not observed in the Medicare Advantage group.High-dose influenza vaccine was not shown to be incrementally protective against MACE relative to standard-dose vaccine.

Power and Sample Size Calculations for the Restricted Mean Time Analysis of Prioritized Composite Endpoints

As a new way of reporting treatment effect, the restricted mean time in favor (RMT-IF) of treatment measures the net average time the treated have had a less serious outcome than the untreated over a specified time window. With multiple outcomes of differing severity, this offers a more interpretable and data-efficient alternative to the prototypical restricted mean (event-free) survival time. To facilitate its adoption in actual trials, we develop simple approaches to power and sample size calculations and implement them in user-friendly R programs. In doing so we model the bivariate outcomes of death and a nonfatal event using a Gumbel-Hougaard copula with component-wise proportional hazards structures, under which the RMT-IF estimand is derived in closed form. In a standard set-up for censoring, the variance of the nonparametric effect-size estimator is simplified and computed via a hybrid of numerical and Monte Carlo integrations, allowing us to compute the power and sample size as functions of component-wise hazard ratios. Simulation studies show that these formulas provide accurate approximations in realistic settings. To illustrate our methods, we consider designing a new trial to evaluate treatment effect on the composite outcomes of death and cancer relapse in lymph node-positive breast cancer patients, with baseline parameters calculated from a previous study.

Sample size formula for general win ratio analysis

Originally proposed for the analysis of prioritized composite endpoints, the win ratio has now expanded into a broad class of methodology based on general pairwise comparisons. Complicated by the non-i.i.d. structure of the test statistic, however, sample size estimation for the win ratio has lagged behind. In this article, we develop general and easy-to-use formulas to calculate sample size for win ratio analysis of different outcome types. In a nonparametric setting, the null variance of the test statistic is derived using U-statistic theory in terms of a dispersion parameter called the standard rank deviation, an intrinsic characteristic of the null outcome distribution and the user-defined rule of comparison. The effect size can be hypothesized either on the original scale of the population win ratio, or on the scale of a "usual" effect size suited to the outcome type. The latter approach allows one to measure the effect size by, for example, odds/continuation ratio for totally/partially ordered outcomes and hazard ratios for composite time-to-event outcomes. Simulation studies show that the derived formulas provide accurate estimates for the required sample size across different settings. As illustration, real data from two clinical studies of hepatic and cardiovascular diseases are used as pilot data to calculate sample sizes for future trials.

Prevention and Control of Seasonal Influenza with Vaccines: Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices - United States, 2022-23 Influenza Season

This report updates the 2021–22 recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) concerning the use of seasonal influenza vaccines in the United States

(MMWR Recomm Rep 2021;70[No. RR-5]:1–24). Routine annual influenza vaccination is recommended for all persons aged ≥6 months who do not have contraindications. For each recipient, a licensed and age-appropriate vaccine should be used.With the exception of vaccination for adults aged ≥65 years, ACIP makes no preferential recommendation for a specific vaccine when more than one licensed, recommended, and age-appropriate vaccine is available. All seasonal influenza vaccines expected to be available in the United States for the 2022–23 season are quadrivalent, containing hemagglutinin (HA) derived from one influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus, one influenza A(H3N2) virus, one influenza B/Victoria lineage virus, and one influenza B/Yamagata lineage virus. Inactivated influenza vaccines (IIV4s), recombinant influenza vaccine (RIV4), and live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV4) are expected to be available. Trivalent influenza vaccines are no longer available, but data that involve these vaccines are included for reference.

Influenza vaccines might be available as early as July or August, but for most persons who need only 1 dose of influenza vaccine for the season, vaccination should ideally be offered during September or October. However, vaccination should continue after October and throughout the season as long as influenza viruses are circulating and unexpired vaccine is available. For most adults (particularly adults aged ≥65 years) and for pregnant persons in the first or second trimester, vaccination during July and August should be avoided unless there is concern that vaccination later in the season might not be possible. Certain children aged 6 months through 8 years need 2 doses; these children should receive the first dose as soon as possible after vaccine is available, including during July and August. Vaccination during July and August can be considered for children of any age who need only 1 dose for the season and for pregnant persons who are in the third trimester if vaccine is available during those months

Updates described in this report reflect discussions during public meetings of ACIP that were held on October 20, 2021; January 12, 2022; February 23, 2022; and June 22, 2022. Primary updates to this report include the following three topics: 1) the composition of 2022–23 U.S. seasonal influenza vaccines; 2) updates to the description of influenza vaccines expected to be available for the 2022–23 season, including one influenza vaccine labeling change that occurred after the publication of the 2021–22 ACIP influenza recommendations; and 3) updates to the recommendations concerning vaccination of adults aged ≥65 years. First, the composition of 2022–23 U.S. influenza vaccines includes updates to the influenza A(H3N2) and influenza B/Victoria lineage components. U.S.-licensed influenza vaccines will contain HA derived from an influenza A/Victoria/2570/2019 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus (for egg-based vaccines) or an influenza A/Wisconsin/588/2019 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus (for cell culture–based or recombinant vaccines); an influenza A/Darwin/9/2021 (H3N2)-like virus (for egg-based vaccines) or an influenza A/Darwin/6/2021 (H3N2)-like virus (for cell culture–based or recombinant vaccines); an influenza B/Austria/1359417/2021 (Victoria lineage)-like virus; and an influenza B/Phuket/3073/2013 (Yamagata lineage)-like virus. Second, the approved age indication for the cell culture–based inactivated influenza vaccine, Flucelvax Quadrivalent (ccIIV4), was changed in October 2021 from ≥2 years to ≥6 months. Third, recommendations for vaccination of adults aged ≥65 years have been modified. ACIP recommends that adults aged ≥65 years preferentially receive any one of the following higher dose or adjuvanted influenza vaccines: quadrivalent high-dose inactivated influenza vaccine (HD-IIV4), quadrivalent recombinant influenza vaccine (RIV4), or quadrivalent adjuvanted inactivated influenza vaccine (aIIV4). If none of these three vaccines is available at an opportunity for vaccine administration, then any other age-appropriate influenza vaccine should be used

This report focuses on recommendations for the use of vaccines for the prevention and control of seasonal influenza during the 2022–23 influenza season in the United States. A brief summary of the recommendations and a link to the most recent Background Document containing additional information are available at

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/hcp/acip-recs/vacc-specific/flu.html. These recommendations apply to U.S.-licensed influenza vaccines used according to Food and Drug Administration–licensed indications. Updates and other information are available from CDC’s influenza website (https://www.cdc.gov/flu). Vaccination and health care providers should check this site periodically for additional information.

Influenza vaccination and mortality among adults with heart failure in an integrated healthcare delivery system, 2009-2018

BACKGROUND

Influenza infection can result in decompensation or exacerbation of heart failure (HF) symptoms, hospitalization, and death.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association of influenza vaccination with mortality and hospitalization during influenza and non-influenza seasons between 2009 and 2018.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

In this prospective, observational cohort study, we included Kaiser Permanente Southern California members with a HF diagnosis prior to September 1 each year from 2009 to 2017.

EXPOSURE

The first influenza vaccination in each season (September 1 to May 31) was recorded. Vaccinated/unvaccinated patients were matched 1:1 on age, sex, and ejection fraction at the vaccination date (n-total = 74,870).

MAIN OUTCOMES

Patients were followed through the end of each influenza season for all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes included cardiovascular mortality and all-cause hospitalization. In a sensitivity analysis, we examined mortality in the non-influenza season.

RESULTS

Influenza vaccinated vs unvaccinated patients had more comorbidities and higher healthcare utilization. After multivariable adjustment for utilization, sociodemographics, comorbidities, and medications, influenza vaccinated vs unvaccinated patients had a lower risk of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality during the influenza season (hazard ratio [HR] 0.66, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.63, 0.70 and HR 0.68, 95% CI 0.63, 0.74, respectively) but a higher risk of all-cause hospitalization (HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.21, 1.31). There was no association between influenza vaccination and all-cause or cardiovascular mortality during the non-influenza season (HR 0.99, 95% CI 0.89, 1.09 and HR 1.00, 95% CI 0.84, 1.21, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza vaccination in HF patients was associated with a lower risk of mortality during the influenza season. Our findings provide support for recommendations of universal influenza vaccination in patients with HF.

Influenza Vaccination for Cardiovascular Prevention: Further Insights from the IAMI Trial and an Updated Meta-analysis

Purpose of Review

Influenza infection is a significant, well-established cause of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and CV mortality. Influenza vaccination has been shown to reduce major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and CV mortality. Therefore, major society guidelines have given a strong recommendation for its use in patients with established CVD or high risk for CVD. Nevertheless, influenza vaccination remains underutilized. Historically, influenza vaccination is administered to stable outpatients. Until recently, the safety and efficacy of influenza vaccination among patients with acute myocardial infarction (MI) had not been established.

Recent Findings

The recently published Influenza Vaccination after Myocardial Infarction (IAMI) trial showed that influenza vaccination within 72 h of hospitalization for MI led to a significant 28% reduction in MACE and a 41% reduction in CV mortality, without any excess in serious adverse events. Additionally, we newly performed an updated meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials (RCTs) including IAMI and the recent Influenza Vaccine to Prevent Adverse Vascular Events (IVVE) trial. In pooled analysis of 8 RCTs with a total of 14,420 patients, influenza vaccine, as compared with control/placebo, was associated with significantly lower risk of MACE at follow-up [RR 0.75 (95%CI 0.57–0.97), I² 56%].

Summary

The recent IAMI trial showed that influenza vaccination in patients with recent MI is safe and efficacious at reducing CV morbidity and mortality. Our updated meta-analysis confirms a 25% reduction in MACE. The influenza vaccine should be strongly encouraged in all patients with CVD and incorporated as an essential facet of post-MI care and secondary CVD prevention.

T Cell Response to Influenza Vaccination Remains Intact in Adults with Congenital Heart Disease Who Underwent Early Thymectomy

Introduction

T cells developed in the thymus play a key role in vaccine immunity. Thymectomy occurs during infant congenital heart surgery and results in an altered T cell distribution. We investigated if adults with congenital heart disease (ACHD) who underwent early thymectomy have a diminished response to influenza vaccination.

Methods

Blood samples from ACHD with early thymectomy ≤ 1 year of age (ACHD-ET; n = 12), no thymectomy (ACHD-NT; n = 8), and healthy controls (HC; n = 14) were collected prior to and 4 weeks after influenza vaccination. Flow cytometric analysis of T cell subsets and vaccine-specific cytokine expressing CD4⁺ T cells as well as hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assays were completed.

Results

The mean age of the cohort was 34 ± 10.6 years and similar in all groups. The mean frequencies of naïve CD4⁺ and CD8⁺ T cells were lower in ACHD-ET than in HC (32.7% vs. 46.5%, p = 0.027 and 37.2% vs. 57.4%, p = 0.032, respectively). There was a rise in the frequency of memory CD4⁺ and CD8⁺ T cells in the ACHD-ET group. The ACHD-NT had no statistical difference from either group. The frequencies of influenza-specific memory CD4⁺ T cells expressing IFN-γ and TNF-α were increased after vaccination across all groups (p < 0.05).

Conclusions

ACHD-ET have fewer naïve T cells, suggesting immunosenescence. Despite this, they show an adequate T Cell response to vaccination in young adulthood. Our findings support routine vaccination is effective in this population, but research into older ACHD is necessary.

Effectiveness of the influenza vaccine at reducing adverse events in patients with heart failure: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The association between influenza and adverse vascular events in patients with heart failure is well documented. The effect of the influenza vaccine on preventing such adverse events is uncertain. This systematic review and meta-analysis addressed whether vaccination against influenza reduces adverse vascular events and mortality in heart failure patients.

METHODS

MEDLINE and EMBASE databases were comprehensively searched, study screening and quality assessment were completed, and data was synthesized. Eligible studies investigated heart failure patients who received the influenza vaccine, and reported outcomes within 12 months, compared to heart failure patients who did not receive the influenza vaccine. The following 6 outcomes were assessed: all-cause mortality, cardiovascular-related mortality, all-cause hospitalization, cardiovascular-related hospitalization, non-fatal myocardial infarction, and non-fatal stroke. Risk of bias was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale and a GRADE assessment was completed. A random-effects meta-analysis was performed to estimate the pooled risk ratio (RR), 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and heterogeneity using I² statistics.

RESULTS

After synthesizing data from 7 non-randomized studies (247,842 patients), the results demonstrate the risk of all-cause mortality is significantly reduced within 12 months of a heart failure patient receiving the influenza vaccine (RR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.71-0.79; P<0.0001); very low certainty of evidence. The risk of cardiovascular-related mortality was significantly reduced (RR = 0.77, 95% CI 0.73-0.81; P<0.0001); low certainty of evidence. The pooled risk of all-cause hospitalization was higher among vaccinated heart failure patients (RR = 1.24, 95% CI 1.13-1.35; P<0.0001), based on two studies; very low certainty of evidence and considerable heterogeneity (I² = 90%). No eligible studies assessed cardiovascular-related hospitalization, non-fatal myocardial infarction, or non-fatal stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza vaccination appears to reduce adverse cardiovascular events, although the certainty of the evidence is low or very low. Rigorous randomized controlled trial evidence is needed to further examine the protective effect of the influenza vaccine in heart failure patients.

Association of Influenza Vaccination With Cardiovascular Risk: A Meta-analysis

Importance

Influenza infection is associated with increased cardiovascular hospitalization and mortality. Our prior systematic review and meta-analysis hypothesized that influenza vaccination was associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular events.

Objective

To evaluate, via an updated meta-analysis, if seasonal influenza vaccination is associated with a lower risk of fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular events and assess whether the newest cardiovascular outcome trial results are consistent with prior findings.

Data Sources

A previously published meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and a large 2021 cardiovascular outcome trial.

Study Selection

Studies with RCTs published between 2000 and 2021 that randomized participants to either influenza vaccine or placebo/control. Eligible participants were inpatients and outpatients recruited for international multicenter RCTs and randomized to receive either influenza vaccine or placebo/control.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

PRISMA guidelines were followed in the extraction of study details, and risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane Collaboration tool. Trial quality was evaluated using Cochrane criteria. Data were analyzed January 2020 and December 2021.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Random-effects Mantel-Haenszel risk ratios (RRs) and 95% CIs were derived for a composite of major adverse cardiovascular events and cardiovascular mortality within 12 months of follow-up. Where available, analyses were stratified by patients with and without recent acute coronary syndrome (ACS) within 1 year of randomization.

Results

Six published RCTs comprising a total of 9001 patients were included (mean age, 65.5 years; 42.5% women; 52.3% with a cardiac history). Overall, influenza vaccine was associated with a lower risk of composite cardiovascular events (3.6% vs 5.4%; RR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.53-0.83; P < .001). A treatment interaction was detected between patients with recent ACS (RR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.41-0.75) and without recent ACS (RR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.68-1.47) (P for interaction = .02). For cardiovascular mortality, a treatment interaction was also detected between patients with recent ACS (RR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.23-0.85) and without recent ACS (RR, 1.45; 95% CI, 0.84-2.50) (P for interaction = .006), while 1.7% of vaccine recipients died of cardiovascular causes compared with 2.5% of placebo or control recipients (RR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.42-1.30; P = .29).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, receipt of influenza vaccination was associated with a 34% lower risk of major adverse cardiovascular events, and individuals with recent ACS had a 45% lower risk. Given influenza poses a threat to population health during the COVID-19 pandemic, it is integral to counsel high-risk patients on the cardiovascular benefits of influenza vaccination.