Practical Recommendations on Quantifying and Interpreting Treatment Effects in the Presence of Terminal Competing Risks: A Review

Communicating and understanding statistical measures when quantifying the between-group difference in competing risks

Competing risks issues are common in clinical trials and epidemiological studies for patients in follow-up who may experience a variety of possible outcomes. Under such competing risks, two hazard-based statistical methods, cause-specific hazard (CSH) and subdistribution hazard (SDH), are frequently used to assess treatment effects among groups. However, the outcomes of the CSH-based and SDH-based methods have a close connection with the proportional hazards (CSH or SDH) assumption and may have an non-intuitive interpretation. Recently, restricted mean time lost (RMTL) has been used as an alternative summary measure for analysing competing risks, due to its clinical interpretability and robustness to the proportional hazards assumption. Considering the above approaches, we summarize the differences between hazard-based and RMTL-based methods from the aspects of practical interpretation, proportional hazards model assumption and the selection of restricted time points, and propose corresponding suggestions for the analysis of between-group differences under competing risks. Moreover, an R package 'cRMTL' and corresponding step-by-step guidance are available to help users for applying these approaches.

Accounting for Competing Events When Evaluating Long-Term Outcomes in Survivors of Critical Illness

The clinical trajectory of survivors of critical illness after hospital discharge can be complex and highly unpredictable. Assessing long-term outcomes after critical illness can be challenging because of possible competing events, such as all-cause death during follow-up (which precludes the occurrence of an event of particular interest). In this perspective, we explore challenges and methodological implications of competing events during the assessment of long-term outcomes in survivors of critical illness. In the absence of competing events, researchers evaluating long-term outcomes commonly use the Kaplan-Meier method and the Cox proportional hazards model to analyze time-to-event (survival) data. However, traditional analytical and modeling techniques can yield biased estimates in the presence of competing events. We present different estimands of interest and the use of different analytical approaches, including changes to the outcome of interest, Fine and Gray regression models, cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models, and generalized methods (such as inverse probability weighting). Finally, we provide code and a simulated dataset to exemplify the application of the different analytical strategies in addition to overall reporting recommendations.

Prevalent diabetes and long-term cardiovascular outcomes in adult sepsis survivors: a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Sepsis survivors are at elevated risk for cardiovascular disease during long-term follow-up. Whether diabetes influences cardiovascular risk after sepsis survival remains unknown. We sought to describe the association of diabetes with long-term cardiovascular outcomes in adult sepsis survivors.

METHODS

Population-based cohort study in the province of Ontario, Canada (2008-2017). Adult survivors of a first sepsis-associated hospitalization, without pre-existing cardiovascular disease, were included. Main exposure was pre-existing diabetes (any type). The primary outcome was the composite of myocardial infarction, stroke, and cardiovascular death. Patients were followed up to 5 years from discharge date until outcome occurrence or end of study period (March 2018). We used propensity score matching (i.e., 1:1 to patients with sepsis but no pre-existing diabetes) to adjust for measured confounding at baseline. Cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models with robust standard errors were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) alongside 95% confidence intervals (CI). A main secondary analysis evaluated the modification of the association between sepsis and cardiovascular disease by pre-existing diabetes.

RESULTS

78,638 patients with pre-existing diabetes who had a sepsis-associated hospitalization were matched to patients hospitalized for sepsis but without diabetes. Mean age of patients was 71 years, and 55% were female. Median duration from diabetes diagnosis was 9.8 years; mean HbA1c was 7.1%. Adult sepsis survivors with pre-existing diabetes experienced a higher hazard of major cardiovascular disease (HR 1.25; 95% CI 1.22-1.29)-including myocardial infarction (HR 1.40; 95% CI 1.34-1.47) and stroke (HR 1.24; 95% CI 1.18-1.29)-during long-term follow-up compared to sepsis survivors without diabetes. Pre-existing diabetes modified the association between sepsis and cardiovascular disease (risk difference: 2.3%; 95% CI 2.0-2.6 and risk difference: 1.8%; 95% CI 1.6-2.0 for the effect of sepsis-compared to no sepsis-among patients with and without diabetes, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Sepsis survivors with pre-existing diabetes experience a higher long-term hazard of major cardiovascular events when compared to sepsis survivors without diabetes. Compared to patients without sepsis, the absolute risk increase of cardiovascular events after sepsis is higher in patients with diabetes (i.e., diabetes intensified the higher cardiovascular risk induced by sepsis).

Post-mastectomy radiotherapy for women with early breast cancer and one to three positive lymph nodes

BACKGROUND

Continual improvement in adjuvant therapies has resulted in a better prognosis for women diagnosed with breast cancer. A surrogate marker used to detect the spread of disease after treatment of breast cancer is local and regional recurrence. The risk of local and regional recurrence after mastectomy increases with the number of axillary lymph nodes affected by cancer. There is a consensus to use radiotherapy as an adjuvant treatment after mastectomy (postmastectomy radiotherapy (PMRT)) in women diagnosed with breast cancer and found to have disease in four or more positive axillary lymph nodes. Despite data showing almost double the risk of local and regional recurrence in women treated with mastectomy and found to have one to three positive lymph nodes, there is a lack of international consensus on the use of PMRT in this group.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of PMRT in women diagnosed with early breast cancer and found to have one to three positive axillary lymph nodes.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Breast Cancer Group's Specialised Register, CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) and ClinicalTrials.gov up to 24 September 2021.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs). The inclusion criteria included women diagnosed with breast cancer treated with simple or modified radical mastectomy and axillary surgery (sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) alone or those undergoing axillary lymph node clearance with or without prior SLNB). We included only women receiving PMRT using X-rays (electron and photon radiation), and we defined the radiotherapy dose to reflect what is currently being recommended (i.e. 40 Gray (Gy) to 50 Gy in 15 to 25/28 fractions in 3 to 5 weeks. The included studies did not administer any boost to the tumour bed. In this review, we excluded studies using neoadjuvant chemotherapy as a supportive treatment before surgery.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used Covidence to screen records. We collected data on tumour characteristics, adjuvant treatments and the outcomes of local and regional recurrence, overall survival, disease-free survival, time to progression, short- and long-term adverse events and quality of life. We reported on time-to-event outcome measures using the hazard ratio (HR) and subdistribution HR. We used Cochrane's risk of bias tool (RoB 1), and we presented overall certainty of the evidence using the GRADE approach.

MAIN RESULTS

The RCTs included in this review were subgroup analyses of original RCTs conducted in the 1980s to assess the effectiveness of PMRT. Hence, the type and duration of adjuvant systemic treatments used in the studies included in this review were suboptimal compared to the current standard of care. The review involved three RCTs with a total of 829 women diagnosed with breast cancer and low-volume axillary disease. Amongst the included studies, only a single study pertained to the modern-day radiotherapy practice. The results from this one study showed a reduction of local and regional recurrence (HR 0.20, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.13 to 0.33, 1 study, 522 women; low-certainty evidence) and improvement in overall survival with PMRT (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.97, 1 study, 522 women; moderate-certainty evidence). One of the other studies using radiotherapy techniques that do not reflect modern-day practice reported on disease-free survival in women with low-volume axillary disease (subdistribution HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.41 to 0.96, 1 study, 173 women). None of the included studies reported on PMRT side effects or quality-of-life outcome measures.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Based on one study, the use of PMRT in women diagnosed with breast cancer and low-volume axillary disease indicated a reduction in locoregional recurrence and an improvement in survival. There is a need for more research to be conducted using modern-day radiotherapy equipment and methods to support and supplement the review findings.

Immune changes over time and survival in patients with cirrhosis treated with non-selective beta-blockers: A prospective longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

Treatment with non-selective beta-blockers (NSBB) has been associated with anti-inflammatory and anti-cancer effects in patients with cirrhosis. This study aims to analyze the impact of chronic NSBB treatment on immune activation and disease progression in stable outpatients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

In this prospective follow-up of 150 patients with cirrhosis, 39 received treatment with NSBB. Blood samples were taken every 6-9 months, and immune and adrenergic variables were measured. Mixed linear models were used to assess the effect of NSBB on these variables over time. Multivariate Cox regression was used to study associations with adverse clinical events (hepatocellular carcinoma, death, or liver transplant).

RESULTS

Median follow-up was 1635 days. NSBB treatment was associated with significantly lower levels of IL-6 (β - 4.7; 95% confidence interval [CI] -6.9, -2.6) throughout the study. During follow-up, 11 patients developed hepatocellular carcinoma, 32 died, and 4 underwent liver transplant. Patients with higher concentrations of IL-10, IL-6 and IFN-γ developed more clinical events. Event-free survival was significantly better in patients treated with NSBB (hazard ratio 0.36, 95% CI 0.18, 0.71) in a multivariate Cox regression adjusted for Child-Pugh-Score, esophageal varices, and platelets.

CONCLUSION

Chronic treatment with NSBB in patients with stable cirrhosis gives rise to a different state of immune activation, characterized by lower concentrations of IL-6 over time, and it is associated with a reduced risk of adverse event (death, hepatocellular carcinoma, or transplant), after controlling for disease severity.

Risk Factors for Major Cardiovascular Events in Adult Sepsis Survivors: A Population-Based Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES

To describe risk factors for major cardiovascular events in adults following hospital discharge after sepsis.

DESIGN

Population-based cohort study.

SETTING

Ontario, Canada (2008-2017).

PATIENTS

Adult patients (age 18 yr or older) who survived a first sepsis hospitalization without preexisting cardiovascular disease.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

The primary composite outcome was myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular death up to 5 years following hospital discharge. We used cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models that accounted for the competing risk of noncardiovascular death to describe factors associated with major cardiovascular events. We identified 268,259 adult patients without cardiovascular disease (median age, 72 yr), of whom 10.4% experienced a major cardiovascular event during a median follow-up of 3 years. After multivariable adjustment, age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.53 for every 10 yr; 95% CI, 1.51-1.54), male sex (HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.20-1.26), diabetes mellitus (HR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.21-1.27), hypertension (HR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.30-1.38), prevalent atrial fibrillation (HR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.40-1.52), and chronic kidney disease (HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.06-1.16) were associated with major cardiovascular events during long-term follow-up. Sepsis characteristics such as site of infection (pneumonia vs other: HR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.05-1.12), septic shock (HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.05-1.11), and renal replacement therapy (HR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.38-1.64) were also associated with subsequent cardiovascular events. In an analysis restricting to patients with troponin values measured during the hospitalization (26,400 patients), an elevated troponin was also associated with subsequent cardiovascular events (HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.13-1.33).

CONCLUSIONS

Classic cardiovascular risk factors, comorbid conditions, and characteristics of the sepsis episode were associated with a higher hazard of major cardiovascular events in adult sepsis survivors. These findings may inform enrichment strategies for future studies.

Target Trial Emulation Using Hospital-Based Observational Data: Demonstration and Application in COVID-19

Methodological biases are common in observational studies evaluating treatment effectiveness. The objective of this study is to emulate a target trial in a competing risks setting using hospital-based observational data. We extend established methodology accounting for immortal time bias and time-fixed confounding biases to a setting where no survival information beyond hospital discharge is available: a condition common to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) research data. This exemplary study includes a cohort of 618 hospitalized patients with COVID-19. We describe methodological opportunities and challenges that cannot be overcome applying traditional statistical methods. We demonstrate the practical implementation of this trial emulation approach via clone-censor-weight techniques. We undertake a competing risk analysis, reporting the cause-specific cumulative hazards and cumulative incidence probabilities. Our analysis demonstrates that a target trial emulation framework can be extended to account for competing risks in COVID-19 hospital studies. In our analysis, we avoid immortal time bias, time-fixed confounding bias, and competing risks bias simultaneously. Choosing the length of the grace period is justified from a clinical perspective and has an important advantage in ensuring reliable results. This extended trial emulation with the competing risk analysis enables an unbiased estimation of treatment effects, along with the ability to interpret the effectiveness of treatment on all clinically important outcomes.

Drugs to reduce bleeding and transfusion in major open vascular or endovascular surgery: a systematic review and network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Vascular surgery may be followed by internal bleeding due to inadequate surgical haemostasis, abnormal clotting, or surgical complications. Bleeding ranges from minor, with no transfusion requirement, to massive, requiring multiple blood product transfusions. There are a number of drugs, given systemically or applied locally, which may reduce the need for blood transfusion.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effectiveness and safety of anti-fibrinolytic and haemostatic drugs and agents in reducing bleeding and the need for blood transfusion in people undergoing major vascular surgery or vascular procedures with a risk of moderate or severe (> 500 mL) blood loss.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials; MEDLINE; Embase; CINAHL, and Transfusion Evidence Library. We also searched the WHO ICTRP and ClinicalTrials.gov trial registries for ongoing and unpublished trials. Searches used a combination of MeSH and free text terms from database inception to 31 March 2022, without restriction on language or publication status.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) in adults of drug treatments to reduce bleeding due to major vascular surgery or vascular procedures with a risk of moderate or severe blood loss, which used placebo, usual care or another drug regimen as control.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used standard Cochrane methods. Our primary outcomes were units of red cells transfused and all-cause mortality. Our secondary outcomes included risk of receiving an allogeneic blood product, risk of reoperation or repeat procedure due to bleeding, risk of a thromboembolic event, risk of a serious adverse event and length of hospital stay. We used GRADE to assess certainty of evidence.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 22 RCTs with 3393 participants analysed, of which one RCT with 69 participants was reported only in abstract form, with no usable data. Seven RCTs evaluated systemic drug treatments (three aprotinin, two desmopressin, two tranexamic acid) and 15 RCTs evaluated topical drug treatments (drug-containing bioabsorbable dressings or glues), including fibrin, thrombin, collagen, gelatin, synthetic sealants and one investigational new agent. Most trials were conducted in high-income countries and the majority of the trials only included participants undergoing elective surgery. We also identified two ongoing RCTs. We were unable to perform the planned network meta-analysis due to the sparse reporting of outcomes relevant to this review. Systemic drug treatments We identified seven trials of three systemic drugs: aprotinin, desmopressin and tranexamic acid, all with placebo controls. The trials of aprotinin and desmopressin were small with very low-certainty evidence for all of our outcomes. Tranexamic acid versus placebo was the systemic drug comparison with the largest number of participants (2 trials; 1460 participants), both at low risk of bias. The largest of these included a total of 9535 individuals undergoing a number of different higher risk surgeries and reported limited information on the vascular subgroup (1399 participants). Neither trial reported the number of units of red cells transfused per participant up to 30 days. Three outcomes were associated with very low-certainty evidence due to the very wide confidence intervals (CIs) resulting from small study sizes and low number of events. These were: all-cause mortality up to 30 days; number of participants requiring an allogeneic blood transfusion up to 30 days; and risk of requiring a repeat procedure or operation due to bleeding. Tranexamic acid may have no effect on the risk of thromboembolic events up to 30 days (risk ratio (RR) 1.10, 95% CI 0.88 to 1.36; 1 trial, 1360 participants; low-certainty evidence due to imprecision). There is one large ongoing trial (8320 participants) comparing tranexamic acid versus placebo in people undergoing non-cardiac surgery who are at high risk of requiring a red cell transfusion. This aims to complete recruitment in April 2023. This trial has primary outcomes of proportion of participants transfused with red blood cells and incidence of venous thromboembolism (DVT or PE). Topical drug treatments Most trials of topical drug treatments were at high risk of bias due to their open-label design (compared with usual care, or liquids were compared with sponges). All of the trials were small, most were very small, and few reported clinically relevant outcomes in the postoperative period. Fibrin sealant versus usual care was the topical drug comparison with the largest number of participants (5 trials, 784 participants). The five trials that compared fibrin sealant with usual care were all at high risk of bias, due to the open-label trial design with no measures put in place to minimise reporting bias. All of the trials were funded by pharmaceutical companies. None of the five trials reported the number of red cells transfused per participant up to 30 days or the number of participants requiring an allogeneic blood transfusion up to 30 days. The other three outcomes were associated with very low-certainty evidence with wide confidence intervals due to small sample sizes and the low number of events, these were: all-cause mortality up to 30 days; risk of requiring a repeat procedure due to bleeding; and risk of thromboembolic disease up to 30 days. We identified one large trial (500 participants) comparing fibrin sealant versus usual care in participants undergoing abdominal aortic aneurysm repair, which has not yet started recruitment. This trial lists death due to arterial disease and reintervention rates as primary outcomes.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Because of a lack of data, we are uncertain whether any systemic or topical treatments used to reduce bleeding due to major vascular surgery have an effect on: all-cause mortality up to 30 days; risk of requiring a repeat procedure or operation due to bleeding; number of red cells transfused per participant up to 30 days or the number of participants requiring an allogeneic blood transfusion up to 30 days. There may be no effect of tranexamic acid on the risk of thromboembolic events up to 30 days, this is important as there has been concern that this risk may be increased. Trials with sample size targets of thousands of participants and clinically relevant outcomes are needed, and we look forward to seeing the results of the ongoing trials in the future.

A systematic review of the safety and efficacy of convalescent plasma or immunoglobulin treatment for people with severe respiratory viral infections due to coronaviruses or influenza

OBJECTIVE

Evaluate the safety and effectiveness of convalescent plasma (CP) or hyperimmune immunoglobulin (hIVIG) in severe respiratory disease caused by coronaviruses or influenza, in patients of all ages requiring hospital admission.

METHODS

We searched multiple electronic databases for all publications to 12th October 2020, and RCTs only to 28th June 2021. Two reviewers screened, extracted, and analysed data. We used Cochrane ROB (Risk of Bias)1 for RCTs, ROBINS-I for non-RCTs, and GRADE to assess the certainty of the evidence.

RESULTS

Data from 30 RCTs and 2 non-RCTs showed no overall difference between groups for all-cause mortality and adverse events in four comparisons. Certainty of the evidence was downgraded for high ROB and imprecision. (1) CP versus standard care (SoC) (20 RCTS, 2 non-RCTs, very-low to moderate-high certainty); (2) CP versus biologically active control (6 RCTs, very-low certainty); (3) hIVIG versus SoC (3 RCTs, very-low certainty); (4) early CP versus deferred CP (1 RCT, very-low certainty). Subgrouping by titre improved precision in one outcome (30-day mortality) for the 'COVID high-titre' category in Comparison 1 (no difference, high certainty) and Comparison 2 (favours CP, very-low certainty). Post hoc analysis suggests a possible benefit of CP in patients testing negative for antibodies at baseline, compared with those testing positive.

CONCLUSION

A minimum titre should be established and ensured for a positive biological response to the therapy. Further research on the impact of CP/hIVIG in patients who have not yet produced antibodies to the virus would be useful to target therapies at groups who will potentially benefit the most.

The framing of time-dependent machine learning models improves risk estimation among young individuals with acute coronary syndromes

Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is a common cause of death in individuals older than 55 years. Although younger individuals are less frequently seen with ACS, this clinical event has increasing incidence trends, shows high recurrence rates and triggers considerable economic burden. Young individuals with ACS (yACS) are usually underrepresented and show idiosyncratic epidemiologic features compared to older subjects. These differences may justify why available risk prediction models usually penalize yACS with higher false positive rates compared to older subjects. We hypothesized that exploring temporal framing structures such as prediction time, observation windows and subgroup-specific prediction, could improve time-dependent prediction metrics. Among individuals who have experienced ACS (n_{global_cohort} = 6341 and n_yACS = 2242), the predictive accuracy for adverse clinical events was optimized by using specific rules for yACS and splitting short-term and long-term prediction windows, leading to the detection of 80% of events, compared to 69% by using a rule designed for the global cohort.

Informative Censoring-A Cause of Bias in Estimating COVID-19 Mortality Using Hospital Data

(1) Background: Several retrospective observational analyzed treatment outcomes for COVID-19; (2) Methods: Inverse probability of censoring weighting (IPCW) was applied to correct for bias due to informative censoring in database of hospitalized patients who did and did not receive convalescent plasma; (3) Results: When compared with an IPCW analysis, overall mortality was overestimated using an unadjusted Kaplan-Meier curve, and hazard ratios for the older age group compared to the youngest were underestimated using the Cox proportional hazard models and 30-day mortality; (4) Conclusions: An IPCW analysis provided stabilizing weights by hospital admission.

Quantifying Treatment Effects in Trials with Multiple Event-Time Outcomes

BACKGROUND

Data on the occurrence times of multiple outcomes, reflecting the temporal profile of disease burden/progression, have been used to estimate treatment effects in various recent randomized trials. Most procedures for analyzing these data require specific model assumptions. When the assumptions are not met, the results may be misleading. Robust, model-free procedures for study design and analysis that enable clinically meaningful interpretations are warranted.

METHODS

For each treatment group, we constructed and summarized the estimated mean cumulative count of events over time by the area under the curve (AUC), which can be interpreted as the mean total event-free time lost from multiple undesirable outcomes. A higher curve, and resulting larger AUC, implies a worse treatment. The treatment effect is quantified by the ratio and/or difference of AUCs. The timing and occurrence of recurrent heart failure hospitalizations (HFHs) and cardiovascular (CV) death from Prospective Comparison of ARNI with ARB Global Outcomes in HF with Preserved Ejection Fraction (PARAGON-HF), comparing sacubitril/valsartan with valsartan, are presented for illustration. We also discuss the design of future studies on the basis of the proposed method.

RESULTS

With 48 months of follow-up, estimated AUCs, representing the total event-free time lost to HFHs and CV death, were 11.3 and 13.1 event-months for sacubitril/valsartan and valsartan, respectively. The ratio of these AUCs was 0.86 (95% confidence interval, 0.75 to 1.00; P=0.049), a 14% reduction of disease burden favoring combination therapy. A future study, similar to PARAGON-HF, designed using the new proposal would require fewer patients would than a conventional time-to-first-event analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed method is robust and model-free and provides a clinically interpretable, time-scale summary of the treatment effect. (Funded by National Institutes of Health.).

Handling Informative Premature Treatment or Study Discontinuation for Assessing Between-Group Differences in a Comparative Oncology Trial

This decision analytical model study examines premature treatment discontinuation in clinical trials for patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma.

Biomarker prognostication across Universal Definition of Heart Failure stages

AIM

The Universal Definition of Heart Failure (UDHF) provides a framework for staging risk for HF events. It is not clear whether prognostic biomarkers have different meaning across UDHF stages. We sought to evaluate performance of biomarkers to predict HF events among high-risk patients undergoing coronary and/or peripheral angiography categorized into UDHF stages.

METHODS

One thousand two hundred thirty-five individuals underwent coronary and/or peripheral angiography were enrolled. Study participants were categorized into UDHF Stage A (at risk), Stage B (pre-HF), and Stage C or D (HF, including end stage) and grouped into Stage A/B and C/D. Biomarkers and clinical variables were used to develop prognostic models. Other measures examined included total HF hospitalizations.

RESULTS

Over a median of 3.67 years of follow-up, 155 cardiovascular (CV) deaths occurred, and 299 patients were hospitalized with acute HF. In patients with Stage A/B, galectin-3 (HR = 1.52, P = 0.03), endothelin-1 (HR = 2.16, P = 0.001), and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP; HR = 1.43, P < 0.001) were associated with incident CV death/HF hospitalization. In Stage C/D, NT-proBNP (HR = 1.26, P = 0.006), soluble urokinase-type plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR; HR = 1.57, P = 0.007) and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP; HR = 1.15, P = 0.01) were associated with these outcomes. Higher biomarker concentrations were associated with greater total burden of HF events in Stages A/B and C/D.

CONCLUSIONS

Among higher risk individuals undergoing angiographic procedures, different biomarkers improve risk stratification in different UDHF stages of HF. More precise prognostication may offer a window of opportunity to initiate targeted preventive measures.

Oral anticoagulant decreases stroke recurrence in patients with atrial fibrillation detected after stroke

Background

Atrial fibrillation detected after stroke (AFDAS) has a lower risk of ischemic stroke recurrence than known atrial fibrillation (KAF). While the benefit of oral anticoagulants (OAC) for preventing ischemic stroke recurrence in KAF is well established, their role in patients with AFDAS is more controversial. This study aimed to evaluate the association between OAC use and the risk of recurrent ischemic stroke in patients with AFDAS in a real-world setting.

Methods

This nationwide retrospective cohort study was conducted using the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. Patients hospitalized with a first-ever ischemic stroke and AFDAS confirmed within 30 days after hospitalization were assigned to OAC and non-OAC cohorts. Inverse probability of treatment weighting was applied to balance the baseline characteristics of the cohorts. The primary outcome was ischemic stroke recurrence. Secondary outcomes were intracranial hemorrhage (ICH), death, and the composite outcome of "ischemic stroke recurrence, ICH, or death." Multivariate Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).

Results

A total of 4,508 hospitalized patients with stroke and AFDAS were identified. Based on OAC use, 2,856 and 1,652 patients were assigned to the OAC and non-OAC groups, respectively. During the follow-up period (median duration, 2.76 years), the OAC cohort exhibited a lower risk of ischemic stroke recurrence (aHR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.70-0.99), death (aHR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.58-0.73), and composite outcome (aHR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.63-0.78) than did the non-OAC cohort. The risk of ICH (aHR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.62-1.50) was not significantly different between the two cohorts.

Conclusion

OAC use in patients with AFDAS was associated with reduced risk of ischemic stroke recurrence, without an increased risk of ICH. This supports current guidelines recommending OACs for secondary stroke prevention in patients with AF, regardless of the time of diagnosis.