Use of Opioid Overdose Deaths Reported in One State's Criminal Justice, Hospital, and Prescription Databases to Identify Risk of Opioid Fatalities

When Effects Cannot be Estimated: Redefining Estimands to Understand the Effects of Naloxone Access Laws

Violations of the positivity assumption (also called the common support condition) challenge health policy research and can result in significant bias, large variance, and invalid inference. We define positivity in the single- and multiple-timepoint (i.e., longitudinal) health policy evaluation setting, and discuss real-world threats to positivity. We show empirical evidence of the practical positivity violations that can result when attempting to estimate the effects of health policies (in this case, Naloxone Access Laws). In such scenarios, an alternative is to estimate the effect of a shift in law enactment (e.g., the effect if enactment had been delayed by some number of years). Such an effect corresponds to what is called a modified treatment policy, and dramatically weakens the required positivity assumption, thereby offering a means to estimate policy effects even in scenarios with serious positivity problems. We apply the approach to define and estimate the longitudinal effects of Naloxone Access Laws on opioid overdose rates.

Ensemble learning to predict opioid-related overdose using statewide prescription drug monitoring program and hospital discharge data in the state of Tennessee

Objective

To develop and validate algorithms for predicting 30-day fatal and nonfatal opioid-related overdose using statewide data sources including prescription drug monitoring program data, Hospital Discharge Data System data, and Tennessee (TN) vital records. Current overdose prevention efforts in TN rely on descriptive and retrospective analyses without prognostication.

Materials and Methods

Study data included 3 041 668 TN patients with 71 479 191 controlled substance prescriptions from 2012 to 2017. Statewide data and socioeconomic indicators were used to train, ensemble, and calibrate 10 nonparametric “weak learner” models. Validation was performed using area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC), area under the precision recall curve, risk concentration, and Spiegelhalter z-test statistic.

Results

Within 30 days, 2574 fatal overdoses occurred after 4912 prescriptions (0.0069%) and 8455 nonfatal overdoses occurred after 19 460 prescriptions (0.027%). Discrimination and calibration improved after ensembling (AUROC: 0.79–0.83; Spiegelhalter P value: 0–.12). Risk concentration captured 47–52% of cases in the top quantiles of predicted probabilities.

Discussion

Partitioning and ensembling enabled all study data to be used given computational limits and helped mediate case imbalance. Predicting risk at the prescription level can aggregate risk to the patient, provider, pharmacy, county, and regional levels. Implementing these models into Tennessee Department of Health systems might enable more granular risk quantification. Prospective validation with more recent data is needed.

Conclusion

Predicting opioid-related overdose risk at statewide scales remains difficult and models like these, which required a partnership between an academic institution and state health agency to develop, may complement traditional epidemiological methods of risk identification and inform public health decisions.

An Emergency Preparedness Response to Opioid-Prescribing Enforcement Actions in Maryland, 2018-2019

Federal and state enforcement authorities have increasingly intervened on the criminal overprescribing of opioids. However, little is known about the health effects these enforcement actions have on patients experiencing disrupted access to prescription opioids or medication-assisted treatment/medication for opioid use disorder. Simultaneously, opioid death rates have increased. In response, the Maryland Department of Health (MDH) has worked to coordinate mitigation strategies with enforcement partners (defined as any federal, state, or local enforcement authority or other governmental investigative authority). One strategy is a standardized protocol to implement emergency response functions, including rapidly identifying health hazards with real-time data access, deploying resources locally, and providing credible messages to partners and the public. From January 2018 through October 2019, MDH used the protocol in response to 12 enforcement actions targeting 34 medical professionals. A total of 9624 patients received Schedule II-V controlled substance prescriptions from affected prescribers under investigation in the 6 months before the respective enforcement action; 9270 (96%) patients were residents of Maryland. Preliminary data indicate fatal overdose events and potential loss of follow-up care among the patient population experiencing disrupted health care as a result of an enforcement action. The success of the strategy hinged on endorsement by leadership; the establishment of federal, state, and local roles and responsibilities; and data sharing. MDH's approach, data sources, and lessons learned may support health departments across the country that are interested in conducting similar activities on the front lines of the opioid crisis.

Racial disparities in criminal legal system involvement among New York City overdose decedents: Implications for diversion programs

BACKGROUND

Past studies have identified frequent criminal legal system (CLS) involvement among overdose decedents and highlight the need for connecting individuals at risk of overdose with effective interventions during CLS encounters. While some programs divert individuals at risk of overdose to treatment during CLS encounters, eligibility is frequently restricted to those with limited prior CLS involvement. However, differences by race/ethnicity have not been examined.

OBJECTIVE

We assessed racial disparities in CLS involvement and eligibility for diversion following arrest for misdemeanor drug possession among New York City (NYC) overdose decedents.

METHODS

We matched death certificates for 5018 NYC residents who died of an unintentional drug overdose between 2008 and 2015 with CLS data and compared CLS involvement by race/ethnicity. We compared prior felony involvement at the first misdemeanor drug arrest by race/ethnicity among 2719 decedents with at least one misdemeanor drug arrest.

RESULTS

Higher proportions of Black (86 %, 95 % CI: 83.9, 87.9) and Latino (84 %, 95 % CI: 82.2, 86.0) decedents had ever been arrested than White decedents (73 %, 95 % CI: 71.5, 75.2). At the first misdemeanor drug arrest, Black and Latino decedents were twice as likely as White decedents to have a prior felony conviction, adjusted for age at arrest and gender (RR = 2.08, 95 % CI: 1.71, 2.54 and 2.14, 95 % CI: 1.77, 2.59, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Given racial disparities in CLS involvement among NYC overdose decedents, diversion eligibility is inequitable by race/ethnicity. Diversion programs that restrict eligibility based on prior CLS involvement will have racially disparate effects.

America's opioid crisis: the need for an integrated public health approach

Continued increases in overdose deaths and recent declines in life expectancy call for need to adopt comprehensive public health approaches to the United States opioid crisis and to establish an infrastructure to avert future crises. Successfully addressing the challenges posed by the crisis requires a translational, integrated approach that combines the contribution of neuroscience, pharmacology, epidemiology, treatment services and prevention. It also is critical to integrate interventions across settings, including healthcare, justice, education and social service systems. This review highlights four interconnected themes: (1) social determinants of health and disease; (2) person-centered approaches for prevention and treatment; (3) bridging the gap between implementation science and practice; and (4) using data to build learning systems of care, relevant to public health approaches to address the opioid crisis. We discuss how across these four themes taking into account the influence of developmental factors on brain function and sensitivity to environmental stimuli including drugs, addressing the complex interactions between biological and social factors, and promoting an ongoing dialogue across disciplines and settings will help accelerate public health advances that are evidenced based and sustainable to address the current opioid crisis and avert future ones.

Opioid overdose death following criminal justice involvement: Linking statewide corrections and hospital databases to detect individuals at highest risk

BACKGROUND

Persons who interact with criminal justice and hospital systems are particularly vulnerable to negative health outcomes, including overdose. However, the relationship between justice involvement, healthcare utilization and overdose risk is not well-understood. This data linkage study seeks to improve our understanding of the link between different types of justice involvement as well as hospital interaction and risk of fatal opioid overdose among persons with incarcerations, arrests and parole/probation records for drug and property crimes in Maryland.

METHODS

Maryland statewide criminal justice records were obtained for 2013-2016. Data were linked at the person-level to an all-payer hospitalization database and overdose death records for the same years. Logistic regression was performed to determine which criminal justice and hospital characteristics were associated with greatest risk of overdose death.

RESULTS

89,591 adults had criminal-justice records and were included in the study. During the 2013-2016 study period, 4108 (4.59 %) were hospitalized for a non-fatal opioid overdose, and 519 (0.58 %) died of opioid overdose. Strongest risk factors for death included being older, being white, having had an inpatient or emergency hospitalization, having had more arrests, having been arrested for a drug charge (vs. property charge), having a misdemeanor drug charge (vs. a felony charge), and having been released from incarceration during the study period.

CONCLUSION

Linking corrections and healthcare information can help advance understanding of risk and target overdose prevention interventions directed at justice-involved individuals with greatest need.

Dentistry's Role in Assessing and Managing Controlled Substance Risk: Historical Overview, Current Barriers, and Working Toward Best Practices

Dentistry is in a unique position among the health care professions to assess and manage the patient with controlled substance risk. The concern over opioid risk is not new, and historically dentists have had to balance the critical need for adequate pain care with the importance of recognizing the consequences of using controlled substances for their patients. Barriers for providing adequate patient assessment and management may be greater in dentistry than other health care fields, although these barriers can be recognized and overcome. Collaboration with cotreating providers will improve patient outcomes and reduce patient risk.

Risk factors for heroin use following release from jail or prison in adults in a Central Appalachian state between 2012-2017

Background

Corrections-involved adults with a history of opioid use disorder are at elevated risk of opioid overdose following release from correctional settings. Increased opioid prescribing restrictions and monitoring during a time when heroin is becoming cheaper and ubiquitous means that adults who misused prescription opioids prior to incarceration may be reentering communities at greater risk for heroin exposure and use.

Objectives

Determine risk factors of post-release heroin use among a sample of adults who participated in corrections-based drug treatment in Kentucky released between 2012 and 2017.

Methods

Survey data obtained as part of an ongoing evaluation of corrections-based drug treatment were examined.

Results

The final sample (N = 1,563) was majority male (80.9%). Nearly 11.0% reported past-year heroin use following their release. Depressive symptoms, polydrug use, and urban proximity were more common among participants reporting post-release heroin use. Heroin use 30 days prior to incarceration was associated with a 432.1% increase in odds of heroin use subsequent to incarceration. Post-release suicidal ideation increased odds of heroin use by 154.2%, whereas reporting satisfaction from social interactions decreased odds of use by nearly 60%. Post-release use of cocaine and diverted buprenorphine were associated with increased likelihood of heroin use during this time period, increasing odds by 469.1% and 265.9%, respectively. Residing in Central Appalachia subsequent to incarceration was associated with decreased likelihood of use.

Conclusions

In this sample, post-release heroin use was associated with concerning features, such as polydrug use, lack of social satisfaction, and suicidal ideation. These features can serve as clear targets for clinical intervention.

Characterization of diverted buprenorphine use among adults entering corrections-based drug treatment in Kentucky

BACKGROUND

Illicit, medically unsupervised use of buprenorphine (i.e., "diverted use") among vulnerable and underserved populations, such as corrections-involved adults, remains underexplored.

METHODS

Survey data (2016-2017) collected as part of a clinical assessment of incarcerated adults entering corrections-based substance use treatment in Kentucky were analyzed. For years examined, 12,915 completed the survey. Removing cases for participants who did not reside in Kentucky for >6 months during the one-year pre-incarceration period (n = 908) resulted in a final sample size of 12,007.

RESULTS

Over a quarter of the sample reported past-year diverted buprenorphine use prior to incarceration and 21.8 % reported use during the 30-days prior to incarceration, using 6.5 months and 14.3 days on average, respectively. A greater proportion of participants who reported diverted buprenorphine use had previously been engaged with some substance use treatment (77.0 %) and reported greater perceived need for treatment (79.4 %) compared to those who did not report use. Use was more likely among participants who were younger, white, male, and who reported rural or Appalachian residence. Diverted buprenorphine users also evidenced extensive polydrug use and presented with greater substance use disorder severity. Non-medical prescription opioid, heroin, and diverted methadone use were associated with increased odds of diverted buprenorphine use while kratom was not. Diverted methadone use was associated with a 252.9 % increased likelihood of diverted buprenorphine use.

CONCLUSIONS

Diverted buprenorphine use among participants in this sample was associated with concerning high-risk behaviors and may indicate barriers to accessing opioid agonist therapies for corrections-involved Kentucky residents, particularly those in rural Appalachia.