Trends in Mortality From Poisonings, Firearms, and All Other Injuries by Intent in the US, 1999-2020

Global trends in youth suicide from 1990 to 2020: an analysis of data from the WHO mortality database

Background

Suicide is a serious but preventable public health concern at the global level, showing relevant geographical differences. This study aims to monitor global temporal and geographical patterns in suicide mortality in pre-adolescents, adolescents, and young adults (i.e., aged 10-24 years), from 1990 to 2020 or the most recent available year.

Methods

Using the World Health Organisation mortality database, we conducted an analysis on a subset of 52 countries with valid and high-quality data. We computed age-standardised suicide rates (ASR) by sex, country, and calendar year, and performed a joinpoint regression analysis to identify significant changes in the temporal suicide trends over the studied period.

Findings

High variability in suicide rates and trends was observed, with a male-to-female ratio of two to five. Between 1990 and 2020, most European countries reported declining suicide trends, with some exceptions. In particular, alarming trends emerged in the United Kingdom, with annual rises of 2.5% (95% CI: 1.6-3.5) since 2005 among males and 8.5% (95% CI: 4.7-12.6) since 2012 among females. The most favorable trends and lowest suicide rates were in Southern Europe, with 3.1/100,000 persons in Italy (2020) and 3.5/100,000 persons in Spain (2021) among males, and 0.9/100,000 persons in Italy (2020) and 1.1/100,000 persons in Romania (2019) among females. Conversely, the highest rates were in Central-Eastern Europe, with 10.2/100,000 males in the Russian Federation (2019) and 10.0/100,000 males in Poland (2002). Higher suicide rates and significant increases were reported in not European areas. The highest ASR was 15.5/100,000 males in the United States of America, with an annual increase of 3.8% (95% CI: 3.1-4.5) among males in 2009-2020 and 6.7% (95% CI: 5.6-7.8) among females in 2007-2017, followed by a levelling off.

Interpretation

Temporal and geographical comparisons of suicide mortality should be interpreted with caution due to potential misclassification or under-reporting of suicide deaths in some countries.

Funding

None.

Trends in Adolescent Suicide by Method in the US, 1999-2020

Importance

Adolescent suicide in the US is a major public health problem, yet temporal trends in suicide methods by demographics are understudied.

Objective

To examine national trends in suicide mortality by method (firearm, poisoning, hanging and asphyxiation, and all other means) from 1999 to 2020 by demographic characteristics.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This serial cross-sectional study used national death certificate data of adolescent (aged 10-19 years) suicide decedents compiled by the National Center for Health Statistics from January 1, 1999, to December 31, 2020. Data analysis was performed from April 1, 2023, to July 9, 2023.

Exposures

Age, sex, and race and ethnicity.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Trends in age-standardized mortality rates and average annual percent change (AAPC) in rates were estimated by age, sex, and race and ethnicity for each suicide method.

Results

This study assessed data from 47 217 adolescent suicide decedents. From 1999 to 2020, suicide by firearm (AAPC, 1.0; 95% CI, 0.1-1.9), poisoning (AAPC, 2.7; 95% CI, 1.0-4.4), hanging and asphyxiation (AAPC, 2.4; 95% CI, 0.2-4.6), and other means (AAPC, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.2-4.6) increased. Rapidly increasing rates were observed among female adolescents for poisoning (AAPC, 4.5; 95% CI, 2.3-6.7) and hanging and asphyxiation (AAPC, 5.9; 95% CI, 5.0-6.8) suicides. From 2007 to 2020, firearm suicides sharply increased among female (annual percent change [APC], 7.8; 95% CI, 6.0-9.5) and male (APC, 5.3; 95% CI, 4.3-6.3) adolescents. Firearm suicide rates increased among Black adolescents from 2012 to 2020 (APC, 14.5; 95% CI, 9.7-19.5), Asian and Pacific Islander adolescents from 2008 to 2020 (APC, 12.0; 95% CI, 9.7-14.5), American Indian and Alaska Native adolescents from 2014 to 2020 (APC, 10.6; 95% CI, 2.6-19.3), and Hispanic or Latino adolescents from 2011 to 2020 (APC, 10.2; 95% CI, 6.3-13.8). During the study period, Black adolescents had the highest average increase in hanging and asphyxiation suicides (AAPC, 4.2; 95% CI, 3.2-5.2). From 2011 to 2020, poisoning suicide deaths increased (APC, 12.6; 95% CI, 8.5-16.7) among female adolescents.

Conclusions and Relevance

Suicide rates increased across all methods from 1999 to 2020. Differences were noted by sex, age, and race and ethnicity. Increasing suicide rates among racial and ethnic minoritized youth are especially concerning, and effective prevention strategies are urgently needed.

Racial and ethnic differences in the effects of state firearm laws: a systematic review subgroup analysis

BACKGROUND

Despite growing evidence about how state-level firearm regulations affect overall rates of injury and death, little is known about whether potential harms or benefits of firearm laws are evenly distributed across demographic subgroups. In this systematic review, we synthesized available evidence on the extent to which firearm policies produce differential effects by race and ethnicity on injury, recreational or defensive gun use, and gun ownership or purchasing behaviors.

MAIN BODY

We searched 13 databases for English-language studies published between 1995 and February 28, 2023 that estimated a relationship between firearm policy in the USA and one of eight outcomes, included a comparison group, evaluated time series data, and provided estimated policy effects differentiated by race or ethnicity. We used pre-specified criteria to evaluate the quality of inference and causal effect identification. By policy and outcome, we compared policy effects across studies and across racial/ethnic groups using two different ways to express effect sizes: incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and rate differences. Of 182 studies that used quasi-experimental methods to evaluate firearm policy effects, only 15 estimated policy effects differentiated by race or ethnicity. These 15 eligible studies provided 57 separate policy effect comparisons across race/ethnicity, 51 of which evaluated interpersonal violence. In IRR terms, there was little consistent evidence that policies produced significantly different effects for different racial/ethnic groups. However, because of different baseline homicide rates, similar relative effects for some policies (e.g., universal background checks) translated into significantly greater absolute differences in homicide rates among Black compared to white victims.

CONCLUSIONS

The current literature does not support strong conclusions about whether state firearm policies differentially benefit or harm particular racial/ethnic groups. This largely reflects limited attention to these questions in the literature and challenges with detecting such effects given existing data availability and statistical power. Findings also emphasize the need for additional rigorous research that adopts a more explicit focus on testing for racial differences in firearm policy effects and that assesses the quality of race/ethnicity information in firearm injury and crime datasets.