Comparison of Postmarketing Findings vs the Initial Clinical Validation Findings of a Thyroid Nodule Gene Expression Classifier: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Diagnostic accuracy of Afirma gene expression classifier, Afirma gene sequencing classifier, ThyroSeq v2 and ThyroSeq v3 for indeterminate (Bethesda III and IV) thyroid nodules: a meta-analysis

Objective

The management of thyroid nodules with indeterminate cytology (ITN) is still a challenge. To evaluate the performance of commercial molecular tests for ITN, we performed this comprehensive meta-analysis.

Methods

We performed an electronic search using PubMed/Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Library. Studies assessing the diagnostic accuracy of Afirma gene expression classifier (GEC), Afirma gene sequencing classifier (GSC), ThyroSeq v2 (TSv2), or ThyroSeq v3 (TSv3) in patients with ITN (only Bethesda category III or IV) were selected; Statistical analyses were performed by using Stata.

Results

Seventy-one samples (GEC, n = 38; GSC, n = 16; TSv2, n = 9; TSv3, n = 8) in 53 studies, involving 6490 fine needle aspirations (FNAs) with ITN cytology with molecular diagnostics (GEC, GSC, TSv2, or TSv3), were included in the study. The meta-analysis showed the following pooled estimates: sensitivity 0.95 (95% CI: 0.94-0.97), specificity 0.35 (0.28-0.43), positive likelihood ratio (LR+) 1.5 (1.3-1.6), and negative likelihood ratio (LR-) 0.13 (0.09-0.19), with the best performance for TSv3 (area under the ROC curve 0.95 (0.93-0.96), followed by TSv2 (0.90 (0.87-0.92)), GSC (0.86 (0.82-0.88)), and GEC (0.82 (0.78-0.85)); the best rule-out property was observed for GSC (LR-, 0.07 (0.02-0.19)), followed by TSv3 (0.11 (0.05-0.24)) and GEC (0.16 (0.10-0.28), and the best rule-in was observed for TSv2 (LR+, 2,9 (1.4-4.6)), followed by GSC (1.9 (1.6-2.4)). A meta-regression analysis revealed that study design, Bethesda category, and type of molecular test were independent factors.

Conclusion

We showed that in patients with ITN, TSv3 has the best molecular diagnostic performance, followed by TSv2, GSC, and GEC. As regards rule-out malignancy, GSC, and rule-in, TSV2 is superior to other tests.

Molecular testing for thyroid nodules: Where are we now?

Approximately 25% of the fine needle aspiration samples (FNAB) of thyroid nodules are classified as "indeterminate samples", that means, Bethesda III and IV categories. Until the last decade, most of these cases underwent diagnostic surgery, although only a minority (13-34%) confirmed malignancy postoperatively. In view of this, with the objective of improving the preoperative diagnosis in these cases, the molecular tests emerged, which are validated from the diagnostic point of view, presenting good performance, with good diagnostic accuracy, being able to avoid diagnostic surgeries. With the advancement of knowledge of the role of each of the mutations and gene rearrangements in thyroid oncogenesis, molecular markers have left to play only a diagnostic role and have been gaining more and more space both in defining the prognostic role of the tumor, as well as in the indication of target therapy. Thus, the objective of this review is to show how to use the tool of molecular tests, now commercially available in the world, in the management of indeterminate cytological nodules, assessing the pre-test malignancy risk of the nodule, through clinical, ultrasonographic and cytological characteristics, and decide on the benefit of molecular testing for each patient. In addition, to discuss its new and promising prognostic and therapeutic role in thyroid cancer.

Role of Genetic Testing in the Management of Indeterminate Thyroid Nodules in the Indian Setting

The increased detection of thyroid nodules in the human population has led to an increase in the number of thyroid surgeries without an improvement in survival outcomes. Though the choice for surgery is straightforward in malignant thyroid nodules, the decision is far more complex in those nodules that get categorized into indeterminate thyroid nodules (ITN) by fine needle aspiration. Therefore, there is a pressing need to develop a tool that will aid in decision-making among the ITN. In this context, the development of various molecular testing (MT) panels has helped to confirm or rule out malignancy, reducing unnecessary surgeries and potentially guiding the extent of surgery as well. Currently, such tests are widely used among the Western population but these MT panels are not used by the South Asian population because of non-availability of validated panels and the high cost involved. There is a need to develop a suitable panel which is population-specific and validate the same. In this review, we would focus on current trends in the management of ITN among the South Asian population and how to develop a novel MT panel which is cost-effective, with high diagnostic accuracy obviating the need for expensive panels that already exist.

An eXplainable Artificial Intelligence analysis of Raman spectra for thyroid cancer diagnosis

Raman spectroscopy shows great potential as a diagnostic tool for thyroid cancer due to its ability to detect biochemical changes during cancer development. This technique is particularly valuable because it is non-invasive and label/dye-free. Compared to molecular tests, Raman spectroscopy analyses can more effectively discriminate malignant features, thus reducing unnecessary surgeries. However, one major hurdle to using Raman spectroscopy as a diagnostic tool is the identification of significant patterns and peaks. In this study, we propose a Machine Learning procedure to discriminate healthy/benign versus malignant nodules that produces interpretable results. We collect Raman spectra obtained from histological samples, select a set of peaks with a data-driven and label independent approach and train the algorithms with the relative prominence of the peaks in the selected set. The performance of the considered models, quantified by area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve, exceeds 0.9. To enhance the interpretability of the results, we employ eXplainable Artificial Intelligence and compute the contribution of each feature to the prediction of each sample.

2023 European Thyroid Association Clinical Practice Guidelines for thyroid nodule management

With the widespread use of sensitive imaging techniques, which include neck visualization, a conspicuous number of thyroid nodules emerge and demand attention. Most lesions are benign, asymptomatic, and do not warrant treatment. In the case of cancer diagnosis, most are small, intrathyroidal and indolent neoplasms that can safely be managed conservatively. There is a pronounced need for more cost-effective, risk-adapted approaches to the management of this highly prevalent condition, taking the wishes of the patient into consideration. Thus, the present guidelines aim at providing a clinical practice guide for the initial workup and the subsequent management of adult individuals harboring thyroid nodules. Importantly, these guidelines are not intended to cover the management of thyroid malignancy. The manuscript and the specific recommendations were developed by reconciling the best available research evidence with the knowledge and clinical experience of the panelists and updating aspects of a number of previous European Thyroid Association guidelines.

European experience with the Afirma Gene Expression Classifier for indeterminate thyroid nodules: A clinical utility study in the Netherlands

BACKGROUND

The Gene Expression Classifier (GEC) and Genomic Sequencing Classifier (GSC) were developed to improve risk stratification of indeterminate nodules. Our aim was to assess the clinical utility in a European population with restrictive diagnostic workup.

METHODS

Clinical utility of the GEC was assessed in a prospective multicenter cohort of 68 indeterminate nodules. Diagnostic surgical rates for Bethesda III and IV nodules were compared to a historical cohort of 171 indeterminate nodules. Samples were post hoc tested with the GSC.

RESULTS

The GEC classified 26% as benign. Surgical rates between the prospective and historical cohort did not differ (72.1% vs. 76.6%). The GSC classified 59% as benign, but misclassified six malignant lesions as benign.

CONCLUSION

Implementation of GEC in management of indeterminate nodules in a European country with restrictive diagnostic workup is currently not supported, especially in oncocytic nodules. Prospective studies with the GSC in European countries are needed to determine the clinical utility.

Application of machine learning methods to guide patient management by predicting the risk of malignancy of Bethesda III-V thyroid nodules

OBJECTIVE

Indeterminate thyroid nodules (ITN) are common and often lead to (sometimes unnecessary) diagnostic surgery. We aimed to evaluate the performance of two machine learning methods (ML), based on routinely available features to predict the risk of malignancy (RM) of ITN.

DESIGN

Multi-centric diagnostic retrospective cohort study conducted between 2010 and 2020.

METHODS

Adult patients who underwent surgery for at least one Bethesda III-V thyroid nodule (TN) with fully available medical records were included. Of the 7917 records reviewed, eligibility criteria were met in 1288 patients with 1335 TN. Patients were divided into training (940 TN) and validation cohort (395 TN). The diagnostic performance of a multivariate logistic regression model (LR) and its nomogram, and a random forest model (RF) in predicting the nature and RM of a TN were evaluated. All available clinical, biological, ultrasound, and cytological data of the patients were collected and used to construct the two algorithms.

RESULTS

There were 253 (19%), 693 (52%), and 389 (29%) TN classified as Bethesda III, IV, and V, respectively, with an overall RM of 35%. Both cohorts were well-balanced for baseline characteristics. Both models were validated on the validation cohort, with performances in terms of specificity, sensitivity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 90%, 57.3%, 73.4%, 81.4%, 84% (CI95%: 78.5%-89.5%) for the LR model, and 87.6%, 54.7%, 68.1%, 80%, 82.6% (CI95%: 77.4%-87.9%) for the RF model, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our ML models performed well in predicting the nature of Bethesda III-V TN. In addition, our freely available online nomogram helped to refine the RM, identifying low-risk TN that may benefit from surveillance in up to a third of ITN, and thus may reduce the number of unnecessary surgeries.

Clinical value of molecular markers as diagnostic and prognostic tools to guide treatment of thyroid cancer

OBJECTIVE

Advances in our understanding of the molecular biology of thyroid tumours is being rapidly translated into their clinical management. This review summarizes the current use of molecular testing in thyroid tumours, focusing on their usefulness as diagnostic and prognostic tools to guide treatment with consideration of present limitations.

DESIGN

Considerations about molecular testing applications for the diagnosis and treatment of thyroid tumours are divided into four sections/roles: (1) evaluating cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules; (2) guiding extent of surgery in indeterminate thyroid nodules; (3) completing histological characterization of thyroid tumours and (4) identifying actionable mutations in advanced progressive thyroid cancers.

RESULTS

Genomic testing can improve the presurgical malignancy risk assessment in indeterminate thyroid nodules. However, a prior in-depth analysis of institutional quality and outcomes of sonographical, cytological and histological characterization of thyroid tumours is necessary. Presently, it remains uncertain whether knowing the molecular profile of a cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodule might be advantageous to modify the extent of initial surgery. Molecular characterization of thyroid tumours can be a valuable adjunct to morphological diagnosis in some challenging cases, such as in low-risk follicular cell-derived neoplasms, or rare tumours. Finally, as selective kinase inhibitors are available, molecular testing in locally advanced/metastatic progressive thyroid cancers should also be integrated into the institutional clinical management pathway to improve outcomes and limit toxicity.

CONCLUSIONS

Molecular testing needs to be implemented into the local evidence-based clinical management thyroid nodule/cancer pathways to improve its diagnostic and prognostic value and to optimize cost-effectiveness.

Assessing Bias and Limitations of Clinical Validation Studies of Molecular Diagnostic Tests for Indeterminate Thyroid Nodules: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: Molecular tests for thyroid nodules with indeterminate fine needle aspiration results are increasingly used in clinical practice; however, true diagnostic summaries of these tests are unknown. A systematic review and meta-analysis were completed to (1) evaluate the accuracy of commercially available molecular tests for malignancy in indeterminate thyroid nodules and (2) quantify biases and limitations in studies that validate those tests. Summary: PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science were systematically searched through July 2021. English language articles that reported original clinical validation attempts of molecular tests for indeterminate thyroid nodules were included if they reported counts of true-negative, true-positive, false-negative, and false-positive results. We performed screening and full-text review, followed by assessment of eight common biases and limitations, extraction of diagnostic and histopathological information, and meta-analysis of clinical validity using a bivariate linear mixed-effects model. Forty-nine studies were included. Meta-analysis of Afirma Gene expression classifiers (GEC; n = 38 studies) revealed a sensitivity of 0.92 (confidence interval: 0.90-0.94), specificity of 0.26 (0.20-0.32), negative likelihood ratio (LR-) of 0.32 (0.23-0.44), positive LR+ of 1.24 (1.15-1.35), and area under the curve (AUC) of 0.83 (0.74-0.89). Afirma Genomic Sequencing Classifier (GSC; n = 10) had a sensitivity of 0.94 (0.89-0.96), specificity of 0.38 (0.27-0.50), LR- of 0.18 (0.10-0.30), LR+ of 1.52 (1.28-1.87), and AUC of 0.91 (0.62-0.92). ThyroSeq v1 and v2 (n = 10) had a sensitivity of 0.86 (0.82-0.90), specificity of 0.74 (0.59-0.85), LR- of 0.19 (0.13-0.26), LR+ of 3.52 (2.08-5.92), and AUC of 0.86 (0.81-0.90). ThyroSeq v3 (n = 6) had a sensitivity of 0.92 (0.86-0.95), specificity of 0.41 (0.18-0.69), LR- of 0.24 (0.09-0.62), LR+ of 1.67 (1.09-2.98), and AUC of 0.90 (0.63-0.92). Fourteen percent of studies conducted a blinded histopathologic review of excised thyroid nodules, and 8% made the decision to go to surgery blind to molecular test results. Conclusions: Meta-analyses reveal a high diagnostic accuracy of molecular tests for thyroid nodule assessment of malignancy risk; however, these studies are subject to several limitations. Limitations and their potential clinical impacts must be addressed and, when feasible, adjusted for using valid statistical methodologies.

Diagnostic performance of the second-generation molecular tests in the assessment of indeterminate thyroid nodules: A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to evaluate the diagnostic performance of the second-generation molecular tests in the diagnosis of thyroid nodules with indeterminate fine-needle aspiration biopsy results.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Google Scholar, Scopus, and Cochrane Library for studies published between January 2017 and March 2021. Inclusion criteria were indeterminate thyroid results from fine-needle aspiration (FNA) that included Bethesda categories III and IV, use of Afirma GSC, Thyroseq v3, and ThyGeNext as an index test, and conclusive histopathological results. Studies with no post-surgical diagnoses were excluded. For each included study, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were obtained. Sensitivity and specificity were pooled jointly using a bivariate binomial random-effects model. Statistical significance was indicated at p-value less than 0.05.

RESULTS

Our search yielded 431 non-duplicate articles, of which 15 were included in the study (7 GSC, 6 Thyroseq v3, and 2 ThyGeNext). ThyGeNext studies were excluded from the meta-analysis due to the small sample size. Pooled data for GSC studies on 472 thyroid nodules showed a sensitivity of 96.6 (95% confidence interval: 89.7-98.9%), specificity of 52.9% (23.4-80.5%), PPV of 63% (51-74%), and NPV of 96% (94-98%). Pooled data for ThyroSeq studies on 530 thyroid nodules showed a sensitivity of 95.1% (91.1-97.4%), specificity of 49.6% (29.3-70.1%), PPV of 70% (55-83%), and NPV of 92% (86-97%). There was no statistically significant difference in diagnostic performances of the two tests (p-values for sensitivity = 0.89, specificity = 0.82, PPV = 0.43, NPV = 0.17).

CONCLUSION

High sensitivity and high NPV in GSC and Thyroseq v3 have potential to help rule out malignancy among thyroid nodules with indeterminate cytology results. There was no difference in diagnostic performances between the two molecular tests indicating that either test is appropriate to determine the malignancy of thyroid nodules. Further long-term outcome data are warranted to make a clear recommendation.

Long-term Follow-up of Cytologically Indeterminate Thyroid Nodules Found Benign on Molecular Testing: A Validation Study

Objective

Molecular testing has revolutionized management of indeterminate thyroid nodules (Bethesda categories III and IV). Few studies have attempted to validate the negative predictive value of molecular tests. Using long-term observation as a surrogate for surgical resection, we sought to examine the false-negative rate of “benign” indeterminate thyroid nodules on molecular testing.

Study Design

Case series with retrospective data collection and chart review.

Setting

Large community-based practice with multiple satellite offices.

Methods

All patients with thyroid nodules that underwent ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration biopsy between 2013 and 2019 were evaluated through retrospective analysis. Cytologically indeterminate nodules reflexively underwent molecular testing to guide clinical management. Observation was recommended for lesions with benign molecular testing, and these nodules were followed clinically and by ultrasound.

Results

A total of 2011 nodules underwent fine-needle aspiration, of which 280 (14%) were indeterminate thyroid nodules. Of those 280 nodules, 100 (36%) were benign on molecular testing. Three samples were excluded from analysis due to patient deaths from unrelated causes. Surgical resection was recommended in 16 of the 97 nodules (17%), with the majority due to size and compressive symptoms. Histopathology was available in 14 nodules that underwent surgery, with 1 demonstrating minimally invasive follicular carcinoma.

Conclusion

While molecular testing is safe to use in guiding management of indeterminate thyroid nodules, consideration of individualized clinical factors and close long-term follow-up remains paramount.

Fluorescence Polarization Imaging of Methylene Blue Facilitates Quantitative Detection of Thyroid Cancer in Single Cells

Simple Summary

Accurate diagnosis of thyroid fine-needle aspiration cytology is a significant clinical challenge. A method to detect thyroid cancer at the cellular level would be invaluable to reduce diagnostic uncertainty and improve clinical decision making. We studied the ability of confocal fluorescence polarization imaging of an exogenous fluorophore, methylene blue, to provide quantitative discrimination of cancerous cells in human samples. Our results indicate that fluorescence polarization imaging provides a reliable biomarker of thyroid cancer and holds the potential to shift the paradigm of cellular level cancer diagnosis from subjective visual assessment to objective measurement.

Abstract

Background: Diagnostic accuracy of the standard of care fine-needle aspiration cytology (FNAC) remains a significant problem in thyroid oncology. Therefore, a robust and accurate method for reducing uncertainty of cytopathological evaluation would be invaluable. Methods: In this double-blind study, we employed fluorescence emission and quantitative fluorescence polarization (Fpol) confocal imaging for sorting thyroid cells into benign/malignant categories. Samples were collected from malignant tumors, benign nodules, and normal thyroid epithelial tissues. Results: A total of 32 samples, including 12 from cytologically indeterminate categories, were stained using aqueous methylene blue (MB) solution, imaged, and analyzed. Fluorescence emission images yielded diagnostically relevant information on cytomorphology. Significantly higher MB Fpol was measured in thyroid cancer as compared to benign and normal cells. The results obtained from 12 indeterminate samples revealed that MB Fpol accurately differentiated benign and malignant thyroid nodules. Conclusions: The developed imaging approach holds the potential to provide an accurate and objective biomarker for thyroid cancer, improve diagnostic accuracy of cytopathology, and decrease the number of lobectomy and near-total thyroidectomy procedures.

Molecular Testing for Thyroid Nodules of Indeterminate Cytology: A Health Technology Assessment

Background

The thyroid is a gland in the lower neck that is responsible for secreting hormones related to growth and metabolism. A cancer growth in the thyroid can spread to other parts of the body, but most thyroid nodules (growths) are benign, and some types of thyroid cancer are nonaggressive and can be managed with active surveillance only. We conducted a health technology assessment of molecular testing in people with thyroid nodules of indeterminate cytology, which included an evaluation of diagnostic accuracy, clinical utility, cost-effectiveness, the budget impact of publicly funding molecular testing, and patient preferences and values.

Methods

We performed a systematic literature search of the clinical evidence. We assessed the risk of bias of each included study using the Risk of Bias Among Systematic Review (ROBIS) tool for systematic reviews, the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2 (QUADAS-2) assessment for primary studies that evaluated diagnostic accuracy, and the Risk of Bias tool for Non-randomized Studies (RoBANS) for primary studies that evaluated clinical utility. We evaluated the quality of the body of evidence according to the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) Working Group criteria. We performed a systematic economic literature review and conducted cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analyses with a 5-year time horizon from the Ontario Ministry of Health perspective. We also analyzed the budget impact of publicly funding molecular testing in people with thyroid nodules of indeterminate cytology in Ontario. To contextualize the potential value of molecular testing in people with thyroid nodules of indeterminate cytology, we spoke to people with thyroid nodules.

Results

In the clinical evidence review, we included one systematic review, which contained eight relevant primary studies. Using molecular testing to support the rule-out of cancer in thyroid nodules of indeterminate significance may reduce the number of unnecessary surgeries. For diagnostic accuracy, molecular testing for a diagnosis of malignancy in a nodule of indeterminate significance had a sensitivity of 91% to 94% and a specificity of 68% to 82% (GRADE: Low). As well, lower rates of surgical resections were reported in nodules of indeterminate cytology (GRADE: Very Low). Compared to diagnostic lobectomy, we found that molecular testing would increase the probability of predicting a correct diagnosis, reduce the probability of unnecessary surgery, and lead to a slight improvement in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), but it would increase costs. The resulting incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $220,572 to $298,653 per QALY gained. At the commonly used willingness-to-pay values of $50,000 and $100,000 per QALY gained, molecular testing was unlikely to be cost-effective (probability of molecular testing being cost-effective was less than 50%). Publicly funding molecular testing in Ontario over the next 5 years would lead to an additional cost of $6.24 million. People with thyroid nodules of indeterminate cytology reported on the benefits and drawbacks of molecular testing, as well as barriers to accessing and choosing to undergo molecular testing.

Conclusions

For thyroid nodules of indeterminate cytology, molecular testing may have diagnostic accuracy as a rule-out test, and it may result in fewer nodule resections than usual care (no molecular testing). For people with thyroid nodules of indeterminate cytology, molecular testing at the current list price is unlikely to be cost-effective compared to diagnostic lobectomy. Publicly funding molecular testing in Ontario would cost about $6.24 million over the next 5 years. People with thyroid nodules of indeterminate cytology valued the information that could be provided by molecular testing, but they expressed concern about the time required to obtain results, especially if the findings were not conclusive or useful for treatment decision-making.

Repeat Fine Needle Aspiration Cytology Refines the Selection of Thyroid Nodules for Afirma Gene Expression Classifier Testing

Background: Molecular testing (MT) refines risk stratification for thyroid nodules that are indeterminate for cancer by fine needle aspiration (FNA) cytology. Criteria for selecting nodules for MT vary and remain largely untested, raising questions about the best strategy for maximizing the usefulness of MT while minimizing the harms of overtesting. We used a unique data set to examine the effects of repeat FNA cytology-based criteria for MT on management decisions and nodule outcomes. Methods: This was a study of adults (age 25-90 years; 281 women and 72 men) with cytologically indeterminate (Bethesda III/IV) thyroid nodules who underwent repeat FNA biopsy and Afirma Gene Expression Classifier (GEC) testing (N = 363 nodules from 353 patients) between June 2013 and October 2017 at a single institution, with follow-up data collected until December 2019. Subgroup analysis was performed based on classification of repeat FNA cytology. Outcomes of GEC testing, clinical/sonographic surveillance of unresected nodules, and histopathologic diagnoses of thyroidectomies were compared between three testing approaches: (i) Reflex (MT sent on the basis of the initial Bethesda III/IV FNA), (ii) SemiRestrictive (MT sent if repeat FNA is Bethesda I-IV), and (iii) Restrictive (MT sent only if repeat FNA is Bethesda III/IV) testing approaches. Results: Restricting MT to nodules that remain Bethesda III/IV on repeat FNA would have missed 4 low-risk cancers and 3 noninvasive follicular thyroid neoplasms with papillary-like nuclear features (NIFTP) (collectively 2% of the test population) but would have avoided diagnostic surgery for 42 benign nodules (12% of the test population). The Restrictive testing strategy was more specific (delta 0.126 confidence interval [CI 0.093 to 0.159] and 0.129 [CI 0.097 to 0.161], respectively) but less sensitive (delta -0.339 [CI -0.424 to -0.253] and -0.340 [CI -0.425 to -0.255], respectively) than the Reflex and SemiRestrictive approaches for detecting NIFTP or cancer. Conclusions: Repeat FNA cytology can guide the selection of cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules that warrant MT. The Restrictive model of performing Afirma GEC only on nodules with two separate biopsies showing Bethesda III/IV cytology would reduce the rate of diagnostic surgery for histologically benign nodules while missing only rare low-risk tumors. Given the low but nontrivial risks of thyroidectomy, the higher specificity of the Restrictive testing approach disproportionately outweighs the potential harms.

Impact of Molecular Testing on the Management of Indeterminate Thyroid Nodules Among Western and Asian Countries: a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Molecular testing has a potential to improve the management of patients with indeterminate thyroid nodules considered for surgery. This study examined the influence of molecular tests on the treatment of indeterminate nodules, particularly the differences between Western and Asian countries. Electronic databases including PubMed and Web of Science were searched for relevant articles from 2010 to March 2019. We computed meta-analysis of proportion and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) utilizing the random-effect model. We used independent samples t test to compare the resection rate (RR), rate of malignancy (ROM), rate of preoperative molecular testing (RMT), and rate of positive test (RP) between subgroups. We included a total of 34 studies with 7976 indeterminate nodules. The multigene panel testing methods were exclusively used in the USA. Compared with the non-molecular era, molecular testing was associated with a significantly increased ROM (47.9% versus 32.1%; p = 0.001). The ROM of indeterminate nodules in Asian institutes was significantly higher than that in Western countries (75.3% versus 36.6%; p < 0.001, respectively). Institutes employing single-gene tests achieved a higher ROM (59.8% versus 37.9%; p = 0.013). Molecular testing is a promising method to tailor the clinical management for indeterminate thyroid FNA. Certain differences in routine thyroid cytopathology practice among the West and the East are still present. The combination of molecular testing and active surveillance enhances the accuracy of case selection for surgery in Asian countries.

Molecular Profiling of Thyroid Nodules-Are These Findings Meaningful, or Merely Measurable?: A Review

Importance

Advances in genomic technologies have facilitated the development of sophisticated molecular diagnostic tests for thyroid nodules, in the hopes of better risk stratifying nodules with indeterminate cytopathologic diagnosis. It is unclear whether the widespread, or reflexive, use of these tests will improve outcomes for patients with thyroid nodules.

Observations

Thyroid nodules are a common and essentially normal finding. Even cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules have a very low probability (approximately 1%) of representing clinically aggressive cancers and an even lower probability (approximately 0.1%) of representing lethal cancers. Therefore, most indeterminate thyroid nodules are low risk. Even if some will eventually require surgery, many can initially be kept under surveillance rather than requiring immediate surgery. Clinical and radiographic features can be helpful in risk stratifying these nodules. Molecular assays are marketed as tools to improve risk stratification for cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules. However, the performance of these tests varies markedly across different practice settings, and the predictive value of these tests in real world practice may be lower than the numbers provided on laboratory reports. It is unclear whether these assays improve patient outcomes, such as survival or quality of life, or substantially reduce the number of thyroid surgeries performed.

Conclusions and Relevance

Because of variable performance, unclear benefit to patients, and questionable cost-effectiveness, clinical practice guidelines in the US and Europe currently do not recommend the universal, reflexive use of molecular assays for cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules. These tests might offer value when used in selected scenarios, although this is not well understood. Future research should address whether the routine use of these molecular diagnostic tests leads to superior patient survival or quality-of-life outcomes compared with management based on clinical and radiographic criteria.

Thyroid Nodule Evaluation and Management in Older Adults: A Review of Practical Considerations for Clinical Endocrinologists

OBJECTIVE

Contextualizing the evaluation of older adults with thyroid nodules is necessary to fully understand which management strategy is the most appropriate. Our goal was to summarize available clinical evidence to provide guidance in the care of older adults with thyroid nodules and highlight special considerations for thyroid nodule evaluation and management in this population.

METHODS

We conducted a literature search of PubMed and Ovid MEDLINE from January 2000 to November 2020 to identify relevant peer-reviewed articles published in English. References from the included articles as well as articles identified by the authors were also reviewed.

RESULTS

The prevalence of thyroid nodules increases with age. Although thyroid nodules in older adults have a lower risk of malignancy, identified cancers are more likely to be of high-risk histology. The goals of thyroid nodule evaluation and the tools used for diagnosis are similar for older and younger patients with thyroid nodules. However, limited evidence exists regarding thyroid nodule evaluation and management to guide personalized decision making in the geriatric population.

CONCLUSION

Considering patient context is significant in the diagnosis and management of thyroid nodules in older adults. When making management decisions in this population, it is essential to carefully weigh the risks and benefits of thyroid nodule diagnosis and treatment, in view of older adults' higher prevalence of high-risk thyroid cancer as well as increased risk for multimorbidity, functional and cognitive decline, and treatment complications.

Thyroseq v3, Afirma GSC, and microRNA Panels Versus Previous Molecular Tests in the Preoperative Diagnosis of Indeterminate Thyroid Nodules: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Molecular tests are being used increasingly as an auxiliary diagnostic tool so as to avoid a diagnostic surgery approach for cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules (ITNs). Previous test versions, Thyroseq v2 and Afirma Gene Expression Classifier (GEC), have proven shortcomings in malignancy detection performance.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate the diagnostic performance of the established Thyroseq v3, Afirma Gene Sequencing Classifier (GSC), and microRNA-based assays versus prior iterations in ITNs, in light of "rule-in" and "rule-out" concepts. It further analyzed the impact of noninvasive follicular thyroid neoplasm with papillary-like nuclear features (NIFTP) reclassification and Bethesda cytological subtypes on the performance of molecular tests.

METHODS

Pubmed, Scopus, and Web of Science were the databases used for the present research, a process that lasted until September 2020. A random-effects bivariate model was used to estimate the summary sensitivity, specificity, positive (PLR) and negative likelihood ratios (NLR), and area under the curve (AUC) for each panel. The conducted sensitivity analyses addressed different Bethesda categories and NIFTP thresholds.

RESULTS

A total of 40 eligible studies were included with 7,831 ITNs from 7,565 patients. Thyroseq v3 showed the best overall performance (AUC 0.95; 95% confidence interval: 0.93-0.97), followed by Afirma GSC (AUC 0.90; 0.87-0.92) and Thyroseq v2 (AUC 0.88; 0.85-0.90). In terms of "rule-out" abilities Thyroseq v3 (NLR 0.02; 95%CI: 0.0-2.69) surpassed Afirma GEC (NLR 0.18; 95%CI: 0.10-0.33). Thyroseq v2 (PLR 3.5; 95%CI: 2.2-5.5) and Thyroseq v3 (PLR 2.8; 95%CI: 1.2-6.3) achieved superior "rule-in" properties compared to Afirma GSC (PLR 1.9; 95%CI: 1.3-2.8). Evidence for Thyroseq v3 seems to have higher quality, notwithstanding the paucity of studies. Both Afirma GEC and Thyroseq v2 performance have been affected by NIFTP reclassification. ThyGenNEXT/ThyraMIR and RosettaGX show prominent preliminary results.

CONCLUSION

The newly emerged tests, Thyroseq v3 and Afirma GSC, designed for a "rule-in" purpose, have been proved to outperform in abilities to rule out malignancy, thus surpassing previous tests no longer available, Thyroseq 2 and Afirma GEC. However, Thyroseq v2 still ranks as the best rule-in molecular test.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

http://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO, identifier CRD42020212531.

American Thyroid Association Sonographic Risk and Afirma Gene Expression Classifier Alone and in Combination for the Diagnosis of Thyroid Nodules with Bethesda Category III Cytology

Background: The Afirma gene expression classifier (GEC) has been used to aid in the diagnosis and management of thyroid nodules having Bethesda category III fine-needle aspiration cytologic diagnosis (B3 nodules). The American Thyroid Association sonographic risk stratification system for thyroid nodules (ATA-US) may stratify B3 nodules and aid in the decision to order a molecular test. The aim of this study was to assess the association between ATA-US and GEC as well as to determine their individual and combined diagnostic performances when applied to B3 nodules. Methods: A retrospective single-center study included B3 nodules that had undergone evaluation by GEC. Each ultrasound was reviewed by three radiologists, and nodules were classified using the 2015 ATA sonographic risk categories. Nodules were determined to be benign or malignant based on surgical pathology or minimum 11 months of follow-up. Positive predictive values (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) were calculated for GEC, ATA-US, and GEC across all ATA-US categories. Results: One hundred twenty-six B3 nodules with GEC results were included and deemed benign or malignant based on final pathology or follow-up. Prevalence of malignancy was 32%. The rate of malignancy was similar in the ATA-US high suspicion (HS) and intermediate suspicion (IS) categories at 42% and 38%, respectively; and lower in nodules with low suspicion sonography (LS) and very low suspicion sonography (VLS) at 23% and 11%, respectively. The PPV and NPV of ATA-US was calculated by designating HS or IS sonography as a "positive" test and the lower risk categories as "negative." ATA-US had a PPV of 40% and NPV of 79%. The GEC PPV was 40% and NPV was 83%. The PPV of GEC was 50% in nodules with HS or IS ATA-US and lower at 28% and 20%, respectively, in LS and VLS nodules. The NPV of GEC was 80% in HS, 77% in IS, 84% in LS, and 100% in VLS sonography categories. Conclusions: In B3 nodules, ATA-US and GEC have similar diagnostic performance. The PPV of GEC varies across ATA-US categories, while the NPV remains similar. These data support the need for future prospective studies.

Features of Cytologically Indeterminate Molecularly Benign Nodules Treated With Surgery

BACKGROUND

Most cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules (ITNs) with benign molecular testing are not surgically removed. The data on clinical outcomes of these nodules are limited.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed all ITNs where molecular testing was performed either with the Afirma gene expression classifier or Afirma gene sequencing classifier between 2011 and 2018 at a single institution.

RESULTS

Thirty-eight out of 289 molecularly benign ITNs were ultimately resected. The most common reason for surgery was compressive symptoms (39%). In multivariable modeling, patients aged <40 years, nodules ≥3 cm, presence of an Afirma suspicious nodule other than the index nodule, and compressive symptoms were associated with higher surgery rates with hazard ratios for surgery of 3.5 (P < 0.001), 3.2 (P < 0.001), 16.8 (P < 0.001), and 7.31 (P < 0.001), respectively. Of resected nodules, 5 were malignant. False-negative rate (FNR) was 1.7%, presuming all unresected nodules were truly benign and 13.2% restricting analysis to resected cases. The FNR was significantly higher in nodules with a high-risk sonographic appearance for cancer (American Thyroid Association high-risk classification and American College of Radiology Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data Systems score of 5) compared with nodules with all other sonographic categories (11.8% vs 1.1%; P = 0.03 and 11.1% vs 1.1%; P = 0.02, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Younger age, larger nodule size, presence of an Afirma suspicious nodule other than the index nodule, and compressive symptoms were associated with a higher rate of surgery. The FNR of benign Afirma was significantly higher in nodules with high-risk sonographic features.

Thyroid nodules: diagnostic evaluation based on thyroid cancer risk assessment

Thyroid nodules are extremely common and can be detected by sensitive imaging in more than 60% of the general population. They are often identified in patients without symptoms who are undergoing evaluation for other medical complaints. Indiscriminate evaluation of thyroid nodules with thyroid biopsy could cause a harmful epidemic of diagnoses of thyroid cancer, but inadequate selection of thyroid nodules for biopsy can lead to missed diagnoses of clinically relevant thyroid cancer. Recent clinical guidelines advocate a more conservative approach in the evaluation of thyroid nodules based on risk assessment for thyroid cancer, as determined by clinical and ultrasound features to guide the need for biopsy. Moreover, newer evidence suggests that for patients with indeterminate thyroid biopsy results, a combined assessment including the initial ultrasound risk stratification or other ancillary testing (molecular markers, second opinion on thyroid cytology) can further clarify the risk of thyroid cancer and the management strategies. This review summarizes the clinical importance of adequate evaluation of thyroid nodules, focuses on the clinical evidence for diagnostic tests that can clarify the risk of thyroid cancer, and highlights the importance of considering the patient's values and preferences when deciding on management strategies in the setting of uncertainty about the risk of thyroid cancer.

Thyroid Nodule Molecular Testing: Is It Ready for Prime Time?

Cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules remain a diagnostic and clinical challenge, and molecular testing has been advocated and advanced as a diagnostic modality to help guide treatment. While studies have expounded on the improved diagnostic certainty with these tests, data demonstrating meaningful clinical impact and supporting their routine use is still limited at best. In this review, we discuss the limitations regarding diagnostic accuracy, impact on surgical decision-making and outcomes, and cost-effectiveness of molecular testing. By highlighting the limitations of these tests, we aim to promote more thoughtful utilization of these tools in the management of thyroid nodules going forward.