Risk of the Watch-and-Wait Concept in Surgical Treatment of Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm

Racial disparities in rates of invasiveness of resected intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms in the United States

BACKGROUND

Racial and ethnic disparities have been observed in the multidisciplinary management of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm is the most common identifiable precursor to pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, where early surgical intervention before the development of an invasive intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm improves survival. The association of race/ethnicity with the risk of identifying invasive intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms during resection has not been previously defined.

METHODS

The American College of Surgeons National Quality Improvement Program targeted pancreatectomy database (2014-2021) was queried for patients with race/ethnicity data who underwent resection of an intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm. Backward Wald logistic regression modeling (P ≤ 0.05 for entry; P > .10 for removal) was used to identify independent predictors of invasion.

RESULTS

A total of 4,505 cases of resected intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms were identified, with 923 (20.5%) demonstrating invasive intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms. The cohort of individuals other than non-Hispanic Whites were significantly more likely to have invasive intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (White, 19.9%; Black, 24.2%; Asian, 23.7%; Hispanic, 22.6%; P = .026). Such disparity could not be explained by greater comorbidity, as non-White patients were significantly younger (age <65 years: 41.7% vs 33.2%, P < .001) and had better physical status (American Society of Anesthesiologists score ≤2: 28.8% vs 25.2%, P = .053). After controlling for clinicodemographic variables, being an individual of race/ethnicity other than White was independently associated with higher odds of invasive intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (odds ratio, 1.280; 95% confidence interval, 1.046-1.566; P = .017). No differences in postoperative morbidity were observed.

CONCLUSION

In a national cohort of patients with resected intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms, individuals who identified as being of race/ethnicity other than White were significantly more likely to have invasive intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms during surgical resection.

Long-Term Oncologic Outcome following Duodenum-Preserving Pancreatic Head Resection for Benign Tumors, Cystic Neoplasms, and Neuroendocrine Tumors: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) has a considerable surgical risk for complications and late metabolic morbidity. Parenchyma-sparing resection of benign tumors has the potential to cure patients associated with reduced procedure-related short- and long-term complications.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Pubmed, Embase, and Cochrane libraries were searched for studies reporting surgery-related complications following PD and duodenum-preserving total (DPPHRt) or partial (DPPHRp) pancreatic head resection for benign tumors. A total of 38 cohort studies that included data from 1262 patients were analyzed. In total, 729 patients underwent DPPHR and 533 PD.

RESULTS

Concordance between preoperative diagnosis of benign tumors and final histopathology was 90.57% for DPPHR. Cystic and neuroendocrine neoplasms (PNETs) and periampullary tumors (PATs) were observed in 497, 89, and 31 patients, respectively. In total, 34 of 161 (21.1%) patients with intraepithelial papillar mucinous neoplasm exhibited severe dysplasia in the final histopathology. The meta-analysis, when comparing DPPHRt and PD, revealed in-hospital mortality of 1/362 (0.26%) and 8/547 (1.46%) patients, respectively [OR 0.48 (95% CI 0.15-1.58); p = 0.21], and frequency of reoperation of 3.26 % and 6.75%, respectively [OR 0.52 (95% CI 0.28-0.96); p = 0.04]. After a follow-up of 45.8 ± 26.6 months, 14/340 patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms/mucinous cystic neoplasms (IPMN/MCN, 4.11%) and 2/89 patients with PNET (2.24%) exhibited tumor recurrence. Local recurrence at the resection margin and reoccurrence of tumor growth in the remnant pancreas was comparable after DPPHR or PD [OR 0.94 (95% CI 0.178-5.34); p = 0.96].

CONCLUSIONS

DPPHR for benign, premalignant neoplasms provides a cure for patients with low risk of tumor recurrence and significantly fewer early surgery-related complications compared with PD. DPPHR has the potential to replace PD for benign, premalignant cystic and neuroendocrine neoplasms.

Association of high-risk stigmata and worrisome features with advanced neoplasia in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN): A systematic review

BACKGROUND

This systematic review aimed to assess the diagnostic accuracy of the International Consensus Fukuoka Guidelines (ICG2017) in identifying high-risk lesions of Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms (IPMNs).

METHODS

The ICG2017 revision committee conducted a comprehensive literature review to establish evidence-based statements on IPMNs. The review focused on articles examining the diagnostic value of imaging features (e.g., cyst or main pancreatic duct diameter), clinical symptoms associated with IPMN, and serum biomarkers. Five clinical questions regarding high-risk stigmata (HRS) and worrisome features (WF) in the ICG2017 guidelines were addressed.

RESULTS

A total of 210 articles were reviewed. The findings revealed a significant association between the presence of mural nodules ≥5 mm in diameter or solid components with contrast enhancement and the diagnosis of high-grade dysplasia or invasive carcinoma. Contrast-enhanced diagnostic tools, such as CT, MRI, or EUS, demonstrated the highest prediction rate and were recommended. Positive cytology was identified as an HRS, while symptoms like acute pancreatitis and cyst diameter growth ≥2.5 mm per year were considered WFs. The use of nomograms and multiple diagnostic factors was recommended for optimal IPMN management.

CONCLUSIONS

This systematic review provides evidence supporting the improved diagnostic accuracy of ICG2017 in identifying high-risk lesions of IPMN. The multidisciplinary incorporation of HRS and WF based on imaging findings and clinical symptoms is crucial. These findings should inform the revision of ICG2017, enhancing the evaluation and management of IPMN patients. By implementing these recommendations, clinicians can make more informed decisions, leading to better diagnosis and treatment outcomes for high-risk IPMN cases.

Advances in the management of pancreatic cancer

Pancreatic cancer remains among the malignancies with the worst outcomes. Survival has been improving, but at a slower rate than other cancers. Multimodal treatment, including chemotherapy, surgical resection, and radiotherapy, has been under investigation for many years. Because of the anatomical characteristics of the pancreas, more emphasis on treatment selection has been placed on local extension into major vessels. Recently, the development of more effective treatment regimens has opened up new treatment strategies, but urgent research questions have also become apparent. This review outlines the current management of pancreatic cancer, and the recent advances in its treatment. The review discusses future treatment pathways aimed at integrating novel findings of translational and clinical research.

Systematic review of challenging issues in pathology of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms

BACKGROUND

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) are a cystic precursor to pancreatic cancer. IPMNs deemed clinically to be at high-risk for malignant progression are frequently treated with surgical resection, and pathological examination of the pancreatectomy specimen is a key component of the clinical care of IPMN patients.

METHODS

Systematic literature reviews were conducted around eight topics of clinical relevance in the examination of pathological specimens in patients undergoing resection of IPMN.

RESULTS

This review provides updated perspectives on morphological subtyping of IPMNs, classification of intraductal oncocytic papillary neoplasms, nomenclature for high-grade dysplasia, assessment of T stage, distinction of carcinoma associated or concomitant with IPMN, role of molecular assessment of IPMN tissue, role of intraoperative assessment by frozen section, and preoperative evaluation of cyst fluid cytology.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis provides the foundation for data-driven approaches to several challenging issues in the pathology of IPMNs.

Risk Perceptions and Risk Thresholds Among Surgeons in the Management of Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to determine whether surgeon variation in management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) is driven by differences in risk perception and quantify surgeons' risk threshold for changing their recommendations.

BACKGROUND

Surgeons vary widely in management of IPMN.

METHODS

We conducted a survey of members of the Americas HepatoPancreatoBiliary Association, presented participants with 2 detailed clinical vignettes and asked them to choose between surgical resection and surveillance. We also asked them to judge the likelihood that the IPMN harbors cancer and that the patient would have a serious complication if surgery was performed. Finally, we asked surgeons to rate the level of cancer risk at which they would change their treatment recommendation. We examined the association between surgeons' treatment recommendations and their risk perception and risk threshold.

RESULTS

One hundred fifty surgeons participated in the study. Surgeons varied in their recommendations for surgery [19% for vignette 1 (V1) and 12% for V2] and in their perception of the cancer risk (interquartile range: 2%-10% for V1 and V2) and risk of surgical complications (V1 interquartile range: 10%-20%, V2 20-30%). After adjusting for surgeon characteristics, surgeons who were above the median in cancer risk perception were 22 percentage points (27% vs 5%) more likely to recommend resection than those who were below the median (95% CI: 11%-4%; P <0.001). The median risk threshold at which surgeons would change their recommendation was 15% (V1 and V2). Surgeons who recommended surgery had a lower risk threshold for changing their recommendation than those who recommended surveillance (V1: 10.0 vs 15.0, P =0.06; V2: 7.0 vs 15.0, P =0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The treatment that patients receive for IPMNs depends greatly on how their surgeons perceive the risk of cancer in the lesion. Efforts to improve cancer risk prediction for IPMNs may lead to decreased variations in care.

Surveillance for Presumed BD-IPMN of the Pancreas: Stability, Size, and Age Identify Targets for Discontinuation

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Currently, most patients with branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMN) are offered indefinite surveillance, resulting in health care costs with questionable benefits regarding cancer prevention. This study sought to identify patients in whom the risk of cancer is equivalent to an age-matched population, thereby justifying discontinuation of surveillance.

METHODS

International multicenter study involving presumed BD-IPMN without worrisome features (WFs) or high-risk stigmata (HRS) at diagnosis who underwent surveillance. Clusters of individuals at risk for cancer development were defined according to cyst size and stability for at least 5 years, and age-matched controls were used for comparison using standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) for pancreatic cancer.

RESULTS

Of 3844 patients with presumed BD-IPMN, 775 (20.2%) developed WFs and 68 (1.8%) HRS after a median surveillance of 53 (interquartile range 53) months. Some 164 patients (4.3%) underwent surgery. Of the overall cohort, 1617 patients (42%) remained stable without developing WFs or HRS for at least 5 years. In patients 75 years or older, the SIR was 1.12 (95% CI, 0.23-3.39), and in patients 65 years or older with stable lesions smaller than 15 mm in diameter after 5 years, the SIR was 0.95 (95% CI, 0.11-3.42). The all-cause mortality for patients who did not develop WFs or HRS for at least 5 years was 4.9% (n = 79), and the disease-specific mortality was 0.3% (n = 5).

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of developing pancreatic malignancy in presumed BD-IPMN without WFs or HRS after 5 years of surveillance is comparable to that of the general population depending on cyst size and patient age. Surveillance discontinuation could be justified after 5 years of stability in patients older than 75 years with cysts <30 mm, and in patients 65 years or older who have cysts ≤15 mm.

Risk Models for Pancreatic Cyst Diagnosis

The overall prevalence of pancreatic cysts (PCs) is high in the general population. In clinical practice PCs are often incidentally discovered and are classified into benign, premalignant, and malignant lesions according to the World Health Organization. For this reason, in the absence of reliable biomarkers, to date clinical decision-making relies mostly on risk models based on morphological features. The aim of this narrative review is to present the current knowledge regarding PC's morphologic features with related estimated risk of malignancy and discuss available diagnostic tools to minimize clinically relevant diagnostic errors.

Innovation in the Surgical Management of Pancreatic Cystic Neoplasms: Same Operations, Narrower Indications, and an Individualized Approach to Decision-Making

Historically, the management of pancreatic cystic neoplasms (PCN) has been operative. Early intervention for premalignant lesions, including intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) and mucinous cystic neoplasms (MCN), offers an opportunity to prevent pancreatic cancer-with potential decrement to patients' short-term and long-term health. The operations performed have remained fundamentally the same, with most patients undergoing pancreatoduodenectomy or distal pancreatectomy using oncologic principles. The role of parenchymal-sparing resection and total pancreatectomy remains controversial. We review innovations in the surgical management of PCN, focusing on the evolution of evidence-based guidelines, short-term and long-term outcomes, and individualized risk-benefit assessment.

Surgery for intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms in young patients: High-risk population

BACKGROUND

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas are uncommon in young individuals. Management of these patients is challenging because the risk of malignancy and recurrence after surgery remains unclear. The aim of the present study was to assess the long-term risk for intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm recurrence after surgery for intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms in patients ≤50 years of age.

METHODS

Perioperative and long-term follow-up data of patients who had undergone surgery for intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms between 2004 and 2020 were extracted from a prospective unicentric database and retrospectively analyzed.

RESULTS

Seventy-eight patients underwent surgical treatment for benign intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (low-grade n = 22 and intermediate-grade n = 21) and malignant intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (high-grade n = 16 and intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm-associated carcinoma n = 19). Severe postoperative morbidity (Clavien-Dindo ≥III) was found in 14 patients (18%). The median length of hospital stay was 10 days. No perioperative mortality was observed. The median length of follow-up was 72 months. Recurrence of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm-associated carcinoma was found in 6 patients (19%) with malignant intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm and 1 patient (3%) with benign intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm.

CONCLUSION

Surgery for intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm is safe and can be performed with low morbidity and potentially no mortality in young patients. Given the high rate of malignancy (45%), these patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms represent a high-risk population, and prophylactic surgical treatment should be considered in these patients with long life expectancies. Regular clinical and radiologic follow-up examinations are important to rule out disease recurrence, which is high, especially in patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm-associated carcinoma.

Static and Dynamic 68Ga-FAPI PET/CT for the Detection of Malignant Transformation of Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasia of the Pancreas

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) may arise from intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) with malignant transformation, but a significant portion of IPMN remains to show benign behavior. Therefore, it is important to differentiate between benign IPMN and IPMN lesions undergoing malignant transformation. However, nonoperative differentiation by ultrasound, CT, MRI, and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) is still unsatisfactory. Here, we assessed the clinical feasibility of additional assessment of malignancy by PET using ⁶⁸Ga-labeled fibroblast activation protein inhibitors (⁶⁸Ga-FAPI PET) in 25 patients with MRI- or CT-proven cystic pancreatic lesions. Methods: Twenty-five patients with cystic pancreatic lesions who were followed up in the European Pancreas Center of Heidelberg University hospital and who were led to surgical resection or fine-needle aspiration due to suspicious clinical, laboratory chemistry, or radiologic findings were examined by static (all patients) and dynamic (20 patients) ⁶⁸Ga-FAPI PET. Cystic pancreatic lesions were delineated and SUV_max and SUV_mean were determined. Time-activity curves and dynamic parameters (time to peak, K ₁, k ₂, K3, k ₄) were extracted from dynamic PET data. Receiver-operating curves of static and dynamic PET parameters were calculated. Results: Eleven of the patients had menacing IPMN (high-grade IPMN with [6 cases] or without [5 cases] progression into PDAC) and 11 low-grade IPMN; 3 patients had other benign entities. Menacing IMPN showed significantly elevated ⁶⁸Ga-FAPI uptake compared with low-grade IPMN and other benign cystic lesions. In dynamic imaging, menacing IPMN showed increasing time-activity curves followed by slow decrease afterward; time-activity curves of low-grade IPMN showed an immediate peak followed by rapid decrease for about 10 min and slower decrease for the rest of the time. Receiver-operating curves showed high sensitivity and specificity (area under the curve greater than 80%) of static and dynamic PET parameters for the differentiation of IPMN subtypes. Conclusion: ⁶⁸Ga-FAPI PET is a helpful new tool for the differentiation of menacing and low-grade IPMN and shows the potential to avoid unnecessary surgery for nonmalignant pancreatic IPMN.

Circulating cytokines allow for identification of malignant intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas

BACKGROUND

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) are the precursor lesions of pancreatic cancers, requiring active surgical intervention during cancer development. However, the current criteria for predicting malignant IPMNs remain challenging and limited. Hence, this study aimed to assess the discriminatory performance of circulating cytokines, including TNF-α, IL-2R, IL-6, and IL-8, then build a novel predictive model to improve the diagnostic accuracy.

METHOD

A total of 131 retrospective (from March 2016 to December 2019) and 53 prospective (from March 2020 to January 2021) patients who were histologically confirmed as IPMNs were consecutively collected and analyzed.

RESULT

The circulating levels of TNF-α, IL-2R, IL-6, and IL-8 were significantly elevated in malignant IPMNs, and were verified as independent factors for malignant IPMNs (p < 0.05). Then, a novel score, the circulating cytokine score (CCS), was calculated and demonstrated as an independent predictive indicator with a higher area under the curve (AUC) than each cytokine alone (p < 0.001). Besides the CCS, two high-risk stigmata features, the presence of solid component (PSC), and main pancreatic duct (MPD) dilation ≥10 mm were also demonstrated as independent indicators for predicting malignant IPMNs. Finally, a novel nomogram incorporating the CCS and these two high-risk stigmata features presented a remarkable diagnostic performance, both in the training and validation cohorts with AUCs of 0.928 and 0.873, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The CCS can be considered a novel independent predictive indicator for malignant IPMNs. Additionally, the formulated nomogram model integrating the CCS, PSC, and MPD ≥10 mm can be a valuable and promising tool for predicting the malignant transformation of IPMNs during long-term follow-ups to assist in timely and accurate surgical decisions.

Real-world costs and dynamics of surveillance in patients who underwent surgery for low-risk branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms

Surveillance costs and appropriateness of surgery of "low-risk" BD-IPMNs are relevant issues. In this study we evaluated the rate of correct indication for pancreatectomy defined as high grade dysplasia (HGD) at histology in 961 patients who underwent surveillance for a median of 5.1 years. Undertreatment and overtreatment were defined as invasive cancer and low grade dysplasia (LGD) at histology, respectively. Of the 66 patients (6.9%) who were operated, only 16 (23.8%) had a HGD while 40 (59.7%) had a LGD and 10 (14.9%) an invasive cancer, without differences regarding timing of surgery. The mean surveillance cost was € 194.9 ± 107.6 per patient-year, with a median cost of € 277.1 ± 148.2 in the correct surgery group compared with € 222.7 ± 111.6 and € 197 ± 102.7 in the overtreatment and undertreatment groups. The surveillance mean cost from diagnosis to surgery was € 854.8. Rate of appropriate surgery in BD-IPMNs under surveillance is low.

Use of Autoreactive Antibodies in Blood of Patients with Pancreatic Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms (IPMN) for Grade Distinction and Detection of Malignancy

(1) Background: A reliable non-invasive distinction between low- and high-risk pancreatic intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) is needed to effectively detect IPMN with malignant potential. This would improve preventative care and reduce the risk of developing pancreatic cancer and overtreatment. The present study aimed at exploring the presence of autoreactive antibodies in the blood of patients with IPMN of various grades of dysplasia. (2) Methods: A single-center cohort was studied composed of 378 serum samples from patients with low-grade IPMN (n = 91), high-grade IPMN (n = 66), IPMN with associated invasive cancer (n = 30), pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) stages T1 (n = 24) and T2 (n = 113), and healthy controls (n = 54). A 249 full-length recombinant human protein microarray was used for profiling the serum samples. (3) Results: 14 proteins were identified as potential biomarkers for grade distinction in IPMN, yielding high specificity but mediocre sensitivity. (4) Conclusions: The identified autoantibodies are potential biomarkers that may assist in the detection of malignancy in IPMN patients.

IPMN-associated pancreatic cancer: Survival, prognostic staging and impact of adjuvant chemotherapy

BACKGROUND

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN)-associated carcinoma is a subtype of pancreatic cancer for which prognostic factors, the validity of the AJCC/UICC staging system and the role of adjuvant chemotherapy remain unknown.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Clinicopathological, treatment and follow-up data of patients with IPMN-associated carcinoma undergoing resection between 2002 and 2018 were analyzed. Uni- and multivariable survival analyses were performed to identify prognostic factors.

RESULTS

Of 424 patients undergoing resection for IPMN-associated carcinoma, 77% patients had pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (IPMN-PDAC) and 23% had colloid carcinoma (IPMN-CC). Compared to IPMN-CC, IPMN-PDAC was diagnosed at more advanced tumor stages, more frequently involved lymph nodes, more frequently showed poor differentiation and were associated with higher rates of R1 resections. Resected IPMN-PDAC showed markedly shorter median overall survival than IPMN-CC (26.7 months vs. 91.3 months). The current AJCC/UICC staging system was validated for IPMN-associated carcinoma and for both of its subtypes. In multivariable analysis age ≥70 years, diabetes mellitus, high levels of Ca 19-9, IPMN-PDAC subtype, G3 tumors and higher AJCC/UICC stage were independently associated with shorter survival. Adjuvant therapy was not associated with improved survival in IPMN-associated carcinoma. Overall survival was comparable in patients receiving vs. not receiving adjuvant therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Survival after resection of IPMN-associated carcinoma depends on tumor stage, on histologic tumor subtype, grading, and Ca 19-9 levels. The current 8th edition of the AJCC/UICC staging system is applicable for IPMN-associated carcinoma and for both of its subtypes IPMN-PDAC and IPMN-CC. The role of adjuvant therapy for IPMN-associated carcinoma remains unclear.

State-of-the-art surgical treatment of IPMNs

Background

A “pandemic” of incidentally discovered pancreatic cyst neoplasms (PCNs) is ongoing. Among PCNs, intraductal papillary mucinous cystic neoplasms (IPMNs) are the most common and with their complex biology could represent a precursor lesion of pancreatic cancer. Although multiple guidelines exist to guide their treatment, there are still many “gray areas” on indications for surgery for IPMNs.

Methods

The current indications for surgery of IPMNs were reappraised, considering potential discrepancies between available evidence and guidelines policies. The practice at a high-volume center for the diagnosis and treatment of PCN was presented and discussed.

Results

Most IPMNs do not and will never require surgery, as they won’t progress to malignancy. The current literature is solid in identifying high-grade dysplasia (HGD) as the right and timely target for IPMN resection, but how to precisely assess its presence remains controversial and guidelines lack of accuracy in this regard. Multiple tumorigenic pathways of progression of IPMNs exist, and their knowledge will likely lead to more accurate tests for malignancy prediction in the future.

Conclusions

The surgical management of IPMNs still is a matter of debate. Indication for resection should be considered only in highly selected cases with the ideal target of HGD. Clinicians should critically interpret the guidelines’ indications, refer to a multidisciplinary team discussion, and always consider the outcome of an adequate counselling with the patient.

Low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels are associated with malignant intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms: A multicenter study

BACKGROUND

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) can potentially undergo malignant transformation. Studies have shown that high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c) was associated with the risk of cancer. In this study, the association between HDL-c and the incidence of malignancy in IPMNs was investigated.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

226 patients with histologically proven IPMNs who underwent surgery were included in the present study. Patients were assigned to a training group (n = 151) and validation group (n = 75). Patients' demographic information, clinical data, and histopathological evaluation findings were obtained from medical records. Malignant IPMNs were defined as lesions that showed high grade dysplasia and invasive carcinoma. Logistic regression analyses were used to show the association between HDL-c and malignant IPMNs. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were generated to analyze predictive performance.

RESULTS

The prevalence of low HDL-c levels was higher in patients with malignant IPMNs than in those with non-malignant IPMNs (P < 0.01) in both the training group and validation group. The prevalence of malignant IPMNs decreased with an increase in HDL-c levels both in patients with all types of IPMNs, as well as in those with branch-duct IPMNs (BD-IPMNs).Logistic analysis showed that low HDL-c levels were associated with malignant IPMNs (odds ratio (OR) = 20.56, 95 % confidence interval (CI): 2.58-163.64, P < 0.01) in all types of IPMNs and BD-IPMNs (OR = 17.6, 95 %CI: 1.16-268.46, P = 0.02 ).The predictive performance of mural nodules plus low HDL-c levels was higher than that of mural nodules alone or mural nodules plus cyst size for the identification of malignant BD-IPMNs.

CONCLUSIONS

HDL-c levels may serve a potential biomarker for identifying malignant IPMNs and improve the predictive ability of malignancy in BD-IPMNs.