Prognostic models for predicting clinical disease progression, worsening and activity in people with multiple sclerosis

Prognostic factors of disability progression in multiple sclerosis in real life: the OFSEP-high definition (OFSEP-HD) prospective cohort in France

PURPOSE

To determine prognostic factors of disability in multiple sclerosis (MS), that is, (1) identify determinants of the dynamics of disability progression; (2) study the effectiveness of disease-modifying treatments (DMTs); (3) merge determinants and DMTs for creating patient-centred prognostic tools and (4) conduct an economic analysis.

PARTICIPANTS

Individuals registered in the French Observatoire Français de la Sclérose en Plaques (OFSEP) database were included in this OFSEP-high definition cohort if they had a diagnosis of MS, were ≥15 years old and had an Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score <7. The outcomes will be assessed annually: (1) time to reach irreversible EDSS scores of 4, 6 and 7; (2) relapses and disease progression; (3) MRI-based progression, patient-reported outcomes, social consequences; and (4) combined outcomes on activity and progression. Clinical and quality-of-life data, MRI results and biological (blood, serum) samples will be collected at each follow-up.

FINDINGS TO DATE

A cohort of 2842 individuals, 73.4% women, mean (SD) age of 42.7 (11.6) years, median disease duration of 8.8 years, has been recruited from July 2018 to September 2020. The course of MS was relapsing remitting in 67.7%, secondary progressive in 11.9%. The mean annual relapse rate was 0.98. The disease-modifying treatment received was highly effective therapy in 50.3% and moderately effective therapy in 30.7%.

FUTURE PLANS

The participants will be followed until December 2026. Disease course up to four landmarks will be examined as predictors of disease progression: (1) diagnosis of MS; (2) relapse activity worsening and independent progression; (3) any recent disease activity and (4) any visit with absence of disease activity in the past 5 years. The marginal effectiveness and tolerability of treatments will be assessed. Stratified algorithms will be proposed for medical decision-making. Economic evaluation of disease cost and cost-effectiveness of new DMTs will be conducted from a public payer perspective.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03603457.

Rituximab for people with multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is the most common neurological cause of disability in young adults. Off-label rituximab for MS is used in most countries surveyed by the International Federation of MS, including high-income countries where on-label disease-modifying treatments (DMTs) are available. This updates the 2021 version of the review.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the benefits and harms of rituximab as 'first choice' and 'switching' treatment for adults with any form of MS.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, and three trials registers on 31 December 2023, together with reference checking and contacting study authors to identify unpublished studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and controlled non-randomised studies of interventions (NRSIs) comparing rituximab with placebo or another DMT for adults with any form of MS.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We followed standard Cochrane methods. We used RoB 1 to assess risk of bias in RCTs and ROBINS-I in NRSIs. We assessed the certainty of evidence for critical and important prioritised outcomes using GRADE: disability worsening, relapse, serious adverse events (SAEs), health-related quality of life (HRQoL), common infections, cancer, and mortality. We conducted separate analyses for rituximab as 'first choice' or as 'switching' treatment, relapsing or progressive MS, comparison with placebo or another DMT, and RCTs or NRSIs.

MAIN RESULTS

In this update, the number of study participants increased from 16,429 (15 studies) to 37,443 (28 studies; 13 new studies: 1 RCT and 12 NRSIs). The studies were conducted worldwide; most originated from high-income countries (25 studies). Public institutions funded 22 (79%) of the studies. Most studies investigated the effects of rituximab on people with relapsing MS (19 studies; 27,500 (73%) participants). We identified 12 ongoing studies. Rituximab as 'first choice' for active relapsing MS None of the included studies compared rituximab to placebo. One RCT compared rituximab to dimethyl fumarate, with 24 months' follow-up. Rituximab may reduce the recurrence of relapse (odds ratio (OR) 0.16, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.04 to 0.57; 195 participants; low-certainty evidence). The evidence is very uncertain on disability worsening and SAEs. Rituximab may result in little to no difference in upper respiratory tract infections (rate ratio (RR) 1.03, 95% CI 0.79 to 1.34; low-certainty evidence). The evidence is very uncertain for urinary tract, skin, and viral infections. HRQoL, cancer, and mortality were not reported. One NRSI compared rituximab to other DMTs, with 24 months' follow-up. Disability worsening was not reported. Compared with interferon beta or glatiramer acetate, rituximab likely delays relapse (hazard ratio (HR) 0.14, 95% CI 0.05 to 0.39; 1 study, 335 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). Compared with dimethyl fumarate and natalizumab, rituximab may delay relapse (dimethyl fumarate: HR 0.29, 95% CI 0.08 to 1.00; 1 study, 206 participants; low-certainty evidence; natalizumab: HR 0.24, 95% CI 0.06 to 1.00; 1 study, 170 participants; low-certainty evidence). The evidence for relapse is very uncertain when comparing rituximab to fingolimod. The effect on SAEs is uncertain due to very few events in all the comparison groups. No deaths were reported. HRQoL, common infections, and cancer were not reported. Rituximab as 'first choice' for primary progressive MS One RCT compared rituximab to placebo, with 24 months' follow-up. Rituximab likely results in little or no difference in disability worsening (OR 0.71, 95% CI 0.45 to 1.11; 439 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). The evidence is very uncertain on relapse, SAEs, common infections, cancer, and mortality. HRQoL was not reported. None of the included studies compared rituximab as 'first choice' treatment to other DMTs for primary or secondary progressive MS. Rituximab as 'switching' treatment for relapsing MS One small RCT compared rituximab to placebo, with 12 months' follow-up. Disability worsening was not reported. Rituximab may reduce recurrence of relapses (OR 0.38, 95% CI 0.16 to 0.93; 1 study, 104 participants; low-certainty evidence). The evidence is very uncertain regarding SAEs, common infections, cancer, and mortality. HRQoL was not reported. Twelve NRSIs compared rituximab to other DMTs, with 24 months' follow-up. The evidence on disability worsening is very uncertain in comparison with interferons or glatiramer acetate, natalizumab, alemtuzumab, and ocrelizumab. Rituximab likely delays time to relapse in comparison with interferons or glatiramer acetate (HR 0.18, 95% CI 0.07 to 0.49; 1 study, 1383 participants; moderate-certainty evidence), fingolimod (HR 0.08, 95% CI 0.02 to 0.32; 1 study, 256 participants; moderate-certainty evidence), and may result in little or no difference compared with natalizumab (HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.83 to 1.10; 3 studies, 1922 participants; low-certainty evidence). The evidence is very uncertain on relapse in comparison with alemtuzumab. There is uncertainty regarding SAEs when comparing rituximab to natalizumab and fingolimod. Rituximab likely increases serious common infections when compared with interferon beta or glatiramer acetate (OR 1.71, 95% CI 1.11 to 2.62; 1 study, 5477 participants; moderate-certainty evidence) and natalizumab (OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.08 to 2.32; 2 studies, 5001 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). The evidence for common infections is very uncertain when comparing rituximab to fingolimod and ocrelizumab. Rituximab may slightly reduce the risk of cancer compared with natalizumab (HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.62 to 0.99; 2 studies, 6202 participants; low-certainty evidence), whereas the evidence is very uncertain in comparison with fingolimod. The effect of rituximab on mortality is very uncertain due to very few events in all the comparison groups. HRQoL was not reported.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

For preventing relapses in relapsing MS, rituximab as 'first choice' and 'switching' treatment compares favourably with a wide range of approved DMTs. The protective effect of rituximab against disability worsening is uncertain. There is limited information to determine the effect of rituximab on primary progressive MS. There is limited evidence for long-term adverse events of rituximab in people with MS. Evidence for serious adverse events, cancer, and mortality was of very low certainty due to few events. There is an increased risk of serious (hospital-treated) infections with rituximab compared with other DMTs, although the absolute risk is low. High-quality (prospectively registered) NRSIs should be conducted to draw more reliable conclusions about the potential benefits and harms of rituximab in people with MS.

Deep medullary veins: a promising neuroimaging marker for neurodegeneration in multiple sclerosis

Background

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic autoimmune disease of the central nervous system (CNS). Recent studies have shown that different forms of vascular abnormalities may be related to the pathogenesis of MS. Susceptibility-weighted imaging (SWI) can directly image intracranial venules. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between deep medullary veins (DMVs) and the degree of neurodegeneration in patients with MS.

Methods

In this prospective cross-sectional study, 34 patients with MS and 30 age-matched healthy controls (HCs) were recruited. The count and score of DMVs, which can reflect the visibility and continuity of DMVs were evaluated based on SWI. The differences between the group with a high DMV score (DMV >10) and the group with a low DMV score (DMV ≤10) were assessed. The association of DMV change with neurodegeneration neuroimaging markers [including amount and volume of white matter lesion (WML), degree of cortical atrophy, whole-brain atrophy, and deep gray matter (DGM) atrophy] and clinical Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) were observed in patients with MS.

Results

It was found that compared with controls, patients with MS (n=34) had a significantly lower DMV count (P<0.001) and a significantly higher DMV score (P<0.001). The low- and high-DMV score groups differed significantly in terms of EDSS (P=0.048) and neurodegeneration neuroimaging indicators, including WML volume (P=0.015), brain parenchymal fraction (BPF) (P=0.047), thalamic fraction (P=0.036), and caudate fraction (P=0.015). In the correlation analysis of the MS group, DMV count was negatively correlated with the number of WMLs (r=-0.535; P=0.001) and the WML volume (r=-0.416; P=0.014) but positively correlated with the neuroimaging measurements reflecting the degree of whole-brain atrophy and DGM atrophy. Furthermore, the DMV score was positively correlated with EDSS (r=0.450; P=0.008), number of WMLs (r=0.490; P=0.003), and WML volumes (r=0.635; P=0.001) but negatively correlated with the neuroimaging measurements reflecting the degree of whole-brain atrophy and DGM atrophy.

Conclusions

Reduced DMV visibility and continuity could reflect the severity of neurodegeneration in patients with MS. DMV count and score may be imaging indicators for assessing the severity of MS.

Scoping review of clinical decision support systems for multiple sclerosis management: Leveraging information technology and massive health data

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a complex autoimmune disease of the central nervous system, with numerous therapeutic options, but a lack of biomarkers to support a mechanistic approach to precision medicine. A computational approach to precision medicine could proceed from clinical decision support systems (CDSSs). They are digital tools aiming to empower physicians through the clinical applications of information technology and massive data. However, the process of their clinical development is still maturing; we aimed to review it in the field of MS.

METHODS

For this scoping review, we screened systematically the PubMed database. We identified 24 articles reporting 14 CDSS projects and compared their technical and software development aspects.

RESULTS

The projects position themselves in various contexts of usage with various algorithmic approaches: expert systems, CDSSs based on similar patients' data visualization, and model-based CDSSs implementing mathematical predictive models. So far, no project has completed its clinical development up to certification for clinical use with global release. Some CDSSs have been replaced at subsequent project iterations. The most advanced projects did not necessarily report every step of clinical development in a dedicated article (proof of concept, offline validation, refined prototype, live clinical evaluation, comparative prospective evaluation). They seek different software distribution options to integrate into health care: internal usage, "peer-to-peer," and marketing distribution.

CONCLUSIONS

This review illustrates the potential of clinical applications of information technology and massive data to support MS management and helps clarify the roadmap for future projects as a multidisciplinary and multistep process.

Cladribine use trend in Latin America: the changes in patient profile impact in the drug effectiveness

INTRODUCTION

Cladribine was approved for Multiple Sclerosis (MS) in our country in 2018. A previous study by our group showed that its use among high efficacy therapies options has been increasing along the years.

OBJECTIVE

to analyze the cladribine use trend across time since its approval.

METHOD

A retrospective cohort study was performed. People with MS (pwMS) treated with cladribine were included. Two periods were defined: P1 = 2018 - 2020 and P2 = 2021 - 2023. A comparative analysis was carry out between P1 and P2 to assess the trend of use, clinical/demographic characteristics, and effectiveness.

RESULTS

One hundred ninety- seven people with MS (pwMS) were included, mean EDSS: 2.2 ± 3.08, 72.6% female, mean age: 35.2 ± 9 years, mean disease duration: 6.6 ± 5.6 years, mean time lapse under cladribine: 26.1 ± 12.4 months. Regarding patient profile, we found significant differences between P1 and P2 in the MS evolution (p = 0.001) and EDSS ( p = 0.018) prior to initiation of cladribine. In the individualized analysis by year, we found a decrease in relapse number in the year prior to starting cladribine (p = 0.02). A higher proportion of No Evidence of Disease Activity (NEDA) was found in patients treated at P2 compared to those treated at P1 (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

An earlier use of cladribine achieved a significant increase in reaching NEDA. This learning curve in the use of cladribine allows a better identification of the candidate patient and influences the treatment effectiveness.

Glycolysis-associated lncRNAs in cancer energy metabolism and immune microenvironment: a magic key

The dependence of tumor cells on glycolysis provides essential energy and raw materials for their survival and growth. Recent research findings have indicated that long chain non-coding RNAs (LncRNAs) have a key regulatory function in the tumor glycolytic pathway and offer new opportunities for cancer therapy. LncRNAs are analogous to a regulatory key during glycolysis. In this paper, we review the mechanisms of LncRNA in the tumor glycolytic pathway and their potential therapeutic strategies, including current alterations in cancer-related energy metabolism with lncRNA mediating the expression of key enzymes, lactate production and transport, and the mechanism of interaction with transcription factors, miRNAs, and other molecules. Studies targeting LncRNA-regulated tumor glycolytic pathways also offer the possibility of developing new therapeutic strategies. By regulating LncRNA expression, the metabolic pathways of tumor cells can be interfered with to inhibit tumor growth and metastasis, thus affecting the immune and drug resistance mechanisms of tumor cells. In addition, lncRNAs have the capacity to function as molecular markers and target therapies, thereby contributing novel strategies and approaches to the field of personalized cancer therapy and prognosis evaluation. In conclusion, LncRNA, as key molecules regulating the tumor glycolysis pathway, reveals a new mechanism of abnormal metabolism in cancer cells. Future research will more thoroughly investigate the specific mechanisms of LncRNA glycolysis regulation and develop corresponding therapeutic strategies, thereby fostering new optimism for the realization of precision medicine.

Prognostic models in multiple sclerosis: progress and challenges in clinical integration

As a chronic inflammatory disease of the central nervous system, multiple sclerosis (MS) is of great individual health and socio-economic significance. To date, there is no prognostic model that is used in routine clinical care to predict the very heterogeneous course of the disease. Despite several research groups working on different prognostic models using traditional statistics, machine learning and/or artificial intelligence approaches, the use of published models in clinical decision making is limited because of poor model performance, lack of transferability and/or lack of validated models. To provide a systematic overview, we conducted a "Cochrane review" that assessed 75 published prediction models using relevant checklists (CHARMS, PROBAST, TRIPOD). We have summarized the relevant points from this analysis here so that the use of prognostic models for therapy decisions in clinical routine can be successful in the future.

Identification and validation of the clinical prediction model and biomarkers based on chromatin regulators in colon cancer by integrated analysis of bulk- and single-cell RNA sequencing data

Background

Chromatin regulators (CRs) are implicated in the development of cancer, but a comprehensive investigation of their role in colon adenocarcinoma (COAD) is inadequate. The purpose of this study is to find CRs that can provide recommendations for clinical diagnosis and treatment, and to explore the reasons why they serve as critical CRs.

Methods

We obtained data from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) databases. Weighted Gene Co-Expression Network Analysis (WGCNA) screened tumor-associated CRs. LASSO-Cox regression was used to construct the model and to screen key CRs together with support vector machine (SVM), the univariate Cox regression. We used single-cell data to explore the expression of CRs in cells and their communication. Immune infiltration, immune checkpoints, mutation, methylation, and drug sensitivity analyses were performed. Gene expression was verified by quantitative real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR). Pan-cancer analysis was used to explore the importance of hub CRs.

Results

We finally obtained 32 tumor-associated CRs. The prognostic model was constructed based on RCOR2, PPARGC1A, PKM, RAC3, PHF19, MYBBP1A, ORC1, and EYA2 by the LASSO-Cox regression. Single-cell data revealed that the model was immune-related. Combined with immune infiltration analysis, immune checkpoint analysis, and tumor immune dysfunction and exclusion (TIDE) analysis, the low-score risk group had more immune cell infiltration and better immune response. Mutation and methylation analysis showed that multiple CRs may be mutated and methylated in colon cancer. Drug sensitivity analysis revealed that the low-risk group may be more sensitive to several drugs and PKM was associated with multiple drugs. Combined with machine learning, PKM is perhaps the most critical gene in CRs. Pan-cancer analysis showed that PKM plays a role in the prognosis of cancers.

Conclusions

We developed a prognostic model for COAD based on CRs. Increased expression of the core gene PKM is linked with a poor prognosis in several malignancies.

Prospective study validating a multidimensional treatment decision score predicting the 24-month outcome in untreated patients with clinically isolated syndrome and early relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, the ProVal-MS study

INTRODUCTION

In Multiple Sclerosis (MS), patients´ characteristics and (bio)markers that reliably predict the individual disease prognosis at disease onset are lacking. Cohort studies allow a close follow-up of MS histories and a thorough phenotyping of patients. Therefore, a multicenter cohort study was initiated to implement a wide spectrum of data and (bio)markers in newly diagnosed patients.

METHODS

ProVal-MS (Prospective study to validate a multidimensional decision score that predicts treatment outcome at 24 months in untreated patients with clinically isolated syndrome or early Relapsing-Remitting-MS) is a prospective cohort study in patients with clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) or Relapsing-Remitting (RR)-MS (McDonald 2017 criteria), diagnosed within the last two years, conducted at five academic centers in Southern Germany. The collection of clinical, laboratory, imaging, and paraclinical data as well as biosamples is harmonized across centers. The primary goal is to validate (discrimination and calibration) the previously published DIFUTURE MS-Treatment Decision score (MS-TDS). The score supports clinical decision-making regarding the options of early (within 6 months after study baseline) platform medication (Interferon beta, glatiramer acetate, dimethyl/diroximel fumarate, teriflunomide), or no immediate treatment (> 6 months after baseline) of patients with early RR-MS and CIS by predicting the probability of new or enlarging lesions in cerebral magnetic resonance images (MRIs) between 6 and 24 months. Further objectives are refining the MS-TDS score and providing data to identify new markers reflecting disease course and severity. The project also provides a technical evaluation of the ProVal-MS cohort within the IT-infrastructure of the DIFUTURE consortium (Data Integration for Future Medicine) and assesses the efficacy of the data sharing techniques developed.

PERSPECTIVE

Clinical cohorts provide the infrastructure to discover and to validate relevant disease-specific findings. A successful validation of the MS-TDS will add a new clinical decision tool to the armamentarium of practicing MS neurologists from which newly diagnosed MS patients may take advantage. Trial registration ProVal-MS has been registered in the German Clinical Trials Register, `Deutsches Register Klinischer Studien` (DRKS)-ID: DRKS00014034, date of registration: 21 December 2018; https://drks.de/search/en/trial/DRKS00014034.