Quantitative analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on the emergency medical services system in Tokyo

Analyzing emergency call volume, call durations, and unanswered calls during the first two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic compared to 2019: An observational study of routine data from seven bavarian dispatch centres

Background

The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and the corresponding implementation of measures such as stay-at-home orders and curfews had a major impact on health systems, including emergency medical services. This study examined the effect of the pandemic on call volumes, duration of calls and unanswered calls to the emergency number 112.

Method

For this retrospective, descriptive study, 986,650 calls to seven emergency dispatch centres in Bavaria between January 01, 2019 and May 31, 2021 were analysed. The absolute number of calls and calls per 100,000 inhabitants as well as the number of unanswered calls are reported. The Mann‒Whitney U test was used to compare mean call durations between 2019 and 2020/2021 during several periods.

Results

Call volume declined during the pandemic, especially during periods with strict lockdown restrictions. The largest decline (-12.9 %) occurred during the first lockdown. The largest reduction in the number of emergency calls overall (-25.3 %) occurred on weekends during the second lockdown. Emergency call duration increased, with the largest increase (+13 s) occurring during the "light" lockdown. The number of unanswered calls remained at a similar level as before the pandemic.

Conclusion

This study showed that the studied Bavarian dispatch centres experienced lower call volumes and longer call durations during the first two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic (up to May 2021). Longer call durations could be the result of additional questions to identify potentially infectious patients. The fact that the number of unanswered calls hardly changed may indicate that the dispatch centres were not overwhelmed during the study period.

Extension of Selection Time for the Emergency Destination of Patients with a Fever Due to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic: A Difference-in-differences Analysis

Objective During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic period, an extended total activity time (TAT) in emergency cases has been reported, especially in febrile patients. A brief selection time (ST) regarding the transport of patients to designated hospitals is vital to achieving a good outcome. However, to our knowledge, no studies have reported the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the ST. We therefore examined the impact of a fever on the ST for the transportation of emergency patients during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods We analyzed emergency medical services (EMS) data in Sapporo between January 2015 and December 2020. The primary outcome was the ST for the emergency destination of patients. The secondary outcomes were the number of inquiries, time from emergency call to arrival at the scene [call-to-scene time (CST)], time from arrival at the hospital to return base [arrival-to-return time (ART)], and TAT. We used a multivariable linear regression model to estimate the difference-in-differences effect. Results A total of 383,917 patients who were transported to the hospital were enrolled within the study period. The mean ST was 5.8 minutes in 2019 and 7.1 minutes in 2020. The difference-in-differences analyses showed that the mean ST increased by 2.52 minutes (p<0.001), the mean ART by 3.10 minutes (p<0.001), and the mean TAT by 7.27 minutes (p<0.001) for patients with a fever during the COVID-19 period. Conclusion This study showed that febrile patients had a longer ST, ART, and TAT during the 2020 COVID-19 period. Considering the COVID-19 pandemic and the threat of future pandemics, regional infection control and information-sharing should be conducted to reduce the EMS activity time.

Association between hospital internal medicine physician workforce and patient admissions during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan

BACKGROUND

Hospital physician workforce in Japan is the lowest among developed countries. Many patients with novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) with high risk of mortality could not be hospitalized during case surges in Japan and only about 5% of total acute care beds were used as COVID-19 beds nationwide. However, the relationship between the number of hospital physicians and patient admissions remains unclear. Thus, we aimed to evaluate this relationship in areas with the highest incidences during the surges.

METHODS

Data collection was performed for teaching hospitals accredited with the specialty of internal medicine in three prefectures which experienced the highest COVID-19 incidences in Japan (Tokyo, Osaka, Okinawa). Association was examined between the number of full-time physicians (internal medicine staff physicians and residents) and admissions of internal medicine patients through ambulance transport from April 2020 to March 2021. Analysis was conducted separately for community hospitals and university hospitals because the latter have roles as research institutions in Japan. Community hospitals included private, public, and semi-public hospitals.

RESULTS

Of 117 teaching hospitals in three prefectures, data from 108 teaching hospitals (83 community hospitals and 25 university hospitals) were available. A total of 102,400 internal medicine patients were admitted to these hospitals during the one-year period. Private hospitals received the greatest mean number of patient admissions (290 per 100 beds), followed by public hospitals (227) and semi-public hospitals (201), and university hospitals (94). Among community hospitals, a higher number of resident physicians per 100 beds was significantly associated with a greater number of patient admissions per 100 beds with beta coefficient of 11.6 (95% CI, 1.5 to 21.2, p = 0.025) admissions by one physician increase per 100 beds. There was no such association among university hospitals.

CONCLUSIONS

Community hospitals with many resident physicians accepted more internal medicine admissions through ambulance transport during the COVID-19 pandemic. An effective policy to counter physician shortage in hospitals in Japan may be to increase internal medicine resident physicians among community hospitals to save more lives.

Trends in the number of patients from traffic accidents and the state of emergency

Aim

During the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, the number of traffic accidents and injured patients was reported to be lower than that before the pandemic. However, little is known regarding the relationship between periods of the state of emergency and the number of patients who met with traffic accidents.

Methods

The numbers of trauma patients and deaths due to traffic accidents in Tokyo and Osaka were collected monthly from the statistics published by the police department. A state of emergency was declared four times in both cities. The number of trauma patients and deaths was compared between the emergency and other periods.

Results

The number of monthly patients per 100,000 due to traffic accidents during the state of emergency was significantly lower than that during other periods in Tokyo (16.56 versus 18.20; P = 0.008) and Osaka (24.12 versus 28.79; P = 0.002). However, the monthly number of deaths during the state of emergency was not significantly different compared with those during the other periods in Tokyo (0.08 versus 0.08; P = 0.65) and Osaka (0.10 versus 0.14; P = 0.082). A decrease in the number of trauma patients was observed before the emergency period; however, the reduction rate dropped as the period passed.

Conclusion

There were significantly fewer trauma patients due to traffic accidents during the state of emergency than during the other periods, with no significant difference in the number of deaths.

Sensitivity and specificity analyses of COVID-19 screening protocol for emergency medical services: A STARD-compliant population-based retrospective study

During the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, emergency medical services (EMS) has borne a huge burden in transporting emergency patients. However, the protocol's effect on identifying emergency patients who are likely to have COVID-19 is unknown. We aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of a prehospital COVID-19 screening protocol for EMS. We conducted this population-based retrospective study in Nara Prefecture, Japan. The Nara Prefectural Government implemented a screening protocol for COVID-19 comprising the following symptom criteria (fever, cough, sore throat, headache, malaise, dysgeusia, or anosmia) and epidemiological criteria (contact history with confirmed COVID-19 cases or people with upper respiratory symptoms, or travel to areas with high infection rate). A patient meeting at least one criterion of each class was considered positive. We evaluated all 51,351 patients from the regional EMS database of the Nara Prefecture (emergency Medical Alliance for Total Coordination of Healthcare) who were registered from June 15, 2020 to May 31, 2021 and had results of COVID-19 reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests. We assessed the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of this protocol. We also assessed how these outcomes changed by adding vital signs and conducted a 10-fold and 100-fold prevalence simulation. The screening protocol was used for 246/51351 patients (0.5%). Among them, 31 tested positive after EMS transportation. This protocol's sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV were 40.8%, 99.6%, 12.6%, and 99.9%, respectively. With the addition of ≥2 vital signs (body temperature ≥37.5 °C, respiratory rate ≥20 breaths/minute, and oxygen saturation <90%), sensitivity and PPV changed to 61.8% and 1.0%, respectively, while NPV remained 99.9%. With a 10-fold and 100-fold increase in disease, the protocol PPV would be 59.0% and 94.3%, and NPV would be 99.1% and 90.7%, respectively, and with additional vital signs, PPV would be 8.9% and 53.1%, and NPV would be 99.4% and 93.2%, respectively. This COVID-19 screening protocol helped enable EMS transport for patients with COVID-19 with a PPV of 12.6%. Adding other vital sign variables may improve its diagnostic value if the prevalence rate increases.

Emergency Transport Refusal during the Early Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Gyeonggi Province, South Korea

We analyzed the changes in patients’ clinical characteristics and transport refusal pre- and post-COVID-19 and identified the reasons for transport refusal using emergency medical services run sheet data from pre-COVID-19 (April−December 2019) and post-COVID-19 (April−December 2020) in Gyeonggi Province, South Korea. We included patients aged ≥18 years. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify the relationship between patients’ personal factors and clinical characteristics and emergency transport refusal. During the control and study periods, 612,681 cases were reported; the transport refusal rates during the control and study periods were 6.7% and 8.2%, respectively. Emergency transport refusal was associated with younger age, the male sex, a normal mental status, a shock index < 1, and trauma in both the pre- and post-COVID-19 periods. Although fever prevented transport refusal during the pre-COVID-19 period (aOR, 0.620; 95% CI, 0.567−0.679), it became a significant risk factor for transport refusal during the post-COVID-19 period (aOR, 1.619; 95% CI, 1.534−1.709). The most common reason for transport refusal by critically ill patients was “because it was not accepted within the jurisdiction and remote transport was required.” It is necessary to expand the response capacity of patients with fever in the community to reduce the refusal of transport by critically ill patients.