A Predictive Model for Assessment of the Risk of Mold Growth in Rapeseeds Stored in a bulk as a Decision Support Tool for Postharvest Management Systems

Predictive Models of Phytosterol Degradation in Rapeseeds Stored in Bulk Based on Artificial Neural Networks and Response Surface Regression

The need to maintain the highest possible levels of bioactive components contained in raw materials requires the elaboration of tools supporting their processing operations, starting from the first stages of the food production chain. In this study, artificial neural networks (ANNs) and response surface regression (RSR) were used to develop models of phytosterol degradation in bulks of rapeseed stored under various temperatures and water activity conditions (T = 12–30 °C and a_w = 0.75–0.90). Among ANNs, networks based on a multilayer perceptron (MLP) and a radial basis function (RBF) were tested. The model input constituted a_w, temperature and storage time, whilst the model output was the phytosterol level in seeds. The ANN-based modeling turned out to be more effective in estimating phytosterol levels than the RSR, while MLP-ANNs proved to be more satisfactory than RBF-ANNs. The approximation quality of the ANNs models depended on the number of neurons and the type of activation functions in the hidden layer. The best model was provided by the MLP-ANN containing nine neurons in the hidden layer equipped with the logistic activation function. The model performance evaluation showed its high prediction accuracy and generalization capability (R² = 0.978; RMSE = 0.140). Its accuracy was also confirmed by the elliptical joint confidence region (EJCR) test. The results show the high usefulness of ANNs in predictive modeling of phytosterol degradation in rapeseeds. The elaborated MLP-ANN model may be used as a support tool in modern postharvest management systems.