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Effect of confidence interval construction on judgment accuracy. JUDGMENT AND DECISION MAKING 2020. [DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500007920] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/04/2023]
Abstract
AbstractThree experiments (N = 550) examined the effect of an interval construction elicitation method used in several expert elicitation studies on judgment accuracy. Participants made judgments about topics that were either searchable or unsearchable online using one of two order variations of the interval construction procedure. One group of participants provided their best judgment (one step) prior to constructing an interval (i.e., lower bound, upper bound, and a confidence rating that the correct value fell in the range provided), whereas another group of participants provided their best judgment last, after the three-step confidence interval was constructed. The overall effect of this elicitation method was not significant in 8 out of 9 univariate tests. Moreover, the calibration of confidence intervals was not affected by elicitation order. The findings warrant skepticism regarding the benefit of prior confidence interval construction for improving judgment accuracy.
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Fan Y, Budescu DV, Mandel D, Himmelstein M. Improving Accuracy by Coherence Weighting of Direct and Ratio Probability Judgments. DECISION ANALYSIS 2019. [DOI: 10.1287/deca.2018.0388] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Yuyu Fan
- Data Science, AllianceBernstein LP, New York, New York 10105
| | - David V. Budescu
- Department of Psychology, Fordham University, Bronx, New York 10458
| | - David Mandel
- Intelligence, Influence and Collaboration Section, Toronto Research Centre, Defence Research and Development, Toronto, Ontario M3M 3B9, Canada
| | - Mark Himmelstein
- Department of Psychology, Fordham University, Bronx, New York 10458
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