A new simple morphology-based risk score is prognostic in stage I/II colon cancers

A Mass Spectrometry Imaging Based Approach for Prognosis Prediction in UICC Stage I/II Colon Cancer

Simple Summary

Tumor treatment is heavily dictated by the tumor progression status. However, in colon cancer, it is difficult to predict disease progression in the early stages. In this study, we have employed a proteomic analysis using matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization mass spectrometry imaging (MALDI-MSI). MALDI-MSI is a technique that measures the molecular content of (tumor) tissue. We analyzed tumor samples of 276 patients. If the patients developed distant metastasis, they were considered to have a more aggressive tumor type than the patients that did not. In this comparative study, we have developed bioinformatics methods that can predict the tendency of tumor progression and advance a couple of molecules that could be used as prognostic markers of colon cancer. The prediction of tumor progression can help to choose a more adequate treatment for each individual patient.

Abstract

Currently, pathological evaluation of stage I/II colon cancer, following the Union Internationale Contre Le Cancer (UICC) guidelines, is insufficient to identify patients that would benefit from adjuvant treatment. In our study, we analyzed tissue samples from 276 patients with colon cancer utilizing mass spectrometry imaging. Two distinct approaches are herein presented for data processing and analysis. In one approach, four different machine learning algorithms were applied to predict the tendency to develop metastasis, which yielded accuracies over 90% for three of the models. In the other approach, 1007 m/z features were evaluated with regards to their prognostic capabilities, yielding two m/z features as promising prognostic markers. One feature was identified as a fragment from collagen (collagen 3A1), hinting that a higher collagen content within the tumor is associated with poorer outcomes. Identification of proteins that reflect changes in the tumor and its microenvironment could give a very much-needed prediction of a patient’s prognosis, and subsequently assist in the choice of a more adequate treatment.

Interobserver variability in the H&E-based assessment of tumor budding in pT3/4 colon cancer: does it affect the prognostic relevance?

Tumor budding is a mostly accepted adverse prognostic factor in colorectal carcinoma. It is on the cusp of a widespread use after agreement was reached recently on uniform assessment criteria. We investigated whether the interobserver variability has a direct influence on the prognostic relevance in pT3/4 colon cancer in the background of different levels of experience of the investigators. In total, six investigators with different levels of experience evaluated tumor budding on H&E slides in 244 cases with primary diagnosed (2002-2011) colon carcinoma (pT3/4, N+/-, M0). High-grade tumor budding/budding grade 3 (defined as majority assessment among the investigators) was significantly associated with an adverse outcome (overall survival p = 0.03, cancer-specific survival p = 0.08) and the occurrence of distant metastasis (p = 0.009). However, a detailed analysis of the rating results of the individual investigators revealed that only ratings of one investigator (advanced resident) were associated with an adverse outcome (p = 0.01 cancer-specific survival, overall survival p = 0.09, distant metastasis p = 0.002). The results of another investigator (consultant) were significantly associated with distant metastasis (p = 0.007). The kappa values among the investigators have a range between 0.077 and 0.357 (median 0.166). Total agreement of all investigators existed in 109 cases (44.7%). Our results demonstrate that the evaluation of tumor budding on H&E slides in pT3/4 colon cancer goes along with a considerable interobserver variability among investigators of different levels of experience. Furthermore, our results reveal that these findings directly influence the prognostic value.

A new simple morphology-based risk score is prognostic in stage I/II colon cancers

A portion of stage I/II colon cancers (10-20%) exhibit an adverse clinical course. The administration of adjuvant chemotherapy is recommended only in certain high-risk situations. However, these risk factors recently failed to predict benefit from adjuvant therapy. We composed a new morphology-based risk score that includes pT1/2 versus 3/4 stage, vascular or lymphovascular invasion, invasion type according to Jass, tumor budding and paucity (less than two) of lymph nodes larger than 5 mm. The occurrence of each of these factors accounts for one point in the score (Range 0-5). This score was evaluated in a retrospective study that included 301 cases. The overall survival differed significantly between the three groups with median survival times of 103, 90, and 48 months, respectively. Multivariable analysis revealed morphology-based risk-high risk and low risk-as the sole independent factors for the prediction of death. Morphology-based risk scoring was superior to microsatellite status and NCCN risk stratification. This method identifies a group of patients that comprises 18% of the stage II cases with an adverse clinical course. Further studies are necessary to confirm its prognostic value and the possible therapeutic consequences.