Determining the molecular test for indeterminate thyroid nodules best suited for our practice: A quality assurance study

Assessing Bias and Limitations of Clinical Validation Studies of Molecular Diagnostic Tests for Indeterminate Thyroid Nodules: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: Molecular tests for thyroid nodules with indeterminate fine needle aspiration results are increasingly used in clinical practice; however, true diagnostic summaries of these tests are unknown. A systematic review and meta-analysis were completed to (1) evaluate the accuracy of commercially available molecular tests for malignancy in indeterminate thyroid nodules and (2) quantify biases and limitations in studies that validate those tests. Summary: PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science were systematically searched through July 2021. English language articles that reported original clinical validation attempts of molecular tests for indeterminate thyroid nodules were included if they reported counts of true-negative, true-positive, false-negative, and false-positive results. We performed screening and full-text review, followed by assessment of eight common biases and limitations, extraction of diagnostic and histopathological information, and meta-analysis of clinical validity using a bivariate linear mixed-effects model. Forty-nine studies were included. Meta-analysis of Afirma Gene expression classifiers (GEC; n = 38 studies) revealed a sensitivity of 0.92 (confidence interval: 0.90-0.94), specificity of 0.26 (0.20-0.32), negative likelihood ratio (LR-) of 0.32 (0.23-0.44), positive LR+ of 1.24 (1.15-1.35), and area under the curve (AUC) of 0.83 (0.74-0.89). Afirma Genomic Sequencing Classifier (GSC; n = 10) had a sensitivity of 0.94 (0.89-0.96), specificity of 0.38 (0.27-0.50), LR- of 0.18 (0.10-0.30), LR+ of 1.52 (1.28-1.87), and AUC of 0.91 (0.62-0.92). ThyroSeq v1 and v2 (n = 10) had a sensitivity of 0.86 (0.82-0.90), specificity of 0.74 (0.59-0.85), LR- of 0.19 (0.13-0.26), LR+ of 3.52 (2.08-5.92), and AUC of 0.86 (0.81-0.90). ThyroSeq v3 (n = 6) had a sensitivity of 0.92 (0.86-0.95), specificity of 0.41 (0.18-0.69), LR- of 0.24 (0.09-0.62), LR+ of 1.67 (1.09-2.98), and AUC of 0.90 (0.63-0.92). Fourteen percent of studies conducted a blinded histopathologic review of excised thyroid nodules, and 8% made the decision to go to surgery blind to molecular test results. Conclusions: Meta-analyses reveal a high diagnostic accuracy of molecular tests for thyroid nodule assessment of malignancy risk; however, these studies are subject to several limitations. Limitations and their potential clinical impacts must be addressed and, when feasible, adjusted for using valid statistical methodologies.

Risk of malignancy in cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules harboring thyroid stimulating hormone receptor mutations

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the frequency and risk of malignancy of TSHRpI568T mutations discovered in indeterminate thyroid nodules (ITN) within the Veracyte CLIA laboratory undergoing Afirma^® Genomic Sequencing Classifier (GSC) testing, and to evaluate a broader cohort of TSHR variants and their categorization as Afirma GSC benign (GSC-B) or suspicious (GSC-S). Finally, we seek to assess the risk of malignancy (ROM) of this group of TSHR mutated ITN in the GSC-S category.

METHODS

ITN submitted to Veracyte for Afirma GSC testing between October 2017 and February 2022 were analyzed for TSHR variants and rates of GSC-B and GSC-S were calculated based upon BIII or IV cytology, by TSHR variant codon amino acid (AA) substitution, age, and gender. For GSC-S samples, surgical pathology reports were requested, and the rate of malignancy was calculated.

RESULTS

Five percent of the ITN samples harbored an isolated TSHR variant and 5% of those were classified as GSC-S. Among TSHRpI568T samples, 96% were GSC-B and of the GSC-S samples, 21% were malignant. Among an unselected group of TSHR, absent TSHRpI568T mutations, 16.3% of GSC-S samples were malignant, all but one with codon mutations in the transmembrane subdomains of the TSHR. This prompted a dedicated evaluation of transmembrane codons which revealed a malignancy rate of 10.7% among GSC-S nodules. In total, 13/85 (15.3%) TSHR mutated ITN with Afirma GSC-S results were found to be malignant.

CONCLUSIONS

TSHR variants are rare in ITN, and most are categorized as benign under Afirma GSC testing which carries a < 4% risk of malignancy. For GSC-S ITN with TSHR mutations, the risk of malignancy is ≥= 15%, which is clinically meaningful and may alter treatment or monitoring recommendations for patients.

Yield and costs of molecular diagnostics on thyroid cytology slides in the Netherlands, adapting the Bethesda classification

Objective

To evaluate our institutional experience with molecular diagnostics (MD) on thyroid cytology smears, evaluate the costs and describe MD guided clinical management of indeterminate Bethesda III/V thyroid nodules.

Methods

We performed a retrospective review of 164 Bethesda III or V thyroid cytopathology reports subjected to MD from 2013 to 2020, that altered Bethesda classification or management. MD consisted of mutation and gene fusion analysis by next‐generation sequencing (NGS) of morphologically analysed and selected cytological slides. Findings were modelled to nationwide data on Bethesda incidences from ‘the Dutch Pathology Registry’ PALGA, and costs were estimated.

Results

82 of 164 cases received an upgrade in Bethesda class. Twenty cases changed from Bethesda III to IV/V, 62 from Bethesda III or V to VI, and 72 remained unaltered. We estimate net savings with implementing MD, by preventing 454 repeat cytology and 326 (diagnostic) hemithyroidectomies, to be at least 2 million Euro annually in the Netherlands. Per Bethesda III and V patient, net savings would be about 100 Euro and 4100 Euro, respectively.

Conclusion

NGS‐based MD on nucleic acids extracted directly from cytology slides is a feasible and cost saving tool for personalized management in indeterminate Bethesda III/V thyroid cytology. Based on the interpretation of our retrospective data, we assume that this approach results in less disease burden for the patient, reduced surgical interventions and complication risks, reduced sick leave, among others. Further evaluation of structural implementation of the presented approach in routine thyroid Bethesda III/V cytology in a prospective setting is warranted.

Diagnostic accuracy of molecular testing with three molecular markers on thyroid fine-needle aspiration cytology with abnormal category

BACKGROUND

Cases with abnormal category, determined by thyroid fine-needle aspiration (FNA), frequently undergo surgical resection, despite the majority of cases being identified as benign after resection. Additional diagnostic markers are needed to guide the management of patients with abnormal thyroid nodules.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The retrospective study enrolled 150 cases diagnosed abnormal by FNA cytology that had undergone molecular testing with three markers (BRAF V600E, NRAS, and KRAS) on the cell block. Seventy-one cases had a surgical follow-up.

RESULTS

When NIFTP is not considered as malignant, positive predictive values (PPVs) of cytology and combined cytology and molecular testing (CC-MT) were 67.6% (95% CI: 0.555-0.782) and 89.2% (95% CI: 0.746-0.970) (P = .004), respectively. The sensitivity of the CC-MT was 68.8%, specificity was 82.5%, and the false-positive rate was 17.4%. When NIFTP is considered as malignant, PPVs of cytology and CC-MT were 83.1% (95% CI: 0.743-0.918) and 94.6% (95% CI: 0.873-1.018) (P = .047), respectively. The sensitivity of the CC-MT was 59.3%, specificity was 83.3%, and the false-positive rate was 16.7%.

CONCLUSION

The addition of molecular testing with a small panel to FNA cytology may increase the PPV of cytology in abnormal categories. Small panel (BRAF V600E, KRAS, and NRAS) with high specificity and high PPVs may be used particularly for the detection of thyroid malignancy. Cell blocks can be an especially useful and straightforward method for molecular diagnostic studies.

Molecular Variants and Their Risks for Malignancy in Cytologically Indeterminate Thyroid Nodules

Background: Gene panels are routinely used to assess predisposition to hereditary cancers by simultaneously testing multiple susceptibility genes and/or variants. More recently, genetic panels have been implemented as part of solid tumor malignancy testing assessing somatic alterations. One example is targeted variant panels for thyroid nodules that are not conclusively malignant or benign upon fine-needle aspiration (FNA). We systematically reviewed published studies from 2009 to 2018 that contained genetic data from preoperative FNA specimens on cytologically indeterminate thyroid nodules (ITNs) that subsequently underwent surgical resection. Pooled prevalence estimates per gene and variant, along with their respective positive predictive values (PPVs) for malignancy, were calculated. Summary: Our systematic search identified 540 studies that were supplemented by 18 studies from bibliographies or personal files. Sixty-one studies met all inclusion criteria and included >4600 ITNs. Overall, 26% of nodules contained at least 1 variant or fusion. However, half of them did not include details on the specific gene, variant, and/or complete fusion pair reported for inclusion toward PPV calculations. The PPVs of genomic alterations reported at least 10 times were limited to BRAF^V600E (98%, 95% confidence interval [CI 96-99%]), PAX8/PPARG (55% [CI 34-78%]), HRAS^Q61R (45% [CI 22-72%]), BRAF^K601E (42% [CI 19-68%]), and NRAS^Q61R (38% [CI 23-55%]). Excluding BRAF^V600E, the pooled PPV for all other specified variants and fusions was 47%. Multiple variants within the same nodule were identified in ∼1% of ITN and carried a cumulative PPV of 77%. Conclusions: The chance that a genomic alteration predicts malignancy depends on the individual variant or fusion detected. Only five alterations were reported at least 10 times; BRAF^V600E had a PPV of 98%, while the remaining four had individual PPVs ranging from 38% to 55%. The small sample size of most variants and fusion pairs found among ITNs, however, limits confidence in their individual PPV point estimates. Better specific reporting of genomic alterations with cytological category, histological subtype, and cancer staging would facilitate better understanding of cancer prediction, and the independent contribution of the genomic profile to prognosis.