A Bayesian nested patch occupancy model to estimate steelhead movement and abundance

Estimating migration timing and abundance in partial migratory systems by integrating continuous antenna detections with physical captures

Many populations migrate between two different habitats (e.g. wintering/foraging to breeding area, mainstem-tributary, river-lake, river-ocean, river-side channel) as part of their life history. Detection technologies, such as passive integrated transponder (PIT) antennas or sonic receivers, can be placed at boundaries between habitats (e.g. near the confluence of rivers) to detect migratory movements of marked animals. Often, these detection systems have high detection probabilities and detect many individuals but are limited in their ability to make inferences about abundance because only marked individuals can be detected. Here, we introduce a mark-recapture modelling approach that uses detections from a double-array PIT antenna system to imply movement directionality from arrays and estimate migration timing. Additionally, when combined with physical captures, the model can be used to estimate abundances for both migratory and non-migratory groups and help quantify partial migration. We first test our approach using simulation, and results indicate our approach displayed negligible bias for total abundance (less than ±1%) and slight biases for state-specific abundance estimates (±1%-6%). We fit our model to array detections and physical captures of three native fishes (humpback chub [Gila cypha], flannelmouth sucker [Catostomus latipinnis] and bluehead sucker [Catostomus discobolus]) in the Little Colorado River (LCR) in Grand Canyon, AZ, a system that exhibits partial migration (i.e. includes residents and migrants). Abundance estimates from our model confirm that, for all three species, migratory individuals are much more numerous than residents. There was little difference in movement timing between 2021 (a year without preceding winter/spring floods) and 2022 (a year with a small flood occurring in early April). In both years, flannelmouth sucker arrived in mid-March whereas humpback chub and bluehead sucker arrivals occurred early- to mid-April. With humpback chub and flannelmouth sucker, movement timing was influenced by body size so that large individuals were more likely to arrive early compared to smaller individuals. With more years of data, this model framework could be used to evaluate ecological questions pertaining to flow cues and movement timing or intensity, relative trends in migrants versus residents and ecological drivers of skipped spawning.

Environmentally triggered shifts in steelhead migration behavior and consequences for survival in the mid-Columbia River

The majority of Columbia River summer-run steelhead encounter high river temperatures (near or > 20°C) during their spawning migration. While some steelhead pass through the mid-Columbia River in a matter of days, others use tributary habitats as temperature refuges for periods that can last months. Using PIT tag detection data from adult return years 2004-2016, we fit 3-component mixture models to differentiate between "fast", "slow", and "overwintering" migration behaviors in five aggregated population groups. Fast fish migrated straight through the reach on average in ~7-9 days while slow fish delayed their migration for weeks to months, and overwintering fish generally took ~150-250 days. We then fit covariate models to examine what factors contributed to the probability of migration delay during summer months (slow or overwintering behaviors), and to explore how migration delay related to mortality. Finally, to account for the impact of extended residence times in the reach for fish that delayed, we compared patterns in estimated average daily rates of mortality between migration behaviors and across population groups. Results suggest that migration delay was primarily triggered by high river temperatures but temperature thresholds for delay were lowest just before the seasonal peak in river temperatures. While all populations groups demonstrated these general patterns, we documented substantial variability in temperature thresholds and length of average delays across population groups. Although migration delay was related to higher reach mortality, it was also related to lower average daily mortality rates due to the proportional increase in reach passage duration being larger than the associated increase in mortality. Lower daily mortality rates suggest that migration delay could help mitigate the impacts of harsh migration conditions, presumably through the use of thermal refuges, despite prolonged exposure to local fisheries. Future studies tracking individual populations from their migration through reproduction could help illuminate the full extent of the tradeoffs between different migration behaviors.