Prediction of regional wildfire activity in the probabilistic Bayesian framework of Firelihood

A Bayesian model for predicting monthly fire frequency in Kenya

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of historical fire and climatic data to estimate the monthly frequency of vegetation fires in Kenya. This work introduces a statistical model that captures the behavior of fire count data, incorporating temporal explanatory factors and emphasizing the predictive significance of maximum temperature and rainfall. By employing Bayesian approaches, the paper integrates literature information, simulation studies, and real-world data to enhance model performance and generate more precise prediction intervals that encompass actual fire counts. To forecast monthly fire occurrences aggregated from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data in Kenya (2000-2018), the study utilizes maximum temperature and rainfall values derived from global GeoTiff (.tif) files sourced from the WorldClim database. The evaluation of the widely used Negative Binomial (NB) model and the proposed Bayesian Negative Binomial (BNB) model reveals the superiority of the latter in accounting for seasonal patterns and long-term trends. The simulation results demonstrate that the BNB model outperforms the NB model in terms of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE) on both training and testing datasets. Furthermore, when applied to real data, the Bayesian Negative Binomial model exhibits better performance on the test dataset, showcasing lower RMSE (163.22 vs. 166.67), lower MASE (1.12 vs. 1.15), and reduced bias (-2.52% vs. -2.62%) compared to the NB model. The Bayesian model also offers prediction intervals that closely align with actual predictions, indicating its flexibility in forecasting the frequency of monthly fires. These findings underscore the importance of leveraging past data to forecast the future behavior of the fire regime, thus providing valuable insights for fire control strategies in Kenya. By integrating climatic factors and employing Bayesian modeling techniques, the study contributes to the understanding and prediction of vegetation fires, ultimately supporting proactive measures in mitigating their impact.

A near real-time web-system for predicting fire spread across the Cerrado biome

Wildfires are aggravating due to climate change. Public policies need territorial intelligence to prevent and promptly fight fires, especially in vast regions like Brazil. To this end, we have developed a fire-spread prediction system for the Brazilian Cerrado, the biome most affected by wildfires in South America. The system automatically uploads hot pixels and satellite data to calculate maps of fuels loads, vegetation moisture, and probability of burning for simulating fire spread thrice a day for the entire Cerrado at 25 ha and for nine conservation units at 0.04 ha spatial resolution. In both versions, the model attains 65-89% of spatial match. Model results together with ancillary data, e.g., historical burned areas and annual CO₂ emissions from fires, are available on an interactive web-platform that serves as a tool for fire prevention and fight, particularly in the selected conservation units where the platform is being used for daily operations.

Wildfire prediction using zero-inflated negative binomial mixed models: Application to Spain

Wildfires have changed in recent decades. The catastrophic wildfires make it necessary to have accurate predictive models on a country scale to organize firefighting resources. In Mediterranean countries, the number of wildfires is quite high but they are mainly concentrated around summer months. Because of seasonality, there are territories where the number of fires is zero in some months and is overdispersed in others. Zero-inflated negative binomial mixed models are adapted to this type of data because they can describe patterns that explain both number of fires and their non-occurrence and also provide useful prediction tools. In addition to model-based predictions, a parametric bootstrap method is applied for estimating mean squared errors and constructing prediction intervals. The statistical methodology and developed software are applied to model and to predict number of wildfires in Spain between 2002 and 2015 by provinces and months.

Mathematical Simulation of Forest Fuel Pyrolysis and Crown Forest Fire Impact for Forest Fire Danger and Risk Assessment

In order to predict and assess the danger from crown forest fires, it is necessary to study the thermal degradation of different forest fuels in a high-temperature environment. In this paper, the main characteristics of pyrolysis accompanied by moisture evaporation in a foliage sample of angiosperms (birch) were investigated within conditions typical for a crown forest fire. The heat and mass transfer in the forest fuel element is described by the system of non-stationary non-linear heat conduction equations with corresponding initial and boundary conditions. The considered problem is solved within the framework of the three-dimensional statement by the finite difference method. The locally one-dimensional method was used to solve three-dimensional equations for heat conduction. The simple iteration method was applied to solve nonlinear effects caused by the forest fuel pyrolysis and moisture evaporation. The fourth kind of boundary conditions are applicable at the interface between the sub-areas. Software implementation of the mathematical model is performed in the high-level programming language Delphi in the RAD Studio software. The characteristic changes in the sample temperature field and the phase composition under high-temperature exposure from a forest fire are presented. The induction period of the thermal decomposition of dry organic matter in the sample was determined. Recommendations are made about key features of accounting for the pyrolysis and evaporation processes when predicting forest fire danger. The research results can be used in the development and improvement of systems for predicting forest fire danger and environmental consequences of the forest fires.