Analyzing large-scale conservation interventions with Bayesian hierarchical models: a case study of supplementing threatened Pacific salmon

Salmon hatchery strays can demographically boost wild populations at the cost of diversity: quantitative genetic modelling of Alaska pink salmon

Hatcheries are vital to many salmon fisheries, with inherent risks and rewards. While hatcheries can increase the returns of adult fish, the demographic and evolutionary consequences for natural populations interacting with hatchery fish on spawning grounds remain unclear. This study examined the impacts of stray hatchery-origin pink salmon on natural population productivity and resilience. We explored temporal assortative mating dynamics using a quantitative genetic model that assumed the only difference between hatchery- and natural-origin adults was their return timing to natural spawning grounds. This model was parameterized with empirical data from an intensive multi-generational study of hatchery-wild interactions in the world's largest pink salmon fisheries enhancement program located in Prince William Sound, Alaska. Across scenarios of increasing hatchery fish presence on spawning grounds, our findings underscore a trade-off between demographic enhancement and preservation of natural population diversity. While enhancement bolstered natural population sizes towards local carrying capacities, hatchery introgression reduced variation in adult return timing by up to 20%. Results indicated that hatchery-origin alleles can rapidly assimilate into natural populations, despite the reduced fitness of hatchery fish attributable to phenotypic mismatches. These findings elucidate the potential for long-term demographic and evolutionary consequences arising from specific hatchery-wild interactions, emphasizing the need for management strategies that balance demographic enhancement with the conservation of natural diversity.

Return(s) on investment: Restoration spending in the Columbia River Basin and increased abundance of salmon and steelhead

The decline in salmon and steelhead populations in the Columbia River Basin has been well documented, as have the decades-long, $9 billion restoration spending efforts by federal and state agencies. These efforts are mainly tied to Endangered Species Act (ESA) mandates for recovery of wild, naturally-spawning threatened or endangered fish species. The impact of these efforts remains poorly understood; many observers, including the federal courts, have long been concerned by the lack of evidence of recovery. Most studies evaluating restoration efforts have examined individual projects for specific species, reaches, or life stages, which limits the ability to make broad inferences at the basin level. There is a need to ask: is there evidence of an overall increase in wild fish abundance associated with the totality of these recovery efforts? To that end, the current study estimates fixed-effects panel regression models of adult returns of four species. Results indicate that restoration spending combined with hatchery production are associated with substantial increases in returning adult fish. Evidence of benefits to wild fish alone, however, require indirect approaches given the commingling of restoration spending with spending on hatchery releases, the impacts of spending on hatchery fish survival, and the density dependence effects of hatchery releases. To accomplish this, the models' predicted adult returns (both hatchery and wild fish) attributed to both spending and hatchery releases are compared to independent estimates of returning hatchery fish based on hatchery survival estimates (smolt-to-adult ratios). The comparison finds the model-predicted levels of adult returns due to spending and hatchery releases do not exceed the survival-rate based estimates for hatcheries alone, so that we are unable to reject the hypothesis of no benefits to wild fish from the restoration spending.

Open removal models with temporary emigration and population dynamics to inform invasive animal management

Removal sampling data are the primary source of monitoring information for many populations (e.g., invasive species, fisheries). Population dynamics, temporary emigration, and imperfect detection are common sources of variation in monitoring data and are key parameters for informing management. We developed two open robust-design removal models for simultaneously modeling population dynamics, temporary emigration, and imperfect detection: a random walk linear trend model (estimable without ancillary information), and a 2-age class informed population model (InfoPM, closely related to integrated population models) that incorporated prior information for age-structured vital rates and relative juvenile availability. We applied both models to multiyear, removal trapping time-series of a large invasive lizard (Argentine black and white tegu, Salvator merianae) in three management areas of South Florida to evaluate the effectiveness of management programs. Although estimates of the two models were similar, the InfoPMs generally returned more precise estimates, partitioned dynamics into births, deaths, net migration, and provided a decision support tool to predict population dynamics under different effort scenarios while accounting for uncertainty. Trends in tegu superpopulation abundance estimates were increasing in two management areas despite generally high removal rates. However, tegu abundance appeared to decline in the Core management area, where trapping density was the highest and immigration the lowest. Finally, comparing abundance predictions of no-removal scenarios to those estimated in each management area suggested significant population reductions due to management. These results suggest that local tegu population control via systematic trapping may be feasible with high enough trap density and limited immigration; and highlights the value of these trapping programs. We provided the first estimates of tegu abundance, capture probabilities, and population dynamics, which is critical for effective management. Furthermore, our models are applicable to a wide range of monitoring programs (e.g., carcass recovery or removal point-counts).

A Bayesian nested patch occupancy model to estimate steelhead movement and abundance

Anthropogenic impacts on riverine systems have, in part, led to management concerns regarding the population status of species using these systems. In an effort to assess the efficacy of restoration actions, and in order to improve monitoring of species of concern, managers have turned to PIT (passive integrated transponder) tag studies with in-stream detectors to monitor movements of tagged individuals throughout river networks. However, quantifying movements in a river network using PIT tag data with incomplete coverage and imperfect detections presents a challenge. We propose a flexible Bayesian analytic framework that models the imperfectly detected movements of tagged individuals in a nested PIT tag array river network. This model structure provides probabilistic estimates of up-stream migration routes for each tagged individual based on a set of underlying nested state variables. These movement estimates can be converted into abundance estimates when an estimate of abundance is available for a location within the river network. We apply the model framework to data from steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in the Upper Columbia River basin and evaluate model performance (precision/variance of simulated population sizes) as a function of population tagging rates and PIT tag array detection probability densities within the river system using a simulation framework. This simulation framework provides both model validation (precision) and the ability to evaluate expected performance improvements (variance) due to changes in tagging rates or PIT receiver array configuration. We also investigate the impact of different network configurations on model estimates. Results from such investigations can help inform decisions regarding future monitoring and management.

Past, present and future contributions of evolutionary biology to wildlife forensics, management and conservation

Successfully implementing fundamental concepts into concrete applications is challenging in any given field. It requires communication, collaboration and shared will between researchers and practitioners. We argue that evolutionary biology, through research work linked to conservation, management and forensics, had a significant impact on wildlife agencies and department practices, where new frameworks and applications have been implemented over the last decades. The Quebec government's Wildlife Department (MFFP: Ministère des Forêts, de la Faune et des Parcs) has been proactive in reducing the “research–implementation” gap, thanks to prolific collaborations with many academic researchers. Among these associations, our department's outstanding partnership with Dr. Louis Bernatchez yielded significant contributions to harvest management, stocking programmes, definition of conservation units, recovery of threatened species, management of invasive species and forensic applications. We discuss key evolutionary biology concepts and resulting concrete examples of their successful implementation that derives directly or indirectly from this successful partnership. While old and new threats to wildlife are bringing new challenges, we expect recent developments in eDNA and genomics to provide innovative solutions as long as the research–implementation bridge remains open.

Increased natural reproduction and genetic diversity one generation after cessation of a steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) conservation hatchery program

Spatial and temporal fluctuations in productivity and abundance confound assessments of captive propagation programs aimed at recovery of Threatened and Endangered populations. We conducted a 17 year before-after-control-impact experiment to determine the effects of a captive rearing program for anadromous steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) on a key indicator of natural spawner abundance (naturally produced nests or 'redds'). The supplemented population exhibited a significant (2.6-fold) increase in redd abundance in the generation following supplementation. Four non-supplemented (control) populations monitored over the same 17 year period exhibited stable or decreasing trends in redd abundance. Expected heterozygosity in the supplemented population increased significantly. Allelic richness increased, but to a lesser (non-significant) degree. Estimates of the effective number of breeders increased from a harmonic mean of 24.4 in the generation before supplementation to 38.9 after supplementation. Several non-conventional aspects of the captive rearing program may have contributed to the positive response in the natural population.

Broodstock History Strongly Influences Natural Spawning Success in Hatchery Steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss)

We used genetic parentage analysis of 6200 potential parents and 5497 juvenile offspring to evaluate the relative reproductive success of hatchery and natural steelhead (Onchorhynchus mykiss) when spawning in the wild between 2008 and 2011 in the Wenatchee River, Washington. Hatchery fish originating from two prior generation hatchery parents had <20% of the reproductive success of natural origin spawners. In contrast, hatchery females originating from a cross between two natural origin parents of the prior generation had equivalent or better reproductive success than natural origin females. Males originating from such a cross had reproductive success of 26–93% that of natural males. The reproductive success of hatchery females and males from crosses consisting of one natural origin fish and one hatchery origin fish was 24–54% that of natural fish. The strong influence of hatchery broodstock origin on reproductive success confirms similar results from a previous study of a different population of the same species and suggests a genetic basis for the low reproductive success of hatchery steelhead, although environmental factors cannot be entirely ruled out. In addition to broodstock origin, fish size, return time, age, and spawning location were significant predictors of reproductive success. Our results indicate that incorporating natural fish into hatchery broodstock is clearly beneficial for improving subsequent natural spawning success, even in a population that has a decades-long history of hatchery releases, as is the case in the Wenatchee River.

Assessing spatial covariance among time series of abundance

For species of conservation concern, an essential part of the recovery planning process is identifying discrete population units and their location with respect to one another. A common feature among geographically proximate populations is that the number of organisms tends to covary through time as a consequence of similar responses to exogenous influences. In turn, high covariation among populations can threaten the persistence of the larger metapopulation. Historically, explorations of the covariance in population size of species with many (>10) time series have been computationally difficult. Here, we illustrate how dynamic factor analysis (DFA) can be used to characterize diversity among time series of population abundances and the degree to which all populations can be represented by a few common signals. Our application focuses on anadromous Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), a species listed under the US Endangered Species Act, that is impacted by a variety of natural and anthropogenic factors. Specifically, we fit DFA models to 24 time series of population abundance and used model selection to identify the minimum number of latent variables that explained the most temporal variation after accounting for the effects of environmental covariates. We found support for grouping the time series according to 5 common latent variables. The top model included two covariates: the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in spring and summer. The assignment of populations to the latent variables matched the currently established population structure at a broad spatial scale. At a finer scale, there was more population grouping complexity. Some relatively distant populations were grouped together, and some relatively close populations – considered to be more aligned with each other – were more associated with populations further away. These coarse‐ and fine‐grained examinations of spatial structure are important because they reveal different structural patterns not evident in other analyses.

Effectiveness of managed gene flow in reducing genetic divergence associated with captive breeding

Captive breeding has the potential to rebuild depressed populations. However, associated genetic changes may decrease restoration success and negatively affect the adaptive potential of the entire population. Thus, approaches that minimize genetic risks should be tested in a comparative framework over multiple generations. Genetic diversity in two captive-reared lines of a species of conservation interest, Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), was surveyed across three generations using genome-wide approaches. Genetic divergence from the source population was minimal in an integrated line, which implemented managed gene flow by using only naturally-born adults as captive broodstock, but significant in a segregated line, which bred only captive-origin individuals. Estimates of effective number of breeders revealed that the rapid divergence observed in the latter was largely attributable to genetic drift. Three independent tests for signatures of adaptive divergence also identified temporal change within the segregated line, possibly indicating domestication selection. The results empirically demonstrate that using managed gene flow for propagating a captive-reared population reduces genetic divergence over the short term compared to one that relies solely on captive-origin parents. These findings complement existing studies of captive breeding, which typically focus on a single management strategy and examine the fitness of one or two generations.