Spatially explicit modeling and prediction of shrub cover increase near Umiujaq, Nunavik

Rapid Ecosystem Change at the Southern Limit of the Canadian Arctic, Torngat Mountains National Park

Northern protected areas guard against habitat and species loss but are themselves highly vulnerable to environmental change due to their fixed spatial boundaries. In the low Arctic, Torngat Mountains National Park (TMNP) of Canada, widespread greening has recently occurred alongside warming temperatures and regional declines in caribou. Little is known, however, about how biophysical controls mediate plant responses to climate warming, and available observational data are limited in temporal and spatial scope. In this study, we investigated the drivers of land cover change for the 9700 km2 extent of the park using satellite remote sensing and geostatistical modelling. Random forest classification was used to hindcast and simulate land cover change for four different land cover types from 1985 to 2019 with topographic and surface reflectance imagery (Landsat archive). The resulting land cover maps, in addition to topographic and biotic variables, were then used to predict where future shrub expansion is likely to occur using a binomial regression framework. Land cover hindcasts showed a 235% increase in shrub and a 105% increase in wet vegetation cover from 1985/89 to 2015/19. Shrub cover was highly persistent and displaced wet vegetation in southern, low-elevation areas, whereas wet vegetation expanded to formerly dry, mid-elevations. The predictive model identified both biotic (initial cover class, number of surrounding shrub neighbors), and topographic variables (elevation, latitude, and distance to the coast) as strong predictors of future shrub expansion. A further 51% increase in shrub cover is expected by 2039/43 relative to 2014 reference data. Establishing long-term monitoring plots within TMNP in areas where rapid vegetation change is predicted to occur will help to validate remote sensing observations and will improve our understanding of the consequences of change for biotic and abiotic components of the tundra ecosystem, including important cultural keystone species.

Early Evidence of Shifts in Alpine Summit Vegetation: A Case Study From Kashmir Himalaya

Under the contemporary climate change, the Himalaya is reported to be warming at a much higher rate than the global average. However, little is known about the alpine vegetation responses to recent climate change in the rapidly warming Himalaya. Here we studied vegetation dynamics on alpine summits in Kashmir Himalaya in relation to in situ measured microclimate. The summits, representing an elevation gradient from treeline to nival zone (3530-3740 m), were first surveyed in 2014 and then re-surveyed in 2018. The initial survey showed that the species richness, vegetation cover and soil temperature decreased with increasing elevation. Species richness and soil temperature differed significantly among slopes, with east and south slopes showing higher values than north and west slopes. The re-survey showed that species richness increased on the lower three summits but decreased on the highest summit (nival zone) and also revealed a substantial increase in the cover of dominant shrubs, graminoids, and forbs. The nestedness-resultant dissimilarity, rather than species turnover, contributed more to the magnitude of β-diversity among the summits. High temporal species turnover was found on south and east aspects, while high nestedness was recorded along north and west aspects. Thermophilization was more pronounced on the lower two summits and along the northern aspects. Our study provides crucial scientific data on climate change impacts on the alpine vegetation of Kashmir Himalaya. This information will fill global knowledge gaps from the developing world.