Fog and live fuel moisture in coastal California shrublands

Quantifying contributions of natural variability and anthropogenic forcings on increased fire weather risk over the western United States

Previous studies have identified a recent increase in wildfire activity in the western United States (WUS). However, the extent to which this trend is due to weather pattern changes dominated by natural variability versus anthropogenic warming has been unclear. Using an ensemble constructed flow analogue approach, we have employed observations to estimate vapor pressure deficit (VPD), the leading meteorological variable that controls wildfires, associated with different atmospheric circulation patterns. Our results show that for the period 1979 to 2020, variation in the atmospheric circulation explains, on average, only 32% of the observed VPD trend of 0.48 ± 0.25 hPa/decade (95% CI) over the WUS during the warm season (May to September). The remaining 68% of the upward VPD trend is likely due to anthropogenic warming. The ensemble simulations of climate models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project suggest that anthropogenic forcing explains an even larger fraction of the observed VPD trend (88%) for the same period and region. These models and observational estimates likely provide a lower and an upper bound on the true impact of anthropogenic warming on the VPD trend over the WUS. During August 2020, when the August Complex "Gigafire" occurred in the WUS, anthropogenic warming likely explains 50% of the unprecedented high VPD anomalies.

Spatial Patterns and Trends of Summertime Low Cloudiness for the Pacific Northwest, 1996-2017

Summertime low clouds are common in the Pacific Northwest (PNW), but spatiotemporal patterns have not been characterized. We show the first maps of low cloudiness for the western PNW and North Pacific Ocean using a 22-year satellite-derived record of monthly mean low cloudiness frequency for May through September and supplemented by airport cloud base height observations. Domain-wide cloudiness peaks in midsummer and is strongest over the Pacific. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis identified four distinct PNW spatiotemporal modes: oceanic, terrestrial highlands, coastal, and northern coastal. There is a statistically significant trend over the 22-year record toward reduced low cloudiness in the terrestrial highlands mode, with strongest declines in May and June; however, this decline is not matched in the corresponding airport records. The coastal mode is partly constrained from moving inland by topographic relief and migrates southward in late summer, retaining higher late-season low cloud frequency than the other areas.

Remotely Sensed Water Limitation in Vegetation: Insights from an Experiment with Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs)

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) equipped with multispectral sensors present an opportunity to monitor vegetation with on-demand high spatial and temporal resolution. In this study we use multispectral imagery from quadcopter UAVs to monitor the progression of a water manipulation experiment on a common shrub, Baccharis pilularis (coyote brush) at the Blue Oak Ranch Reserve (BORR) ~20 km east of San Jose, California. We recorded multispectral imagery at several altitudes with nearly hourly intervals to explore the relationship between two common spectral indices, NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) and NDRE (normalized difference red edge index), leaf water content and water potential as physiological metrics of plant water status, across a gradient of water deficit. An examination of the spatial and temporal thresholds at which water limitations were most detectable revealed that the best separation between levels of water deficit were at higher resolution (lower flying height), and in the morning (NDVI) and early morning (NDRE). We found that both measures were able to identify moisture deficit across treatments; however, NDVI was better able to distinguish between treatments than NDRE and was more positively correlated with field measurements of leaf water content. Finally, we explored how relationships between spectral indices and water status changed when the imagery was scaled to courser resolutions provided by satellite-based imagery (PlanetScope).We found that PlanetScope data was able to capture the overall trend in treatments but unable to capture subtle changes in water content. These kinds of experiments that evaluate the relationship between direct field measurements and UAV camera sensitivity are needed to enable translation of field-based physiology measurements to landscape or regional scales.