Fire and development influences on sagebrush community plant groups across a climate gradient in northern Nevada

Antecedent climatic conditions spanning several years influence multiple land-surface phenology events in semi-arid environments

Ecological processes are complex, often exhibiting non-linear, interactive, or hierarchical relationships. Furthermore, models identifying drivers of phenology are constrained by uncertainty regarding predictors, interactions across scales, and legacy impacts of prior climate conditions. Nonetheless, measuring and modeling ecosystem processes such as phenology remains critical for management of ecological systems and the social systems they support. We used random forest models to assess which combination of climate, location, edaphic, vegetation composition, and disturbance variables best predict several phenological responses in three dominant land cover types in the U.S. Northwestern Great Plains (NWP). We derived phenological measures from the 25-year series of AVHRR satellite data and characterized climatic predictors (i.e., multiple moisture and/or temperature based variables) over seasonal and annual timeframes within the current year and up to 4 years prior. We found that antecedent conditions, from seasons to years before the current, were strongly associated with phenological measures, apparently mediating the responses of communities to current-year conditions. For example, at least one measure of antecedent-moisture availability [precipitation or vapor pressure deficit (VPD)] over multiple years was a key predictor of all productivity measures. Variables including longer-term lags or prior year sums, such as multi-year-cumulative moisture conditions of maximum VPD, were top predictors for start of season. Productivity measures were also associated with contextual variables such as soil characteristics and vegetation composition. Phenology is a key process that profoundly affects organism-environment relationships, spatio-temporal patterns in ecosystem structure and function, and other ecosystem dynamics. Phenology, however, is complex, and is mediated by lagged effects, interactions, and a diversity of potential drivers; nonetheless, the incorporation of antecedent conditions and contextual variables can improve models of phenology.

Multi-Species Inference of Exotic Annual and Native Perennial Grasses in Rangelands of the Western United States Using Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 Data

The invasion of exotic annual grass (EAG), e.g., cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) and medusahead (Taeniatherum caput-medusae), into rangeland ecosystems of the western United States is a broad-scale problem that affects wildlife habitats, increases wildfire frequency, and adds to land management costs. However, identifying individual species of EAG abundance from remote sensing, particularly at early stages of invasion or growth, can be problematic because of overlapping controls and similar phenological characteristics among native and other exotic vegetation. Subsequently, refining and developing tools capable of quantifying the abundance and phenology of annual and perennial grass species would be beneficial to help inform conservation and management efforts at local to regional scales. Here, we deploy an enhanced version of the U.S. Geological Survey Rangeland Exotic Plant Monitoring System to develop timely and accurate maps of annual (2016–2020) and intra-annual (May 2021 and July 2021) abundances of exotic annual and perennial grass species throughout the rangelands of the western United States. This monitoring system leverages field observations and remote-sensing data with artificial intelligence/machine learning to rapidly produce annual and early season estimates of species abundances at a 30-m spatial resolution. We introduce a fully automated and multi-task deep-learning framework to simultaneously predict and generate weekly, near-seamless composites of Harmonized Landsat Sentinel-2 spectral data. These data, along with auxiliary datasets and time series metrics, are incorporated into an ensemble of independent XGBoost models. This study demonstrates that inclusion of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and Normalized Difference Wetness Index time-series data generated from our deep-learning framework enables near real-time and accurate mapping of EAG (Median Absolute Error (MdAE): 3.22, 2.72, and 0.02; and correlation coefficient (r): 0.82, 0.81, and 0.73; respectively for EAG, cheatgrass, and medusahead) and native perennial grass abundance (MdAE: 2.51, r:0.72 for Sandberg bluegrass (Poa secunda)). Our approach and the resulting data provide insights into rangeland grass dynamics, which will be useful for applications, such as fire and drought monitoring, habitat suitability mapping, as well as land-cover and land-change modelling. Spatially explicit, timely, and accurate species-specific abundance datasets provide invaluable information to land managers.

Post-Fire Vegetation Response in a Repeatedly Burned Low-Elevation Sagebrush Steppe Protected Area Provides Insights About Resilience and Invasion Resistance

Sagebrush steppe ecosystems are threatened by human land-use legacies, biological invasions, and altered fire and climate dynamics. Steppe protected areas are therefore of heightened conservation importance but are few and vulnerable to the same impacts broadly affecting sagebrush steppe. To address this problem, sagebrush steppe conservation science is increasingly emphasizing a focus on resilience to fire and resistance to non-native annual grass invasion as a decision framework. It is well-established that the positive feedback loop between fire and annual grass invasion is the driving process of most contemporary steppe degradation. We use a newly developed ordinal zero-augmented beta regression model fit to large-sample vegetation monitoring data from John Day Fossil Beds National Monument, USA, spanning 7 years to evaluate fire responses of two native perennial foundation bunchgrasses and two non-native invasive annual grasses in a repeatedly burned, historically grazed, and inherently low-resilient protected area. We structured our model hierarchically to support inferences about variation among ecological site types and over time after also accounting for growing-season water deficit, fine-scale topographic variation, and burn severity. We use a state-and-transition conceptual diagram and abundances of plants listed in ecological site reference conditions to formalize our hypothesis of fire-accelerated transition to ecologically novel annual grassland. Notably, big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) and other woody species were entirely removed by fire. The two perennial grasses, bluebunch wheatgrass (Pseudoroegneria spicata) and Thurber's needlegrass (Achnatherum thurberianum) exhibited fire resiliency, with no apparent trend after fire. The two annual grasses, cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) and medusahead (Taeniatherum caput-medusae), increased in response to burn severity, most notably medusahead. Surprisingly, we found no variation in grass cover among ecological sites, suggesting fire-driven homogenization as shrubs were removed and annual grasses became dominant. We found contrasting responses among all four grass species along gradients of topography and water deficit, informative to protected-area conservation strategies. The fine-grained influence of topography was particularly important to variation in cover among species and provides a foothold for conservation in low-resilient, aridic steppe. Broadly, our study demonstrates how to operationalize resilience and resistance concepts for protected areas by integrating empirical data with conceptual and statistical models.