Assessing freedom from chronic wasting disease in semi-domesticated reindeer in Norway and Sweden

Establishing freedom from disease is a key component of surveillance and may have direct consequences for trade and economy. Transboundary populations pose challenges in terms of variable legislation, efforts, and data availability between countries, often limiting surveillance efficiency. Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a contagious prion disease of cervids. The long incubation period and slow initial epidemic growth make it notoriously difficult to detect CWD in the early phase of an epidemic. The recent emergence of CWD in wild reindeer in Norway poses a threat to approximately 250,000 semi-domesticated reindeer in Norway and 250,000 in Sweden, including transboundary populations. Here, we provide a first analysis of surveillance data (2016-2022) from all reindeer districts in Norway and Sweden to determine the probability of freedom from CWD infection. During the six years, 6017 semi-domesticated reindeer were tested in Sweden and 51,974 in Norway. Most samples came from healthy slaughtered animals (low risk). Reindeer use large and remote areas and (high risk) samples from fallen stock and animals with clinical signs were difficult to obtain. A scenario tree model was run for seven different set of values for the input parameters (design prevalence within and between districts, probability of introduction, and relative risks) to determine the effect on surveillance sensitivity. At the national level, the mean probability of disease freedom was 59.0 % in Sweden and 87.0 % in Norway by 2021. The most marked effect on sensitivity was varying the design prevalence both within and between districts. Uncertainty about relative risk ratios affected sensitivity for Sweden more than for Norway, due to the higher proportion of animals in the high-risk group in the former (13.8 % vs. 2.1 %, respectively). A probability of disease freedom of 90 % or higher was reached in 8.2 % of the 49 districts in Sweden and 43.5 % of the 46 districts in Norway for a design prevalence of 0.5 %. The probability of freedom remained below 60 % in 29 districts (59.2 %) in Sweden and 10 districts (21.7 %) in Norway. At the national level, only Norway had a sufficiently large number of samples to reach a probability of more than 95 % of disease freedom within a period of 10 years. Our cross-border assessment forms an important knowledge base for designing future surveillance efforts depending on the spatial pattern of prevalence of CWD and risk of spread.

A methodological framework to characterize the wildlife-livestock interface: The case of wild boar in mainland Spain

BACKGROUND

The representation of wildlife-livestock interface (WLI) at an accurate spatial resolution poses several challenges. Furthermore, there is a lack of published material providing detailed descriptions of geospatial techniques for the purpose of producing visual results that are interpretable and contrastable for epidemiological analysis.

OBJECTIVES

Our aim is to develop a standardized, applicable, and scalable methodological framework for describing and characterizing the WLI across a large spatial extent. Subsequently, we aim to employ this framework to depict specific WLI based on different epidemiological scenarios determined by the abundance of wild boar (Sus scrofa) and domestic ungulates as an illustrative case, specifically focusing on mainland Spain.

METHODS

To establish a methodological framework, we merged data from both wild and domestic sources into a hexagonal grid. We utilized data on wild boar hunting and the locations of pig, cattle, sheep, and goat farms in mainland Spain. New variables were derived from this combined dataset to illustrate the overlapping abundance between wild boar and domestic species. Finally, a cluster analysis of the generated variables was carried out, with the aim of distinguishing and characterizing various scenarios of the wild boar-domestic ungulate interface in mainland Spain.

RESULTS

The hexagonal grid proved appropriate to represent and evaluate the WLI at fine spatial resolution over such broad extent. Despite the inability to ascribe a dominant livestock type and production system to a specific region, we were able to identify fifteen main areas of interest in terms of overlap. As for extensive livestock, normally at the highest risk of interaction with wild boar, the primary regions in Spain were those with dehesa agroecosystem and the Atlantic areas. Certain scenarios were particularly relevant in terms of risk for interaction and subsequent transmission of disease, namely, the case of extensive pig production in south western Spain (dehesa agroecosystem), which is especially concerned about the potential introduction of African Swine fever (ASF) in the Country. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: We provide a basis for visualizing and understanding of different WLI scenarios, which is extensible to other regions and interfaces, and automatable where precise source of data from wildlife and livestock are available. This spatial statistics framework enables the utilization of high-resolution data, ensuring consistency on uniform grids. This aligns with the needs of high-resolution disease dissemination models based on wildlife behaviour. Such aspects are crucial for developing risk assessment and improving strategies for the prevention, control, and eradication of shared priority emerging diseases at national and international levels, such as ASF.

Ecology and Chronic Wasting Disease Epidemiology Shape Prion Protein Gene Variation in Rocky Mountain Elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni)

As chronic wasting disease (CWD) continues to spread across North America, the relationship between CWD and host genetics has become of interest. In Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni), one or two copies of a leucine allele at codon 132 of the prion protein gene (132L*) has been shown to prolong the incubation period of CWD. Our study examined the relationship between CWD epidemiology and codon 132 evolution in elk from Wyoming, USA, from 2011 to 2018. Using PCR and Sanger sequencing, we genotyped 997 elk and assessed the relationship between genotype and CWD prevalence estimated from surveillance data. Using logistic regression, we showed that each 1% increase in CWD prevalence is associated with a 9.6% increase in the odds that an elk would have at least one copy of leucine at codon 132. In some regions, however, 132L* variants were found in the absence of CWD, indicating that evolutionary and epidemiologic patterns can be heterogeneous across space and time. We also provide evidence that naturally occurring CWD is not rare in 132L* elk, which merits the study of shedding kinetics in 132L* elk and the influence of genotype on CWD strain diversity. The management implications of cervid adaptations to CWD are difficult to predict. Studies that investigate the degree to which evolutionary outcomes are shaped by host spatial structure can provide useful epidemiologic insight, which can in turn aid management by informing scale and extent of mitigation actions.