Disentangling the effects of date, individual, and territory quality on the seasonal decline in fitness

Brood success of sex-role-reversed pheasant-tailed jacanas: the effects of social polyandry, seasonality, and male mating order

Multiple mating by avian females may increase hatching and overall brood success; however, reproductive effort and parental investment are costly, and females may be gradually depleted, with lowered outputs over time. Thus, males in social polyandry systems may differ greatly in their reproductive gains. In the present study, we investigated the reproductive outputs of social polyandrous and sex-role-reversed pheasant-tailed jacanas, Hydrophasianus chirurgus, to assess the effects of polyandry, seasonality, and male mating order on breeding success. Female jacanas produced multiple clutches, either by leaving two or more clutches with an individual male (22%), or by mating with two or more males (78%). The polyandrous females laid both the first and second clutches earlier and showed a breeding period more than twice as long as that of monandrous females. Both polyandry and seasonality affected the fate of a clutch, where clutches from polyandrous females and the early season had higher hatching and brood success rates, but the number of polyandrous females declined over the season. Polyandrous females not only laid more clutches and eggs, and gained more hatchlings and fledglings, but also achieved higher per-clutch outputs and hatching rates than monandrous females. In polyandry groups, males gained higher total hatchlings and fledglings, although not total clutches or eggs, than males in monandry or bi-andry groups. Moreover, males in polyandry groups achieved higher hatchlings and fledglings per clutch and higher hatching and brood success rates. In polyandry groups, the first-mating males obtained more clutches, eggs, and hatchlings; however, they did not have higher success rates, nor total fledglings and per-clutch outputs, than males who mated later. Overall, the results indicate a selective advantage of polyandry for the jacanas studied, particularly in the early breeding season. This advantage, however, differs both between the sexes and intra-sexually, suggesting strong connections with certain ecological/environmental conditions in addition to the jacanas' own quality.

Social competition as a driver of phenotype-environment correlations: implications for ecology and evolution

While it is universally recognised that environmental factors can cause phenotypic trait variation via phenotypic plasticity, the extent to which causal processes operate in the reverse direction has received less consideration. In fact individuals are often active agents in determining the environments, and hence the selective regimes, they experience. There are several important mechanisms by which this can occur, including habitat selection and niche construction, that are expected to result in phenotype–environment correlations (i.e. non‐random assortment of phenotypes across heterogeneous environments). Here we highlight an additional mechanism – intraspecific competition for preferred environments – that may be widespread, and has implications for phenotypic evolution that are currently underappreciated. Under this mechanism, variation among individuals in traits determining their competitive ability leads to phenotype–environment correlation; more competitive phenotypes are able to acquire better patches. Based on a concise review of the empirical evidence we argue that competition‐induced phenotype–environment correlations are likely to be common in natural populations before highlighting the major implications of this for studies of natural selection and microevolution. We focus particularly on two central issues. First, competition‐induced phenotype–environment correlation leads to the expectation that positive feedback loops will amplify phenotypic and fitness variation among competing individuals. As a result of being able to acquire a better environment, winners gain more resources and even better phenotypes – at the expense of losers. The distinction between individual quality and environmental quality that is commonly made by researchers in evolutionary ecology thus becomes untenable. Second, if differences among individuals in competitive ability are underpinned by heritable traits, competition results in both genotype–environment correlations and an expectation of indirect genetic effects (IGEs) on resource‐dependent life‐history traits. Theory tells us that these IGEs will act as (partial) constraints, reducing the amount of genetic variance available to facilitate evolutionary adaptation. Failure to recognise this will lead to systematic overestimation of the adaptive potential of populations. To understand the importance of these issues for ecological and evolutionary processes in natural populations we therefore need to identify and quantify competition‐induced phenotype–environment correlations in our study systems. We conclude that both fundamental and applied research will benefit from an improved understanding of when and how social competition causes non‐random distribution of phenotypes, and genotypes, across heterogeneous environments.

Fluctuating optimum and temporally variable selection on breeding date in birds and mammals

Temporal variation in natural selection is predicted to strongly impact the evolution and demography of natural populations, with consequences for the rate of adaptation, evolution of plasticity, and extinction risk. Most of the theory underlying these predictions assumes a moving optimum phenotype, with predictions expressed in terms of the temporal variance and autocorrelation of this optimum. However, empirical studies seldom estimate patterns of fluctuations of an optimum phenotype, precluding further progress in connecting theory with observations. To bridge this gap, we assess the evidence for temporal variation in selection on breeding date by modeling a fitness function with a fluctuating optimum, across 39 populations of 21 wild animals, one of the largest compilations of long-term datasets with individual measurements of trait and fitness components. We find compelling evidence for fluctuations in the fitness function, causing temporal variation in the magnitude, but not the direction of selection. However, fluctuations of the optimum phenotype need not directly translate into variation in selection gradients, because their impact can be buffered by partial tracking of the optimum by the mean phenotype. Analyzing individuals that reproduce in consecutive years, we find that plastic changes track movements of the optimum phenotype across years, especially in bird species, reducing temporal variation in directional selection. This suggests that phenological plasticity has evolved to cope with fluctuations in the optimum, despite their currently modest contribution to variation in selection.

Phenotypic consequences of maternally selected nests: a cross-fostering experiment in a desert lizard

Despite the importance of maternally selected nests in shaping offspring phenotypes, our understanding of how the nest environment affects embryonic development and offspring traits of most non-avian reptiles is rather limited largely due to the logistical difficulty in locating their nests. To identify the relative contributions of environmental (temporal [seasonal] and spatial [nest-site]) and intrinsic (clutch) factors on embryonic development and offspring traits, we conducted a cross-fostering experiment by swapping eggs between maternally-selected nests of the toad-headed agama (Phrynocephalus przewalskii) in the field. We found that nest environment explained a large proportion of variation in incubation duration, hatching success, and offspring size and growth. In contrast, clutch only explained a small proportion of variation in these embryonic and offspring traits. More significantly, compared with spatial effects, seasonal effects explained more phenotypic variation in both embryonic development and offspring traits. Eggs laid early in the nesting season had longer incubation durations and produced smaller hatchlings with higher post-hatching growth rates than did later-laid eggs. Consequently, hatchlings from early-laid eggs reached larger body sizes prior to winter. In addition, we found that female toad-headed agama did not select nests specific to reaction norms of their own offspring because hatchlings from original or translocated nests had similar phenotypic traits. Overall, our study demonstrates the importance of seasonal variation in nest environments in determining embryonic development and offspring phenotypes, which has not been widely appreciated at least in non-avian reptiles.

The relative contribution of individual quality and changing climate as drivers of lifetime reproductive success in a short-lived avian species

Animal populations are influenced strongly by fluctuations in weather conditions, but long-term fitness costs are rarely explored, especially in short-lived avian species. We evaluated the relative contributions of individual characteristics and environmental conditions to lifetime reproductive success (LRS) of female tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) from two populations breeding in contrasting environments and geographies, Saskatchewan and British Columbia, Canada. Female swallows achieved higher LRS by breeding early in the season and producing more fledglings. Other measures of female quality had virtually no influence on LRS. Genetic factors did not predict LRS, as there was no correlation between life-history components for sister pairs nor between mothers and their daughters. Instead, climate variability-indexed by spring pond density (i.e., abundance of wetland basins holding water) during years when females bred-had strong positive effects on female LRS in more arid Saskatchewan but only weak positive effects of moisture conditions were detected in wetter British Columbia. Overall, several life history trait correlates of LRS were similar between populations, but local environmental factors experienced by individuals while breeding produced large differences in LRS. Consequently, variable and extreme environmental conditions associated with changing climate are predicted to influence individual fitness of distinct populations within a species' range.

Proximate causes and fitness consequences of double brooding in female barn owls

Multiple brooding, reproducing twice or more per year, is an important component of life-history strategies. However, what proximate factors drive the frequency of multiple brooding and its fitness consequences for parents and offspring remains poorly known. Using long-term longitudinal data, we investigated double brooding in a barn owl population in France. We assessed the effects of both extrinsic and intrinsic factors and the consequences of double brooding on fledgling recruitment and female lifetime reproductive success. The occurrence of double brooding in the population, ranging from 0 to 87%, was positively related to the number of rodent prey stored at the nest. Females laying early in the season were more likely to breed twice and the probability of double brooding increased with smaller initial brood size, female age and the storage of wood mice at the nest early in the season. Fledglings from first broods recruited more often (8.2%) than those from single broods (3.8%) or second broods (3.3%), but this was primarily the consequence of laying dates, not brood type per se. Females producing two broods within a year, at least once in their lifetime, had higher lifetime reproductive success and produced more local recruits than females that did not (15.6 ± 8.1 vs. 6.1 ± 3.8 fledglings, 0.96 ± 1.2 vs. 0.24 ± 0.6 recruits). Our results suggests that the fitness benefits of double brooding exceed costs and that within-year variability in double brooding may be related to heterogeneity in individual/territory quality.

Factors influencing plasticity in the arrival-breeding interval in a migratory species reacting to climate change

Climate change is profoundly affecting the phenology of many species. In migratory birds, there is evidence for advances in their arrival time at the breeding ground and their timing of breeding, yet empirical studies examining the interdependence between arrival and breeding time are lacking. Hence, evidence is scarce regarding how breeding time may be adjusted via the arrival-breeding interval to help local populations adapt to local conditions or climate change. We used long-term data from an intensively monitored population of the northern wheatear (Oenanthe oenanthe) to examine the factors related to the length of 734 separate arrival-to-breeding events from 549 individual females. From 1993 to 2017, the mean arrival and egg-laying dates advanced by approximately the same amount (~5-6 days), with considerable between-individual variation in the arrival-breeding interval. The arrival-breeding interval was shorter for: (a) individuals that arrived later in the season compared to early-arriving birds, (b) for experienced females compared to first-year breeders, (c) as spring progressed, and (d) in later years compared to earlier ones. The influence of these factors was much larger for birds arriving earlier in the season compared to later arriving birds, with most effects on variation in the arrival-breeding interval being absent in late-arriving birds. Thus, in this population it appears that the timing of breeding is not constrained by arrival for early- to midarriving birds, but instead is dependent on local conditions after arrival. For late-arriving birds, however, the timing of breeding appears to be influenced by arrival constraints. Hence, impacts of climate change on arrival dates and local conditions are expected to vary for different parts of the population, with potential negative impacts associated with these factors likely to differ for early- versus late-arriving birds.

Quantifying the links between land use and population growth rate in a declining farmland bird

Land use is likely to be a key driver of population dynamics of species inhabiting anthropogenic landscapes, such as farmlands. Understanding the relationships between land use and variation in population growth rates is therefore critical for the management of many farmland species. Using 24 years of data of a declining farmland bird in an integrated population model, we examined how spatiotemporal variation in land use (defined as habitats with "Short" and "Tall" ground vegetation during the breeding season) and habitat-specific demographic parameters relates to variation in population growth taking into account individual movements between habitats. We also evaluated contributions to population growth using transient life table response experiments which gives information on contribution of past variation of parameters and real-time elasticities which suggests future scenarios to change growth rates. LTRE analyses revealed a clear contribution of Short habitats to the annual variation in population growth rate that was mostly due to fledgling recruitment, whereas there was no evidence for a contribution of Tall habitats. Only 18% of the variation in population growth was explained by the modeled local demography, the remaining variation being explained by apparent immigration (i.e., the residual variation). We discuss potential biological and methodological reasons for high contributions of apparent immigration in open populations. In line with LTRE analysis, real-time elasticity analysis revealed that demographic parameters linked to Short habitats had a stronger potential to influence population growth rate than those of Tall habitats. Most particularly, an increase of the proportion of Short sites occupied by Old breeders could have a distinct positive impact on population growth. High-quality Short habitats such as grazed pastures have been declining in southern Sweden. Converting low-quality to high-quality habitats could therefore change the present negative population trend of this, and other species with similar habitat requirements.

Marked reduction in demographic rates and reduced fitness advantage for early breeding is not linked to reduced thermal matching of breeding time

Warmer springs may cause animals to become mistimed if advances of spring timing, including available resources and of timing of breeding occur at different speed. We used thermal sums (cumulative sum of degree days) during spring to describe the thermal progression (timing) of spring and investigate its relationship to breeding phenology and demography of a long-distant migrant bird, the northern wheatear (Oenanthe oenanthe L.). We first compare 20-year trends in spring timing, breeding time, selection for breeding time, and annual demographic rates. We then explicitly test whether annual variation in selection for breeding time and demographic rates associates with the degree of phenological matching between breeding time and thermal progression of spring. Both thermal progression of spring and breeding time of wheatears advanced in time during the study period. But despite breeding on average 7 days earlier with respect to date, wheatears bred about 4 days later with respect to thermal spring progression. Over the same time period, selection for breeding time changed from distinct within-season advantage of breeding early to no or very weak advantage. Furthermore, demographic rates (nest success, fledgling production, recruitment, adult survival) and nestling weight declined markedly by 16%-79%. Those temporal trends suggest that a reduced degree of phenological matching may affect within-season fitness advantage of early breeding and population demographic rates. In contrast, when we investigate links based on annual variation, we find no significant relationship between either demographic rates or fitness advantage of early breeding with annual variation in the degree of phenological matching. Our results show that corresponding temporal trends in phenological matching, selection for breeding time and demographic rates are inconclusive evidence for demographic effects of changed phenological matching. Instead, we suggest that the trends in selection for breeding time and demographic rates are due to a general deterioration of the breeding environment.