A comparison of statistical emulation methodologies for multi-wave calibration of environmental models

Calibrating spatiotemporal models of microbial communities to microscopy data: A review

Spatiotemporal models that account for heterogeneity within microbial communities rely on single-cell data for calibration and validation. Such data, commonly collected via microscopy and flow cytometry, have been made more accessible by recent advances in microfluidics platforms and data processing pipelines. However, validating models against such data poses significant challenges. Validation practices vary widely between modelling studies; systematic and rigorous methods have not been widely adopted. Similar challenges are faced by the (macrobial) ecology community, in which systematic calibration approaches are often employed to improve quantitative predictions from computational models. Here, we review single-cell observation techniques that are being applied to study microbial communities and the calibration strategies that are being employed for accompanying spatiotemporal models. To facilitate future calibration efforts, we have compiled a list of summary statistics relevant for quantifying spatiotemporal patterns in microbial communities. Finally, we highlight some recently developed techniques that hold promise for improved model calibration, including algorithmic guidance of summary statistic selection and machine learning approaches for efficient model simulation.

Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted¹ using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models^2-8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios⁹ and climate models¹⁰, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios^11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

Predicting left ventricular contractile function via Gaussian process emulation in aortic-banded rats

Cardiac contraction is the result of integrated cellular, tissue and organ function. Biophysical in silico cardiac models offer a systematic approach for studying these multi-scale interactions. The computational cost of such models is high, due to their multi-parametric and nonlinear nature. This has so far made it difficult to perform model fitting and prevented global sensitivity analysis (GSA) studies. We propose a machine learning approach based on Gaussian process emulation of model simulations using probabilistic surrogate models, which enables model parameter inference via a Bayesian history matching (HM) technique and GSA on whole-organ mechanics. This framework is applied to model healthy and aortic-banded hypertensive rats, a commonly used animal model of heart failure disease. The obtained probabilistic surrogate models accurately predicted the left ventricular pump function (R² = 0.92 for ejection fraction). The HM technique allowed us to fit both the control and diseased virtual bi-ventricular rat heart models to magnetic resonance imaging and literature data, with model outputs from the constrained parameter space falling within 2 SD of the respective experimental values. The GSA identified Troponin C and cross-bridge kinetics as key parameters in determining both systolic and diastolic ventricular function. This article is part of the theme issue 'Uncertainty quantification in cardiac and cardiovascular modelling and simulation'.