The effects of education on mortality: Evidence using college expansions

Unequal spillover of human capital: longitudinal analysis of mortality among populations by college degree in U.S. counties, 2010-2022

INTRODUCTION

County-level educational attainment is known to affect mortality rates, but little is understood about how these effects differ between populations with and without a bachelor's degree (BA). This study examined the association between county-level human capital and mortality rates of populations with and without a BA in U.S. counties, and how it changed between 2010 and 2022.

METHODS

Assembling 2010-2022 data of 3,122 counties (40,585 county-year observations), this study used fixed-effect negative binomial regression to analyze mortality rates stratified by educational attainment. Mortality data came from the National Center for Health Statistics Multiple Cause of Death files and county-level human capital was measured as percentage of population aged 25 and over with a BA. County-level demographic, economic, and health-related factors were considered in the analysis conducted in 2024.

RESULTS

County-level human capital showed divergent effects. A 1% increase in county BA population corresponded to a 4.5% decrease in all-cause mortality for those with a BA but a 1.2% increase for those without a BA. Over the study period, this disparity moderated, primarily due to a weakening protective effect among BA holders in high-human capital counties. This pattern persists across other causes of death.

CONCLUSIONS

The benefits of living in highly educated areas are not uniformly distributed, potentially exacerbating health inequalities. While county-level human capital remains protective for those with a BA, this advantage has diminished over time, while the adverse effect on those without a BA has stabilized.

Early-Life Economic Conditions and Old-Age Male Mortality: Evidence from Historical County-Level Bank Deposit Data

This paper studies the long-run mortality effects of in-utero and early-life economic conditions. We examine how local economic conditions experienced during the Great Depression, proxied by county-level banking deposits during in-utero and first years of life, influence old-age longevity. We find that a one-standard-deviation rise in per capita bank deposits is associated with an approximately 1.7 month increase in males' longevity at old age. Additional analyses comparing state-level versus county-level economic measures provide insight on the importance of controlling for local-level confounders and exploiting more granular measures when exploring the relationship between early-life conditions and later-life mortality.

Dust to Feed, Dust to Gray: The Effect of in Utero Exposure to the Dust Bowl on Old-Age Longevity

Intensive agriculture and deep plowing caused topsoil erosion and dust storms during the 1930s, affecting agricultural income and land values for years. Given the growing literature on the relevance of in utero and early-life exposures, it is surprising that studies focusing on links between the Dust Bowl and later-life health have produced inconclusive and mixed results. We reevaluate this literature and study the long-term effects of in utero and early-life exposure to topsoil erosion caused by the 1930s Dust Bowl on old-age longevity. Specifically, using Social Security Administration death records linked with the full-count 1940 census, we conduct event studies with difference-in-differences designs to compare the longevity of individuals in high- versus low-topsoil-erosion counties before versus after 1930. We find intent-to-treat reductions in longevity of approximately 0.85 months for those born in high-erosion counties after 1930. We show that these effects are not an artifact of preexisting trends in longevity. Additional analyses suggest that the effects are more pronounced among children raised in farm households, females, and those whose mothers had lower education. We also provide suggestive evidence that reductions in adulthood income are a likely mechanism for the effects we document.