Integrating Resilience Assessment in Environmental Impact Assessment

Setting the Limit for Cumulative Effects: a Regional Safe Operating Space for Maintaining Ecological Resilience

Clear limits for cumulative effects are needed to safeguard the ecological structures, functions, and processes on which society depends in a rapidly changing world. However, ecological thresholds are difficult to discern and even more challenging to integrate meaningfully into cumulative effects assessments (CEA). It has been suggested that establishing a safe operating space for cumulative effects could move the dial forward in this respect. Yet, there remains little guidance on how to achieve this. Here, we propose a schema for measuring cumulative effects relative to a safe operating space grounded in ecological resilience. We then explore practical considerations for implementing this schema in CEA based on six attributes of a resilient ecosystem: diversity, connectivity, modularity, memory, openness, and feedbacks. We posit that a safe operating space may serve as a powerful tool to understand how our collective footprint may be undermining the ability of ecosystems to adapt and respond to future disturbances. By assessing cumulative effects against a safe operating space, society can better understand when systems are pushed to the edge of their safe zone and manage our interactions so as to avoid a catastrophic shift in the conditions needed for ecological and societal prosperity.

Consideration of Climate Change on Environmental Impact Assessment in Tanzania: Challenges and Prospects

The potential of the environmental impact assessment (EIA) process to respond to climate change impacts of development projects can only be realized with the support of policies, regulations, and actors' engagement. While considering climate change in EIA has become partly mandatory through the EU revised Directive in Europe, African countries are still lagging. This paper assesses Tanzanian policies, laws, regulations, and EIA reports to uncover consideration of climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation measures, drawing from the transformational role of EIA. The methodology integrates content analysis, interpretive policy analysis, and discourse analysis. The analyses draw from environmental policy, three regulatory documents and three EIA reports in Tanzania using a multi-cases study design. The aim was to understand how considering Climate Change issues in EIA has played out in practice. Results reveal less consideration of climate change issues in EIA. The policy, laws, and regulations do not guide when and how the EIA process should consider climate change-related impacts mitigation and adaptation. The practice of EIA in the country is utterly procedural in line with regulations provisions. Consequently, environmental impact statements only profile the climatology of the study area without conducting a deeper analysis of the historical and future climate to enhance the resilience of proposed projects. The weakness exposed in the laws and regulations contributes to the challenges of responding to the impacts of climate change through the EIA process. It is possible to address climate change issues throughout the project life cycle, including design, approval, implementation, monitoring, and auditing, provided the policy and regulations guide how and when the EIA process should consider climate change issues. Additionally, increasing stakeholders' awareness and participation can enhance the EIA process's potential to respond to the impacts of climate change.

Parameterization Framework and Quantification Approach for Integrated Risk and Resilience Assessments

A growing challenge for risk, vulnerability, and resilience assessment is the ability to understand, characterize, and model the complexities of our joint socioecological systems, often delineated with differing natural (e.g., watershed) and imposed (e.g., political) boundaries at the landscape scale. To effectively manage such systems in the increasingly dynamic, adaptive context of environmental change, we need to understand not just food web interactions of contaminants or the flooding impacts of sea level rise and storm surges, but rather the interplay between social and ecological components within the inherent and induced feedforward and feedback system mechanisms. Risk assessment, in its traditional implementation, is a simplification of a complex problem to understand the basic cause-and-effect relationships within a system. This approach allows risk assessors to distill a complex issue into a manageable model that quantifies, or semiquantifies, the effects of an adverse stressor. Alternatively, an integrated risk and resilience assessment moves toward a solution-based assessment with the incorporation of adaptive management practices as 1 of 4 parts of system resilience (i.e., prepare, absorb, recover, and adapt), and directly considers the complexities of the systems being modeled. We present the Multilevel Risk and Resilience Assessment Parameterization framework for the systematic parameterization and deconstruction of management objectives and goals into assessment metrics and quantifiable risk measurement metrics and complementary resilience measurement metrics. As a proof-of-concept, the presented framework is paired with the Bayesian Network-Relative Risk Model for a human-focused subset of a larger risk and resilience assessment of climate change impacts within the Charleston Harbor Watershed of South Carolina. This new parameterization framework goes beyond traditional simplification and embraces the complexity of the system as a whole, which is necessary for a more representative analysis of an open, dynamic complex system. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2021;17:131-146. © 2020 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Impact of agricultural land use and economic growth on nitrous oxide emissions: Evidence from developed and developing countries

The environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) establishes a hypothetical link between economic growth and environmental degradation and has been tested empirically using various measures of pollution, including carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), and nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions. However, few studies have focused on N₂O emissions, despite their projected lifetime of 114 years and 300 times greater warming potential than CO₂. Employing panel data for the period 1980 to 2012, this study uses the EKC to investigate N₂O emissions, including those resulting from agriculture, economic growth, agricultural land use, and exports. Two groups of data are extracted from the panel data: the first group contains the top 15 countries, ranked by N₂O emissions, measured in thousand metric tons of CO₂, while the second group contains the top 18 countries, ranked by share of agriculture in GDP. A pooled mean group approach developed by Pesaran et al. (1999) is used to determine whether long-run relationships exist between the variables after determined by the Hausman test. The results show that N₂O emissions and economic growth are co-integrated in both panels, providing evidence in favour of the EKC. In addition, agricultural land use has a positive and significant effect on N₂O emissions. That is, if countries wish to reduce their N₂O emissions or agricultural N₂O emissions, they should optimize or reduce the use of agricultural land.