The impact of COVID‐19 on unemployment rate: An intelligent based unemployment rate prediction in selected countries of Europe

Predicting the unemployment rate and energy poverty levels in selected European Union countries using an ARIMA-ARNN model

This article analyzes the correlation between energy poverty percentage and unemployment rate for four European countries, Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia, comparing the results with the European average. The time series extracted from the datasets were imported in a hybrid model, namely ARIMA-ARNN, generating predictions for the two variables in order to analyze their interconnectivity. The results obtained from the hybrid model suggest that unemployment rate and energy poverty percentage have comparable tendencies, being strongly correlated. The forecasts suggest that this correlation will be maintained in the future unless appropriate governmental policies are implemented in order to lower the impact of other aspects on energy poverty.

The Impact of COVID-19 on Electricity Prices in Italy, the Czech Republic, and China

COVID-19 is likely to be the 2020s’ deadliest pandemic according to the World Health Organization (WHO). There have been more than 3.7 million confirmed deaths after 15 months spread. Besides the loss of human lives, COVID-19 has other unfavorable impacts on society, education, and the economy. Due to successive lockdowns and the continuous quarantines, the demands on power resources have reduced. Therefore, there is a need to investigate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on electricity prices (EP). In this paper, a set of six economic factors that are affected by COVID-19 and affect EP are considered. These factors were fed into a functional link artificial neural network (FLANN) to model the relationships between them and the EP. An empirical equation was formulated to help decision makers and strategic developers in the electricity markets come up with more appropriate plans. Italy, the Czech Republic, and China were used as case studies in this research.

Unemployment Rates Forecasting with Grey-Based Models in the Post-COVID-19 Period: A Case Study from Vietnam

The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has had a significant impact on most countries’ social and economic perspectives worldwide. Unemployment has become a vital challenge for policymakers as a result of COVID-19′s negative impact. Because of the nonstationary and nonlinear nature of the dataset, researchers applied various time series models to forecast the unemployment rate. This study aims to ensure a better forecasting approach for predicting the unemployment rates with an uncertainty of insufficient knowledge and tiny data throughout Vietnam. The study proposes the Grey theory system-based GM (1,1), the Grey Verhulst Model (GVM), and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model that can more precisely predict unemployment rates. The model’s applications are shown using the Vietnamese unemployment rate at six different rural and urban areas with data sets from 2014–2019. The results indicate that the lower Mean Average Percentage Error (MAPE) values obtained with the GM (1,1) model at all regions for rural and urban areas (excluding Highlands Region in urban area) are extremely encouraging in comparison to other traditional methods. The accurate level of the ARIMA and GVM models follows the GM (1,1) model. The findings of this study show that the effects of the modeling assist policymakers in shaping future labor and economic policies. Furthermore, this study can contribute to the unemployment literature, providing future research directions in the unemployment problems.