Establishment of a Disease-Drug Trial Model for Postmenopausal Osteoporosis: A Zoledronic Acid Case Study

Assessment of Strategies for Safe Drug Discontinuation and Transition of Denosumab Treatment in PMO—Insights From a Mechanistic PK/PD Model of Bone Turnover

Denosumab (Dmab) treatment against postmenopausal osteoporosis (PMO) has proven very efficient in increasing bone mineral density (BMD) and reducing the risk of bone fractures. However, concerns have been recently raised regarding safety when drug treatment is discontinued. Mechanistic pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) models are the most sophisticated tools to develop patient specific drug treatments of PMO to restore bone mass. However, only a few PK-PD models have addressed the effect of Dmab drug holidays on changes in BMD. We showed that using a standard bone cell population model (BCPM) of bone remodelling it is not possible to account for the spike in osteoclast numbers observed after Dmab discontinuation. We show that inclusion of a variable osteoclast precursor pool in BCPMs is essential to predict the experimentally observed rapid rise in osteoclast numbers and the associated increases in bone resorption. This new model also showed that Dmab withdrawal leads to a rapid increase of damage in the bone matrix, which in turn decreases the local safety factor for fatigue failure. Our simulation results show that changes in BMD strongly depend on Dmab concentration in the central compartment. Consequently, bone weight (BW) might play an important factor in calculating effective Dmab doses. The currently clinically prescribed constant Dmab dose of 60 mg injected every 6 months is less effective in increasing BMD for patients with high BW (2.5% for 80 kg in contrast to 8% for 60 kg after 6 years of treatment). However, bone loss observed 24 months after Dmab withdrawal is less pronounced in patients with high BW (3.5% for 80kg and 8.5% for 60 kg). Finally, we studied how to safely discontinue Dmab treatment by exploring several transitional and combined drug treatment strategies. Our simulation results indicate that using transitional reduced Dmab doses are not effective in reducing rapid bone loss. However, we identify that use of a bisphosphonate (BP) is highly effective in avoiding rapid bone loss and increase in bone tissue damage compared to abrupt withdrawal of Dmab. Furthermore, the final values of BMD and damage were not sensitive to the time of administration of the BP.