Pre- and post-pandemic prevalence of antibodies to the 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus in Austrian adults

The unique features of SARS-CoV-2 transmission: Comparison with SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV and 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza virus

From 2002 to 2019, three deadly human coronaviruses (hCoVs), severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS‐CoV), Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS‐CoV) and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus‐2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) emerged to produce outbreaks of SARS, MERS and coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid‐19), respectively. All three hCoVs are members of the Betacoronavirus genus in the subfamily Orthocoronavirinae and share many similarities in virology and epidemiology. However, the pattern and scale of Covid‐19 global spread is similar to 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza (H1N1pdm09), rather than SARS or MERS. Covid‐19 exhibits high viral shedding in the upper respiratory tract at an early stage of infection, and has a high proportion of transmission competent individuals that are pre‐symptomatic, asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic, characteristics seen in H1N1pdm09 but not in SARS or MERS. These two traits of Covid‐19 and H1N1pdm09 result in reduced efficiency in identification of transmission sources by symptomatic screening and play important roles in their ability to spread unchecked to cause pandemics. To overcome these attributes of Covid‐19 in community transmission, identifying the transmission source by testing for virus shedding and interrupting chains of transmission by social distancing and public masking are required.

Transmission of the First Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 Pandemic Wave in Australia Was Driven by Undetected Infections: Pandemic Response Implications

Background

During the first wave of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in Victoria, Australia the rapid increase in notified cases and the high proportion with relatively mild symptoms suggested that community transmission was established before cases were identified. This lead to the hypothesis that those with low-level infections were the main drivers of the pandemic.

Methods

A deterministic susceptible-infected-recovered model was constructed to describe the first pandemic wave in a population structured by disease severity levels of asymptomatic, low-level symptoms, moderate symptoms and severe symptoms requiring hospitalisation. The model incorporated mixing, infectivity and duration of infectiousness parameters to calculate subgroup-specific reproduction numbers for each severity level.

Results

With stratum-specific effective reproduction numbers of 1.82 and 1.32 respectively, those with low-level symptoms, and those with asymptomatic infections were responsible for most of the transmission. The effective reproduction numbers for infections resulting in moderate symptoms and hospitalisation were less than one. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the importance of parameters relating to asymptomatic individuals and those with low-level symptoms.

Conclusions

Transmission of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was largely driven by those invisible to the health system. This has implications for control measures–such as distribution of antivirals to cases and contacts and quarantine/isolation–that rely on detection of infected cases. Pandemic plans need to incorporate milder scenarios, with a graded approach to implementation of control measures.