Improving robustness and accuracy of predicted daily methane emissions of dairy cows using milk mid-infrared spectra

Lactation modeling and the effects of rotational crossbreeding on milk production traits and milk-spectra-predicted enteric methane emissions

Rotational crossbreeding has not been widely studied in relation to the enteric methane emissions of dairy cows, nor has the variation in emissions during lactation been modeled. Milk infrared spectra could be used to predict proxies of methane emissions in dairy cows. Therefore, the objective of this work was to study the effects of crossbreeding on the predicted infrared proxies of methane emissions and the variation in the latter during lactation. Milk samples were taken once from 1,059 cows reared in 2 herds, and infrared spectra of the milk were used to predict milk fat (mean ± SD; 3.79 ± 0.81%) and protein (3.68 ± 0.36%) concentrations, yield (21.4 ± 1.5 g/kg dry matter intake), methane intensity (14.2 ± 2.0 g/kg corrected milk), and daily methane production (358 ± 108 g/d). Of these cows, 620 were obtained from a 3-breed (Holstein, Montbéliarde, and Viking Red) rotational mating system, and the rest were purebred Holsteins. Milk production data and methane traits were analyzed using a nonlinear model that included the fixed effects of herd, genetic group, and parity, and the 4 parameters (a, b, c, and k) of a lactation curve modeled using the Wilmink function. Milk infrared spectra were found to be useful for direct prediction of qualitative proxies, such as methane yield and intensity, but not quantitative traits, such as daily methane production, which appears to be better estimated (450 ± 125 g/d) by multiplying a measured daily milk yield by infrared-predicted methane intensity. Lactation modeling of methane traits showed daily methane production to have a zenith curve, similar to that of milk yield but with a delayed peak (53 vs. 37 d in milk), whereas methane intensity is characterized by an upward curve that increases rapidly during the first third of lactation and then slowly till the end of lactation (10.5 g/kg at 1 d in milk to 15.2 g/kg at 300 d in milk). However, lactation modeling was not useful in explaining methane yield, which is almost constant during lactation. Lastly, the methane yield and intensity of cows from 3-breed rotational crossbreeding are not greater, and their methane production is lower than that of purebred Holsteins (452 vs. 477 g/d). Given the greater longevity of crossbred cows, and their lower replacement rate, rotational crossbreeding could be a way of mitigating the environmental impact of milk production.

Predicting methane emissions of individual grazing dairy cows from spectral analyses of their milk samples

Data on the enteric methane emissions of individual cows are useful not just in assisting management decisions and calculating herd inventories but also as inputs for animal genetic evaluations. Data generation for many animal characteristics, including enteric methane emissions, can be expensive and time consuming, so being able to extract as much information as possible from available samples or data sources is worthy of investigation. The objective of the present study was to attempt to predict individual cow methane emissions from the information contained within milk samples, specifically the spectrum of light transmittance across different wavelengths of the mid-infrared (MIR) region of the electromagnetic spectrum. A total of 93,888 individual spot measures of methane (i.e., individual samples of an animal's breath when using the GreenFeed technology) from 384 lactations on 277 grazing dairy cows were collapsed into weekly averages expressed as grams per day; each weekly average coincided with a MIR spectral analysis of a morning or evening individual cow milk sample. Associations between the spectra and enteric methane measures were performed separately using partial least squares regression or neural networks with different tuning parameters evaluated. Several alternative definitions of the enteric methane phenotype (i.e., average enteric methane in the 6 d preceding or 6 d following taking the milk sample or the average of the 6 d before and after the milk sample, all of which also included the enteric methane emitted on the day of milk sampling), the candidate model features (e.g., milk yield, milk composition, and milk MIR) as well as validation strategy (i.e., cross-validation or leave-one-experimental treatment-out) were evaluated. Irrespective of the validation method, the prediction accuracy was best when the average of the milk MIR from the morning and evening milk sample was used and the prediction model was developed using neural networks; concurrently including milk yield and days in milk in the prediction model generated superior predictions relative to just the spectral information alone. Furthermore, prediction accuracy was best when the enteric methane phenotype was the average of at least 20 methane spot measures across a 6-d period flanking each side of the milk sample with associated spectral data. Based on the strategy that achieved the best accuracy of prediction, the correlation between the actual and predicted daily methane emissions when based on 4-fold cross-validation varied per validation stratum from 0.68 to 0.75; the corresponding range when validated on each of the 8 different experimental treatments focusing on alternative pasture grazing systems represented in the dataset varied from 0.55 to 0.71. The root mean square error of prediction across the 4-folds of cross-validation was 37.46 g/d, whereas the root mean square error averaged across all folds of leave-one-treatment-out was 37.50 g/d. Results suggest that even with the likely measurement errors contained within the MIR spectrum and gold standard enteric methane phenotype, enteric methane can be reasonably well predicted from the infrared spectrum of milk samples. What is yet to be established, however, is whether (a) genetic variation exists in this predicted enteric methane phenotype and (b) selection on estimates of genetic merit for this phenotype translate to actual phenotypic differences in enteric methane emissions.

Imputation of missing milk Fourier transform mid-infrared spectra using existing milk spectral databases: A strategy to improve the reliability of breeding values and predictive models

The use of milk Fourier transform mid-infrared (FT-MIR) spectrometry to develop management and breeding tools for dairy farmers and industry is growing and supported by the availability of numerous new predicted phenotypes to assess the nutritional quality of milk and its technological properties, but also the animal health and welfare status and its environmental fingerprint. For genetic evaluations, having a long-term and representative spectral dairy herd improvement (DHI) database improves the reliabilities of estimated breeding values (EBV) from these phenotypes. Unfortunately, most of the time, the raw spectral data used to generate these estimations are not stored. Moreover, many reference measurements of those phenotypes, needed during the FT-MIR calibration step, are available from past research activities but lack spectra records. So, it is impossible to use them to improve the FT-MIR models. Consequently, there is a strong interest in imputing those missing spectra. The innovative objective of this study was to use the existing large spectral DHI database to estimate missing spectra by selecting probable spectra using, as the match criteria, common dairy traits recorded for a long time by DHI organizations. We tested 4 match criteria combinations. Combination 1 required to have equal fat and protein contents between the sample for which a spectrum was to be estimated and the reference samples in the DHI database. Combination 2 also required an equal urea content. Combination 3 requested equal fat, protein, and lactose contents. Finally, combination 4 included all criteria. When more than one spectrum was found during the search, their average was the estimated spectrum for the query sample. Concretely, this study estimated missing spectra for 1,700 samples using 2,000,000 spectral DHI records. For assessing the effect of this spectral estimation on the prediction quality, FT-MIR equations were used to predict 11 phenotypes, selected as their quantification used different FT-MIR regions. They were related to the milk fat and mineral composition, lactoferrin content, quantity of eructed methane, body weight (BW), and dry matter intake. The accuracy between predictions obtained from actual and estimated spectra was evaluated by calculating the mean absolute error (MAE). The criteria in the fourth and second combinations were too strict to estimate a spectrum for most samples. Indeed, for many samples, no spectra with the same values for those matching criteria was found. The third match criteria combination had a poorer prediction performance for all studied traits and spectral absorptions than the first combination due to fewer matched samples available to compute the missing spectrum. By allowing a range for matching lactose content (±0.1 g/dL milk), we showed that this new combination increased the number of selected samples to compute missing spectra and predict better the infrared absorption at different wavenumbers, especially those related to the lactose quantification. The prediction performance was further improved by performing queries on the entire Walloon DHI spectral database (6,625,570 spectra), and it varied among the studied phenotypes. Without considering the traits used for the matching, the best predictions were obtained for the content of saturated fatty acids (MAE = 0.15 g/dL milk) and BW (MAE = 12.80 kg). Yet, the predictions for the unsaturated fatty acids were less accurate (MAE = 0.13 and 0.018 g/dL milk for monounsaturated and polyunsaturated fatty acids), likely because of the poorer predictions of spectral regions related to long-chain fatty acids. Similarly, poorer predictions were observed for the amount of methane eructed by dairy cows (MAE = 47.02 g/d), likely because it is not directly related to fat content or composition. Prediction accuracies for the remaining traits were also low. In conclusion, we observed that increasing the number of relevant matching criteria helps improve the quality of FT-MIR predicted phenotypes and the number of spectra used during the search. So, it would be of great interest to test in the future the suitability of the developed methodology with large-scale international spectral databases to improve the reliability of EBV from these FT-MIR-based phenotypes and the robustness of FT-MIR predictive models.

Establishment and Validation of Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FT–MIR) Methodology for the Detection of Linoleic Acid in Buffalo Milk

Buffalo milk is a dairy product that is considered to have a higher nutritional value compared to cow’s milk. Linoleic acid (LA) is an essential fatty acid that is important for human health. This study aimed to investigate and validate the use of Fourier transform mid-infrared spectroscopy (FT-MIR) for the quantification of the linoleic acid in buffalo milk. Three machine learning models were used to predict linoleic acid content, and random forest was employed to select the most important subset of spectra for improved model performance. The validity of the FT-MIR methods was evaluated in accordance with ICH Q2 (R1) guidelines using the accuracy profile method, and the precision, the accuracy, and the limit of quantification were determined. The results showed that Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy is a suitable technique for the analysis of linoleic acid, with a lower limit of quantification of 0.15 mg/mL milk. Our results showed that FT-MIR spectroscopy is a viable method for LA concentration analysis.

Association between Days Open and Parity, Calving Season or Milk Spectral Data

Milk spectral data on 2118 cows from nine herds located in northern China were used to access the association of days open (DO). Meanwhile, the parity and calving season of dairy cows were also studied to characterize the difference in DO between groups of these two cow-level factors. The result of the linear mixed-effects model revealed that no significant differences were observed between the parity groups. However, a significant difference in DO exists between calving season groups. The interaction between parity and calving season presented that primiparous cows always exhibit lower DO among all calving season groups, and the variation in DO among parity groups was especially clearer in winter. Survival analysis revealed that the difference in DO between calving season groups might be caused by the different P/AI at the first TAI. In addition, the summer group had a higher chance of conception in the subsequent services than other groups, implying that the micro-environment featured by season played a critical role in P/AI. A weak linkage between DO and wavenumbers ranging in the mid-infrared region was detected. In summary, our study revealed that the calving season of dairy cows can be used to optimize the reproduction management. The potential application of mid-infrared spectroscopy in dairy cows needs to be further developed.

Methodological guidelines: Cow milk mid-infrared spectra to predict GreenFeed enteric methane emissions

Various methodological protocols were tested on milk samples from cows fed diets affecting both methanogenesis and milk synthesis to identify the best approach for the prediction of GreenFeed system (GF) measured methane (CH₄) emissions by milk mid-infrared (MIR) spectroscopy. The models developed were also tested on a data set from cows fed chemical inhibitors of CH₄ emission [3-nitrooxypropanol (3NOP)] that just marginally affect milk composition. A total of 129 primiparous and multiparous Holstein cows fed diets with different methanogenic potential were considered. Individual milk yield (MY) and dry matter intake were recorded daily, whereas fat- and protein-corrected milk (FPCM) was recorded twice a week. The MIR spectra from 2 consecutive milkings were collected twice a week. Twenty CH₄ spot measurements with GF were taken as the basic measurement unit (BMU) of CH₄. The equations were built using partial least squares regression by splitting the database into calibration and validation data sets (excluding 3NOP samples). Models were developed for milk MIR spectra by milking and on day spectra obtained by averaging spectra from 2 consecutive milkings. Models based on day spectra were calibrated by using CH₄ reference data for a measurement duration of 1, 2, 3, or 4 BMU. Models built from the average of the day spectra collected during the corresponding CH₄ measurement periods were developed. Corrections of spectra by days in milk (DIM) and the inclusion of parity, MY, and FPCM as explanatory variables were tested as tools to improve model performance. Models built on day milk MIR spectra gave slightly better performances that those developed using spectra from a single milking. Long duration of CH₄ measurement by GF performed better than short duration: the coefficient of determination of validation (R²V) for CH₄ emissions expressed in grams per day were 0.60 vs. 0.52 for 4 and 1 BMU, respectively. When CH₄ emissions were expressed as grams per kilogram of dry of matter intake, grams per kilogram of MY, or grams per kilogram of FPCM, performance with a long duration also improved. Coupling GF reference data with the average of milk MIR spectra collected throughout the corresponding CH₄ measurement period gave better predictions than using day spectra (R²V = 0.70 vs. 0.60 for CH₄ as g/d on 4 BMU). Correcting the day spectra by DIM improved R²V compared with the equivalent DIM-uncorrected models (R²V = 0.67 vs. 0.60 for CH₄ as g/d on 4 BMU). Adding other phenotypic information as explanatory variables did not further improve the performance of models built on single day DIM-corrected spectra, whereas including MY (or FPCM) improved the performance of models built on the average of spectra (uncorrected by DIM) recorded during the CH₄ measurement period (R²V = 0.73 vs. 0.70 for CH₄ as g/d on 4 BMU). When validating the models on the 3NOP data set, predictions were poor without (R²V = 0.13 for CH₄ as g/d on 1 BMU) or with (R²V = 0.31 for CH₄ as g/d on 1 BMU) integration of 3NOP data in the models. Thus, specific models would be required for CH₄ prediction when cows receive chemical inhibitors of CH₄ emissions not affecting milk composition.

Predicting enteric methane emission in lactating Holsteins based on reference methane data collected by the GreenFeed system

Methane emission is not included in the current breeding goals for dairy cattle mainly due to the expense and difficulty in obtaining sufficient data to generate accurate estimates of the relevant traits. While several models have been developed to predict methane emission from milk spectra using reference methane data obtained by the respiration chamber, SF6 and sniffer methods, the prediction of methane emission from milk mid-infrared (MIR) spectra using reference methane data collected by the GreenFeed system has not yet been explored. Methane emission was monitored for 151 cows using the GreenFeed system. Prediction models were developed for daily and average (for the trial period of 12 or 14 days) methane production (g/d), yield (g/kg DM intake (DMI)) and intensity (g/kg of fat- and protein-corrected milk) using partial least squares regression. The predictions were evaluated in 100 repeated validation cycles, where animals were randomly partitioned into training (80%) and testing (20%) populations for each cycle. The best performing model was observed for average methane intensity using MIR, parity and DMI with validation coefficient of determination (R²_val) and RMSE of prediction of 0.66 and 4.7 g/kg of fat- and protein-corrected milk, respectively. The accuracy of the best models for average methane production and average methane yield were poor (R²_val = 0.28 and 0.12, respectively). A lower accuracy of prediction was observed for methane intensity and production (R²_val = 0.42 and 0.17) when daily records were used while prediction for methane yield was comparable to that for average methane yield (R²_val = 0.16). Our results suggest the potential to predict methane intensity with moderate accuracy. In this case, prediction models for average methane values were generally better than for daily measures when using the GreenFeed system to obtain reference methane emission measurements.

Multiple Country Approach to Improve the Test-Day Prediction of Dairy Cows' Dry Matter Intake

Simple Summary

Dry matter intake, related to the number of nutrients available to an animal to meet its production and health needs, is crucial for the economic, environmental, and welfare management of dairy herds. Because the equipment required to weigh the ingested food at an individual level is not broadly available, we propose some new ways to approach the actual dry matter consumed by a dairy cow for a given day. To do so, we used regression models using parity (number of lactations), week of lactation, milk yield, milk mid-infrared spectrum, and prediction of bodyweight, fat, protein, lactose, and fatty acids content in milk. We chose these elements to predict individual dry matter intake because they are either easily accessible or routinely provided by regional dairy organizations (often called “dairy herd improvement” associations). We succeeded in producing a model whose dry matter intake predictions were moderately related to the actual values.

Abstract

We predicted dry matter intake of dairy cows using parity, week of lactation, milk yield, milk mid-infrared (MIR) spectrum, and MIR-based predictions of bodyweight, fat, protein, lactose, and fatty acids content in milk. The dataset comprised 10,711 samples of 534 dairy cows with a geographical diversity (Australia, Canada, Denmark, and Ireland). We set up partial least square (PLS) regressions with different constructs and a one-hidden-layer artificial neural network (ANN) using the highest contribution variables. In the ANN, we replaced the spectra with their projections to the 25 first PLS factors explaining 99% of the spectral variability to reduce the model complexity. Cow-independent 10 × 10-fold cross-validation (CV) achieved the best performance with root mean square errors (RMSE_CV) of 3.27 ± 0.08 kg for the PLS regression and 3.25 ± 0.13 kg for ANN. Although the available data were significantly different, we also performed a country-independent validation (CIV) to measure the models’ performance fairly. We found RMSE_CIV varying from 3.73 to 6.03 kg for PLS and 3.69 to 5.08 kg for ANN. Ultimately, based on the country-independent validation, we discussed the developed models’ performance with those achieved by the National Research Council’s equation.