Risk stratification for central conventional chondrosarcoma of bone: A novel system predicting risk of metastasis and death in the Cancer Registry of Norway cohort

A machine learning-based model for clinical prediction of distal metastasis in chondrosarcoma: a multicenter, retrospective study

Background

The occurrence of distant metastases (DM) limits the overall survival (OS) of patients with chondrosarcoma (CS). Early diagnosis and treatment of CS remains a great challenge in clinical practice. The aim of this study was to investigate metastatic factors and develop a risk stratification model for clinicians' decision-making.

Methods

Six machine learning (ML) algorithms, including logistic regression (LR), plain Bayesian classifier (NBC), decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), gradient boosting machine (GBM) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). A 10-fold cross-validation was performed for each model separately, multicenter data was used as external validation, and the best (highest AUC) model was selected to build the network calculator.

Results

A total of 1,385 patients met the inclusion criteria, including 82 (5.9%) patients with metastatic CS. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the risk of DM was significantly higher in patients with higher pathologic grades, T-stage, N-stage, and non-left primary lesions, as well as those who did not receive surgery and chemotherapy. The AUC of the six ML algorithms for predicting DM ranged from 0.911-0.985, with the extreme gradient enhancement algorithm (XGBoost) having the highest AUC. Therefore, we used the XGB model and uploaded the results to an online risk calculator for estimating DM risk.

Conclusions

In this study, combined with adequate SEER case database and external validation with data from multicenter institutions in different geographic regions, we confirmed that CS, T, N, laterality, and grading of surgery and chemotherapy were independent risk factors for DM. Based on the easily available clinical risk factors, machine learning algorithms built the XGB model that predicts the best outcome for DM. An online risk calculator helps simplify the patient assessment process and provides decision guidance for precision medicine and long-term cancer surveillance, which contributes to the interpretability of the model.

Intraosseous conventional central chondrosarcoma does not metastasise irrespective of grade in pelvis, scapula and in long bone locations

Background

Histological grade has been regarded as the most important prognostic factor in conventional central chondrosarcoma. To evaluate whether the presence of an extraosseous tumour component is associated with a decreased metastasis-free survival or disease-specific survival and alternatively to develop a simple prognostic and clinical decision-making tool.

Material and methods

We searched two prospectively maintained international sarcoma centre databases for primary non metastatic central conventional chondrosarcomas of all grades in pelvis, scapula or long bone location, undergoing curative treatment, diagnosed between 2000 and 2020. Pre-treatment MRI scans were reviewed for the presence of an extraosseous mass. The metastasis-free survival (MFS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method from surgery to event, death or last follow-up.

Results

336 patients were identified between 2000 and 2020, undergoing surgical treatment for conventional central chondrosarcoma. 111 patients (33 %) had grade 1 tumours, 149 patients (44 %) had grade 2, and 76 patient (23 %) had grade 3 chondrosarcomas determined as the highest grade in the final resected specimen. An extraosseous soft tissue component was more frequent in higher grade tumours (p < 0.001) and present in 200 cases (60 %). None of the patients with an intraosseous tumour developed metastases or died of the disease. For patients with extraosseous tumour component, MFS was 92 % (95 % CI, 96-100) at 2-years and 74 % (95 % CI, 67-81) at 10-years and DSS was 91 % (95 % CI, 87-95) at 2-years and 75 % (95 % CI, 68-82) at 10-years. The MFS and DSS was significantly different (p < 0.001) for those patients with or without an extraosseous tumour component, irrespective of grade or anatomical location.

Discussion

The results of this study has shown that the metastatic potential of intraosseous conventional central chondrosarcoma is negligible. The presence of an extraosseous soft tissue component may be used for prognostication and to guide treatment pathways for patients with central cartilage tumours.

Tumor necrosis is an underappreciated histopathologic factor in the grading of chondrosarcoma

BACKGROUND

Cartilaginous neoplasms can be challenging to grade; there is a need to create an evidence-based rubric for grading. The goal of this study was to identify histopathologic features of chondrosarcoma that were associated with 5-year survival and to compare these to traditional patient, tumor and treatment variables.

METHODS

This was a retrospective review of all patients undergoing surgical resection of a primary chondrosarcoma with at least 2 years of follow up. All specimens were independently reviewed by two pathologists and histopathologic features scored. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed utilizing Kaplan Meier and proportional hazards methods to identify variables associated with 5-year disease specific survival (DSS) and disease free survival (DFS).

RESULTS

We identified 51 patients with an average follow up of 49 months eligible for inclusion. 30% of tumors were low grade, 45% were intermediate grade, and 25% were high grade. In a univariate analysis considering histopathologic factors, higher tumor mitotic rate (HR 8.9, p < 0.001), tumor dedifferentiation (HR 7.3, p < 0.001), increased tumor cellularity (HR 5.8, p = 0.001), increased tumor atypia (HR 5.8, p = 0.001), LVI (HR 4.7, p = 0.04) and higher tumor necrosis (HR 3.7, p = 0.02) were all associated with worse 5-year DSS. In a multivariate analysis controlling for potentially confounding variables, higher tumor necrosis was significantly associated with disease specific survival survival (HR 3.58, p = 0.035); none of the factors were associated with DFS.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides an evidence-based means for considering histopathologic markers and their association with prognosis in chondrosarcoma. Our findings suggest that necrosis and LVI warrant further study.

Chondrosarcoma of the Chest Wall: A Single Institution Review of 50 Cases

INTRODUCTION

Chondrosarcoma (CS) is most common primary osseous tumor of the chest wall. The aim of this study was to report results from surgical procedures and evaluate clinical factors predicting survival of patients with chest wall CSs treated in a single tertiary sarcoma center.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Fifty patients with primary CS located in the ribs and sternum were included. Details of the clinical data and oncological outcomes, including local recurrence (LR) and disease-specific survival (DSS), were collected.

RESULTS

The tumor was primarily originated in the sternum in 6 patients (12.5%) and in ribs 2 to 11 in the remaining patients. Specimens were histologically graded 1 in 13 patients (26%), 2 in 28 (56%), 3 in 8 (16%), and 1 (2%) as mesenchymal grade 3 CS. R0 margins were obtained in all cases. Reconstruction was warranted in 47 (94%) cases. Local recurrence developed in 3 (6%) patients, and the median time to LR was 17 (range, 16-68) months. Eight (16%) patients developed metastasis. Increasing tumor volume was a statistically significant factor for reduction of DSS.

CONCLUSIONS

Chondrosarcoma of the chest wall can be treated effectively with clear margins, resulting in lower LR rate and higher DSS than CS of the extremities and pelvis. Metastasis of the chest wall mostly occurs in high-grade tumors, and the locations of the metastases differ greatly from those observed in CS of the extremities and pelvis. Metastases are commonly extrapulmonary, indicating the need for postoperative follow-up with multiple imaging modalities to monitor recurrence and metastases.

Outcomes and Complications of Pelvic Chondrosarcomas Treated Using Navigation Guidance and Multidisciplinary Approach: Is the Tumor Volume a Prognostic Factor?

(1) Background: Pelvic Chondrosarcomas (CS) have a poor prognosis. The grade is the most important survival predictor; other factors are periacetabular location and Dedifferentiated CS subtype. The aim of the study is to investigate a series of CS of the pelvis, to analyze the prognostic factors that affect outcomes and to demonstrate how the use of intraoperative navigation can reduce the complications without worse outcomes. (2) Methods: Retrospective study on 35 patients (21 M, 14 F), median age at surgery 54 years (IQR 41−65), with pelvic CS, treated with hemipelvectomy under navigation guidance. (3) Results: 30 high-grade CS and 5 low-grade CS; mean follow-up 51.4 months. There was a positive linear correlation between the tumor volume and the presence of local recurrence at follow-up. The mean survival time of patients with larger chondrosarcoma volume was lower, but not significantly so. Lower MSTS score was associated with significantly lower survival time (p < 0.001). (4) Conclusion: in this series overall survival, LR and distant metastasis were comparable with recent literature, while complication rate was lower compared to similar series without the use of navigation. There was a correlation between tumor volume and local recurrence rate but not with the presence of metastasis at follow up.

Clinical Characteristics, Prognostic Factor and a Novel Dynamic Prediction Model for Overall Survival of Elderly Patients With Chondrosarcoma: A Population-Based Study

Background

Chondrosarcoma is the most common primary bone sarcoma among elderly population. This study aims to explore independent prognostic factors and develop prediction model in elderly patients with CHS.

Methods

This study retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of elderly patients diagnosed as CHS between 2004 and 2018 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. We randomly divided enrolled patients into training and validation group, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to determine independent prognostic factors. Based on the identified variables, the nomogram was developed and verified to predict the 12-, 24-, and 36-month overall survival (OS) of elderly patients with CHS. A k-fold cross-validation method (k=10) was performed to validate the newly proposed model. The discrimination, calibration and clinical utility of the nomogram were assessed using the Harrells concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA), the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and net reclassification index (NRI). Furthermore, a web-based survival calculator was developed based on the nomogram.

Results

The study finally included 595 elderly patients with CHS and randomized them into the training group (419 cases) and validation group (176 cases) at a ratio of 7:3. Age, sex, grade, histology, M stage, surgery and tumor size were identified as independent prognostic factors of this population. The novel nomogram displayed excellent predictive performance, which can be accessible by https://nomoresearch.shinyapps.io/elderlywithCHS/, with a C-index of 0.800 for the training group and 0.789 for the validation group. The value AUC values at 12-, 24-, and 36-month of 0.866, 0.855, and 0.860 in the training group and of 0.839, 0.856, and 0.840 in the validation group, respectively. The calibration curves exhibited good concordance from the predicted survival probabilities to actual observation. The ROC curves, IDI, NRI, and DCA showed the nomogram was superior to the existing AJCC staging system.

Conclusion

This study developed a novel web-based nomogram for accurately predicting probabilities of OS in elderly patients with CHS, which will contribute to personalized survival assessment and clinical management for elderly patients with CHS.

Surgical Treatment of Bone Sarcoma

Bone sarcomas are rare primary malignant mesenchymal bone tumors. The three main entities are osteosarcoma, chondrosarcoma, and Ewing sarcoma. While prognosis has improved for affected patients over the past decades, bone sarcomas are still critical conditions that require an interdisciplinary diagnostic and therapeutic approach. While radiotherapy plays a role especially in Ewing sarcoma and chemotherapy in Ewing sarcoma and osteosarcoma, surgery remains the main pillar of treatment in all three entities. After complete tumor resection, the created bone defects need to be reconstructed. Possible strategies are implantation of allografts or autografts including vascularized bone grafts (e.g., of the fibula). Around the knee joint, rotationplasty can be performed or, as an alternative, the implantation of (expandable) megaprostheses can be performed. Challenges still associated with the implantation of foreign materials are aseptic loosening and infection. Future improvements may come with advances in 3D printing of individualized resection blades/implants, thus also securing safe tumor resection margins while at the same time shortening the required surgical time. Faster osseointegration and lower infection rates may possibly be achieved through more elaborate implant surface structures.

Chondrosarcoma-from Molecular Pathology to Novel Therapies

Chondrosarcoma (CHS) is the second most common primary malignant bone sarcoma. Overall survival and prognosis of this tumor are various and often extreme, depending on histological grade and tumor subtype. CHS treatment is difficult, and surgery remains still the gold standard due to the resistance of this tumor to other therapeutic options. Considering the role of differentiation of CHS subtypes and the need to develop new treatment strategies, in this review, we introduced a multidisciplinary characterization of CHS from its pathology to therapies. We described the morphology of each subtype with the role of immunohistochemical markers in diagnostics of CHS. We also summarized the most frequently mutated genes and genome regions with altered pathways involved in the pathology of this tumor. Subsequently, we discussed imaging methods and the role of currently used therapies, including surgery and the limitations of chemo and radiotherapy. Finally, in this review, we presented novel targeted therapies, including those at ongoing clinical trials, which can be a potential future target in designing new therapeutics for patients with CHS.

Chondrosarcoma local recurrence in the Cancer Registry of Norway cohort (1990-2013): Patterns and impact

BACKGROUND

There appears to be an association between local recurrence (LR) and risk of metastasis and death in central conventional chondrosarcoma (CCCS) of bone, but this has not been quantified in modern cohorts at a subtype level.

METHODS

We identified nonmetastatic cases of CCCS (N = 180) from the Cancer Registry of Norway. We present prognostic analysis of LR accounting for immortal time bias by descriptive statistics and multivariable Cox models.

RESULTS

Of 40 LR, one case demonstrated upgrading while two dedifferentiation. LR was associated with increased risk of metastasis (hazard ratio [HR] = 4.1 [confidence interval, 1.5-10.7]) and death (HR = 9.3 [5.0-17.5]) overall. LR was associated with significant increased risk of metastasis for those with a soft tissue component, axial location, malignancy grade 2, but not atypical cartilaginous tumor's, appropriately treated curettage patients, intramedullary tumors, grade 1 histology, extremity location or "Oslo low risk" group status. We found an increased risk of death for all groups except for those treated by appropriate curettage or belonging to the "Oslo low risk" group. About 50% of LR CCCS were asymptomatic and revealed by routine follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Upgrading of LR for CCCS was a seldom event. LR was associated with significant increased risk of metastasis and death overall, but not for appropriately treated curettage patients or "Oslo low risk" status.