The optimal cut-off values for tumor size, number of lesions, and CEA levels in patients with surgically treated colorectal cancer liver metastases: An international, multi-institutional study

Resection of colorectal carcinoma liver metastases: A population-based study in outcomes and factors associated with recurrent disease

OBJECTIVE

To assess the hepatic disease-free survival (HDFS) and overall survival (OS) of patients who underwent resection of colorectal cancer liver metastases (CRCLM) in our population, and evaluate what factors are associated with these outcomes.

METHODS

Patients with resected non-mucinous CRCLM between January 2013-February 2020 were retrospectively identified. Dates of diagnosis, surgery, and, if applicable, death were recorded. HDFS and OS were calculated using a census date of 24 September 2022. Separate Cox multivariate regression analyses were performed to evaluate for association between HDFS and OS and the following factors: pre-operative imaging interval (<4 weeks vs. ≥4 weeks); pre-operative imaging modality (CT only vs. MRI+CT); extrahepatic disease at time of hepatectomy (yes vs. no); tumor burden score (TBS, where TBS2 = (largest axial dimension of CRCLM)2 + (number of CRCLM)2); pT and pN; and neoadjuvant chemotherapy.

RESULTS

137 subjects (mean age, 61 ± 11 years, 86 males) were included. Associations with recurrent hepatic disease were found with chemotherapy (HR 2.11[95 % CI = 1.13-3.92]), TBS (HR 1.30[95 % CI = 1.17-1.45]), MRI+CT (HR 2.12[95 % CI = 1.29-3.48]), and extrahepatic disease at hepatectomy (HR 2.16[95 % CI = 1.08-4.35]). For mortality, associations were found with TBS (HR 1.22[95 % CI = 1.09-1.37]), pT (HR 1.45[95 % CI = 1.05-2.00]), and extrahepatic disease at hepatectomy (HR 2.10[95 % CI = 1.31-3.36]).

CONCLUSION

In our population, non-imaging related factors TBS, neoadjuvant chemotherapy, pT and presence of extrahepatic disease at time of hepatectomy were associated with HDFS and/or OS. The preoperative imaging interval and use of preoperative MRI were not associated with improved patient outcomes.

Predictive modeling algorithms for liver metastasis in colorectal cancer: A systematic review of the current literature

This study aims to assess the quality and performance of predictive models for colorectal cancer liver metastasis (CRCLM). A systematic review was performed to identify relevant studies from various databases. Studies that described or validated predictive models for CRCLM were included. The methodological quality of the predictive models was assessed. Model performance was evaluated by the reported area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Of the 117 articles screened, seven studies comprising 14 predictive models were included. The distribution of included predictive models was as follows: radiomics (n = 3), logistic regression (n = 3), Cox regression (n = 2), nomogram (n = 3), support vector machine (SVM, n = 2), random forest (n = 2), and convolutional neural network (CNN, n = 2). Age, sex, carcinoembryonic antigen, and tumor staging (T and N stage) were the most frequently used clinicopathological predictors for CRCLM. The mean AUCs ranged from 0.697 to 0.870, with 86% of the models demonstrating clear discriminative ability (AUC > 0.70). A hybrid approach combining clinical and radiomic features with SVM provided the best performance, achieving an AUC of 0.870. The overall risk of bias was identified as high in 71% of the included studies. This review highlights the potential of predictive modeling to accurately predict the occurrence of CRCLM. Integrating clinicopathological and radiomic features with machine learning algorithms demonstrates superior predictive capabilities.

Prognostic role of serum carcinoembryonic antigen in patients receiving liver resection for colorectal cancer liver metastasis: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) is a broad-spectrum tumor marker for differential diagnosis, monitoring, and response assessment of a variety of malignancies.

AIM

To evaluate whether serum CEA could predict the prognosis in patients with colorectal cancer liver metastasis (CRCLM) before and after liver resection (LR).

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, Cochrane, and Web of Science were systematically searched to retrieve literature, with a search cut-off date of February 27, 2023. Articles were strictly screened for inclusion according to pre-specified inclusion and exclusion criteria. Data were pooled and analyzed using Stata 16.0.

RESULTS

This meta-analysis included 36 studies involving a total of 11143 CRCLM patients. The results showed that a high pre-LR serum CEA level was correlated with poor overall survival (OS) [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.61, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.49-1.75, P < 0.001] and recurrence-free survival (HR = 1.27, 95%CI: 1.11-1.45, P < 0.001) in CRCLM patients. A high post-LR serum CEA level predicted poor OS (HR = 2.66, 95%CI: 2.10-3.38, P < 0.001). A comparison by treatment modality, analysis modality, patient source, and cutoff-value showed that overall, high preoperative and postoperative serum CEA levels remained correlated with a poor prognosis.

CONCLUSION

This study concluded that high pre-LR and post-LR serum CEA levels were significantly correlated with a poor prognosis in CRCLM patients.

Meta-analysis of the prognostic value of serum carcinoembryonic antigen in patients with colorectal cancer liver metastases after hepatectomy

OBJECTIVES

Carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) is a broad-spectrum tumor marker for differential diagnosis, monitoring, and response assessment of a variety of malignancies. This meta-analysis was aimed at evaluating whether serum CEA could predict the prognosis in patients with colorectal cancer liver metastasis (CRCLM) before and after liver resection (LR).

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, Cochrane, and Web of Science were systematically searched to retrieve literature, with a search cutoff date of 27 February 2023. Articles were strictly screened for inclusion according to pre-specified inclusion and exclusion criteria. Data were pooled and analyzed using Stata 16.0.

RESULTS

This meta-analysis included 36 studies involving a total of 11 143 CRCLM patients. The results showed that a high pre-LR serum CEA level was correlated with poor overall survival (OS: HR = 1.61, 95% CI = 1.49-1.75, P < 0.001) and recurrence-free survival (RFS: HR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.11-1.45, P < 0.001) in CRCLM patients. A high post-LR serum CEA level predicted poor overall survival (OS: HR = 2.66, 95% CI = 2.10-3.38, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

High preoperative and postoperative serum CEA levels in patients with CRCLM were significantly associated with poor prognosis, independent of treatment modality, mode of analysis, case origin, and cutoff value classification.

Proposal of the Second Cutoff of Serum Carcinoembryonic Antigen Levels to Stratify Patients into Low, Intermediate, and High Risks at Recurrences after Curative Resection of Gastric Cancer

INTRODUCTION

Carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 are widely used for treating various cancers, with cutoff values of 5.0 ng/mL and 37.0 IU/mL, respectively. However, these cutoff values are not for specific diseases or purposes but are uniformly used for any disease and any purpose. It is also unclear as to whether patients are at equal risk of recurrence if they are below the cutoff values. This study aimed to investigate the optimal cutoff of serum tumor markers in the stratification of recurrence risk after curative resection of gastric cancer.

METHODS

We constructed a nine-center integrated database of patients who received gastrectomy between January 2010 and December 2014 with a 5-year follow-up period. We determined the cutoff value of preoperative serum tumor marker levels correlated with postoperative recurrences and evaluated its performance in risk stratification for recurrences in 948 patients with stage II/III gastric cancer who underwent radical resection.

RESULTS

The hazard ratio for postoperative recurrences increased at two points of preoperative CEA levels, 3.6 ng/mL and 5.0 ng/mL, which were set as cutoffs. These two cutoffs stratified relapse-free survival into three levels.

CONCLUSIONS

By adding a second cutoff value for preoperative serum CEA, which was proposed specifically for the prediction of recurrences, patients can be stratified into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk recurrences after curative resection of gastric cancer.

The prognostic significance of clinicopathological characteristics in early-onset versus late-onset colorectal cancer liver metastases

PURPOSE

This study aimed to explore the prognostic significance of clinicopathological characteristics in early-onset versus late-onset colorectal liver metastases (CRLM).

METHODS

The data of CRLM patients who underwent hepatectomy from September 2010 to September 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. According to the age of primary cancer diagnosis, patients were divided into early-onset CRLM (EOCRLM) and late-onset CRLM (LOCRLM) groups. Clinicopathological parameters were compared between the two groups. Cox regression model and Kaplan-Meier method were used to analyze the effect of clinicopathological parameters on overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS).

RESULTS

In total, 431 CRLM patients were identified, 130 with EOCRLM and 301 with LOCRLM. Compared with LOCRLM patients, EOCRLM patients had lower American Society of Anesthesia (ASA) grade and longer operation time (204 vs. 179 min). More aggressive features were presented in EOCRLM patients including synchronous liver metastases (76.9% vs. 61.1%) and bilobar involvement (43.8% vs. 33.2%). No significant difference in OS or RFS was found between the two groups. Multivariate analysis of EOCRLM group showed that preoperative CA19-9 level and RAS/BRAF status were predictive of OS, while bilobar involvement and preoperative CEA level were associated with RFS. In LOCRLM group, the number of CRLM, preoperative CA19-9 level, and BRAF status were associated with OS, while the number of CRLM was associated with RFS.

CONCLUSIONS

The preoperative CA19-9 level, RAS/BRAF status, bilobar involvement, and preoperative CEA level were predictive of EOCRLM patient prognosis, while the number of CRLM, preoperative CA19-9 level, and BRAF status were predictive of LOCRLM patient prognosis.

Circulating caspase-cleaved cytokeratin 18 correlates with tumour burden and response to therapy in patients with colorectal cancer liver metastasis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Systemic chemotherapy followed by hepatic resection is the treatment of choice for patients with colorectal cancer liver metastasis (CRCLM) but reliable biomarkers predicting response to therapy are needed. Spontaneous apoptosis of single tumour cells is common in CRCLM. We explored the potential of circulating apoptosis markers to predict treatment response.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Fifty-eight patients with CRCLM or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) were included in this study. Tumour tissue and blood samples were obtained before and after initiation of chemotherapy. Immunohistochemistry and ELISA assays were utilized to quantify the apoptosis marker caspase-cleaved cytokeratin 18 (M30) in tissue and circulation.

RESULTS

CRCLM tissues showed more apoptotic tumour cells than HCC, or healthy liver. This was associated with elevated levels of circulating M30 (median = 244 U/l vs. 37 U/l in healthy controls, p = 0.009) which correlated with tumour volume (r² = 0.92). Patients with progressive disease during chemotherapy showed higher M30 levels before therapy than responders (745 U/l vs. 136 U/l, p = 0.016). The predictive potential of M30 was higher than that of the tumour markers CA19-9 or CEA (AUC: 0.93, 0.63, and 0.78, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Apoptotic tumour cells release cellular debris into the circulation, which provides information about tumour size and vitality.

Performance of prognostic models incorporating KRAS mutation status to predict survival after resection of colorectal liver metastases

BACKGROUND

The Genetic And Morphologic Evaluation (GAME) score and modified clinical score (m-CS) are two novel prognostic models that incorporate KRAS mutation status to predict survival after resection of colorectal liver metastases (CRLM). This retrospective cohort study evaluated the performance of these two models.

METHODS

A total of 103 patients who underwent resection of CRLM between 2007 and 2017 and had known KRAS mutation status were included, 39 (37.9%) of whom had KRAS mutated tumours. Complete case analysis of the patients was performed according to the Clinical Risk Score (CRS), m-CS, and GAME score. The primary outcome was overall survival stratified according to low-risk and high-risk scores. Harrell's C-index and Akaike information criterion (AIC) were used to compare the discrimination of the evaluated prognostic models.

RESULTS

The GAME score demonstrated the largest difference in overall survival for patients stratified according to low-risk and high-risk groups. Harrell's C-index values for the CRS, m-CS, and GAME models were 0.583, 0.600, and 0.668, respectively. AIC values for the CRS, m-CS, and GAME models were 441, 439, and 427, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The GAME score outperforms the CRS and m-CS in predicting overall survival after resection of CRLM in patients with known KRAS mutation status.

Nontumor related risk score: A new tool to improve prediction of prognosis after hepatectomy for colorectal liver metastases

BACKGROUND

Prognostic stratification of patients with colorectal cancer liver metastasis based solely on tumor-related factors has only moderate discriminatory ability. We hypothesized that the inclusion of nontumor related factors can improve prediction of long-term prognosis of patients with colorectal cancer liver metastasis.

METHODS

Nontumor related laboratory markers were assessed utilizing a training cohort from 2 U.S. institutions (n = 1,205). Factors independently associated with prognosis were used to develop a nontumor related prognostic score. The discriminatory ability, assessed by Harrell's C-statistics (C-index) and net reclassification improvement, was validated and compared with 3 commonly used tumor-related clinical risk scores: Fong clinical risk scores, m-clinical risk scores, and Genetic and Morphological Evaluation (GAME) score in an external validation cohort from 5 Asian (n = 1,307) and 3 European (n = 1,058) institutions. The discriminatory ability of nontumor related prognostic score combined with each of these 3 tumor-related prognostic scores was also estimated.

RESULTS

Alkaline phosphatase (hazard ratio 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-1.84), albumin (hazard ratio 0.71; 95% confidence interval, 0.57-0.89), and mean corpuscular volume (hazard ratio 19.0, per log unit; 95% confidence interval, 4.79-75.0) were each independently associated with increased risk of death after resection of colorectal cancer liver metastasis (all P < .05). In turn, alkaline phosphatase, albumin, and mean corpuscular volume were combined to form a nontumor related prognostic score (2.942 × mean corpuscular volume + 0.399 × alkaline phosphatase-0.339 × albumin-12) × 10 (median, 16; range, 1-30). The nontumor related prognostic score had good-to-modest discriminatory ability in the external cohort (C-index = 0.58), which was comparable to the 3 established tumor-related prognostic scores (C-index: Fong clinical risk scores, 0.53, m-clinical risk scores, 0.55, GAME, 0.58). The addition of the nontumor related prognostic score to the tumor-related prognostic scores enhanced the discriminatory ability in the entire study cohort (C-index: nontumor related score+Fong, 0.60, nontumor related score+m-clinical risk scores, 0.61, nontumor related score+GAME, 0.64), as well reclassification improvement (42.5, 42.7%, and 21.2%, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Nontumor related prognostic information may help improve the prognostic stratification of patients after resection of colorectal cancer liver metastasis. The nontumor related prognostic score may be combined with tumor-related prognostic tools to enhance prognostic stratification of patients with colorectal cancer liver metastasis.

Comparative Analysis of Circulating Biomarkers for Patients Undergoing Resection of Colorectal Liver Metastases

Surgical tumor resection has evolved as a potentially curative therapy for patients with resectable colorectal liver metastases (CRLM). However, disease recurrence is common and the available preoperative stratification strategies are often imprecise to identify the ideal candidates for surgical treatment, resulting in a postoperative 5-year survival rate below 50%. Data on the prognostic value of CEA, CA19-9 and other common laboratory parameters after CRLM resection are scarce and partly inconclusive. Here, we analyzed the prognostic potential of circulating CEA and CA19-9 in comparison to other standard laboratory markers in resectable CRLM patients. Serum levels of tumor markers and other laboratory parameters were analyzed in 125 patients with CRLM undergoing tumor resection at a tertiary referral center. Results were correlated with clinical data and outcome. Both tumor markers were significantly elevated in CRLM patients compared to healthy controls. Interestingly, elevated levels of CEA, CA19-9 and C-reactive protein (CRP) were associated with an unfavorable prognosis after CRLM resection in Kaplan-Meier curve analysis. However, only CEA and not CA19-9 or CRP serum levels were an independent prognostic marker in multivariate Cox regression analysis. Our data demonstrate that circulating levels of CEA rather than CA19-9 might be a valuable addition to the existing preoperative stratification algorithms to identify patients with a poor prognosis after CRLM resection.

Neoadjuvant immunotherapy in primary and metastatic colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second most common solid organ cancer. Traditional treatment is with surgery and chemotherapy. Immunotherapy has recently emerged as a neoadjuvant therapy that could change treatment strategy in both primary resectable and metastatic CRC.

METHODS

A literature review of PubMed with a focus on studies exploring upfront immunotherapy in operable CRC, either for primary resectable stage I-III cancers or for (potentially) operable liver metastasis.

RESULTS

Immune checkpoint blockade by the programmed cell death 1 (PD-1) receptor inhibitors nivolumab and pembrolizumab and the cytotoxic T cell-associated protein 4 (CTLA-4) inhibitor ipilimumab has shown good results in both early-stage and advanced CRC. The effects of immune checkpoint inhibitors have so far been demonstrated in small phase I/II studies and predominantly in treatment-refractory stage IV disease with defect Mismatch repair (dMMR). However, recent data from phase I/II (NICHE-1) studies suggest an upfront role for immunotherapy in operable stage I-III disease. By blocking crucial immune checkpoints, cytotoxic T cells are activated and release cytotoxic signals that initiate cancer cell destruction. The very high complete response rate in dMMR operable CRC with neoadjuvant immunotherapy with nivolumab and ipilimumab, and even partial pathological response in some patients with proficient MMR (pMMR) CRC, calls for further attention to patient selection for neoadjuvant treatment, beyond MMR status alone.

CONCLUSION

Early data on the effect of immunotherapy in CRC provide new strategic thinking of treatment options in CRC for both early-stage and advanced disease, with prospects for new trials.

Performance of two prognostic scores that incorporate genetic information to predict long-term outcomes following resection of colorectal cancer liver metastases: An external validation of the MD Anderson and JHH-MSK scores

INTRODUCTION

Two novel clinical risk scores (CRS) that incorporate KRAS mutation status were developed: modified CRS (mCRS) and GAME score. However, they have not been tested in large national and international cohorts. The aim of this study was to validate the prognostic discrimination utility and determine the clinical usefulness of the two novel CRS.

METHODS

Patients undergoing hepatectomy for CRLM (2000-2018) in 10 centers were included. The discriminatory abilities of mCRS, GAME, and Fong CRS were evaluated using Harrell's C-index and Akaike's Information Criterion.

RESULTS

In the entire cohort, the C-index of the GAME score (0.61) was significantly higher than those of Fong score (0.57) and mCRS (0.54), while the C-Index of mCRS was significantly lower than that of Fong score. When we compared the models in the various geographical regions, the C-index of GAME score was significantly higher than that of mCRS in North America, Europe, and South America. The AIC of Fong score, mCRS, and GAME score were 14 405, 14 447, and 14 319, respectively.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, using the largest and most heterogenous population of CRLM patients with known KRAS status, this independent, external validation demonstrated that the GAME score outperforms both the traditional Fong score and mCRS.