Is sex an independent prognostic factor in cutaneous head and neck melanoma?

Gradient differences of immunotherapy efficacy in metastatic melanoma related to sunlight exposure pattern: A population-based study

Background

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have revolutionized metastatic melanoma (MM) treatment in just a few years. Ultraviolet (UV) in sunlight is the most significant environmental cause of melanoma, which is considered to be the main reason for tumor mutation burden (TMB) increase in melanoma. High TMB usually predicts that PD-1 inhibitors are effective. The sunlight exposure pattern of MM might be a clinical feature that matches TMB. The relationship between sunlight exposure patterns and immunotherapy response in MM is unclear. This study aims to investigate the correlation between sunlight exposure patterns and immunotherapy response in MM and establish nomograms that predict 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS) rate.

Methods

We searched the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and enrolled MM cases from 2005-2016. According to the advent of ICIs in 2011, the era was divided into the non-ICIs era (2005-2010) and the ICIs era (2011-2016). Patients were divided into three cohorts according to the primary site sunlight exposure patterns: head and neck in the first cohort, trunk arms and legs in the second cohort, and acral sites in the third cohort. We compared survival differences for each cohort between the two eras, performed stratified analysis, established nomograms for predicting 3- and 5-year OS rate, and performed internal validation.

Results

Comparing the survival difference between the ICIs and non-ICIs era, head and neck melanoma showed the greatest improvement in survival, with 3- and 5-year OS rate increasing by 10.2% and 9.1%, respectively (P=0.00011). In trunk arms and legs melanoma, the 3- and 5-year OS rate increased by 4.6% and 3.9%, respectively (P<0.0001). There is no improvement in survival in acral melanoma (AM) between the two eras (P=0.78). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, area under the ROC curve (AUC) and calibration graphs show good discrimination and accuracy of nomograms. Decision curve analysis (DCA) suggests good clinical utility of nomograms.

Conclusions

Based on the classification of sunlight exposure patterns, there is a gradient difference in immunotherapy efficacy for MM. The degree of sunlight exposure is positively correlated with immunotherapy response. The nomograms are sufficiently accurate to predict 3- and 5-year OS rate for MM, allowing for individualized clinical decisions for future clinical work.

"Location of cutaneous malignant melanoma in Sweden 2004-2018 - mortality and sex differences"

BACKGROUND

Cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) is one of the most common causes of cancer-related death in Sweden. There is increasing evidence that localisation of the primary CMM lesion differs between sexes and is associated with different outcomes. However, definitive convincing data is lacking.

AIMS

To describe changes in the distribution of CMM anatomical location over time according to sex and determine differences in mortality by location.

METHOD

This is a retrospective nation-wide cohort study of all patients diagnosed with CMM in Sweden between 2004 and 2018. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using a multivariate cox regression model adjusting for age, sex, T-stage, multiple melanomas and comorbidities.

RESULTS

A total of 68,666 patients were included. In males, trunk CMM was the most common location (51% of all male CMM), with an increasing proportion over time. In females, lower extremity CMM had the largest proportion in 2004 (33%) followed by trunk CMM (27%). By 2018, trunk CMM became more common than lower extremity CMM in females. Upper and lower extremity CMMs had lower HR for all-cause mortality compared with trunk CMM (0.896 and 0.887, respectively, p<0.001), while head and neck CMM had higher HR compared with trunk CMM (1.090, p<0.001). Males had greater risk than females (HR 1.352, p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Head and neck CMMs were associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality, while both upper and lower extremity CMMs were associated with decreased risk. Both sexes had increasing proportions of trunk and upper extremity CMM over time, with corresponding decreases in lower extremity and, head and neck CMM.

Modified score function for monotone likelihood in the semiparametric mixture cure model

The cure fraction models are intended to analyze lifetime data from populations where some individuals are immune to the event under study, and allow a joint estimation of the distribution related to the cured and susceptible subjects, as opposed to the usual approach ignoring the cure rate. In situations involving small sample sizes with many censored times, the detection of nonfinite coefficients may arise via maximum likelihood. This phenomenon is commonly known as monotone likelihood (ML), occurring in the Cox and logistic regression models when many categorical and unbalanced covariates are present. An existing solution to prevent the issue is based on the Firth correction, originally developed to reduce the estimation bias. The method ensures finite estimates by penalizing the likelihood function. In the context of mixture cure models, the ML issue is rarely discussed in the literature; therefore, this topic can be seen as the first contribution of our paper. The second major contribution, not well addressed elsewhere, is the study of the ML issue in cure mixture modeling under the flexibility of a semiparametric framework to handle the baseline hazard. We derive the modified score function based on the Firth approach and explore finite sample size properties of the estimators via a Monte Carlo scheme. The simulation results indicate that the performance of coefficients related to the binary covariates are strongly affected to the imbalance degree. A real illustration, in the melanoma dataset, is discussed using a relatively novel data set collected in a Brazilian university hospital.

Sex- and Site-Related Significance in Cutaneous Head and Neck Melanoma

Cutaneous head and neck melanoma is a separate subgroup of cutaneous melanoma that has a worse prognosis than other primary sites. The aim of this article is to examine the significance of sex and site of primary lesion as additional risk factors. Primary localization distribution and metastatic disease in the neck in a retrospective cohort of 159 patients with cutaneous head and neck malignant melanoma were analyzed. Men develop primary melanoma more frequently than women in the left peripheral head and neck regions (P = .0364), as well as clinically visible and occult metastatic disease in the left side of the neck (P = .0138). Patients with clinically occult regional metastatic disease showed a significantly poorer survival rate than the rest of the group that underwent elective neck dissections (P = .0270). Left-sided disease in male patients may be an additional risk factor in cutaneous head and neck melanoma. Performing elective neck dissections in high-risk patients might identify patients with occult metastatic disease and worse prognosis but does not offer any significant therapeutic benefit.

Firth adjusted score function for monotone likelihood in the mixture cure fraction model

Models for situations where some individuals are long-term survivors, immune or non-susceptible to the event of interest, are extensively studied in biomedical research. Fitting a regression can be problematic in situations involving small sample sizes with high censoring rate, since the maximum likelihood estimates of some coefficients may be infinity. This phenomenon is called monotone likelihood, and it occurs in the presence of many categorical covariates, especially when one covariate level is not associated with any failure (in survival analysis) or when a categorical covariate perfectly predicts a binary response (in the logistic regression). A well known solution is an adaptation of the Firth method, originally created to reduce the estimation bias. The method provides a finite estimate by penalizing the likelihood function. Bias correction in the mixture cure model is a topic rarely discussed in the literature and it configures a central contribution of this work. In order to handle this point in such context, we propose to derive the adjusted score function based on the Firth method. An extensive Monte Carlo simulation study indicates good inference performance for the penalized maximum likelihood estimates. The analysis is illustrated through a real application involving patients with melanoma assisted at the Hospital das Clínicas/UFMG in Brazil. This is a relatively novel data set affected by the monotone likelihood issue and containing cured individuals.

Survival prediction in patients with cutaneous melanoma by tumour lymphangiogenesis

Objectives: Melanoma induces lymphangiogenesis by secreting lymphangiogenic growth factors. The aim of this study was to examine the role of tumour lymphangiogenesis in survival of patients with cutaneous melanoma. Methods: Immunostaining of one hundred melanoma specimens was done with lymphatic-specific antibody D2-40. The quantification of tumour lymphangiogenesis - lymphatic vessel density (LVD) and lymphatic vessel area (LVA) - was calculated by computer-assisted morphometric analysis. Results: High intratumoural LVD, high peritumoural LVD, male gender, greater tumour thickness and Clark level IV/V were significantly associated with shorter disease-free survival (p= 0.001, p= 0.004, p= 0.004, p= 0.000 and p= 0.008, respectively) and melanoma-specific survival (p= 0.002, p= 0.002, p= 0.001, p= 0.000 and p= 0.017, respectively), while the trunk melanoma site was significantly associated only with shorter disease-free survival (p= 0.033). No significant association of LVA with survival was found. At multivariate analysis, peritumoural LVD [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.143, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.097-4.189, p= 0.026)] and melanoma thickness (HR = 1.276, 95%CI 1.106-1.473, p= 0.001) were independent predictors of disease-free survival, while intratumoural LVD (HR = 3.446, 95%CI 1.465-8.109, p= 0.005), peritumoural LVD (HR = 2.742, 95%CI 1.313-5.725, p= 0.007) and gender (HR = 2.880, 95%CI 1.304-6.362, p= 0.009) were independent predictors of melanoma-specific survival. Conclusion: Тhis study shows that LVD enables better prediction of survival than melanoma thickness and other clinical-pathological parameters. Intratumoural LVD is the most significant predictor of melanoma-specific survival, while only peritumoural LVD has a significant impact on both, a disease-free survival and a melanoma-specific survival.

Predictors of occult lymph node metastasis in cutaneous head and neck melanoma

Objective

To use the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to verify the findings of a recent National Cancer Database (NCDB) study that identified factors predicting occult nodal involvement in cutaneous head and neck melanoma (CHNM) while identifying additional predictors of occult nodal metastasis and comparing two distinct cancer databases.

Methods

Cases of CHNM in the SEER database diagnosed between 2004 and 2014 were identified. Demographic information and oncologic data were obtained. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to identify factors associated with pathologic nodal positivity.

Results

There were 34002 patients with CHNM identified. Within this population, 16232 were clinically node-negative, 1090 of which were found to be pathologically node-positive. On multivariate analysis, factors associated with an increased risk of occult nodal metastasis included increasing depth of invasion (stepwise increase in adjusted odds ratio [OR]), nodular histology (aOR: 1.47 [95% CI: 1.21-1.80]), ulceration (aOR: 1.74 [95% CI: 1.48-2.05]), and mitoses (aOR: 1.86 [95% CI: 1.36-2.54]). Factors associated with a decreased risk of occult nodal metastasis included female sex (aOR: 0.80 [0.67-0.94]) and desmoplastic histology (aOR: 0.37 [95% CI: 0.24-0.59]). Between the SEER database and the NCDB, factors associated with occult nodal involvement were similar except for nodular histology and female sex, which did not demonstrate significance in the NCDB.

Conclusion

Regarding clinically node-negative CHNM, the SEER database and the NCDB have similarities in demographic information but differences in baseline population sizes and tumor characteristics that should be considered when comparing findings between the two databases.

Level of evidence

4.

Nomogram for predicting the survival of patients with malignant melanoma: A population analysis

The aim of the current study was to develop and validate a nomogram based on a large population to estimate the 3- and 5-year survival rates of patients with malignant melanoma (MM). Patients were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database and randomly divided into the training and validation cohorts. A nomogram was developed, and was used to assess the accuracy of the model. Independent prognostic factors associated with overall survival (OS) rate were identified through multivariate analysis, and were included in the internal validation of the nomogram. The nomogram provided high C-indexes for the training cohort [area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.877 for 3-year OS rate and 0.872 for 5-year OS rate] and the validation cohort (AUC of 0.880 for 3-year OS rate and 0.874 for 5-year OS rate), indicating that the model had good discrimination ability. Calibration plots showed that the predicted 3- and 5-year OS rates probabilities for the training and validation groups were almost identical to the actual observations. The 3- and 5-year decision curves indicated net benefits for both the training and validation cohorts. The nomogram may aid clinicians to provide more accurate prognosis prediction in patient consultations and more personalized postoperative management plans.

Postbiopsy Pigmentation is Prognostic in Head and Neck Melanoma

PURPOSE

To assess postbiopsy pigmentation (PBP) as a prognostic feature in patients with cutaneous head and neck (H&N) melanoma.

METHODS

Retrospective review of patients undergoing sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) for H&N melanoma (1998-2018). PBP was defined as visible remaining pigment at the scar or biopsy site that was documented on physical exam by both a medical oncologist and a surgeon at initial consultation. Variables associated with disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were analyzed using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

Among 300 patients, 34.3% (n = 103) had PBP and 44.7% (n = 134) had microscopic residual disease on final pathology after wide local excision. Prognostic factors associated with DFS included advanced age, tumor depth, ulceration, PBP, and positive SLNB (p < 0.05). Patients with PBP fared worse than their counterparts without PBP in 5-year DFS [44.1% (31.1-56.3%) vs. 73.0% (64.1-80.0%); p < 0.001] and 5-year OS [65.0% (50.0-76.6%) vs. 83.6% (75.7-89.2%); p = 0.005]. After multivariable adjustment, PBP remained associated with shorter DFS [hazard ratio (HR) 1.72, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-2.93; p = 0.047], but was not prognostic of OS.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with H&N melanoma, PBP is associated with significantly shorter DFS. Patients with PBP may warrant greater consideration for SLNB and closer postoperative surveillance.

Is imaging of the brain necessary at diagnosis for cutaneous head and neck melanomas?

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the frequency of brain metastasis at the time of diagnosis for patients with cutaneous head and neck melanoma (CHNM).

METHODS

Patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were included from 2010 to 2014 based on a diagnosis of CHNM using ICD O-3 histology codes and primary site location documentation. Patients were also included if they had a "yes" or "no" documented in the "Mets at Dx-Brain" category.

RESULTS

In this study, 46 out of 19,066 (0.2%) patients diagnosed with CHNM presented with brain metastasis at diagnosis. Of the 19,066 patients, 14,124 (74.1%) were male. Caucasian race was noted in 18,299 cases (96.0%). 16.8% of patients with AJCC 7 Stage IV/M1 CHNM had brain metastasis at the time of diagnosis as compared to 0% in Stage I-III/M0 lesions (p < .001).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The 2018 NCCN guidelines recommend healthcare providers consider ordering a baseline brain MRI for patients with stage IIIC or greater melanoma. This study demonstrates the very low frequency of brain metastasis at time of diagnosis in patients with CHNM and supports the NCCN recommendations demonstrating that only very advanced stages of CHNM require baseline brain imaging.

Spindle cell melanoma: Incidence and survival, 1973-2017

Spindle cell melanoma (SCM) is a rare morphological subtype of melanoma, which is relatively uncharacterized. The aim of the present study was to investigate the incidence of SCM, its general demographics, basic clinico-pathologic features, treatment outcomes and disease-specific prognostic factors. SCM cases were sampled from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program (1973–2017). A total of 4761 SCM cases were identified, with a median age of 66 years. The female:male ratio was 0.62:1. Statistically significant overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) rate differences were identified depending on age, sex, ethnicity, tumor location, T stage, N stage, M stage, pathological grade, AJCC stage, SEER stages and surgical treatment (P<0.05). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that age >66 years, T3+T4 stage disease, positive N stage and SEER historic stage of regional and distant metastasis tumor were associated with poor DSS and OS rates. In summary, SCM was most common in Caucasian people of 60~80 years of age with a predominance in males. Patient's age, ethnicity, T stage, N stage, and SEER historic stage were identified as independent prognostic factors of SCM in terms of DSS and OS.

A Case-Control Study of the Genetic Variability in Reactive Oxygen Species-Metabolizing Enzymes in Melanoma Risk

Recent studies have shown that ultraviolet (UV)-induced chemiexcitation of melanin fragments leads to DNA damage; and chemiexcitation of melanin fragments requires reactive oxygen species (ROS), as ROS excite an electron in the melanin fragments. In addition, ROS also cause DNA damages on their own. We hypothesized that ROS producing and metabolizing enzymes were major contributors in UV-driven melanomas. In this case-control study of 349 participants, we genotyped 23 prioritized single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide phosphate (NADPH) oxidases 1 and 4 (NOX1 and NOX4, respectively), CYBA, RAC1, superoxide dismutases (SOD1, SOD2, and SOD3) and catalase (CAT), and analyzed their associated melanoma risk. Five SNPs, namely rs1049255 (CYBA), rs4673 (CYBA), rs10951982 (RAC1), rs8031 (SOD2), and rs2536512 (SOD3), exhibited significant genotypic frequency differences between melanoma cases and healthy controls. In simple logistic regression, RAC1 rs10951982 (odds ratio (OR) 8.98, 95% confidence interval (CI): 5.08 to 16.44; p < 0.001) reached universal significance (p = 0.002) and the minor alleles were associated with increased risk of melanoma. In contrast, minor alleles in SOD2 rs8031 (OR 0.16, 95% CI: 0.06 to 0.39; p < 0.001) and SOD3 rs2536512 (OR 0.08, 95% CI: 0.01 to 0.31; p = 0.001) were associated with reduced risk of melanoma. In multivariate logistic regression, RAC1 rs10951982 (OR 6.15, 95% CI: 2.98 to 13.41; p < 0.001) remained significantly associated with increased risk of melanoma. Our results highlighted the importance of RAC1, SOD2, and SOD3 variants in the risk of melanoma.

Survival of cutaneous melanoma based on sex, age, and stage in the United States, 1992-2011

Women diagnosed with cutaneous melanoma have a survival advantage compared to men, which has been hypothesized to be due to difference in behavior and/or biology (sex hormones). It remains controversial whether this advantage is dependent on age or stage of disease. We sought to compare melanoma-specific survival between females in pre, peri, and postmenopausal age groups to males in the same age group, adjusting for stage of disease. This is a retrospective population-based cohort study using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Patients diagnosed from 1 January 1992 through 31 January 2011 with primary invasive cutaneous melanoma were included in our cohort. Melanoma-specific survival was the main outcome studied. Of the 106,511 subjects that were included, 45% were female. Females in all age groups (18-45, 46-54, and ≥55) with localized and regional disease, were less likely to die from melanoma compared to males in the same age group. Among patients with localized and regional disease, the relative risk of death due to melanoma increased with advancing age at diagnosis; this increase was more pronounced among females than males. In contrast, we observed no female survival advantage among patients with distant disease and no effect of age on relative risk of death from melanoma. Females with localized and regional melanoma have a decreased risk of death compared to males within all age groups. Our data show no differences in survival between men and women with metastatic melanoma, indicating that the influence of sex on survival is limited to early stage disease but not confined to pre or perimenopausal age groups.

Geographic region: Does it matter in cutaneous melanoma of the head and neck?

OBJECTIVES/HYPOTHESIS

The head and neck are two of the most common locations for cutaneous melanoma. We present the first population-based analysis of geographic differences in anatomic subsite, clinicopathologic and demographical traits, histopathologic subtype, treatment modality, and disease-specific survival (DSS) of cutaneous head and neck melanoma (CHNM).

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective database analysis.

METHODS

The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database was queried for cases of CHNM reported between 2000 and 2013. Patients were grouped into East, Midwest, South, and West regions of the United States. Overall incidence, demographic traits, primary tumor site, clinicopathologic traits, histopathologic subtype, treatment modality, and DSS were compared among regions.

RESULTS

There were 49,365 patients with CHNM identified. The West (4.60) and the South (4.42) had significantly higher incidence (per 100,000) than the East (3.84) and Midwest (3.65) (P < .05). DSS was significantly different among regions (P < .0066). The East (5 years: 89.4%, 10 years: 84.1%) had the highest DSS rate, and the South (5 years: 87.0%, 10 years: 81.8%) had the lowest DSS rate. The Midwest (5 years: 88.4%, 10 years: 84.3%) and West (5 years: 88.3%, 10 years: 83.5%) had intermediate DSS. On multivariate analysis, the South had an elevated hazard ratio (1.17, 95% confidence interval: 1.05-1.30) when compared to the West.

CONCLUSIONS

Geographic region may play a significant role in CHNM. Incidence is higher in the South and the West. Incidence, histologic subtype, treatment modality, and DSS vary among regions. DSS is lower in the South than the West, even after accounting for other major prognostic factors.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

4. Laryngoscope, 127:2763-2769, 2017.

The Prognostic Value of Age, Sex, and Subsite in Cutaneous Head and Neck Melanoma: A Clinical Review of Recent Literature

Context

Cutaneous head and neck melanoma is a challenging disease owing to its aggressive nature and often times advanced stage at presentation. Age, sex, and subsite are three prognostic indicators which can be determined prior to treatment or testing, and can allow the practitioner to counsel the patient before initiating therapy.

Evidence Acquisition

A PubMed search was conducted utilizing various terms relating to the subject matter. Articles over the past 25 years were analyzed and appropriately selected for review.

Results

It appears that patients older than 65 have a decreased overall 5 year survival compared to their younger counterparts. Male patients have poorer prognosis compared to female patients as noted by the decreased overall survival, decreased disease specific survival, and shorter time to distant metastasis. Scalp subsite was most uniformly accepted as having the worst prognosis in the head and neck, and may even serve as an independent prognostic indicator.

Conclusions

Advanced age, male sex, and scalp subsite all portend poor prognosis in patients with cutaneous head and neck melanoma.

The clinical significance of patients' sex in chronic lymphocytic leukemia

We examined the prognostic influence of gender in chronic lymphocytic leukemia. Data from four randomized trials (involving 1821 patients) and three registration studies of stage-A disease (involving 1299 patients) were analyzed. Overall survival at 10 years was better for women than men in all trials (27% versus 15%; P=0.0001) and in the registration series (55% versus 43%; P<0.0001). More women than men in the trials were Binet stage A-progressive (26% versus 15%), but gender was an independent predictor of survival in multivariate analysis of clinical variables (P<0.0001). Women responded better to treatment (overall response 83%) than men (71%; P<0.0001), within each stage and age group, although fewer women than men received the full treatment dose (79% versus 85%; P=0.01). Women were more likely than men to experience toxicity (85% versus 78%, P=0.01), particularly gastro-intestinal toxicity (57% versus 42%, P<0.0001). Laboratory markers in the LRF CLL4 trial showed a significantly lower incidence in women than men of unmutated IGHV genes, raised beta-2 microglobulin, CD38 and Zap-70 positivity and TP53 deletions/mutations and/or 11q deletions. We also highlight the higher male:female ratios in randomized trials versus studies of early chronic lymphocytic leukemia and monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis. Chronic lymphocytic leukemia in women runs a more benign clinical course than in men. Gender was also an independent predictor of response, suggesting that pharmacokinetic differences between the sexes and a possible effect of estrogens may contribute to the better outcome. Understanding the reasons for the different outcome by gender may improve patients' management. (LRF CLL4 controlled-trials.com identifier: ISRCTN58585610).