Prediction of Alcohol Relapse Among Liver Transplant Candidates With Less Than 6 Months of Abstinence Using the High-Risk Alcoholism Relapse Score

Alcohol Use in Liver Transplant Recipients With Alcohol-related Liver Disease: A Comparative Assessment of Relapse Prediction Models

BACKGROUND

The selection of liver transplant (LT) candidates with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) is influenced by the risk of alcohol relapse (AR), yet the ability to predict AR is limited. We evaluate psychosocial factors associated with post-LT AR and compare the performance of high-risk alcoholism risk (HRAR), sustained alcohol use post-LT (SALT), and the Stanford Integrated Psychosocial Assessment for Transplantation (SIPAT) scores in predicting relapse.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of ALD patients undergoing LT from 2015 to 2021 at a single US transplant center was performed. Risk factors associated with post-LT AR were evaluated and test characteristics of 3 prediction models were compared.

RESULTS

Of 219 ALD LT recipients, 23 (11%) had AR during a median study follow-up of 37.5 mo. On multivariate analysis, comorbid psychiatric illness (odds ratio 5.22) and continued alcohol use after advice from a health care provider (odds ratio 3.8) were found to be significantly associated with post-LT AR. On sensitivity analysis, SIPAT of 30 was optimal on discriminating between ALD LT recipients with and without post-LT AR. SIPAT outperformed both the HRAR and SALT scores (c-statistic 0.67 versus 0.59 and 0.62, respectively) in identifying post-LT AR. However, all scores had poor positive predictive value (<25%).

CONCLUSIONS

AR after LT is associated with comorbid psychiatric illness and lack of heeding health care provider advice to abstain from alcohol. Although SIPAT outperformed the HRAR and SALT scores in predicting AR, all are poor predictors. The current tools to predict post-LT AR should not be used to exclude LT candidacy.

Liver Transplantation 2023: Status Report, Current and Future Challenges

Liver transplantation offers live-saving therapy for patients with complications of cirrhosis and stage T2 hepatocellular carcinoma. The demand for organs far outstrips the supply, and innovations aimed at increasing the number of usable deceased donors as well as alternative donor sources are a major focus. The etiologies of cirrhosis are shifting over time, with more need for transplantation among patients with alcohol-associated liver disease and nonalcoholic/metabolic fatty liver disease and less for viral hepatitis, although hepatitis B remains an important indication for transplant in countries with high endemicity. The rise in transplantation for alcohol-associated liver disease and nonalcoholic/metabolic fatty liver disease has brought attention to how patients are selected for transplantation and the strategies needed to prevent recurrent disease. In this review, we present a status report on the most pressing topics in liver transplantation and future challenges.

How to Optimize the Results of Liver Transplantation for Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure

Cirrhotic patients who developed a decompensation episode requiring an admission to an intensive care unit are not equal in term of prognosis. This led to the definition of a syndrome, acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), marked by the severity of systemic inflammation, the development of organ failures and a high short-term mortality. The most common underlying liver etiology is related to acute alcohol hepatitis in western countries and to HBV or HCV cirrhosis in eastern countries. Twenty-eight and 90-days high mortality rates are well linked to the number of organ failure and defined, merely ten years ago, by a modified SOFA score. ACLF is a dynamic syndrome and grading can vary from hospital admission. ACLF grading between day 3-7 of admission is more accurate for determining outcome. ACLF-3 patients with ≥3 organ failures remain very challenging with >75% mortality rate. Despite recent advances in the medical management of critically ill cirrhotic patients, the prognosis of these patients remains poor. Currently, the main effective treatment is an urgent liver transplantation (LT) which is performed in a very selected patients eligible to transplant given the limited availability of organ donors and the low post-transplant survival rates reported in earlier studies. Recently, large retrospective multicenter studies and registries showed an improved 1-year post-transplant survival rate >83% in several transplant centers. Nevertheless, only few proportions of the ACLF-2 and ACLF-3 patients are transplanted representing 0-10% of most liver transplant programs. A careful selection of these patients (excluding major comorbidities i.e., older age, addictology criteria, severe malnutrition…) and optimal timing for transplant (infection control, hemodynamic stability, low oxygen and vasopressor requirements) are associated with excellent post-transplant survival rate.

Liver transplantation in alcohol-associated liver disease: ensuring equity through new processes

Worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic, alcohol use is one of the leading causes of preventable death in the US, in large part due to alcohol-associated liver disease. Throughout history, liver transplantation for this population has been controversial, and many policies and regulations have existed to limit access to lifesaving transplant for patients who use alcohol. In recent years, the rates of liver transplantation for patients with alcohol-associated liver disease have increased dramatically; however, disparities persist. For instance, many criteria used in evaluation for transplant listing, such as social support and prior knowledge of the harms of alcohol use, are not evidence based and may selectively disadvantage patients with alcohol use disorder. In addition, few transplant providers have adequate training in the treatment of alcohol use disorder, and few transplant centers offer specialized addiction treatment. Finally, current approaches to liver transplantation would benefit from adopting principles of harm reduction, which have demonstrated efficacy in the realm of addiction medicine for years. As we look toward the future, we must emphasize the use of evidence-based measures in selecting patients for listing, ensure access to high-quality addiction care for all patients pretransplant and posttransplant, and adopt harm reduction beliefs to better address relapse when it inevitably occurs. We believe that only by addressing each of these issues will we be able to ensure a more equitable distribution of resources in liver transplantation for all patients.

An Assessment of the Psychosocial Evaluation for Early Liver Transplantation in Patients With Acute Alcoholic Hepatitis in the Context of Alcohol Use Disorder, a Case-Control Study

Background:

Severe acute alcoholic hepatitis (AAH) has an extremely poor prognosis with a high short term mortality rate. As a result, many centers, including our own, have allowed transplant patients to be listed for transplantation prior to achieving 6-months of sobriety. Several scoring systems, designed to target patients with a minimal period of sobriety, have been proposed to identify patients with alcohol use disorder (AUD), who would be predisposed to relapse after liver transplantation. We investigated whether these scoring systems corroborated the results of the non-structured selection criteria used by our center regarding decision to list for transplant.

Methods:

We conducted a retrospective case-control study of 11 patients who underwent early liver transplantation for AAH matched with 11 controls who were declined secondary to low insight into AUD. Blinded raters confirmed the severity of the diagnosis of DSM-5 and scored the patients on a variety of structured psychometric scales used to predict alcohol relapse. These included the High Risk for Alcohol Relapse Scale (HRAR), Stanford Integrated Psychosocial Assessment Tool (SIPAT), Alcohol Relapse Risk Assessment (ARRA), Hopkins Psychosocial Scale (HPSS), Michigan Alcoholism Prognosis Score (MAPS), Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test -Consumption (AUDIT-C), and Sustained Alcohol Use Post-Liver Transplant (SALT) scales. All patients who underwent transplantation were followed for harmful and non-harmful drinking until the end of the study period.

Results:

The transplant recipients had significantly favorable MAPS, HRAR, SIPAT, ARRA, and HPSS scores with cutoffs that matched their previous research. The SALT and AUDIT-C scores were not predictive of our selection of patients for transplantation. Despite an expedited evaluation and no significant period of sobriety, our case cohort had a 30% relapse to harmful drinking after an average of 6.6 years (5-8.5 years) of follow-up.

Discussion:

Despite the rapid assessment and the short to no period of sobriety, the patient cohort demonstrated a 30% relapse to harmful drinking, consistent with the 20% to 30% relapse to drinking rate reported after liver transplantation for all forms of alcoholic liver disease. Average scores from MAPS, HRAR, SIPAT, ARRA, and HPSS corroborated our current stratification procedures, with lower mean risk scores found in the transplanted group.

Conclusion:

Patients with AUD and severe AAH who obtain new insight into their disease and posses other favorable psychosocial factors have low rates of AUD relapse post-liver-transplantation. The psychosocial selection criteria for patients with alcoholic hepatitis in our institution are consistent with 4 of the 5 scoring systems investigated in their prediction of sobriety post-transplant.

Identification of Quantifiable Predictors of Relapse in Patients with Alcohol-Associated Liver Disease

Abstinence in patients with alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) reduces mortality. Most predictors of relapse are not quantifiable, preventing objective analysis of relapse risk and targeted intervention to improve clinical outcomes. We prospectively enrolled patients with ALD from November 2016 to December 2019 and administered a survey with two previously published scales to assess insight into alcohol-use disorder (Hanil Alcohol Insight Scale [HAIS]) and social support (Community Assessment Inventory Scale [CAIS]). Relapse was assessed using surveys and metabolite testing. Unadjusted and prespecified adjusted regression analyses identified predictors of relapse. We enrolled 81% of eligible patients (n = 136), of whom 58 had follow-up data available at the time of analysis. Over a median follow-up of 1 year (interquartile range: 0.5-1.4), 10 patients relapsed (17%). Patients who relapsed were more likely to continue drinking despite either a diagnosis of liver disease or a decompensating event, and were less likely to have been transplanted (all P < 0.05). In unadjusted regression, the HAIS and the "support inside the home" subcategory of the CAIS were predictive of relapse, with odds ratio (OR) = 0.84 (95% confidence interval 0.72-0.97) and 0.85 (0.74-0.97). In adjusted regression, the HAIS was no longer significant, with adjusted OR = 0.70 (0.49-1.00, P = 0.05), whereas the "support inside the home' subcategory of CAIS remained significant, with adjusted OR = 0.69 (0.51-0.92, P = 0.01). Conclusions: Risk factors for relapse in patients with ALD were identified and quantified prospectively, suggesting opportunities to objectively identify patients at risk for relapse as well as to intervene to prevent relapse.

Direct Alcohol Biomarkers Prediction Capacity on Relapse and Mortality in Liver Transplantation Candidates: A Follow-Up Study

Liver transplantation is a complex procedure that requires multiple evaluations, including abstinence monitorization. While literature assessing the impact of different variables on relapse, survival, and graft loss exists, little is known about the predictive capacity of direct alcohol biomarkers. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate the prediction capacity of direct alcohol biomarkers regarding patient survival and clinical relapse. We hypothesized that patients screening positive for any of the experimental biomarkers would show an increased risk of clinical alcohol relapse and death. We conducted a retrospective data recollection from medical files of patients awaiting liver transplantation, who were at baseline screened with Peth, EtG in hair and urine, and EtS. We tested the prediction capacity of the biomarkers with two Cox-regression models. A total of 50 patients were included (84% men, mean age 59 years (SD = 6)). Biomarkers at baseline were positive in 18 patients. The mean follow-up time for this study was 26 months (SD = 10.4). Twelve patients died, liver transplantation was carried out in 12 patients, and clinical relapse was observed in eight patients. The only significant covariate in the Cox-regression models was age with clinical relapse, with younger patients being at greater risk of relapse. This study could not find a significant prediction capacity of direct alcohol biomarkers for mortality or clinical relapse during follow-up. Higher sample sizes might be needed to detect statistically significant differences. All in all, we believe that direct alcohol biomarkers should be widely used in liver transplantation settings due to their high sensitivity for the detection of recent drinking.

Alcohol use disorder and the liver

Alcohol use disorders (AUD) cause a range of physical harms, but the major cause of alcohol-related mortality is alcohol-related liver disease (ALD), in some countries accounting for almost 90% of alcohol-related deaths. The risk of ALD has an exponential relationship with increasing alcohol consumption, but is also associated with genetic factors, other life-style factors and social deprivation. ALD includes a spectrum of progressive pathology, from liver steatosis to fibrosis and liver cirrhosis. There are no specific treatments for liver cirrhosis, but abstinence from alcohol is key to limit progression of the disease. Over time, cirrhosis can progress (often silently) to decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Liver transplantation may be suitable for patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis and may also be used as a curative intervention for HCC, but only for a few selected patients, and complete abstinence is a prerequisite. Patients with AUD are also at risk of developing alcoholic hepatitis, which has a high mortality and limited evidence for effective therapies. There is a strong evidence base for the effectiveness of psychosocial and pharmacological interventions for AUD, but very few of these have been trialled in patients with comorbid ALD. Integrated specialist alcohol and hepatology collaborations are required to develop interventions and pathways for patients with ALD and ongoing AUD.

Incidence and Risk Factors of Alcohol Relapse after Liver Transplantation: Analysis of Pre-Transplant Abstinence and Psychosocial Features

Alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) is a common indication for liver transplantation (LT). Alcohol relapse after LT is associated with graft loss and worse prognosis. Over the past 20 years, the number and prevalence of living donor liver transplantations (LDLTs) have increased in Taiwan. The aims of this retrospective study are to analyze the incidence and risk factors of alcohol relapse after LT at a single center in Taiwan. A total of 98 patients with ALD who underwent LT from January 2012 to December 2018 were retrospectively evaluated by chart review. Pre-transplant characteristics as well as psychosocial and alcoholic history were used to test the possible associations among the risk factors studied and post-LT alcohol relapse. The incidence of post-LT alcohol relapse was 16.3%. The median duration of alcohol relapse after liver transplantation was 28.1 months (range: 1–89.4 months). The cumulative incidence was 12% and 19% at 1 year and 3 years after LT, respectively. The most powerful risk factors were a pre-LT abstinence period less than 6 months and younger age of starting alcohol. For predicting alcohol relapse, the accuracy rate of abstinence less than 6 months was up to 83.7%. In summary, pre-abstinence period plays a role in predicting post-LT alcohol relapse. Post-LT interventions should be considered specifically for the patients with short abstinence period. Long-term follow-up, patient-centered counseling, and enhancement of healthy lifestyle are suggested to prevent alcohol relapse.

Assessment of Canadian policies regarding liver transplant candidacy of people who use alcohol, tobacco, cannabis, and opiates

BACKGROUND

When last assessed in 2013, all Canadian liver transplant programs required 6 months of abstinence from alcohol. New studies have questioned the validity of this policy. Moreover, with recreational cannabis now legal in Canada, more transplant candidates may use cannabis. Given these changes, our objective was to obtain an understanding of current Canadian practices regarding liver transplantation and candidates with addiction or alcohol, tobacco, cannabis, or opiate use.

METHODS

Electronic surveys were distributed to the medical directors of all seven adult liver transplant programs in Canada. Questions were based on either a Likert-scale ranking or free response. The complete data set was aggregated to provide a national perspective on this topic and ensure each individual program remained anonymous.

RESULTS

All seven programs responded to the survey. Of these programs, 43% always require 6-month abstinence from alcohol, 29% usually require it, and 14% sometimes require it. Formal alcohol rehabilitation is mandatory in two programs. The majority (57%) of programs never or rarely consider transplant for patients with acute alcoholic hepatitis; 29% require smoking cessation before consideration for transplant; and 71% felt that cannabis use is rarely or never a contraindication to liver transplantation.

CONCLUSIONS

Significantly more Canadian programs now perform liver transplant for patients who have less than 6 months abstinence from alcohol, and alcoholic hepatitis is no longer an absolute contraindication in Canada. Policies on smoking and opiates are quite variable. Further study and discussion are critical for development of national policies to obtain equitable access to liver transplant for all.

Increase in Alcoholic Hepatitis as an Etiology for Liver Transplantation in the United States: A 2004-2018 Analysis

Background.

Changing opinions on the alcohol abstinence requirement have led to increased liver transplantation (LT) for alcoholic hepatitis (AH). We aimed to determine the trend in LT for AH in the United States and overall and graft survival rates.

Methods.

Adult liver-alone and liver-kidney registrations added to the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network waiting list between 2004 and 2018 were divided into 3 periods (2004–2009, 2010–2013, 2014–2018). Kaplan-Meier survival models illustrated patient and graft survival.

Results.

Between 2004 and 2018, 529 AH patients were registered for and 254 received LT. By periods, 116, 73, and 340 patients were registered for and 49, 17, and 188 patients received LT, respectively, indicating a increase in LT for AH from 2014 to 2018. Yearly registrants from 2014 to 2018 were 32, 47, 51, 70, and 140, and recipients were 16, 24, 24, 38, and 88, respectively, indicating increases of 338% and 450% in registrants and recipients, respectively, since 2014. AH patients had the highest 1- and 3-year posttransplant survival (93.2% and 87.3%, respectively) and graft survival (90.4% and 84.8%, respectively) comparing to other LT recipients.

Conclusions.

LT for AH in the United States is at an all-time high with an increased overall patient and graft survival.

Active Smoking Before Liver Transplantation in Patients with Alcohol Use Disorder: Risk Factors and Outcomes

Tobacco use is more prevalent among alcohol liver disease (ALD) transplant patients and exerts harmful effects to the patient and to the graft. The aims of this study were to examine the impact of smoking status (nonsmoker, ex-smoker, active smoker) on patient survival and clinical outcomes, and to assess risk factors for active smoking before and after liver transplant (LT). An observational retrospective cohort study with 314 ALD patients undergoing LT from January 2004 to April 2016. Recipients were followed until April 2017 or death. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to assess risk of mortality according to smoking status before LT. Smokers had a 79% higher risk of dying than those who had never smoked or quit smoking before LT. Ex-smokers had a greater survival probability (96.2%, 93.8%, 86.9%, and 83.1% at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years after LT) than active smokers until LT (96.0%, 85.6%, 80.0%, and 70.4%). Active smokers before LT with poor toxicity awareness had more than a twofold higher risk of mortality (Cox HR = 2.20, 95% CI: 1.05-4.58, p = 0.04) than ex-smokers. Younger age (OR = 94), higher Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) (OR = 1.06), and comorbid substance use disorder (OR = 2.35) were predictors of smoking until LT. Six months or less of alcohol abstinence (OR = 3.23), and comorbid substance use disorder (OR = 4.87) were predictors of active smoking after LT. Quitting smoking before transplantation improved survival. Evidence based smoking cessation interventions should be offered before and after LT.