Modeling the effect of Fangcang shelter hospitals on the control of COVID-19 epidemic

Impact of an ICU bed capacity optimisation method on the average length of stay and average cost of hospitalisation following implementation of China's open policy with respect to COVID-19: a difference-in-differences analysis based on information management system data from a tertiary hospital in southwest China

OBJECTIVES

Following the implementation of China's open policy with respect to COVID-19 on 7 December 2022, the influx of patients with infectious diseases has surged rapidly, necessitating hospitals to adopt temporary requisition and modification of ward beds to optimise hospital bed capacity and alleviate the burden of overcrowded patients. This study aims to investigate the effect of an intensive care unit (ICU) bed capacity optimisation method on the average length of stay (ALS) and average cost of hospitalisation (ACH) after the open policy of COVID-19 in China.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A difference-in-differences (DID) approach is employed to analyse and compare the ALS and ACH of patients in four modified ICUs and eight non-modified ICUs within a tertiary hospital located in southwest China. The analysis spans 2 months before and after the open policy, specifically from 5 October 2022 to 6 December 2022, and 7 December 2022 to 6 February 2023.

PARTICIPANTS

We used the daily data extracted from the hospital's information management system for a total of 5944 patients admitted by the outpatient and emergency access during the 2-month periods before and after the release of the open policy in China.

RESULTS

The findings indicate that the ICU bed optimisation method implemented by the tertiary hospital led to a significant reduction in ALS (HR -0.6764, 95% CI -1.0328 to -0.3201, p=0.000) and ACH (HR -0.2336, 95% CI -0.4741 to -0.0068, p=0.057) among ICU patients after implementation of the open policy. These results were robust across various sensitivity analyses. However, the effect of the optimisation method exhibits heterogeneity among patients admitted through the outpatient and emergency channels.

CONCLUSIONS

This study corroborates a significant positive impact of ICU bed optimisation in mitigating the shortage of medical resources following an epidemic outbreak. The findings hold theoretical and practical implications for identifying effective emergency coordination strategies in managing hospital bed resources during sudden public health emergency events. These insights contribute to the advancement of resource management practices and the promotion of experiences in dealing with public health emergencies.

Evaluating the impact of multiple factors on the control of COVID-19 epidemic: A modelling analysis using India as a case study

The currently ongoing COVID-19 outbreak remains a global health concern. Understanding the transmission modes of COVID-19 can help develop more effective prevention and control strategies. In this study, we devise a two-strain nonlinear dynamical model with the purpose to shed light on the effect of multiple factors on the outbreak of the epidemic. Our targeted model incorporates the simultaneous transmission of the mutant strain and wild strain, environmental transmission and the implementation of vaccination, in the context of shortage of essential medical resources. By using the nonlinear least-square method, the model is validated based on the daily case data of the second COVID-19 wave in India, which has triggered a heavy load of confirmed cases. We present the formula for the effective reproduction number and give an estimate of it over the time. By conducting Latin Hyperbolic Sampling (LHS), evaluating the partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCCs) and other sensitivity analysis, we have found that increasing the transmission probability in contact with the mutant strain, the proportion of infecteds with mutant strain, the ratio of probability of the vaccinated individuals being infected, or the indirect transmission rate, all could aggravate the outbreak by raising the total number of deaths. We also found that increasing the recovery rate of those infecteds with mutant strain while decreasing their disease-induced death rate, or raising the vaccination rate, both could alleviate the outbreak by reducing the deaths. Our results demonstrate that reducing the prevalence of the mutant strain, improving the clearance of the virus in the environment, and strengthening the ability to treat infected individuals are critical to mitigate and control the spread of COVID-19, especially in the resource-constrained regions.